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Sabato upgrades Bustos race to “Likely Democratic”

Thursday, Jun 19, 2014

* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed some race ratings, including one Illinois congressional campaign

Rep. Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17) — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic:

Bustos won a tough race against former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) in 2012, and Schilling is running again. However, conversations with partisans on both sides of the race suggest that other contests in Illinois are looking more competitive, such as Democratic-held IL-10 and IL-12 and Republican-held IL-13.

Bustos has more than triple the cash on hand of Schilling and, in recently announced multi-district ad buys, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — the parties’ House campaign arms — ignored this district (although House Majority PAC, a kind of unaffiliated shadow DCCC, did make some future ad buys in markets here).

It’s worth noting that the only district Republicans hold that matches President Obama’s 57% performance here is the open CA-31, where we favor a Democratic takeover. Obama did worse in every other Republican-held district.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Well, money is probably a big factor, as discussed these past days, it is becoming more clear that Enyart, today, seems to be the battle both sides want to engage.


  2. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    This district was designed by Madigan to be a Democratic district.

    She can only lose it and that probably won’t happen.


  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    ===district was designed by Madigan===

    The congressional districts were all drawn by Cullerton.


  4. - Hey There - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Campers, the 12th CD is a much more competitive district than many people believe especially in a non-presidential. I was surprised that the 12th CD was not drawn more Democratic in the last remap. Costello had it then and I’m sure, as a senior incumbent with close ties to the Speaker, he could have gotten a more Democratic district if he had wanted one. Costello was going to be safe regardless, though, and he probably knew then that he’d be retiring soon so who cares.


  5. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:39 pm:

    People are forgetting this district was not drawn for Enyart. He joined the race in June of 2012


  6. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:40 pm:

    Schilling raised a little more than Bustos last time out and got beat by six points.

    The money’s not there this time and it’s getting late.


  7. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    Bustos hasn’t a ground game, unlike Evans built up during his 24 years of service, and her message is less than appealing to Evans’ progressive base. There aren’t any legislative races in Peoria to get out minority voting and I doubt there are any in the rest of the 17th District. Bustos underperformed the Democratic performance in 2012 by 4 points. If she does that in 2014 she will move on to her 7 figure health care lobbyist job a little earlier than she expected.


  8. - Southwest Cook - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    “Upgrades”? Depends on your point of view, I guess. I would say “Downgrades” since the race is seen as less competitive than before.


  9. - lil enchilada - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Schilling had some kind of nerdy, regular guy appeal when he ran the first time. Somehow he’s lost that. Bobby’s mojo is gone and he is not generating any interest or support from people who are not GOP insiders. Plus Bustos ain’t no Phil Hare


  10. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    Domo arigato Mr. Sabato.

    Sorry, it’s hot and my self-control button has been fried.


  11. - A guy... - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    I see this one bouncing around til close to November. This is a place where the National trends might have a greater impact. Schilling over Hare was one of the more surprising surprises that election night. This one could go back and forth for a while.


  12. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:02 pm:

    So Cullerton really drew the maps and Madigan played no or an insignificant role in this process??? Discounting the fact that both submitted names for the respective Senate and House committees for this redistricting.

    Yep, Cullerton has always been the real force and brains in the Illinois Democratic Party.


  13. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Cullerton insists that he drew the maps, not MJM. He actually gets peevish about the media giving MJM the “credit.” LOL


  14. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:16 pm:

    Mr. Miller,

    I bet he does! Me thinks he does protest too much!
    Will never be proven one way or another. But all of us political junkies can observe from many past experiences and make up their own minds.


  15. - Turtle - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 9:53 pm:

    Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.


  16. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 11:25 pm:

    –Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.–

    I don’t know about that. I was a reporter out in the Quads in the 80s and practically made a living covering layoffs at CAT, Deere, IH, Case, etc.

    They know the score out there. They’re not going to hang that on Schilling, Quinn or Obama.

    They’d had a recession-proof economy since WWII up til the 80s. Things changed.

    Komatsu came into the U.S. market. And the U.S.-based companies started setting up in Asian markets that were hot.

    Schilling can’t raise money. His old friends aren’t returning calls.


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