LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: Topinka over Simon 48-37

Wednesday, Jun 18, 2014

* Yet another We Ask America result

“Republican Judy Baar Topinka leads by 11 points, but the underlying numbers in the crosstabs show significant strength for her re-election. Her lead among Independents is not surprising, but 21 percent of the poll respondents who said they considered themselves to be Democrats also support Topinka,” says We Ask America COO Gregg Durham. “Her 26.71 percent in the city of Chicago is especially strong. Still, the 11-point spread puts Democrat Sheila Simon smack dab in the middle of the hunt. But if Topinka continues to make headway in those key demographics, Simon will run out of real estate to use in catching up.”

JBT leads among indies 50-30. She leads among women 46-36. Simone has an ever so slight one-point advantage in Democratic suburban Cook, and JBT leads Downstate 56-31.

…Adding… The only real difference between this poll and other recent polls I’ve seen or been told about is in the suburban Cook result. My April WAA poll had JBT ahead 48-34 in suburban Cook. Other recent polling apparently shows similar results.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Surprised it’s that close - as we saw in Virginia, low turnout can create a lot of chaos. Look how close Rauner came to blowing the GOP nomination despite all his advantages. Hard to see Simon winning without union support but not as impossible as I had thought.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:47 am:

    Let’s be fair.

    Once Sheila gets all that Union support…

    My bad.

    Topinka will run a top shelf, take nothing for granted, campaign, while Sheila will continually playing catch up on a moving sidewalk, just to stand still!

    Sheila will be left begging, but when you are disloyal, and think you are this/close to Lisa Madigan, this type of lesson will not be a surprise in the end.


  3. - John A Logan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:48 am:

    Punching Judy will not be beaten. She was moving the political pieces around the chess board when SIUheila Simon was putting playing cards in her bicycle spokes.


  4. - walker - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    “Conservative” fiscally, and “Liberal” socially, attracts a lot of Independent and usually-Democratic voters.

    JBT has earned it.

    “Conservative” fiscally, and “No-Agenda Neutral” socially, might not be enough for Rauner.


  5. - Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    I dont mean this in a negative to JBT, I am quiet frankly surprised JBT’s margin isnt larger. I would speculate that it will be larger after the actual results are tallied, not closer.


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    I wished she had run for governor. I owed her a vote after stupidly tossing mine away on Whitney.

    Plus, I don’t think my brain can process all these comprehensive detailed plans the other guy is putting out.


  7. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:11 am:

    Simon notched a 14-point jump in suburban Cook in two months? What’s up with that?


  8. - Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    Poor Duffy Blackburn, the Will County Auditor dropped out so the great Sheila Simon could be the unopposed Democratic nominee.


  9. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    –Poor Duffy Blackburn–

    That’s an even better name for a faux downtown Irish pub than just Duffy Blackburn’s.

    How about: “Poor Duffy Blackburn’s Pour House and Snug?”


  10. - Mokenavince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Judy would have made a great governor. To bad the Republicans gave her very little support. You know like money. The rest is history.


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general. I hope we see more.


  12. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    –This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–

    How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.


  13. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    The poll is totally consistent with WAA poll done for Rich in April, with the exception of Suburban Cook County. Topinka is usually the only GOP candidate that wins there and usually wins by 10 pts. So, if you make that adjustment, its a 14 point race which, given the 10pt generic ballot advantage for the Dems in Illinois is pretty impressive.

    It would take a whole lot of cash for Simon to change direction. The rule of thumb is that you have to spend 1M more than your opponent on paid media to pick up 5 points in down ballot races. It would take a lot of cash for either Simon or Frerichs to get in the game.


  14. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila. In addition, an anti-incumbent mood could hurt Judy based only on her residual name recognition. Finally, many conservatives may skip that race.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    ===How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===

    Yes. The only races that are “races” will be for Guv/LG and Treasurer, and Topinka will be an “Ace in the Hole” for Cross.


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    –This is a race is may be worth tracking to tell us more about the mood of the electorate in general.–

    How’s that? It will be a wipeout, as will the SOS and AG races.===

    Yes, they will be “wipeouts”. Predictable ones. The cross tabs in these kinds of races sometimes reveal some trends. That’s how. I’d add them into my data calculus, that’s all.


  17. - shore - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    Topinka is so far to the left and so established that it’ll shock me if she’s not the leading vote getter on the gop ticket. Simon I’ve always thought was a horrible candidate and I really didn’t care for her arrogance and condescension in her debates with art turner and top gun hero jason plummer.


  18. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    ==The race will not be a wipeout; many voters respected Paul Simon and will, by extension vote for Sheila.==

    People always say this, but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise. It’s been stated before, the “Simon” name couldn’t even win her mayor of Carbondale, the hotbed of Paul Simon fans.


  19. - Brendan - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:57 pm:

    Simon should have followed her father’s example and run for congress from a downstate district rather than a new statewide office against a popular incumbent with heavy crossover appeal.


  20. - Amalia - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    surprising that she is under 50. wonder about the polling.


  21. - The Prince - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    I don’t know if Topinka will be an “ace in the hole” for Cross based on the fact that there really aren’t coattails anymore in these elections.


  22. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    ===but real world results in any general election she’s been in (not tagging along on a ticket) has proven otherwise===

    Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:33 pm:

    - The Prince -,

    It’s not coattails, you have 3 very possible lopsided races in a row, the last one being a Republican, voters following the last vote cast for Topinka, may follow that with another vote for a GOP candidate.

    Let’s put it this way;

    You want to be Cross with Topinka leading you in…

    Or… be Frerichs being led in by Simon.

    It’s not the coattails as much as 3 easy races to decide, 2 Dems, you switch over for Topinka, you going to go back for Frerichs?


  24. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    ==Meh. She won city council, lost mayor. It’s just one race.==

    The losers can’t win thing is bunk. It’s just that after losing campaigns a lot of people don’t want to put themselves out there again because of all the work it takes whether you win or lose. If this was a hard and fast rule, we wouldn’t have President Nixon.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    ==The losers can’t win thing is bunk.==

    The point wasn’t that “losers can’t win”, it was that the idea that “people will vote for her because she’s Paul Simon’s daughter” is bunk. If that didn’t fly on Paul Simon’s home turf, it won’t Statewide. Many if not most general election voters at this point probably have vague or nonexistent memories of Paul Simon (the politician) anyway.


  26. - Joan P. - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    As someone who was a great admirer of Paul Simon, I’ll be voting for Topinka. I’m actually shocked that her numbers aren’t higher.


  27. - Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:27 pm:

    We need more politicians who shop at Good Will. I like Simon but Topinka seems to keep us up to date on the fiscal bad news.


  28. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Jun 18, 14 @ 8:51 pm:

    No shock here, especially with JBT’s coMMANDing lead among Independents (AND, no matter HOW many “free lunches” Sheila doles out Downstate)…!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Deal outline begins to emerge
* Question of the day
* Rauner proposal funds abstinence education grants
* Social services implode as middle class shrinks
* Reporters are understandably freaking out about Chicago's violence
* IDPH director violated rules, judge declares, so med-mar coverage must include PTSD
* "It was as if a mini-Capitol had sprouted"
* Kirk slams Duckworth and "crooked Democratic machine in Springfield" which defended her
* A little late
* Group warns Rauner stopgap does "nothing" for human service provider contracts
* "The wasteland that is Illinois"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* *** LIVE *** Leaders meeting and session Coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Stay tuned
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Android Pay blossoms to a whopping 115 new US banks and credit unions
* Verizon has remote homes and businesses covered with new 4G LTE Network Extender
* In case you needed it, here’s further confirmation the Galaxy Note 7 will be ‘edgy’
* iPhone 7 Force-Touch Home button, Galaxy Note 7 battery & more – Pocketnow Daily
* OK-Google.io – Interactive way to learn OK Google commands
* Galaxy S8 could also get Galaxy J2’s Smart Glow
* Wi-Fi 802.11ac Wave 2 could double speeds

* For first time since big trade, Shields delivers
* Last day to cast your All-Star vote
* Sox hold off Twins, net Shields 1st Chicago W
* White Sox turn to Rodon in finale with Twins
* Sprained wrist to sideline Melky 3 or 4 days
* Shields' win gets big assist from Eaton
* Sox hold off Twins, net Shields 1st Chicago W

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois governor, leaders negotiating stopgap .....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....
* Illinois lawmakers set to vote on stopgap spend.....


