* Reboot commissioned a new poll…
Conducted June 10 and 11 by pollster We Ask America, the survey below contains responses from 1,075 registered voters on the broadest question of the election: “If the election for Illinois governor were held today, for whom would you vote?”
Among all respondents, Rauner registered a 10-point lead (47-37, with 16 percent undecided). But Quinn had a commanding lead in Chicago, where his huge showing in 2010 helped him claim victory by a margin of less than 1 percent (46.79 percent to Bill Brady’s 45.94 percent; a difference of 31,834 votes).
“History teaches us to not make strong assumptions from these early polls,” said We Ask America CEO Gregg Durham. “Four years ago, Pat Quinn trailed Bill Brady by 10 points in August and fought his way back to win a close victory. Rauner’s lead in the collar counties and downstate is strong and may hold, but Cook County is the real battle ground.”
The poll shows Quinn leading 65-18 in Chicago, which is pretty darned good for Rauner. The Democrat trails the Republican 36-44 in suburban Cook, which is also pretty darned good.
* And, as we’ve already discussed, FiveThirtyEight gives Rauner a 75 percent chance of winning.
But Larry Sabato checked his crystal ball and rates the race a tossup…
Even though the Land of Lincoln is deep blue, Quinn is deeply vulnerable for many reasons, including recent allegations that an anti-violence initiative he started in 2010 is being investigated for possibly being a “political slush fund.” The GOP apparently chose wisely in its primary by selecting wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner, who is trying to position himself as the sort of outsider and moderate Republican that the state elected governor in the 1970s through the 1990s. […]
If Democrats can mobilize their large party base in Illinois and Connecticut, for instance, that alone would save Quinn and Malloy.
* The Question: What percentage chance of victory would you give Bruce Rauner? Make sure to explain your answer, please. Thanks.