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The “shadow governor”

Monday, Jun 9, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

There were lots and of losers during the state legislative session which ended last month. But there were a few winners, so let’s take a look at them.

First up, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner.

Never before has a political party nominated a gubernatorial candidate who’s had more impact on legislative session than did Rauner. The gazillionaire’s unlimited supply of money and his constant threats to “Shake up Springfield” clearly put legislators of both parties on edge all spring - going back to even before he won the primary.

The Democrats surely know in their guts that much of what Rauner says about Springfield ain’t false. The long-entrenched powers that be stifle innovation and prevent actual compromise. Why wasn’t a scaled back income tax hike ever once debated? Because the top dogs didn’t want to talk about it. End of story.

House Speaker Michael Madigan introduced numerous pieces of legislation designed with Rauner in mind, including a tax surcharge on millionaires, which ended up as a non-binding question on the November ballot.

Rauner railed repeatedly against extending the income tax hike, and Democrats had to back off. Instead, they opted to punt the ball until after the election. If Rauner had lost the primary to a weaker Republican, odds are that the tax hike extension would’ve had a better chance of passage. Of course, if Rauner goes on to defeat Gov. Pat Quinn, the massive fiscal hole the General Assembly has created will be his problem - which ultimately makes him a loser as well.

Rauner’s hand was seen everywhere. Cook County pension reform failed, many say, because Rauner pushed against it. The $1.1 billion end of session road construction/repair bill was reportedly only agreed to by Republicans after Rauner OK’d it, hoping to please the GOP-leaning road builders.

Rauner became almost a shadow governor this spring.

Senate President John Cullerton was another winner.

The Senate President’s electoral prowess meant once again that he could do pretty much anything he wanted. His 40 Democratic votes out of 59 total Senate seats gave him enough cushion to sit back and watch while Speaker Madigan struggled all year to deal with his own, smaller super-majority.

Cullerton stood his ground on the budget when the income tax hike extension fell apart and made sure his members’ top interests were taken care of, particularly with a small Medicaid expansion. He pushed back when Madigan tried to muscle through a major change in the way the Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum was administrated. He stood firm when pushed by Madigan to insert a requirement into the reauthorization of the court-stricken state eavesdropping law to require police to wear body cameras. He muscled through an innovative bill with his former chief of staff Sen. Andy Manar to fundamentally alter the way education is funded in Illinois. And out of all the Democrats under the dome, he appeared to be the least rattled by Rauner’s primary win. Cullerton may not have always made the best decisions (particularly when it came to ultimately killing the eavesdropping bill), but he appears to be coming into his own as a far more confident leader.

Legislative Republicans did pretty well too.

The weekend after the session ended, Kendall County Young Republican Chairman Brian Russell was busily scurrying to get himself onto the November ballot. He needed to collect 1,000 valid petition signatures in just three days to be appointed as the challenger to Sen. Linda Holmes (D-Aurora). Russell said he hadn’t heard it, but word was that Team Rauner had pledged six figures to back Russell’s candidacy.

Holmes’ district is pretty solidly Democratic, but this does show you why legislative Republicans have strutted around with renewed confidence since the March primary. They finally have a candidate at the top of the ticket who will not only give the Democrats a run for their money, but who will ensure that their own candidates have enough cash to compete. Holmes wasn’t even on the Republicans’ radar. They simply didn’t have the resources to challenge her.

But if Rauner wins this November, Republican legislators will have to do something completely different - vote for some pretty distasteful things to support their GOP governor or risk his considerable ire. For over a decade, the Republicans often sat back and hit their red buttons when it came time to pass important bills. But they’ll finally have to help govern if Rauner is in the mansion. That spectacle right there would almost be worth seeing Rauner win.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


62 Comments
  1. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    Spot on. Despite the fact, GOPers will have to make more difficult decisions and take tougher votes, this would be good for the party. It means that they have to reconnect strongly with their districts and help bring their constituency along. If this leads to better and more forward thinking legislation going forward, everybody wins but the clunky old broken machinery. It’s time for that to happen.


  2. - Walker - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Very smart column.

    The “shake up” is needed for Republican legislators maybe even more than for the Dems.


  3. - Robert the Bruce - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    Great column, I really enjoyed it. Amazing recap of the session.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    ===But if Rauner wins this November, Republican legislators will have to do something completely different - vote for some pretty distasteful things to support their GOP governor or risk his considerable ire.===

    With 1/3 of the ILGOP GA corrupt, the Tom Hagen style of Governing will lead to the Rauner PAC running candidates in the GOP primary with a new Litmus Test; do what Governor Rauner wants.

    The rich irony is the Rauner is not a Republican. Rauner is the calculated Republican.

    Rauner lives his life using money for clout and influence. Why wouldn’t Bruce Rauner govern “exactly” that way once sworn in?

    Rauner wouldn’t.

    This “shaking up Springfield” and “bringing back Illinois” will really be about extortion, intimidation, weakness, fears, and sadly hypocrisy. The disappointment the lemming voters will have and the disillusionment of the Raunerbots will be explained by Rauner as “baloney”, because any hypocrisy by Rauner is met with the “baloney” word.

    Time will tell if the education on both Rauners is working if we hear “baloney” more and more. It is up to the Unions, Quinn’s Crew, MJM, and these Ballot Initiatives to frame the Rauners to win the day…with that GOTV that exposed Rauner’s Crew’s largest and most glaring weakness.

    The Rauner shadow, today, is large, and dark, and cold. If Rauner becomes governor, that sunshine of being “the Man” will be white hot, and the hypocrisy will lead to the burns.


  5. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    “If this leads to better and more forward thinking legislation going forward, everybody wins but the clunky old broken machinery.”

    So with a Gov. Rauner we can look forward to a balanced budget approach that relies on some type of income tax hike, such as raising it over 3.75%? Will Republican constituents be on board with this, as well as the Chicago Tribune editorial board and gazillionaire think tanks and organizations like the Civic Committee?

    Will Rauner try to jam state workers for cuts and not raise the income tax? These are some of the questions that should be asked and answered before the election.


  6. - train111 - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    So why dump 6 figures into 42nd Senate where PJQ won by 8 points 4 years ago?
    If I were the ILGOP, and I’m not, why not dump eveything into 36 and 48 where you have a very good chance of flipping the seat, instead of into 42, where your chances are slim to none?


  7. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    David Orr, Maria Pappas and Joe Berrios get a free ride! Hat tip to Bruce Rauner.

    Rauner’s endorsed candidate for Cook County Republican Party, Aaron Del Mar, of Palatine Township failed to file a slate of candidates to challenge the Democratic incumbents. It would have taken approximately 5,400 signatures to qualify for the ballot.


  8. - DuPage - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    The spectacle of a state financial train wreck would not be worth it.


  9. - wordslinger - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    – Cullerton may not have always made the best decisions (particularly when it came to ultimately killing the eavesdropping bill), but he appears to be coming into his own as a far more confident leader.–

    Forty votes will do that for you. Plus, I think that caucus gets tired now and again of being portrayed by some in the media as water carriers for the alleged “all-powerful” MJM.


  10. - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    ==So why dump 6 figures into 42nd Senate where PJQ won by 8 points 4 years ago==

    Because if you have the money, you dump money anywhere you can to drive up turnout. A district with a candidate, even a huge underdog, can get more locals R’s to the polls than a district with no candidate. It’s not always about winning the district, but about doing better than expected.


  11. - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:58 am:

    ==The spectacle of a state financial train wreck would not be worth it.==

    We’ve already wrecked. At this point it’s more about how thorough do we want the crash investigation and remediation afterwards to be


  12. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 9:58 am:

    ===So why dump 6 figures into 42nd Senate where PJQ won by 8 points 4 years ago?===

    Turnout.

    If the 42nd underperformed in GOP voters voting, it’s important for Rauner’s Crew to “be” in districts where a GOP legislative candidate can Gin Up a greater GOP voting block than it has in the past.

    Remember; the Rauner Crew has ZERO apparatus of a GOTV. Get a candidate to run in the legislative districts becomes a GOTV by proxy, and a “cheap” one too.

    It’s all about turnout, a faux GOTV for Rauner, and a ROI that hopefully will be seen at the expense of a candidate being used by Rauner.

    That’s it.


  13. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    Bruce sent out a folksy letter (faked typewritten print) that included a grammatical error (see he’s just plain folks too!).

    One critical error was his praise for his Swedish grandfather who was a milk man — Oberweis commonality may not be helpful.

    Oh, yes! Rauner claims to be a Reagan Republican.
    Where was Ron on “social issues” as compared to Rauner?


  14. - Jack - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    –So why dump 6 figures into 42nd Senate where PJQ won by 8 points 4 years ago?
    If I were the ILGOP, and I’m not, why not dump eveything into 36 and 48 where you have a very good chance of flipping the seat, instead of into 42, where your chances are slim to none? –

    My guess is it’s because Holmes was the voice of the union in pension negotiations and tried to take down the charter school commission. Jacobs and Manar are moderate. Business groups have loved Jacobs since he was the only Dem to vote for their workers comp bill.


  15. - Milo - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Why all the howling about the ILGOP following Rauner in lockstep? Illinois democrats have been following Madigan for decades. How has that worked out?


  16. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Bruce Rauner is not a Reagan Republican.

    You can’t call out 1/3 of the legislative GOP as corrupt and agree with Republicans 80% of the time.

    Who are the 22 corrupt GOP legislators?


  17. - abc123 - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:11 am:

    Nice, balanced article, Dr. Jekyll.


  18. - Black Ivy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:15 am:

    I prefer Rauner serving as Shadow Governor any day over elected Governor Pat Quinn’s failed leadership. It is absolutely refereshing to see an “outsider” impact legislative business. Take note, Governor Quinn, take note. #leadingfromtheoutsidebenefitsillinois


  19. - Pensioner - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:17 am:

    Just wondering how a member of a super minority “struts”.


  20. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    Cullerton’s still number 2 despite his 40.


  21. - Rob Roy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I do not understand all the talk about his considerable wealth. Not one of you wouldn’t want to have his money. And if you say he’s buying the election, I don’t hear the same outcry on the Federal level because we all know the candidate with the most money almost always wins.


  22. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    ===I do not understand all the talk about his considerable wealth. Not one of you wouldn’t want to have his money. And if you say he’s buying the election, …===

    It’s not his money, it is the utter hypocrisy of spending his money to clout a child, to influence business decisions with career politicians, and muscling with money, while then explaining Rauner wants to “Shake Up” and “Bring Back” while living the life of an Insider and Corruptor, as described by Rauner.

    Please keep up…


  23. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    ==I do not understand all the talk about his considerable wealth==

    The talk is because he keeps portraying himself as just like you and me. Problem is most of us don’t have a gazillion dollars. He’s not like us, which is fine. I don’t care that he has money. Just don’t try to tell me you’re just like me.


  24. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:40 am:

    Politics - like nature - abhors a vacuum.

    The failure of Quinn’s proposal to make the tax increase permanent was probably the worst possible outcome for him and Democrats.

    Here’s where it gets tricky.

    The fall election will be a referendum on the tax for Quinn and for legislative targets.

    Democratic targets are opposing the tax increase. In fact, if I were them, I would take credit for standing up to Quinn and killing it.

    Either way, members of his own party will be campaigning against Quinn’s signature legislation in the districts that will have the highest turnout. Not helpful.


  25. - Apacolypse Now - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    =Remember; the Rauner Crew has ZERO apparatus of a GOTV. Get a candidate to run in the legislative districts becomes a GOTV by proxy, and a “cheap” one too.=
    Not true. Rauner campaign is holding meetings and educating people throughout the state at individual events and at County Republican precinct meetings.


  26. - CircularFiringSquad - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:51 am:

    We are truly blessed to have the genius of President Cullerton at the top of the heap to save PQ’s career. Bless you.

    Meanwhile it helped to have Madigan take affirmative positions on a number of issues for a change to see how folks liked that approach.

    And the best development, of course, is Mitt Rauner’s truly gifted approach to politics. He does make both Romney and Bill Brady look nimble. Mitt has calmed many. They now know poorly spent money will not win any thing.
    Plus the media has finally concluded they were playing Mitt’s game by asking about a plan. They are now writing about the disasters created by his shrewd biz decisions.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    ===Not true. Rauner campaign is holding meetings and educating people throughout the state at individual events and at County Republican precinct meetings.===

    Having meetings are fun! Are they serving pie? I love pie!

    Here is the reality.

    The word “apparatus” is critical. There is zero apparatus in place. For over a year, and failing in the Primary has shown, again, that wishing voters to the polls is not a GOTV.

    You can’t tell me in one breath that the infrastructure of the ILGOP is non-existent, and in another breath, tell me Rauner is using that infrastructure as the base, all the while calling 1/3 of legislative GOP members corrupt during these meetings.

    Proof is in the pudding, and the Primary clearly showed a complete lack of GOTV apparatus, and meeting within the non-existent ILGOP infrastructure is not building a GOTV winning apparatus. It ain’t.


  28. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:01 am:

    Rich and YDD are correct - as the campaigns are currently being played out.

    This election will be a referendum on Pat Quinn and his tax increases. It will be about him. What Pat Quinn has to do is show everyone that he is a good governor, that he can govern, that he can make tough decisions, and Pat Quinn needs to show that while the results are not always optimal, as governor he knows where we want to be as a state, and knows how to get there.

    Quinn needs to run this race as though it is all about him. He needs to give us a show until November on why he should be reelected on his own merits. Give people someone to vote for this year. That is what is missing from this race.


  29. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:03 am:

    Willy:

    The GOP has not had a GOTV apparatus since Ryan endorsed Jesse White for Secretary of State.

    Stop singling out Rauner. :)


  30. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    ==Give people someone to vote for this year. That is what is missing from this race. ==

    I think that’s what I’m missing. I don’t view this as a referendum at all (even though you keep pushing that mantra). I need Bruce Rauner to tell me what he would do as Governor. Simply not being Pat Quinn isn’t good enough.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:09 am:

    ===This election will be a referendum on Pat Quinn and his tax increases. ===

    Nope.

    “This election will be a referendum on the continuation of income tax, making it permenant.”

    That, is true.

    This election is NOT a referendum on Pat Quinn.

    There are two candidates.

    Hijacking other’s thoughts to drive an untrue idea that this is a referendum is blatantly false.

    You still selling this idea, after all the railing of Quinn by you that you suggest Quinn should run on his record is comical.


  32. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:10 am:

    Vanillaman:

    You keep saying that, and I keep disagreeing.

    Quinn needs to make this a contrast reminding voters that this is a choice between Quinn and Rauner.

    Simply attacking Rauner or simply touting Quinn’s achievements will not get Quinn across the finish line.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    - YDD -,

    True, back to GHR, but isn’t Rauner not a career politician, so getting volunteers to build that GOTV should be easy, lol


  34. - Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    Excellent column. Cullerton is coming into his own.


  35. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:22 am:

    “I need Bruce Rauner to tell me what he would do as Governor. Simply not being Pat Quinn isn’t good enough.”

    I agree. The SJ-R is echoing the concerns of some of us, that Rauner better start showing us his plams.

    http://www.sj-r.com/article/20140606/OPINION/140609583/10309/OPINION

    We are at a very critical time in our state’s history. This is a time when we need to see the plans and evaluate them.

    So what are the plans?


  36. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    Willie, with your utterly unbiased and rational approach, I’m truly amazed Crain’s hasn’t called you to share you cerebral approach on all of this- Complete maximized snark.

    You say he “failed” in the primary, yet he won. A massive well organized and extremely well funded offensive was launched against him, and he won. He may ‘fail’ again and win in November. Your insistence that he has no boots on the ground is false. You either don’t know they’re there or you are deliberately being misleading. Neither is becoming. His campaign looks more like the Obama effort than the Quinn (union-dependent)effort. It will all play out. It’s hard to read your posts anymore. They’re all the same regardless of what the news is.


  37. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:31 am:

    Willy:

    Getting volunteers and building a statewide grassroots organization is never easy. Which is why Rauner relied on paid circulators for his petition drive.

    It is easier when you are a volunteer yourself…people tend to know people who are like themselves. But I doubt Rauner has ever knocked on a door for himself, and I doubt he knows anyone well who has.

    When Reverend Meeks starts sending parishioners out door-to-door after church with literature, and they actually knock on doors, let me know.

    If the primary had played differently, Rauner could have asked Rutherford for help. That ain’t happening.

    If he weren’t such a social misfit, Rauner could rely on social conservative groups for his door-to-door evangelizing. Also not happening.

    If it were my campaign, I’d just swallow the bullet and hire 100 college Republicans for the summer…give them each three months, 50-80 precincts, and an iPhone and a gas card. Tell them to go find me some votes, and promise a $5K bonus to everyone who recruits 100 election day volunteers.

    Probably a $2 million operation, but what the hell. Less than 5 percent of his total budget.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:36 am:

    ===You say he “failed” in the primary, yet he won. A massive well organized and extremely well funded offensive was launched against him, and he won.===

    Run that same exact race against Quinn in the fall and you have Brady results.

    Wasn’t it you who said Rauner would be close to 50% before it was said and done, and in 5-6 weeks, 17 points were lost on Election Day, with zero GOTV. It’s a fail. Rauner showed a huge weakness, he did.

    ===Your insistence that he has no boots on the ground is false. You either don’t know they’re there or you are deliberately being misleading. Neither is becoming.===

    It is absolutely true that a statewide coordinated GOTV effort did not exist, and further, controlling turnout if ID’d “Plusses” from the boots to the HQ did not occur, period.

    ===. His campaign looks more like the Obama effort than the Quinn (union-dependent)effort. It will all play out===

    See, I would have said more like the “W” community strategy, but Raunerbots compare to Obama, because frankly, Rauner is more of a Democrat than he will ever be as a Republican. Ask the Rauner Crew, they want Democrats far more than Republicans. That is the Rauner cake.

    Read, don’t read, it’s not about me. If your thoughts can’t beat the facts, then don’t read.


  39. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    Stay by the phone. Crain’s is calling any minute.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:44 am:

    - A Guy… -,

    Making it about me, does not change the facts you can’t change.

    “Bruce Rauner Field Ops; ‘Hope and Shake’, and ‘Bring Back Change’…”, lol


  41. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:46 am:

    Willie. LOL. It’s not about you. At all.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    ===Willie, with your utterly unbiased and rational approach, I’m truly amazed Crain’s hasn’t called you to share you cerebral approach on all of this- Complete maximized snark.===

    Dope.


  43. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    == Ask the Rauner Crew, they want Democrats far more than Republicans. ==

    It is rich irony, isn’t it? For Rauner, governing would be much easier with Democratic majorities in the General Assembly.


  44. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    - YDD -,

    That is rich irony. A “Governor Rauner” will do more damage to My Party via connecting with Democratic ideals than any Reagan Republican ever would have, even with the “R _ _ O” tag Slytherin Republicans try to being moderates down with!

    And let’s not forget “ruling” thorough the “weaknesses and fears” of the Legislators he wants to …”know”

    Rich irony indeed.


  45. - Mighty M. Mouse - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    ===This election will be a referendum on Pat Quinn and his tax increases.===

    “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

    Maybe you’re omniscient and can predict the future, but I don’t think so. We shall see.


  46. - Amalia - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:00 pm:

    sorry, absolutely no interest in watching Republican legislators squirm to vote for things under a Republican governor. too much at stake to let Rauner win.


  47. - Apacolypse Now - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Willy
    =Bruce Rauner is not a Reagan Republican.

    You can’t call out 1/3 of the legislative GOP as corrupt and agree with Republicans 80% of the time.

    Who are the 22 corrupt GOP legislators?=
    Check you math. There 47 GOP legilators. 1/3 is 15 legislators.


  48. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    ===Check you math. There 47 GOP legilators===

    Check yours. You forgot about the Senate.

    Also, start checking your spelling, particularly your screen name.


  49. - Federalist - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    This analysis is superb. And certainly Rauner has had a major influence in legislation or lack there of.

    However, Rauner still does not come out with his own budget for this year or a new one under his administration. It does not have to be a detailed budget as submitted by a Governor but it does nee to give overall spending for each agency/department. And it needs to specifically state how he will pay for it.

    Until then he shows no leadership for a person who is highly critical and supposedly will be a new ‘leader.”


  50. - olddog - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    Another reason Rauner’s “considerable wealth” matters, especially when it’s already having an influence on the legislature —

    In other states, gazillionaires like Rauner have used their “considerable wealth” to change the political culture so they can suppress voter turnout, enact Jim Crow laws, slash public education, cut unemployment compensation and enact a hard-right ideological agenda. To see how their playbook is succeeding in North Carolina, and compare it to Rauner’s involvement in legislative politics so far, see the following:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/koch-brothers-republicans-north-carolina-91200.html

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/10/10/111010fa_fact_mayer

    If Rauner refuses to say how he’ll “shake up Springfield,” we can still learn how guys like him have done it in other states. Especially when his term limits (and enhanced veto power) referendum, his legislative PAC, his robocalls during the spring session, etc., appear to be following the early stages of the same playbook.


  51. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    Mouse:

    Rauner is focusing on the budget and taxes.

    Quinn is demanding Rauner release his own budget and revenue plan.

    It is hard to expect this will be about anything else.

    In fact, when Quinn announced he was pushing for a budget that included making the tax increase permanent, he was pretty much telegraphing that he wants this election to be about the budget and taxes.

    Quinn clearly thinks he has the high ground.

    I certainly think he is on stronger mathematical footing.

    The whole thing certainly seems to have thrown Rauner for a loop.

    At the same time, Quinn’s failure to actually enact the tax increase makes him look weak. And people tend to vote against weak leaders.

    Atleast some Democrats have got to be wondering if they will have an easier time getting a tax increase passed with Rauner as Governor.

    You know, like the last three GOP governors.


  52. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:21 pm:

    ===- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 11:31 am===

    Those are the realities and challenges of Rauner’s Crew, laid out as simple and clear as possible.

    The cake of more Dems, versus the loss of some Repubs us the Cake.

    With no GOTV apparatus to bake that cake, organized from HQ to Polling Place, with the ID’d “Pluses” makes even harder.

    Well said, - YDD -.


  53. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:29 pm:

    Rauner is a “Republican” in the style of Bloomberg of New York City, Weld of Massachusetts or Chaffee in Rhode Island. Which means that he will jump ship or drop the label as soon as it is inconvenient for him to maintain the pretense or it is advantageous for him to do so.


  54. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:45 pm:

    - URF -,

    Remember Illinois Election law;

    Rauner needs a Party.

    Running as an Indie has far too many restrictions, and now becoming a Dem might be too much after winning, but you never know…

    The GOP Primary was the best way to November. That is as much of a Republican Rauner can claim.


  55. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    You read my mind! I was going to add a sentence to my last post that Rauner probably opted to run as a Republican because it required fewer petition signatures to do so!

    The Election Code makes it difficult for third parties and independents. Rauner could have probably paid for petitions to be passed, but independents enter the game so much later that it is harder to run a campaign and gain name recognition too.

    Tough call for voters in November. It is like choosing between arsenic and hemlock.


  56. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 1:01 pm:

    - URF -, all I did was tip-in a very good feed to make the basket. I followed ya .

    Who knows, being a Republican also made sense trying to add the “Fire Madigan” supporters under the GOP banner(?)


  57. - Mighty M. Mouse - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    ===It is hard to expect this will be about anything else.===

    YDD, quite true. If you don’t know about an earthquake it’s hard to anticipate the tsunami. You don’t know what you don’t know, but you do know that it’s always possible that there are things you don’t know. Let’s just let things play out and we’ll see if any unforeseen issues bubble up to the surface.


  58. - The Prince - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    When GWB was President, the GOP Congress gave him a lot of votes that were questionable on a conservative level. It will indeed be interesting to see how a Rauner gubernatorial dynamic plays out along these lines in Illinois.


  59. - GA Watcher - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 3:47 pm:

    It’s been announced that Governor Quinn has signed Chicago’s pension reform bill passed by the GA in April.


  60. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 4:19 pm:

    Mouse:

    Look before you leap.

    He who hesitates is lost.

    Both sound advice from Ben Franklin.

    You are correct. It is possible there are things I don’t know.

    I reserve the right to alter my analysis if that turns out to be the case.

    :)


  61. - MIghty M. Mouse - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 5:15 pm:

    ===Look before you leap.

    He who hesitates is lost.

    Both sound advice from Ben Franklin.===

    You’re a wise man, YDD. I’ve heard it said that a sign of intelligence is the ability to hold two opposite ideas in one’s head at the same time. You pass that test and I’m not at all the least bit surprised. Maybe there’ll be nothing. We’ll see.


  62. - Assess - Monday, Jun 9, 14 @ 5:57 pm:

    Would Proft and the IR/IPI hold GOP feet to the fire if they do Gov Rauner’s bidding and raise taxes?


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