* Illinois governor, lawmakers nearing budget deal
* Former Chicago fire official faces misdemeanor over crash
* Excerpts from editorials on Illinois' budget impasse
* Illinois newspapers tell Rauner, Democrats, 'Do Your Job'
* Illinois owes $82,000 in utility bills for Peoria
* Lawsuit filed by ex-officer against police chief dismissed
* Pet owners urged to protect pets during July 4 celebrations
* Money donated in bid to make Illinois site national park
* GOP, Democrats say progress made in Illinois budget talks
* Illinois lawmakers say progress made on stopgap budget

* Deal to fund schools, 6 months of state services nearing passage
* Illinois Republicans say deal close on six-month budget, school funding
* Illinois governor, leaders negotiating stopgap budget
* Follow live: Budget negotiations at the Illinois Capitol
* 'Daily Show' makes fun of Illinois budget situation
* State owes $82,000 in utility bills for Corrections facility in Peoria
* Carlinville train station upgrade dependent on state budget
* Governor, leaders say progress made on budget deal
* Deadrick Wolfer suspends House race vs. Scherer
* Higher education coalition urges full funding for both 2016, 2017

* The deal that will get Illinois a stopgap budget
* Accretive Health restructuring plan cuts 41 employees
* Gannett's little digital deal has a takeaway for Tronc
* Here are details of that United labor deal
* It's a miracle! Cook County Board moves toward merger of clerk, recorder jobs


* 2 dead, 13 wounded in Chicago shootings Wednesday
* 15-year-old boy, woman shot in Belmont Cragin
* Man wounded in Uptown shooting
* Man shot in West Englewood
* Inbound Skyway closed after semi overturns, starts leaking fuel
* 17-year-old girl shot in Chicago Lawn
* Man shot in Austin
* Joakim Noah set to join the Knicks
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for June 30, 2016
* Dear Abby: Denied handouts, brother lashes out at his family


* 2 dead, 9 injured in Chicago shootings
* Grizzly bear kills 38-year-old mountain biker near Glacier National Park
* Rodrigo Duterte, 'The Punisher,' sworn in as president of Philippines
* Istanbul airport attackers seized on chaos to cause carnage, kill 42
* Bulls figure to be bottom-feeders in NBA free agency
* Bulls' Joakim Noah expected to sign with Knicks for $18M a year: reports
* James Shields finally shows up, gets standing ovation in White Sox victory
* Trump dares business to flee Republican Party
* Inside the Democratic Party's showdown over Israel-Palestine
* 'Tesla Solar' wants to be the Apple store for electricity


* Deal to fund schools, 6 months of state services nearing passage
* Bernard Schoenburg: A break in the acrimony? Some OK signs
* Guest column: Congressional delegation must aid Illinois patients
* Eugene Robinson: Brexit's cautionary tale for Trump supporters
* George F. Will: The hinge of the Great War
* Illinois Republicans say deal close on six-month budget, school funding
* Follow live: Budget negotiations at the Illinois Capitol
* 'Daily Show' makes fun of Illinois budget situation
* State owes $82,000 in utility bills for Corrections facility in Peoria
* Enough: Illinois' budget standoff must be resolved


* PODCAST: Sports Talk 6-29-16
* PODCAST: Little League 3rd place game 6-29-16
* PODCAST: Little League 6-29-16
* MTD agrees to buy 5 buildings near terminal for $1.16 million
* MTD agrees to buy 5 buildings near Illinois Terminal for $1.16 million
* Grentz reflects on death of icon
* Leman ready for turnaround
* UI hoops recruit glance: Nojel Eastern
* Glendale Commons expansion is "God-sent"
* For the homeless, Glendale Commons expansion is 'God-sent'


* Germany vs Italy: Heavyweights collide at Euro 2016
* Turkish state media say 13 suspects detained over airport attack, including 3 foreign nationals
* Official: suicide bomb attack kills 30 Afghan trainee police
* Michiana crops shaping up nicely thanks to good weather
* Father-son duo renovating dilapidated schoolhouse

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois to get $17 million for HIV assist......

* U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee propo......
* US Senate supports refugee assistance to A......
* US Senate supports refugee assistance to A......

* Cartoon Of The Day
* Suicide Now 2nd Leading Cause Of Death Among IL Youth
* Drug Overdose Death Reportedly 'Linked' To Illinois Budget Impasse
* Cartoon of the Day - 6/24/16 Rauner impact of cuts to social services
* Cartoon of the Day - 6/29/16 - Texas abortion decision
* Facebook for fluff, not the news?
* Thomas More Society: Supreme Court views vital protection as "unnecessary"
* Republicans hopeful about budget deal
* Governor, Local Mayors Urge Passage of Stopgap Budget and Education Funding
* Former Jack Ryan campaign staffer signs on with Trump


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller