SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s number: 28 percent

Monday, Jun 16, 2014

* From the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability

In real terms, Illinois has been significantly cutting its investment in services over the last 15 years.

In fact, in FY2015, spending on the core services of education, healthcare, human services, and public safety - which collectively account for $9 out of every $10 in General Fund service spending - will be 28 percent less than in FY2000 after adjusting for inflation. [Emphasis added.]

Why? Mainly because the state has been paying its pension obligations and the Edgar payment ramp has kicked into high gear.

Also, notice that “healthcare” is included on Martire’s list. Total healthcare costs are growing a net 0.8 percent this coming fiscal year. A bit less griping about Medicaid by the screamers would be appreciated.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


33 Comments
  1. - Fed up - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Let’s get real. They are using the numbers for an expired income tax anyone who believes those are the final numbers probably believes Quinn’s violence reduction plan was about violence.


  2. - Paid - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    Wouldn’t “service” spending exclude pensions? So this isn’t a calc of pension crowd out.


  3. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:34 pm:

    ===Wouldn’t “service” spending exclude pensions? So this isn’t a calc of pension crowd out. ===

    You contradicted yourself. Pensions aren’t service spending. Pension spending has gone up. Service spending has gone down.

    And, Fed up, I don’t understand your point at all, either.


  4. - Anon - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:35 pm:

    Aren’t pension costs considered part of “spending on the core services of education, healthcare, human services, and public safety?” Are we really spending less, or are we just spending more on different categories of expenditures?


  5. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    There is a lot in that general statement.

    It assumes apples-to-apples as though Illinois state government in 2000 is the same thing in 2015. There has been an incredible revolution in state government since Y2K.

    We have an entire generation, the world’s largest generation, retiring. That leaves everyone else holding the bag, and there are a lot fewer of us than there were Boomers.

    In 2000, some agencies still used typewriters and land line phones. Fax machines! The techies were trying to convince Boomers to switch from mainframes to PCs. We had hundred of offices filled with thousands of file cabinets, filled with millions of files, filled with billions of pieces of freaking paper!

    In 2000 - there were secretaries!

    It was an entirely different world. Ask any of the old timers out on contract right now.

    So we’re comparing 2000 to 2015, based on…

    Yeah - Mr. Martine. There has been a decrease in spending. Now tell us how the work is being done with a fraction of the state workers?

    Sorry, but I just can’t accept this simple little accounting analogy as more than an interesting tidbit. You cannot get a complete picture without recognizing the radical transformation which has taken place within state government, thanks to technologies and generational retirement.

    It is not apple-to-apple at all.


  6. - Fed up - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    Rich do you honestly believe the income tax is going to expire and the budget isn’t going to change


  7. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 2:55 pm:

    ===do you honestly believe the income tax is going to expire and the budget isn’t going to change ===

    I think the budget will change. I don’t think the budget will rise by more than 28 percent.


  8. - Eugene - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:00 pm:

    Vanilla Man, regardless of changes in technology, the cost of educating a child has not decreased, but funding in real terms has decreased. Technology has driven the costs of health care up, not down. The takeaway is that when it comes to spending on services that most people want and expect from state government, spending in real terms has gone down. And we are devoting so much money to paying off pension debt because for years the politicians would not be honest with the public about the cost of services, so they deferred pension payments - ultimately an extremely expensive way to deal with the problem.


  9. - Eugene - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    Fed Up, spending on services has gone down substantially even if you look at FY 2014 for comparison.


  10. - Commander Norton - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:09 pm:

    Spending on benefits, including pensions, shouldn’t be immune from scrutiny, but certainly paying competitive wages and offering competitive benefits are important components of providing services.

    How many times have I heard complaints about teacher quality come out of one side of a mouth while complaints about excessive teacher benefits come out the other?


  11. - Fed up - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    Eugene 2014 is a much more appropriate comparison.


  12. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:24 pm:

    ===Eugene 2014 is a much more appropriate comparison. ===

    Then go start your own group. lol


  13. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    @Fed up:

    I think you’ve completely missed the point of the comparison, which is, in simplistic terms, to note that spending on the large budget drivers has gone down when you adjust for inflation. It is what it is. Trying to spin it is asinine.


  14. - Steve - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    Many Illinois taxpayers make less than they did in the year 2000, on an inflation adjusted basis. Although, I like where Ralph’s logic is: from now on if someone is doing financially worse on an inflation adjusted basis they shouldn’t have to pay higher taxes .


  15. - wordslinger - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 3:54 pm:

    Not surprised at all. They’ve been whacking at the non-pension portion of the budget pretty good the last five years or so.

    Really, VMan, there’s been a “revolution” in the delivery of state services since 2000? Are you a part of that?


  16. - Steve - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    It’s nice to do studies on things that haven’t kept up with inflation but the bond market doesn’t care and courts don’t care. Illinois public pensions are not only a big part of government spending they are more special: they are enshrined in the Illinois state constitution. Calling something an investment doesn’t make it more worthy than something protected by the constitution.


  17. - steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 6:50 pm:

    Students, you have to learn the difference between pension “costs” and pension “spending”. Pension costs are not up much at all and in fact are down over the past several years, the reasons for which include the diminished (relatively) costs for Tier 2. Pension spending is up substantially, but only because of what are effectively interest costs on past unfunded liability, which we are paying more of each year. We haven’t yet reached the point where we’re actually starting to pay down principle.


  18. - Assess - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 6:55 pm:

    The number of state workers has been cut by almost 25% sinc 2002-03. Such facts don’t matter to those whose premise is that IL has a spending problem, even tho IL is one of the lowest spending states per capita.


  19. - steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 6:56 pm:

    Oh, and spending is still down even if you don’t adjust for inflation: notice the 14-15 numbers, down nominally, and we know the 15 numbers can’t be funded. The only thing I disagree with Ralph on is his statement that it would be impossible to cut $2.2B from the 14 budget: it wouldn’t. However, no on wanted to own that mayhem in an election year, just like the GA didn’t want to own the “tax increase” this year either.


  20. - Johnny Utah - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 7:10 pm:

    The Illinois median household income has fallen by 20%, from 63,000 to 51,000 in the same period.

    Private sector payrolls have fallen from 5.1 million to 5.0 million in the same time.

    No job creation -> no income growth -> no government funding.

    Have to deal with jobs before we can have tax dollars to spend.


  21. - By the Numbers - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 8:57 pm:

    Johnny Utah
    You need to check your math and your data. Your private sector payroll is close but your median income is baloney. By the way percentage wise Illinois government payroll has fallen faster and further than the private sector over the same period.


  22. - Johnny Utah - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:30 pm:

    By the numbers:

    Wrong on private sector payrolls, overall government payrolls, and median income.

    Since Dec’99, private sector payrolls are -197k, overall gov’t payrolls are +1.8k. IL gov’t payrolls are -14.3k, Feds in IL are -16.5k, but locals in IL are +32.6k.

    Inflation-adjusted median household income was $63,843 in 1999, $51,738 in 2012.

    Once again, this is a jobs problem. Government service spending cannot increase with negative private sector payrolls and collapsing median incomes.
    Check for yourself:
    http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSILA672N


  23. - JI - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 12:55 am:

    The “healthcare” lines are true only if you ignore the fact that the vast majority of Medicaid spending now occurs outside GRF and the state has regularly shifted more and more Medicaid spending to special funds over the past several years.

    GRF + related funds saw 16.5% increase in FY15 over FY14. And that’s a 55% increase in GRF + related funds since FY07.


  24. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 3:39 am:

    US real median household income
    1999: $56,080
    2012: $51,017

    Sounds like a national problem, not an Illinois problem.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N


  25. - Johnny Utah - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 7:39 am:

    Precinct captain,

    So the US median income fell by $5,000 in the same time that the Illinois median fell by $12,000. Explain to me how that is not an extraordinary Illinois problem.


  26. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 8:13 am:

    @Johnny:

    I believe the point was that it’s a national problem, not just an Illinois problem. Can you explain to me how you don’t come to the same conclusion?


  27. - Johnny Utah - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 8:45 am:

    It is a national problem, that Illinois has 2.5x worse. It’s worse in Illinois because Illinois has negative job creation.

    That’s where it becomes an Illinois problem, which was the point all along.

    There can’t be growth in gov’t services when there are fewer jobs, dramatically lower median incomes, and massive out-migration.

    This is a jobs/business environment problem.


  28. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 8:48 am:

    – Explain to me how that is not an extraordinary Illinois problem.–
    -
    Explain how it is.

    Is Illinois some self-contained economic system?

    Are the corporate campuses on Lake-Cook Road part of the same economy as the light manufacturers downstate?

    Are the financial services industry and the health-care services industry somehow related?

    Homebuilding and farming?

    Tourism, hospitality and restaurants linked to heavy equipment manufacturing?

    The idea of a “state economy” is silly. It has no basis in reality. There are many economies at work in Illinois and some of them have little or no relationship to each other or state government at all.


  29. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 8:51 am:

    ==That’s where it becomes an Illinois problem==

    And that’s where I’ll somewhat disagree with your analysis. It’s obviously a problem nationally. Illinois doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Saying it’s somehow a “special” Illinois problem simply isn’t true.


  30. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 8:55 am:

    ==Illinois has negative job creation==

    That’s not true either. According to Pew, while our job creation is paltry, it is positive.


  31. - Johnny Utah - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 10:16 am:

    Wordslinger: I already explained how it is an Illinois problem. Illinois’ income fell by 12k while the national fell by 5k. That’s 2.5x as bad.

    Illinois is a self-contained tax system and regulatory system. That’s a big deal. When a govt sets tax and regulatory rules for the state, you have a state economy. Welcome to Econ 101.

    Are you saying that states don’t compete, and that Illinois isn’t losing to just about everyone? News flash buddy: people are voting with their feet and leaving.

    Demoralized: As I wrote above, since 1999, Illinois has lost 197k private sector jobs on net. I provided the link so you can search it. At least read what you’re responding to before you respond.


  32. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    –Welcome to Econ 101.-

    Let me know how the second day of class goes. I’m pulling for you.


  33. - Johnny Utah - Tuesday, Jun 17, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Second day was great, but you missed class again. Had to give you a demerit.

    But that’s ok. It’s tiring taking you to school all the time ;)


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Final thoughts before calling it a night
* *** UPDATED x3 - Script *** Quinn airs radio ad of Rauner joking about being "scared" of four African-Americans
* Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
* Friday night TV ad rating
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sonos revealed to be working on Android Wear controls
        * Nexus 6 sells out in minutes, DROID Turbo goes ballistic, Microsoft Band sneaks out early | Pocketnow Weekly 120
        * Roku adds Google Play Movies & TV to its feature list
        * Minuum iOS update picks up new languages, advanced settings (Giveaway)
        * A final word from Taylor Martin
        * Battleheart Legacy signals Mika Mobile’s return to Android
        * AT&T and Verizon Boost Monthly Wireless Data in Ongoing Competition

        * Samsung Stays As The Top Smartphone Vendor For Q3, Xiaomi Rises to Third
        * Facebook Mobile Photo Updates: This Week in Social Media
        * Amazon Executive Says Fire Phone Was Overpriced
        * How to Enable On-Screen buttons on Mi 3 & Redmi 1S
        * Sprint Leases Samsung Galaxy S5 For $20 A Month
        * OnePlus One With Yellow Kevlar Back Poses For The Camera
        * Android 5.0 Lollipop Update for Samsung Galaxy S5 Progressing Nicely (Video)

        * Fall Stars Game filled to brim with talent
        * Fall Stars Game filled to brim with talent
        * White Sox opt to decline Paulino's '15 option
        * White Sox have flexibility to pursue multiple upgrades
        * White Sox offseason plan roundup: Third base
        * Minnie Miñoso belongs in the Hall of Fame
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Inmate freed in landmark Illinois case..
        * Documentarian Recalls the 1986 World Series Cha.....
        * Tokyo Thrills the Global Stock Markets..
        * Ill. 14th District: Hultgren, Anderson emphasiz.....
        * Judgment Day: Incumbents are in trouble..


        * Lake Michigan waves slam Chicago lakeshore
        * Creator of Operation couldn't afford own operation
        * Union backs county commissioner for Chicago mayor
        * Judge won't close hearing in Islamic State case
        * Lake Michigan waves slam Chicago lakeshore
        * Wallenda ready for windy Chicago tightrope walks
        * Woman charged with defrauding Illinois couple
        * Quinn, Rauner talk jobs, early voting Friday
        * Judge won't close hearing in Islamic State case
        * Cook County Jail guard faces theft charge

        * State contribution to TRS to increase by $300 million next year
        * Former Gov. Edgar to campaign with Rauner
        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Inmate freed from Jacksonville prison in landmark Illinois case
        * Cross opposes income tax hike extension
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
        * Madigan’s office seeks clarifications from former Topinka nonprofit
        * Cross says no to income tax hike extension, sales tax on services
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take backseat in governor’s race
        * Illinois inmate freed in landmark capital punishment case

        * SEC examines Caterpillar's accounting for Bucyrus
        * Cubs hire Maddon as manager, fire Renteria
        * Karen Lewis endorses Jesus Garcia for Chicago mayor
        * A stormy Lake Michigan swamps Lake Shore Drive – and sinks Chicago's mood
        * A stormy Lake Michigan swamps Lake Shore Drive — and sinks Chicago's mood


        * Garcia: I'm a serious mayoral candidate, not just a protest vote
        * Boy, 3, hit by car while trick-or-treating in Winnetka
        * On O’Hare noise, aldermen demand action, but get no satisfaction
        * A higher standard of criminal justice
        * Ex-Northwestern doctor to pay $475K to settle fraud claims
        * Sad day  when  Catholic  schools  close
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Durbin, Oberweis square off for final time
        * State’s attorney investigating alderman’s prize offer to voters


        * 2 dead, 4 hurt in shootings since Friday evening
        * Karen Lewis endorses Garcia for mayor in new video
        * Boy, 3, struck by car while trick-or-treating in Winnetka
        * Missing Garfield Ridge man located
        * Trial to begin for Darien man charged in 2012 killing
        * Alleged victims of ex-Wilmette teacher share memories online
        * New rules make Illinois voting easier
        * Federal judge refuses government request to close terrorism hearing
        * Emanuel's top attorney: Watchdog had no right to sue
        * Cops release photos in robbery and attack of police sergeant


        * Scary Story: St. Michael And Mr. Pyles By H.W. Devlin
        * Dodging DUIs: Secretary of State Candidates Faceoff
        * Cook County posting indigent burials in 'virtual cemetery'
        * Whom do you trust when it comes to nutrition advice?
        * Zombie barge sinking in storm at Navy Pier
        * The digital afterlife
        * Making Buildings Healthier From The Inside Out
        * Scary Story: Planes By Ted Morrissey
        * Listen to State Week - October 31, 2014
        * "Monster Mash" Celebrates Halloween With Classical Music


        * E.J. Dionne: Moderate thunder out of Kansas
        * Charles Krauthammer: A referendum on competence
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 1
        * State contribution to TRS to increase by $300 million next year
        * Former Gov. Edgar to campaign with Rauner
        * Esther Cepeda: Elizabeth Pena: Trailblazer on the big screen
        * Andy Shaw: Voter turnout instrumental to reform
        * Ty Fahner: What if the Court rejects pension reform?
        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Quote of the Day: Friday, Oct. 31


        * Upcoming Services (Nov. 1, 2014)
        * Frerichs highlights experience, downstate residence in bid for treasurer
        * Edgar joins Rauner on campaign trail
        * CORRECTION
        * 'Horrific' crash kills 4 in Vandalia
        * Women's event gifts spark GOP protest
        * Spartans get past Pawnee
        * Abandoned boy to stay with foster family
        * Police reports
        * Experience, integrity at heart of Pike race


        * Naperville Central rallies for victory
        * (No heading)
        * Timothy Christian advances to championship game
        * Stevenson recovers against Ross, Lyons
        * Wheaton Warrenville South produces another miracle

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Senate Candidates On Climate Change...
        * Senate Candidates On Climate Change...
        * Senate Candidates On Climate Change...
        * Senate Candidates On Climate Change...
        * Senate Candidates On Climate Change...

        * Tale of the tape: Obama's campaigning a fa......
        * Sen. Mark Kirk questioned by Triton students...

        * IDOT Warns Drivers Of Stepped Up Halloween Weekend Enforcement
        * Facebook Conservatives lose board members over Rauner recommendation
        * Government Failure and What to Do About It [video]
        * Op-Ed: The Ups & Downs of Election Laws, Are Voters Being Tricked at the Door?
        * Andrew Klavan: Is Obamacare Working, Or Are We All Going to Die? [video]
        * Di Leo: The Ebola Epidemic and the American Election
        * The Federal Reserve’s Track Record on Macro Stabilization [video]
        * Where's Weyermuller? Oberweis vs Durbin Debate
        * Muslim Researcher: Women Driving Increases Fornication, Divorce [video]
        * Durbin and Oberweis close campaign on WTTW's Chicago Tonight


        * Editorial: Governors, raining taxpayer $ on Illinois
        * Governor Quinn and Mayor Emanuel Thank New Safe Passage Workers - Nearly 700 Additional Workers Hired This Year to Serve 133 Schools, 69,000 Students Across the City
        * Editorial: Rauner best choice as governor to begin to reverse Illinois’ fortunes
        * Quinn to celebrate Rauner’s UI Labs accomplishment
        * Another Democrat Runs Away From Pat Quinn




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller