SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Topinka over Simon 48-37

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2014

* Yet another We Ask America result

“Republican Judy Baar Topinka leads by 11 points, but the underlying numbers in the crosstabs show significant strength for her re-election. Her lead among Independents is not surprising, but 21 percent of the poll respondents who said they considered themselves to be Democrats also support Topinka,” says We Ask America COO Gregg Durham. “Her 26.71 percent in the city of Chicago is especially strong. Still, the 11-point spread puts Democrat Sheila Simon smack dab in the middle of the hunt. But if Topinka continues to make headway in those key demographics, Simon will run out of real estate to use in catching up.”

JBT leads among indies 50-30. She leads among women 46-36. Simone has an ever so slight one-point advantage in Democratic suburban Cook, and JBT leads Downstate 56-31.

…Adding… The only real difference between this poll and other recent polls I’ve seen or been told about is in the suburban Cook result. My April WAA poll had JBT ahead 48-34 in suburban Cook. Other recent polling apparently shows similar results.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Surprised it’s that close - as we saw in Virginia, low turnout can create a lot of chaos. Look how close Rauner came to blowing the GOP nomination despite all his advantages. Hard to see Simon winning without union support but not as impossible as I had thought.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:47 am:

    Let’s be fair.

    Once Sheila gets all that Union support…

    My bad.

    Topinka will run a top shelf, take nothing for granted, campaign, while Sheila will continually playing catch up on a moving sidewalk, just to stand still!

    Sheila will be left begging, but when you are disloyal, and think you are this/close to Lisa Madigan, this type of lesson will not be a surprise in the end.


  3. - John A Logan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:48 am:

    Punching Judy will not be beaten. She was moving the political pieces around the chess board when SIUheila Simon was putting playing cards in her bicycle spokes.


  4. - walker - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    “Conservative” fiscally, and “Liberal” socially, attracts a lot of Independent and usually-Democratic voters.

    JBT has earned it.

    “Conservative” fiscally, and “No-Agenda Neutral” socially, might not be enough for Rauner.


  5. - Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    I dont mean this in a negative to JBT, I am quiet frankly surprised JBT’s margin isnt larger. I would speculate that it will be larger after the actual results are tallied, not closer.


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    I wished she had run for governor. I owed her a vote after stupidly tossing mine away on Whitney.

    Plus, I don’t think my brain can process all these comprehensive detailed plans the other guy is putting out.


  7. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:11 am:

    Simon notched a 14-point jump in suburban Cook in two months? What’s up with that?


  8. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    Poor Duffy Blackburn, the Will County Auditor dropped out so the great Sheila Simon could be the unopposed Democratic nominee.


  9. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    –Poor Duffy Blackburn–

    That’s an even better name for a faux downtown Irish pub than just Duffy Blackburn’s.

    How about: “Poor Duffy Blackburn’s Pour House and Snug?”


  10. - Mokenavince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Judy would have made a great governor. To bad the Republicans gave her very little support. You know like money. The rest is history.


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general. I hope we see more.


  12. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    –This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–

    How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.


  13. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    The poll is totally consistent with WAA poll done for Rich in April, with the exception of Suburban Cook County. Topinka is usually the only GOP candidate that wins there and usually wins by 10 pts. So, if you make that adjustment, its a 14 point race which, given the 10pt generic ballot advantage for the Dems in Illinois is pretty impressive.

    It would take a whole lot of cash for Simon to change direction. The rule of thumb is that you have to spend 1M more than your opponent on paid media to pick up 5 points in down ballot races. It would take a lot of cash for either Simon or Frerichs to get in the game.


  14. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila. In addition, an anti-incumbent mood could hurt Judy based only on her residual name recognition. Finally, many conservatives may skip that race.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    ===How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===

    Yes. The only races that are “races” will be for Guv/LG and Treasurer, and Topinka will be an “Ace in the Hole” for Cross.


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    –This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–

    How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===

    Yes, they will be “wipeouts”. Predictable ones. The cross tabs in these kinds of races sometimes reveal some trends. That’s how. I’d add them into my data calculus, that’s all.


  17. - shore - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    Topinka is so far to the left and so established that it’ll shock me if she’s not the leading vote getter on the gop ticket. Simon I’ve always thought was a horrible candidate and I really didn’t care for her arrogance and condescension in her debates with art turner and top gun hero jason plummer.


  18. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    ==The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila.==

    People always say this, but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise. It’s been stated before, the “Simon” name couldn’t even win her mayor of Carbondale, the hotbed of Paul Simon fans.


  19. - Brendan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:57 pm:

    Simon should have followed her father’s example and run for congress from a downstate district rather than a new statewide office against a popular incumbent with heavy crossover appeal.


  20. - Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    surprising that she is under 50. wonder about the polling.


  21. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    I don’t know if Topinka will be an “ace in the hole” for Cross based on the fact that there really aren’t coattails anymore in these elections.


  22. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    ===but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise===

    Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    - The Prince -,

    It’s not coattails, you have 3 very possible lopsided races in a row, the last one being a Republican, voters following the last vote cast for Topinka, may follow that with another vote for a GOP candidate.

    Let’s put it this way;

    You want to be Cross with Topinka leading you in…

    Or… be Frerichs being led in by Simon.

    It’s not the coattails as much as 3 easy races to decide, 2 Dems, you switch over for Topinka, you going to go back for Frerichs?


  24. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    ==Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.==

    The losers can’t win thing is bunk. It’s just that after losing campaigns a lot of people don’t want to put themselves out there again because of all the work it takes whether you win or lose. If this was a hard and fast rule, we wouldn’t have President Nixon.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==The losers can’t win thing is bunk.==

    The point wasn’t that “losers can’t win”, it was that the idea that “people will vote for her because she’s Paul Simon’s daughter” is bunk. If that didn’t fly on Paul Simon’s home turf, it won’t Statewide. Many if not most general election voters at this point probably have vague or nonexistent memories of Paul Simon (the politician) anyway.


  26. - Joan P. - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    As someone who was a great admirer of Paul Simon, I’ll be voting for Topinka. I’m actually shocked that her numbers aren’t higher.


  27. - Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:27 pm:

    We need more politicians who shop at Good Will. I like Simon but Topinka seems to keep us up to date on the fiscal bad news.


  28. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:51 pm:

    No shock here, especially with JBT’s coMMANDing lead among Independents (AND, no matter HOW many “free lunches” Sheila doles out Downstate)…!


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner says he'll contribute to "anti-business" president's library
* Today's number: Two-thirds
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Congressional crosstabs
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Is that used iPad stolen? Apple creates tool for would-be buyers to check
        * Lumia 530 available in T-Mobile stores from October 15th, only $79.20
        * Galaxy Note 4 three-point bend test uses a robotic butt
        * After Quietly Acquiring SnapSaves, Groupon Launches Snap, Paying You To Shop
        * ASUS ZenFone 5 and ZenFone 6 also get their Android 4.4
        * LG webOS smartwatch in the works
        * Apple Patents An Advanced Smart Remote App For Apple TV And iTunes

        * Have a Plan Before Asking For Help to Get Better Responses
        * Stellé Audio Mini-Clutch Is Both a Speaker and an Actual Clutch
        * LG may be working on a smartwatch running webOS
        * Keep Your Car Battery Healthy With These Discounted Chargers
        * Samsung Galaxy Alpha Gets Taken Apart By iFixit
        * Angry Birds Maker Rovio to Cut Up to 130 Jobs
        * Durio Sound A 24-bit 192kHz DAC Raspberry Pi Sound Card (video)

        * Guide to National League rooting interests for White Sox fans
        * Third-base coach McEwing to interview for D-backs job
        * Guide to American League rooting interests for White Sox fans
        * Anderson, Edwards prospects to watch in AFL
        * Manager notes: How Robin Ventura and Chris Sale get along
        * Voting underway to decide Hank Aaron Awards
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Major Person in Gov Quinn's Anti-Violence Progr.....
        * Governors Make Fiscal Progress..
        * And the race continues..
        * Grading America’s Governors..
        * Political infighting..
        * The 10 Most Vulnerable House Members..
        * The Race for Attorney General Tightens Up in 9 .....


        * Obama hits Chicago to stump for Gov. Quinn
        * AP PHOTOS: Lines linger for famed Chicago hot dogs
        * Waukegan schools close as teachers' strike looms
        * 20-years in prison for hit-run crash that killed 2
        * Official: Donations drying up for Lincoln library
        * Respiratory virus seen in 4 deaths; role unclear
        * Obama in Chicago for political appearances
        * Flight operations at Chicago airports improving
        * Governor candidates' views on Obama library evolve
        * Illinois Woman, son charged with meth conspiracy

        * Governor candidates’ views on Obama library evolve
        * Obama in Chicago for political appearances
        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * ALPLM at center of legislative hearing in Chicago
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify
        * Appellate court: State workers owed back wages
        * Quinn leans on top Democratic support — Obamas, Clinton
        * IDOC investigation prompts state prison warden to retire
        * Lawmaker panel plans to resume anti-violence program investigation
        * Quinn touts first year of Affordable Care Act

        * Warren Buffett wants to sell you a car
        * Sears to sell most of Sears Canada stake
        * Blade runner: She took up hockey at 40
        * Accessorized for the office
        * Shrimp farming in Indiana: Believe it


        * Tragedy demands review of DCFS
        * Ease up on school budgets permanently
        * Keep the heat on political corruption
        * Burge leaving prison, but a mess remains
        * Emanuel prods sister agencies to mandate $13-an-hour wage
        * The thug life runs deep
        * Vigil held for Skokie teens; two Niles North seniors shot, one killed
        * Taxi reforms steer in the right direction
        * Thunderstorms early Thursday could disrupt O’Hare, Midway flights
        * Northeastern Illinois University unveils flashy new building on NW Side


        * Arrests in theft of $250,000 worth of watches from Gold Coast store
        * Police investigate shooting death at Des Plaines gun range
        * Neighbors lose a protector to a street robbery
        * Coyote expected to recover after getting stuck in car grill
        * Burge leaves prison today after serving time for lying about police torture
        * Prosecutors in Ferguson case probe report of jury misconduct
        * 5 wounded in separate city shootings
        * Waukegan schools closed because of teachers strike
        * Few red light camera refunds, spikes unexplained
        * 1 dead, 2 wounded in overnight shootings


        * History Series: The First Illinois Legislature
        * Donations Drying Up For Lincoln Library Foundation
        * LLCC Announces New Ag Programs
        * Tim Landis: Bike Lanes, Medical Marijuana And Meat
        * Clock Ticking On Illinois Prison Crowding
        * Decatur Unemployment Shows Biggest Drop In Nation
        * Quinn Lauds Affordable Care Act, Backs Down From State Marketplace
        * A Redo On Redistricting
        * Polls Showing Illinois Governor's Race A Draw
        * Bruce Rauner, Before He Was A Candidate (Author Interview)


        * Our View: Lawmakers, stay away from the IHSA
        * On Lincoln’s Side: Lincoln gambles on Nevada
        * Brian Gaines: Why Illinois needs redistricting reform
        * George Will: A new case for term limits
        * Eugene Robinson: Get the authorization
        * Bernard Schoenburg: The long, short of public perceptions of candidates for governor
        * Governor candidates’ views on Obama library evolve
        * Obama in Chicago for political appearances
        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify


        * Daily business briefing: U.S. unemployment benefits continue to drop
        * Jim Dey: Sorry, lawyers: This judge won't budge
        * Honoring a Frances Nelson family
        * In Quinn's corner: The president
        * No work on Market Street railroad bridge before March
        * Top of the Morning, Oct. 2, 2014
        * Monty: Time for others to 'step forward'
        * CUMTD's Tom Costello 10/2/2014
        * Hotels get warning about taxes
        * Potentially severe weather expected Thursday


        * Skies now more friendly for kids on autism spectrum
        * Tesla's Musk says company will introduce new product next week
        * Manteno woman known as ‘Mustard Lady'
        * White Ohio women sue over sperm from black donor
        * Airports like O'Hare a focus point in Ebola battle

        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement in...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...

        * Opinion: How Dick Clark Changed Music...
        * Opinion: How Dick Clark Changed Music...
        * 2012 Predictions Revisited: What the Seers......
        * 2012 Predictions Revisited: What the Seers......
        * 2012 Predictions Revisited: What the Seers......

        * Governor race focuses on labor, unemployment...
        * Israel On The Outs Over Iran?...

        * Central Illinois Republican Mayor featured in new Quinn campaign ad
        * Mainstream environmentalists flip out over stingray catch [video]
        * Raunerian ethics and voter fraud. Here and in North Carolina.
        * Waukegan strike. 1,200 teachers. 14,000 students.
        * Put 'Burge' name up with 'Capone' as those who '"got away" with something
        * State Senator Chris Nybo has new office up and running
        * Op-Ed: We need Pro-Life votes for Rauner to win
        * Karen Lewis. We can’t think in silos any longer.
        * Family friendly.
        * Ives and Connelly team up for forum on proposed changes to school funding


        * Screwed Up
        * Jobs Governor
        * Wake Up
        * Rauner Launches Three New TV Ads
        * Quinn must take lame duck tax vote off the table




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller