SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sabato upgrades Bustos race to “Likely Democratic”

Thursday, Jun 19, 2014

* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed some race ratings, including one Illinois congressional campaign

Rep. Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17) — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic:

Bustos won a tough race against former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) in 2012, and Schilling is running again. However, conversations with partisans on both sides of the race suggest that other contests in Illinois are looking more competitive, such as Democratic-held IL-10 and IL-12 and Republican-held IL-13.

Bustos has more than triple the cash on hand of Schilling and, in recently announced multi-district ad buys, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — the parties’ House campaign arms — ignored this district (although House Majority PAC, a kind of unaffiliated shadow DCCC, did make some future ad buys in markets here).

It’s worth noting that the only district Republicans hold that matches President Obama’s 57% performance here is the open CA-31, where we favor a Democratic takeover. Obama did worse in every other Republican-held district.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Well, money is probably a big factor, as discussed these past days, it is becoming more clear that Enyart, today, seems to be the battle both sides want to engage.


  2. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    This district was designed by Madigan to be a Democratic district.

    She can only lose it and that probably won’t happen.


  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    ===district was designed by Madigan===

    The congressional districts were all drawn by Cullerton.


  4. - Hey There - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Campers, the 12th CD is a much more competitive district than many people believe especially in a non-presidential. I was surprised that the 12th CD was not drawn more Democratic in the last remap. Costello had it then and I’m sure, as a senior incumbent with close ties to the Speaker, he could have gotten a more Democratic district if he had wanted one. Costello was going to be safe regardless, though, and he probably knew then that he’d be retiring soon so who cares.


  5. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:39 pm:

    People are forgetting this district was not drawn for Enyart. He joined the race in June of 2012


  6. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:40 pm:

    Schilling raised a little more than Bustos last time out and got beat by six points.

    The money’s not there this time and it’s getting late.


  7. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    Bustos hasn’t a ground game, unlike Evans built up during his 24 years of service, and her message is less than appealing to Evans’ progressive base. There aren’t any legislative races in Peoria to get out minority voting and I doubt there are any in the rest of the 17th District. Bustos underperformed the Democratic performance in 2012 by 4 points. If she does that in 2014 she will move on to her 7 figure health care lobbyist job a little earlier than she expected.


  8. - Southwest Cook - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    “Upgrades”? Depends on your point of view, I guess. I would say “Downgrades” since the race is seen as less competitive than before.


  9. - lil enchilada - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Schilling had some kind of nerdy, regular guy appeal when he ran the first time. Somehow he’s lost that. Bobby’s mojo is gone and he is not generating any interest or support from people who are not GOP insiders. Plus Bustos ain’t no Phil Hare


  10. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    Domo arigato Mr. Sabato.

    Sorry, it’s hot and my self-control button has been fried.


  11. - A guy... - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    I see this one bouncing around til close to November. This is a place where the National trends might have a greater impact. Schilling over Hare was one of the more surprising surprises that election night. This one could go back and forth for a while.


  12. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:02 pm:

    So Cullerton really drew the maps and Madigan played no or an insignificant role in this process??? Discounting the fact that both submitted names for the respective Senate and House committees for this redistricting.

    Yep, Cullerton has always been the real force and brains in the Illinois Democratic Party.


  13. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Cullerton insists that he drew the maps, not MJM. He actually gets peevish about the media giving MJM the “credit.” LOL


  14. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:16 pm:

    Mr. Miller,

    I bet he does! Me thinks he does protest too much!
    Will never be proven one way or another. But all of us political junkies can observe from many past experiences and make up their own minds.


  15. - Turtle - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 9:53 pm:

    Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.


  16. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 11:25 pm:

    –Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.–

    I don’t know about that. I was a reporter out in the Quads in the 80s and practically made a living covering layoffs at CAT, Deere, IH, Case, etc.

    They know the score out there. They’re not going to hang that on Schilling, Quinn or Obama.

    They’d had a recession-proof economy since WWII up til the 80s. Things changed.

    Komatsu came into the U.S. market. And the U.S.-based companies started setting up in Asian markets that were hot.

    Schilling can’t raise money. His old friends aren’t returning calls.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Monday
* The Pat Quinn rehab tour continues
* Question of the day
* IML, firefighters unite on "public duty rule"
* Nuclear Energy: Vital for Illinois’ Clean Power Plan Goals
* Tackling opioid overdoses
* Why didn't Hastert's secret come out sooner?
* A silly idea
* AG Madigan wants GA to eliminate statute of limitations for felony criminal sexual assault and sexual abuse crimes against children
* Caption contest!
* A very weird and specific law applies only to one county clerk
* Today's quotable
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Nokia Lumia 520 cedes top spot in global Windows Phone usage to Lumia 535
* Drake's New Album 'Views' Now Available Exclusively on iTunes
* Google Translate turns ten, supports 103 languages, serves over 500 million people
* Twitter Moves to 'News' Category in App Store to Boost Visibility
* AT&T and T-Mobile are both rolling out Marshmallow for the LG G3
* Sony appears to be working on a high-end compact phone with amazing cameras
* Think age is just a number? Then get the OG Moto X (2nd gen) for $200 ($150 off)

* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* Danish among top prospect performers Thursday
* Danks 'not throwing enough quality strikes'
* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* Rodon looks to stifle O's, help White Sox even set
* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* White Sox recall game in empty Oriole Park

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Gov. Rauner Heckled At U of I Student Innovator.....
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health c.....
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health c.....


* Board to review 15 conditions for Illinois medical marijuana
* 5 baby bison born at Illinois grassland preserve
* EXCHANGE: Nurturing new cyclists goal of Bikes Change Lives
* Bus catches fire on Illinois highway, delaying field trip
* Chicago cop was shot when fleeing suspect tossed gun
* Chicago testing water at small number of schools for lead
* Durbin seeks national park status for Cahokia Mounds
* 6 men charged with dismembering Champaign woman
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Second man charged in fatal shooting of Chicago boy, 7

* Young offenders hindered by system, panel finds
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Report: Laws holding back juveniles with criminal records
* Business leaders say early childhood education funding is key to filling STEM jobs in future
* Rauner says he'll consider paying for special session to reach budget agreement
* Municipal League wants law that provides broad immunity to police, firefighters
* Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert sentenced to 15 months in prison
* The Latest: Hastert says he 'mistreated' athletes he coached
* Local-government payments on $168M tax error not due before 2017
* Man who says former U.S. Rep. Hastert sexually abused him speaks at sentencing hearing

* How pricey paper invites pay off
* The owner of Chocolate Twist answers our random questions
* The triumph of business casual
* Settlement will halt selling of above-market gas under Nicor name
* Third time's a charm for Sodikoff's River North spot


* Police: Man tried to lure Albany Park student into Jeep
* Police: Attempted child luring reported in West Ridge
* Man shot in East Garfield Park
* Police: 2 robbed at gunpoint in Logan Square
* Police warn of robbers targeting lone CTA riders in Lincoln Park
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for April 29
* Dear Abby: Her hypochondria is getting unhealthy
* Brother, others related to San Bernardino shooters arrested
* Lakewood man wins $550,000 lottery prize
* Bears top pick Leonard Floyd is no sure thing


* Will Eric Ferguson get 'fun call' from Kelly Ripa?
* Fights follow Trump rally in Southern California, about 20 arrested
* Judge reveals FBI's first question for Hastert: Is your family safe?
* Chicago seeking 'smart-city' tech solutions to improve city life
* Morning Spin: Karl Rove snubs Mark Kirk in Senate Republican fundraising email
* The upside of an insane election
* New construction home in Glen Ellyn: $799,990
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 4/29/16
* Police: Man robs CTA riders on North Side
* Attempted child luring reported in Albany Park, West Rogers Park


* Young offenders hindered by system, panel finds
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Report: Laws holding back juveniles with criminal records
* Bernard Schoenburg: PAC-leader Proft given 'public affairs' radio slot by policy institute
* Their View: The politics and policies of CEO pay
* Omar Duque: Nuclear energy vital for Illinois’ businesses
* George F. Will: What happens in Puerto Rico won't stay there
* Business leaders say early childhood education funding is key to filling STEM jobs in future
* Rauner says he'll consider paying for special session to reach budget agreement
* Municipal League wants law that provides broad immunity to police, firefighters


* Top of the morning, April 29, 2016
* F&S noose incident prompts probes
* Thursday's highlights: Sages rally past Sabers
* UI roundup: Baseball, softball condense schedules
* Nontenure faculty on picket line
* UPDATED: Bus fire delays students' trip to Chicago
* UI senior crosses item off running list
* Bollant lands second 2017 commit
* Running way of life for LeRoy man
* Boston Marathon director speaking here


* Forget the NFL Draft -- here's our TV character draft
* Dawn Patrol: Wood Dale bank robbed; Bears draft Georgia LB
* Investigators look at overdose in Prince death
* Who the Bears should target in Rounds 2-3 today
* Good Shepherd ready to show off private rooms, other features

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin seeks national park status for Caho......
* Durbin seeks national park status for Caho......
* Sen. Durbin wants to make Cahokia Mounds a......
* Durbin seeks national park status for Caho......

* Morning Spin: Karl Rove snubs Mark Kirk in......
* Duckworth campaign flips wigs on Senate ri......

* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Fox 32 News Helps Driver Fight Ticket From Confusing Signs
* Does Rauner think only rich need apply?
* The Clown Prince
* Chicago Launches Water Testing Programs For Homes, Schools
* Chicago Rolls Out Water Testing Programs For Homes, Schools
* Non-Tenured U Of I Faculty Begin 5-Day Strike
* CPS Preps For Possible Teachers Strike
* More Than $22 Million Spent On Illinois Primary Election Ads
* Where Do The 2016 Presidential Candidates Stand On Higher Education Funding?


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller