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Poll: Senger keeping it close

Tuesday, Jun 10, 2014

* Somebody leaked the results of a recent We Ask America poll to Greg Hinz. The survey covered the west suburban 11th Congressional District race between incumbent Democrat Bill Foster and Republican state Rep. Darlene Senger

the new survey of 842 voters found Mr. Foster leading Ms. Senger 45.9 percent to 40.65 percent. A lead is a lead, but Ms. Senger, a state representative from Naperville, still isn’t very well-known in much of the district.

That’s not good news for Foster at all.

* Now, before we move on to the other result, keep in mind that Bruce Rauner has been running a bunch of positive TV ads in the Chicago media market for two months. Those ads will inflate his numbers considerably, and I’d like to see the crosstabs to see how he’s doing with Democrats. As we’ve discussed before, once the state’s partisanship tendencies kick in, numbers like these tend to vanish pretty quickly

Mr. Rauner is up 18 points in what is supposed to be a marginal Democratic district, 51.59 percent to 33.59 percent for the incumbent. The margin is somewhat narrower among women but widens to a whopping 26 points among men.

* Meanwhile, from an NRCC press release…

- The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced today that 11 Republican candidates have reached ‘Young Gun’ status, the top tier of the Committee’s three-level recruitment program. These candidates have reached the third and final level by establishing a clear path to victory through their ability to build a formidable campaign structure and achieve important goals and benchmarks.

“Candidates that reach ‘Young Gun’ status have met a series of rigorous goals that will put them in position to win on Election Day,” said NRCC Chairman Greg Walden. “Our job as a committee is to help elect Republicans to office that will serve as a check and balance on the Obama administration. These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare, grow the economy, and get Washington’s spending under control. As the November Elections approach, I am confident that these candidates will continue to work hard for their communities and bring common-sense principles to Congress.” […]

The NRCC’s Second Round of ‘Young Gun’ Candidates [include]:

    IL-11 Darlene Senger
    IL-17 Bobby Schilling

- Posted by Rich Miller        


25 Comments
  1. - Sbarro McArby's - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    Rich,

    Do you know about any statewide Quinn-Rauner polls on the horizon, whether conducted by you or otherwise?


  2. - OneMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    Wow, really surprised the Senger number is that close I suspect she has ZERO name recognition in a big chunk of the district.


  3. - A guy... - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    She’s a very capable and energetic campaigner. Foster has some trouble ahead. The Rauner numbers are encouraging, but the cross tabs will be interesting. Still, that’s a good sample in a good district to sample in. For wonks, (self admittedly, I am one) this will be a very interesting cycle.


  4. - shore - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    the probably I have with the gop and tribunes redistricting crusade is I always thot it benefited the party more in the longterm not to do it. Forces a bob dold to talk to voters who don’t wear north face fleece vests with wesleyan emblems over brooks brothers shirts or other gop candidates to actually think about reaching out to voters which the party hasn’t done for 25 years. That and the Democrats won in 2010 and to the victors go the spoils.

    the longer democrats wait to beat up on rauner the better the odds he wins. He’s been on tv now for the better part of the last 4 years with his ramp up in his civic issue work where he was sarah palin bad on tv to now where he’s getting more comfortable. You don’t have the education he’s got and the money he’s made without learning how to win and he’s really progressed in his speaking and comfort level with this. I have no doubt if they started bringing the pressure obama brought to romney from day 1 of that general they’ll get a lot of 47 percent comments and other goodies they can put this one away.

    but after 1.5 decades of winning maybe the arrogance has caught up to them.


  5. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    This is an obvious trend building over the past six months. You can’t win playing defense and that seems to be all the incumbent party has been doing for a while. Playing offense, however, does not mean going negative. Voters are very cynical right now and polls are also showing a strong negativity towards whoever is in power. Those in power need to demonstrate an ability to sincerely address that cynicism and give people hope. Folks are tired of hand-outs, which they recognize as not a way of life, but a temp solution. Temporary isn’t supposed to last this many years.

    Math exposes the real possibility that Schilling can win back the 13th. The differences in voter turnout in 2012 and 2010 is significant enough for him to trend support and pull off a win in 2014. If 2014 is similar to 2010, he can win again, and so far that seems to be quite likely.


  6. - Weils Up - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Foster is one of the more out of touch Congressman we have have in Illinois, he is going to have real problems now that the GOP has a candidate suburban moms can relate to.


  7. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    “Our job as a committee is to help elect Republicans to office that will serve as a check and balance on the Obama administration.”

    No kidding.

    The Obama Administration has been checked into near-oblivion already, with the House paralyzed by Republicans into inaction on major issues that voters support.

    “These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare”

    How many Obamacare repeal/attack/defund attempts were there already, over 50? The House Republicans are in an endless loop of obstructionism and rejection of major policies that we support.


  8. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Quinn’s never been an electoral juggernaut. If he wins, it will be razor-thin.


  9. - Darienite - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Foster has no real record to run on. And he has made little if any appearances in East DuPage County. He ‘drafted’ behind Obama in 2012, and he could do the same behind Durbin in November.


  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    “These 11 candidates will fight to stop the harmful consequences of ObamaCare”

    Today’s poll shows a 55/39 in favor of that statement. You don’t ignore the continued polling showing that. ObamaCare has never had a majority support since passage in any poll. Regardless of your stand on that particular issue, you run and win on that.

