SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Senger keeping it close

Tuesday, Jun 10, 2014

* Somebody leaked the results of a recent We Ask America poll to Greg Hinz. The survey covered the west suburban 11th Congressional District race between incumbent Democrat Bill Foster and Republican state Rep. Darlene Senger

the new survey of 842 voters found Mr. Foster leading Ms. Senger 45.9 percent to 40.65 percent. A lead is a lead, but Ms. Senger, a state representative from Naperville, still isn’t very well-known in much of the district.

That’s not good news for Foster at all.

* Now, before we move on to the other result, keep in mind that Bruce Rauner has been running a bunch of positive TV ads in the Chicago media market for two months. Those ads will inflate his numbers considerably, and I’d like to see the crosstabs to see how he’s doing with Democrats. As we’ve discussed before, once the state’s partisanship tendencies kick in, numbers like these tend to vanish pretty quickly

Mr. Rauner is up 18 points in what is supposed to be a marginal Democratic district, 51.59 percent to 33.59 percent for the incumbent. The margin is somewhat narrower among women but widens to a whopping 26 points among men.

* Meanwhile, from an NRCC press release…

- The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced today that 11 Republican candidates have reached ‘Young Gun’ status, the top tier of the Committee’s three-level recruitment program. These candidates have reached the third and final level by establishing a clear path to victory through their ability to build a formidable campaign structure and achieve important goals and benchmarks.

“Candidates that reach ‘Young Gun’ status have met a series of rigorous goals that will put them in position to win on Election Day,” said NRCC Chairman Greg Walden. “Our job as a committee is to help elect Republicans to office that will serve as a check and balance on the Obama administration. These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare, grow the economy, and get Washington’s spending under control. As the November Elections approach, I am confident that these candidates will continue to work hard for their communities and bring common-sense principles to Congress.” […]

The NRCC’s Second Round of ‘Young Gun’ Candidates [include]:

    IL-11 Darlene Senger
    IL-17 Bobby Schilling

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Sbarro McArby's - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:35 am:


    Do you know about any statewide Quinn-Rauner polls on the horizon, whether conducted by you or otherwise?

  2. - OneMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    Wow, really surprised the Senger number is that close I suspect she has ZERO name recognition in a big chunk of the district.

  3. - A guy... - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    She’s a very capable and energetic campaigner. Foster has some trouble ahead. The Rauner numbers are encouraging, but the cross tabs will be interesting. Still, that’s a good sample in a good district to sample in. For wonks, (self admittedly, I am one) this will be a very interesting cycle.

  4. - shore - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    the probably I have with the gop and tribunes redistricting crusade is I always thot it benefited the party more in the longterm not to do it. Forces a bob dold to talk to voters who don’t wear north face fleece vests with wesleyan emblems over brooks brothers shirts or other gop candidates to actually think about reaching out to voters which the party hasn’t done for 25 years. That and the Democrats won in 2010 and to the victors go the spoils.

    the longer democrats wait to beat up on rauner the better the odds he wins. He’s been on tv now for the better part of the last 4 years with his ramp up in his civic issue work where he was sarah palin bad on tv to now where he’s getting more comfortable. You don’t have the education he’s got and the money he’s made without learning how to win and he’s really progressed in his speaking and comfort level with this. I have no doubt if they started bringing the pressure obama brought to romney from day 1 of that general they’ll get a lot of 47 percent comments and other goodies they can put this one away.

    but after 1.5 decades of winning maybe the arrogance has caught up to them.

  5. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    This is an obvious trend building over the past six months. You can’t win playing defense and that seems to be all the incumbent party has been doing for a while. Playing offense, however, does not mean going negative. Voters are very cynical right now and polls are also showing a strong negativity towards whoever is in power. Those in power need to demonstrate an ability to sincerely address that cynicism and give people hope. Folks are tired of hand-outs, which they recognize as not a way of life, but a temp solution. Temporary isn’t supposed to last this many years.

    Math exposes the real possibility that Schilling can win back the 13th. The differences in voter turnout in 2012 and 2010 is significant enough for him to trend support and pull off a win in 2014. If 2014 is similar to 2010, he can win again, and so far that seems to be quite likely.

  6. - Weils Up - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Foster is one of the more out of touch Congressman we have have in Illinois, he is going to have real problems now that the GOP has a candidate suburban moms can relate to.

  7. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    “Our job as a committee is to help elect Republicans to office that will serve as a check and balance on the Obama administration.”

    No kidding.

    The Obama Administration has been checked into near-oblivion already, with the House paralyzed by Republicans into inaction on major issues that voters support.

    “These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare”

    How many Obamacare repeal/attack/defund attempts were there already, over 50? The House Republicans are in an endless loop of obstructionism and rejection of major policies that we support.

  8. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Quinn’s never been an electoral juggernaut. If he wins, it will be razor-thin.

  9. - Darienite - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Foster has no real record to run on. And he has made little if any appearances in East DuPage County. He ‘drafted’ behind Obama in 2012, and he could do the same behind Durbin in November.

  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    “These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare”

    Today’s poll shows a 55/39 in favor of that statement. You don’t ignore the continued polling showing that. ObamaCare has never had a majority support since passage in any poll. Regardless of your stand on that particular issue, you run and win on that.

    When the political opposition holds one half of one branch of government, they repeatedly vote on what got them into office, so that they can stay in office. Polls do not favor the current president, which is also completely normal during a mid-term in a second term in office.

    In 2006, it was the Democrats who won this way - this year it will be the Republicans.

    Ebb and flow….

  11. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    When is the NRCC going to give up that “Young Gun” nonsense? Schilling and Senger may very well vote the will of NRA at every turn if elected, but neither is “young.” “Young Gun” sounds like the kind of macho messaging a never-grew-up frat boy thinks sounds cool.

  12. - anona-moose - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    Met darlene at a few different events in dupage. Got nothing but nice things to say about her - passionate and cares about Illinois. And her family.

    I’m confident foster will look like a worm to voters if they get to know Darlene.

  13. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I agree. “Young Gun” is a pathetic name. Bobby Schilling has ten kids. That is one worn-out gun.

  14. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    “Today’s poll shows a 55/39 in favor of that statement. You don’t ignore the continued polling showing that. ObamaCare has never had a majority support since passage in any poll. Regardless of your stand on that particular issue, you run and win on that.”

    While that may be true, other polls show consistently that people would rather “keep and fix” Obamacare than get rid of it outright.

    There was one poll in which voters had Obamacare repeal fatigue, and they saw it as less important than other issues. I guess if politicians can keep milking the Obamacare repeal cow for success, they can keep at it. The question is how much milk does that cow have left.

  15. - paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    “Young Guns” was a horrible Emilio Estevez film in which he starred a Billy the Kid. It is also a terrible term used by the GOP to brand some of its candidates. It follows in the footsteps of George W. Bush’s Super Rangers, Rangers, Pioneers and Mavericks, groan inducing terms used for political bundlers.

  16. - Lovey - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:40 am:

    Is this the same polling company that had Rauner leading in the final days the primary by 18 points?

  17. - anonymoose - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Anona-moose….your handle is strikingly similar to mine. Selected in the immediate post-Blago era - due to my girth, being rather dense, and a love of Bullwinkle.

    Fortunately, I echo your sentiments and believe Ms. Senger would make an excellent Member of Congress.

  18. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:42 am:

    Foster below 50%, not very good. Danger.

    Senger not even above 41%, with the “kicker”, that she is getting better known.

    Davis, Schneider, Bustos are the Tier One worries for their parties.

    Enyart, Foster are Tier Two, and that is the list of the 5 Districts in focus here. Foster has serious problems, but Bustos, Schneider, and Davis need to worry much more.

    Rauner at a 18 point “lead”, today?

    Smells like the Primary, “today”. State Fair and Labor Day then let’s see this touted Ground Game that is rising like a Phoenix?

  19. - John Culpepper - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:49 am:

    I have been told by political folks who personally know Darlene much better than I do that she is one of the hardest working Republicans anyone will come across. She called me one evening to ask for my help as a precinct person in her upcoming campaign. The tone of the phone conversation was sincere, the enthusiasm level was what was called for, and most importantly she discussed her thoughts about how she planned to campaign effectively against her opponent with a decided sense of practicality. I had met her prior to this phone conversation on several occasions but the prior meetings at political events were “politics light”. This last phone conversation from Darlene Senger a few months ago was from a woman who knew where she was going and one who knew how to get to her destination in the most effective and efficient method available. I was impressed with how she had grown into her own skin. Mr. Foster will have his hands full when he takes on Darlene Senger.

  20. - Walker - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    Senger is smart and tough. Not to be underestimated.

  21. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 11:21 am:

    While that may be true, other polls show consistently that people would rather “keep and fix” Obamacare than get rid of it outright.

    Sorry, you must not be seeing the new polls. The VA scandals and the soaring health care prices we’re seeing seem to be changing that opinion too.

    Those cows have enough milk in them until November.

  22. - train111 - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    Looks like Foster 2.0 may be going obsolete just like Foster 1.0 did.

  23. - TL - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Foster is a fairly unlikable cold fish. He moved early and specifically to run on Obama’s coattails again, freezing out insurance exec (and Obama supporter) John Atkinson. With the House GOP probably holding serve, will Foster get resources or will he have to commit his own money? He may be left on his own. A better candidate two years ago (like Atkinson) would have made this a no-contest solid D district forever.

  24. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    “Sorry, you must not be seeing the new polls.”

    Please present the new polls that overwhelm what the old polls show. Many if not all of the polls I’ve seen show that Obamacare is unpopular, but people would rather retain and fix the healthcare law than repeal it.

    “soaring health care prices”

    There has been a report or two showing that premiums will go up a modest amount, compared to their previous increases prior to Obamacare. It was also reported that another insurer will join the Illinois marketplace this fall. New Hampshire reports that five insurance companies will be in the marketplace next fall, as opposed to one for the first enrollment.

    “The VA scandals”

    What, no more Benghazi? The Republicans are careening between scandals and repealing Obamacare, except that repealing Obamacare seems to be on the backburner for now (it might flare up again soon). Is that what good leadership looks like?

    To the post,

    It looks to me the GOP is up to more of the same–attacking Obama while not offering up any plans.

  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 3:46 pm:

    You don’t think voters in the 11th know what Quinn’s party affiliation is? Even so, he is under-performing Foster by double-digits.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Happy Thanksgiving!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Five unanswered questions
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Caption contest!
* Crossing the line
* Moody's warns Illinois
* The Credit Union Difference
* *** UPDATED x1 - Franks responds *** Uh-oh
* Then and now
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Instagram starts learning to play nicely with multiple accounts
* Leaked renders of the ZUK Z2 posted online, could sport a 360-degree rotating camera
* LG expanding OLED production capability
* Instagram Now Testing Support For Account Switching, No Log Out Required
* Warnings for using the Samsung Gear VR headset
* Banks push back against international Apple Pay spread
* [Deal] dbrand is hosting a sitewide 30% off sale, attaches contest to Black Friday

* Starting Pitcher Rankings: Chris Sale and Jose Quintana maintain st...
* Scouting profile: Adam Engel
* Alex Avila will try to shed limitations with White Sox
* White Sox program provides kids real chance
* Johnson solid candidate for White Sox rotation
* White Sox sign catcher Avila to one-year deal
* White Sox sign catcher Avila to one-year deal


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Rauner faces challenges in move to block Syrian.....
* 'Welcome the stranger' - Champaign/Urbana News-.....
* Illinois Moratorium On Syrian Refugees Is Reque.....

* EXCHANGE: Highland art teachers exhibit works on campus
* Police make arrest in killing of Chicago 9-year-old boy
* Mascoutah burglary victim shot in 1st night at new home
* Closing of 2 Illinois harness racing tracks opposed
* Landfill cleanup to idle Rockford area sledding hill
* Hunters find body of missing southern Illinois woman
* EXCHANGE: Augustana digitizing Hauberg glass plate images
* Rauner faces challenges in move to block Syrian refugees
* Illinois high court takes Moline company's tax break appeal
* Boone County jail inmate charged with attacking guard

* Rauner faces challenges in move to block refugees
* Vendor Payment Program suspended due to budget impasse
* Rauner pardons man found innocent of 1999 attack
* Springfield jobless rate falls again, to 5.1 percent
* Springfield police chief sees problems with body cam law
* Lawsuit challenges Illinois ban on marijuana campaign money
* Number of Illinois inmates released on parole climbing
* Bryce Benton circulating petitions to challenge Sen. Sam McCann in GOP primary
* Executive Mansion roof repairs nearing completion
* Candidates begin filing petitions for March primary election

* Retailers ready for shooting protests
* Review: Sociale in the South Loop
* Her Barbie was a lawyer. Now she defends victims' rights
* Meet the guy making money off your food scraps
* Anger, pain and calls for change in response to police video

* In wake of dashcam video, Emanuel must navigate political minefield
* White House under holiday lockdown after man jumps fence
* Trevor Daley turning the corner at both ends of the ice
* Rauner faces challenges in move to block Syrian refugees
* Brown: Simeon basketball players bring their A-game to court
* 16 reasons every Blackhawks fan should be thankful on Thanksgiving
* Blackhawks cool off Sharks; Kane extends point streak to 17
* Four more Laquan McDonald police dashcam videos released
* President Obama: ‘Disturbed’ by Laquan video, grateful for ‘peaceful’ protests
* Black leaders call for Supt. McCarthy to resign

* Murder charges filed in slaying of 9-year-old Tyshawn Lee
* Pop Warner team scrambles to raise money for national championship
* 1 dead, 5 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Person shot in Elgin
* 4 arrested in 2nd night of Laquan McDonald shooting protests
* University of Illinois marching band performs in Macy's parade
* Laquan McDonald shooting protest groups plan Friday march
* Cops: Man tried to lure, kidnap 9-year-old girl in South Chicago
* Teen dead, 4 others wounded in city shootings
* Woman dies in Chesterton fire

* Rauner faces challenges in move to block refugees
* Vendor Payment Program suspended due to budget impasse
* Eugene Robinson: The GOP's political correctness dodge
* Douglas Holt: Woman's protest of Trump was misguided, inappropriate
* George Will: Muzzling pet advice another case of free speech erosion
* Bernard Schoenburg: Josh Langfelder took father's advice on election petition signatures
* Rauner pardons man found innocent of 1999 attack
* Springfield jobless rate falls again, to 5.1 percent
* Michael Gerson: The Trump effect, still 'understated'
* Catherine Rampell: For millennials, first comes love — then what?

* Closing of 2 Illinois harness racing tracks opposed
* Mascoutah burglary victim shot in 1st night at new home
* Chicago police arrest man in 9-year-old boy's fatal shooting
* Strikes on IS city, focus of international campaign, kill 8
* Protest over Chicago teen's shooting set for retail district
* Super Bowl of shopping starts
* France honors attack victims in city subdued by mourning
* Live Report: Football State Championships
* LIVE: Football State Championships
* Peoria medical school professor gets grant to study Alzheimer's causes

* Protest over Chicago teen's shooting set for Magnificent Mile
* District 103 officials to discuss plan to start classes later
* Title hurdle: South Carolina stands in way of No. 1 Clemson
* West Chicago businesswomen host fundraiser for women in need
* Elgin woman dies at 100, said secret to longevity was eating at Portillo's

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Letter: Sen. Durbin is right on refugee is......

* Opinion: Sen. Kirk must stand with crimina......

* Snow Money
* There's Snow Business
* Random Thoughts.
* ‘It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas,’ several weeks ago!!!
* Chicago Teachers Union. “If we strike, we do so to protect our children,” says Karen Jennings Lewis.
* Resign.
* Don't Let The Turkeys Get You Down
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* IDOT Debuts Winter Weather Driving Tips Video
* Pot Dangerous? Mother's Testimony Says Yes [video]

* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact

    Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller