Poll: Topinka over Simon 48-37
Wednesday, Jun 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Yet another We Ask America result…
“Republican Judy Baar Topinka leads by 11 points, but the underlying numbers in the crosstabs show significant strength for her re-election. Her lead among Independents is not surprising, but 21 percent of the poll respondents who said they considered themselves to be Democrats also support Topinka,” says We Ask America COO Gregg Durham. “Her 26.71 percent in the city of Chicago is especially strong. Still, the 11-point spread puts Democrat Sheila Simon smack dab in the middle of the hunt. But if Topinka continues to make headway in those key demographics, Simon will run out of real estate to use in catching up.”
JBT leads among indies 50-30. She leads among women 46-36. Simone has an ever so slight one-point advantage in Democratic suburban Cook, and JBT leads Downstate 56-31.
…Adding… The only real difference between this poll and other recent polls I’ve seen or been told about is in the suburban Cook result. My April WAA poll had JBT ahead 48-34 in suburban Cook. Other recent polling apparently shows similar results.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:46 am:
Surprised it’s that close - as we saw in Virginia, low turnout can create a lot of chaos. Look how close Rauner came to blowing the GOP nomination despite all his advantages. Hard to see Simon winning without union support but not as impossible as I had thought.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:47 am:
Let’s be fair.
Once Sheila gets all that Union support…
My bad.
Topinka will run a top shelf, take nothing for granted, campaign, while Sheila will continually playing catch up on a moving sidewalk, just to stand still!
Sheila will be left begging, but when you are disloyal, and think you are this/close to Lisa Madigan, this type of lesson will not be a surprise in the end.
- John A Logan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:48 am:
Punching Judy will not be beaten. She was moving the political pieces around the chess board when SIUheila Simon was putting playing cards in her bicycle spokes.
- walker - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:52 am:
“Conservative” fiscally, and “Liberal” socially, attracts a lot of Independent and usually-Democratic voters.
JBT has earned it.
“Conservative” fiscally, and “No-Agenda Neutral” socially, might not be enough for Rauner.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:57 am:
I dont mean this in a negative to JBT, I am quiet frankly surprised JBT’s margin isnt larger. I would speculate that it will be larger after the actual results are tallied, not closer.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:02 am:
I wished she had run for governor. I owed her a vote after stupidly tossing mine away on Whitney.
Plus, I don’t think my brain can process all these comprehensive detailed plans the other guy is putting out.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:11 am:
Simon notched a 14-point jump in suburban Cook in two months? What’s up with that?
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:12 am:
Poor Duffy Blackburn, the Will County Auditor dropped out so the great Sheila Simon could be the unopposed Democratic nominee.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:16 am:
–Poor Duffy Blackburn–
That’s an even better name for a faux downtown Irish pub than just Duffy Blackburn’s.
How about: “Poor Duffy Blackburn’s Pour House and Snug?”
- Mokenavince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:51 pm:
Judy would have made a great governor. To bad the Republicans gave her very little support. You know like money. The rest is history.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:29 pm:
This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general. I hope we see more.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:
–This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–
How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.
- Raising Kane - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:37 pm:
The poll is totally consistent with WAA poll done for Rich in April, with the exception of Suburban Cook County. Topinka is usually the only GOP candidate that wins there and usually wins by 10 pts. So, if you make that adjustment, its a 14 point race which, given the 10pt generic ballot advantage for the Dems in Illinois is pretty impressive.
It would take a whole lot of cash for Simon to change direction. The rule of thumb is that you have to spend 1M more than your opponent on paid media to pick up 5 points in down ballot races. It would take a lot of cash for either Simon or Frerichs to get in the game.
- The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:28 pm:
The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila. In addition, an anti-incumbent mood could hurt Judy based only on her residual name recognition. Finally, many conservatives may skip that race.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:43 pm:
===How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===
Yes. The only races that are “races” will be for Guv/LG and Treasurer, and Topinka will be an “Ace in the Hole” for Cross.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:
=== wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:
–This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–
How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===
Yes, they will be “wipeouts”. Predictable ones. The cross tabs in these kinds of races sometimes reveal some trends. That’s how. I’d add them into my data calculus, that’s all.
- shore - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:
Topinka is so far to the left and so established that it’ll shock me if she’s not the leading vote getter on the gop ticket. Simon I’ve always thought was a horrible candidate and I really didn’t care for her arrogance and condescension in her debates with art turner and top gun hero jason plummer.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:51 pm:
==The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila.==
People always say this, but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise. It’s been stated before, the “Simon” name couldn’t even win her mayor of Carbondale, the hotbed of Paul Simon fans.
- Brendan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:57 pm:
Simon should have followed her father’s example and run for congress from a downstate district rather than a new statewide office against a popular incumbent with heavy crossover appeal.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:58 pm:
surprising that she is under 50. wonder about the polling.
- The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:59 pm:
I don’t know if Topinka will be an “ace in the hole” for Cross based on the fact that there really aren’t coattails anymore in these elections.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
===but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise===
Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:33 pm:
- The Prince -,
It’s not coattails, you have 3 very possible lopsided races in a row, the last one being a Republican, voters following the last vote cast for Topinka, may follow that with another vote for a GOP candidate.
Let’s put it this way;
You want to be Cross with Topinka leading you in…
Or… be Frerichs being led in by Simon.
It’s not the coattails as much as 3 easy races to decide, 2 Dems, you switch over for Topinka, you going to go back for Frerichs?
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:36 pm:
==Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.==
The losers can’t win thing is bunk. It’s just that after losing campaigns a lot of people don’t want to put themselves out there again because of all the work it takes whether you win or lose. If this was a hard and fast rule, we wouldn’t have President Nixon.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 4:27 pm:
==The losers can’t win thing is bunk.==
The point wasn’t that “losers can’t win”, it was that the idea that “people will vote for her because she’s Paul Simon’s daughter” is bunk. If that didn’t fly on Paul Simon’s home turf, it won’t Statewide. Many if not most general election voters at this point probably have vague or nonexistent memories of Paul Simon (the politician) anyway.
- Joan P. - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 5:17 pm:
As someone who was a great admirer of Paul Simon, I’ll be voting for Topinka. I’m actually shocked that her numbers aren’t higher.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:27 pm:
We need more politicians who shop at Good Will. I like Simon but Topinka seems to keep us up to date on the fiscal bad news.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:51 pm:
No shock here, especially with JBT’s coMMANDing lead among Independents (AND, no matter HOW many “free lunches” Sheila doles out Downstate)…!