    When the political opposition holds one half of one branch of government, they repeatedly vote on what got them into office, so that they can stay in office. Polls do not favor the current president, which is also completely normal during a mid-term in a second term in office.

    In 2006, it was the Democrats who won this way - this year it will be the Republicans.

    Ebb and flow….


  11. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    When is the NRCC going to give up that “Young Gun” nonsense? Schilling and Senger may very well vote the will of NRA at every turn if elected, but neither is “young.” “Young Gun” sounds like the kind of macho messaging a never-grew-up frat boy thinks sounds cool.


  12. - anona-moose - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    Met darlene at a few different events in dupage. Got nothing but nice things to say about her - passionate and cares about Illinois. And her family.

    I’m confident foster will look like a worm to voters if they get to know Darlene.


  13. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I agree. “Young Gun” is a pathetic name. Bobby Schilling has ten kids. That is one worn-out gun.


  14. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    “Today’s poll shows a 55/39 in favor of that statement. You don’t ignore the continued polling showing that. ObamaCare has never had a majority support since passage in any poll. Regardless of your stand on that particular issue, you run and win on that.”

    While that may be true, other polls show consistently that people would rather “keep and fix” Obamacare than get rid of it outright.

    There was one poll in which voters had Obamacare repeal fatigue, and they saw it as less important than other issues. I guess if politicians can keep milking the Obamacare repeal cow for success, they can keep at it. The question is how much milk does that cow have left.


  15. - paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    “Young Guns” was a horrible Emilio Estevez film in which he starred a Billy the Kid. It is also a terrible term used by the GOP to brand some of its candidates. It follows in the footsteps of George W. Bush’s Super Rangers, Rangers, Pioneers and Mavericks, groan inducing terms used for political bundlers.


  16. - Lovey - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:40 am:

    Is this the same polling company that had Rauner leading in the final days the primary by 18 points?


  17. - anonymoose - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Anona-moose….your handle is strikingly similar to mine. Selected in the immediate post-Blago era - due to my girth, being rather dense, and a love of Bullwinkle.

    Fortunately, I echo your sentiments and believe Ms. Senger would make an excellent Member of Congress.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:42 am:

    Foster below 50%, not very good. Danger.

    Senger not even above 41%, with the “kicker”, that she is getting better known.

    Davis, Schneider, Bustos are the Tier One worries for their parties.

    Enyart, Foster are Tier Two, and that is the list of the 5 Districts in focus here. Foster has serious problems, but Bustos, Schneider, and Davis need to worry much more.

    Rauner at a 18 point “lead”, today?

    Smells like the Primary, “today”. State Fair and Labor Day then let’s see this touted Ground Game that is rising like a Phoenix?


  19. - John Culpepper - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:49 am:

    I have been told by political folks who personally know Darlene much better than I do that she is one of the hardest working Republicans anyone will come across. She called me one evening to ask for my help as a precinct person in her upcoming campaign. The tone of the phone conversation was sincere, the enthusiasm level was what was called for, and most importantly she discussed her thoughts about how she planned to campaign effectively against her opponent with a decided sense of practicality. I had met her prior to this phone conversation on several occasions but the prior meetings at political events were “politics light”. This last phone conversation from Darlene Senger a few months ago was from a woman who knew where she was going and one who knew how to get to her destination in the most effective and efficient method available. I was impressed with how she had grown into her own skin. Mr. Foster will have his hands full when he takes on Darlene Senger.


  20. - Walker - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    Senger is smart and tough. Not to be underestimated.


  21. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 11:21 am:

    While that may be true, other polls show consistently that people would rather “keep and fix” Obamacare than get rid of it outright.

    Sorry, you must not be seeing the new polls. The VA scandals and the soaring health care prices we’re seeing seem to be changing that opinion too.

    Those cows have enough milk in them until November.


  22. - train111 - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    Looks like Foster 2.0 may be going obsolete just like Foster 1.0 did.


  23. - TL - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Foster is a fairly unlikable cold fish. He moved early and specifically to run on Obama’s coattails again, freezing out insurance exec (and Obama supporter) John Atkinson. With the House GOP probably holding serve, will Foster get resources or will he have to commit his own money? He may be left on his own. A better candidate two years ago (like Atkinson) would have made this a no-contest solid D district forever.


  24. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    “Sorry, you must not be seeing the new polls.”

    Please present the new polls that overwhelm what the old polls show. Many if not all of the polls I’ve seen show that Obamacare is unpopular, but people would rather retain and fix the healthcare law than repeal it.

    “soaring health care prices”

    There has been a report or two showing that premiums will go up a modest amount, compared to their previous increases prior to Obamacare. It was also reported that another insurer will join the Illinois marketplace this fall. New Hampshire reports that five insurance companies will be in the marketplace next fall, as opposed to one for the first enrollment.

    “The VA scandals”

    What, no more Benghazi? The Republicans are careening between scandals and repealing Obamacare, except that repealing Obamacare seems to be on the backburner for now (it might flare up again soon). Is that what good leadership looks like?

    To the post,

    It looks to me the GOP is up to more of the same–attacking Obama while not offering up any plans.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jun 10, 14 @ 3:46 pm:

    You don’t think voters in the 11th know what Quinn’s party affiliation is? Even so, he is under-performing Foster by double-digits.


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