SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sabato upgrades Bustos race to “Likely Democratic”

Thursday, Jun 19, 2014

* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed some race ratings, including one Illinois congressional campaign

Rep. Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17) — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic:

Bustos won a tough race against former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) in 2012, and Schilling is running again. However, conversations with partisans on both sides of the race suggest that other contests in Illinois are looking more competitive, such as Democratic-held IL-10 and IL-12 and Republican-held IL-13.

Bustos has more than triple the cash on hand of Schilling and, in recently announced multi-district ad buys, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — the parties’ House campaign arms — ignored this district (although House Majority PAC, a kind of unaffiliated shadow DCCC, did make some future ad buys in markets here).

It’s worth noting that the only district Republicans hold that matches President Obama’s 57% performance here is the open CA-31, where we favor a Democratic takeover. Obama did worse in every other Republican-held district.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Well, money is probably a big factor, as discussed these past days, it is becoming more clear that Enyart, today, seems to be the battle both sides want to engage.


  2. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    This district was designed by Madigan to be a Democratic district.

    She can only lose it and that probably won’t happen.


  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    ===district was designed by Madigan===

    The congressional districts were all drawn by Cullerton.


  4. - Hey There - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Campers, the 12th CD is a much more competitive district than many people believe especially in a non-presidential. I was surprised that the 12th CD was not drawn more Democratic in the last remap. Costello had it then and I’m sure, as a senior incumbent with close ties to the Speaker, he could have gotten a more Democratic district if he had wanted one. Costello was going to be safe regardless, though, and he probably knew then that he’d be retiring soon so who cares.


  5. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:39 pm:

    People are forgetting this district was not drawn for Enyart. He joined the race in June of 2012


  6. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:40 pm:

    Schilling raised a little more than Bustos last time out and got beat by six points.

    The money’s not there this time and it’s getting late.


  7. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    Bustos hasn’t a ground game, unlike Evans built up during his 24 years of service, and her message is less than appealing to Evans’ progressive base. There aren’t any legislative races in Peoria to get out minority voting and I doubt there are any in the rest of the 17th District. Bustos underperformed the Democratic performance in 2012 by 4 points. If she does that in 2014 she will move on to her 7 figure health care lobbyist job a little earlier than she expected.


  8. - Southwest Cook - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    “Upgrades”? Depends on your point of view, I guess. I would say “Downgrades” since the race is seen as less competitive than before.


  9. - lil enchilada - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Schilling had some kind of nerdy, regular guy appeal when he ran the first time. Somehow he’s lost that. Bobby’s mojo is gone and he is not generating any interest or support from people who are not GOP insiders. Plus Bustos ain’t no Phil Hare


  10. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    Domo arigato Mr. Sabato.

    Sorry, it’s hot and my self-control button has been fried.


  11. - A guy... - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    I see this one bouncing around til close to November. This is a place where the National trends might have a greater impact. Schilling over Hare was one of the more surprising surprises that election night. This one could go back and forth for a while.


  12. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:02 pm:

    So Cullerton really drew the maps and Madigan played no or an insignificant role in this process??? Discounting the fact that both submitted names for the respective Senate and House committees for this redistricting.

    Yep, Cullerton has always been the real force and brains in the Illinois Democratic Party.


  13. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Cullerton insists that he drew the maps, not MJM. He actually gets peevish about the media giving MJM the “credit.” LOL


  14. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:16 pm:

    Mr. Miller,

    I bet he does! Me thinks he does protest too much!
    Will never be proven one way or another. But all of us political junkies can observe from many past experiences and make up their own minds.


  15. - Turtle - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 9:53 pm:

    Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.


  16. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 11:25 pm:

    –Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.–

    I don’t know about that. I was a reporter out in the Quads in the 80s and practically made a living covering layoffs at CAT, Deere, IH, Case, etc.

    They know the score out there. They’re not going to hang that on Schilling, Quinn or Obama.

    They’d had a recession-proof economy since WWII up til the 80s. Things changed.

    Komatsu came into the U.S. market. And the U.S.-based companies started setting up in Asian markets that were hot.

    Schilling can’t raise money. His old friends aren’t returning calls.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 - Frerichs response *** Former Democratic state treasurer endorses Cross - Cites bipartisanship, Israel bonds as reasons
* Prison reform group responds to new Rauner ad
* Quinn hit on botched early prisoner release program
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Friday's cable TV buys
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Thoughts on the iPhone 6 from a Windows Phone user (Video)
        * Oculus Rift 'Crescent Bay' prototype hands-on: A VR alien waved at me and I waved back
        * Our 5 favourite new Windows Phone apps of the week
        * Lumia instagramer of the week: John Koliogiannis
        * Microsoft branding
        * iPhone 6, Apple Watch, Android on Chrome OS comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap
        * Instapaper Updated for iOS 8 With Enhanced Saving Features, Now Free to Download

        * How Social Good Summit Is Unfolding on Social Media
        * It’s Okay to Ask An Employer About Their Religious Views
        * Try “Travel Caching” to Avoid Checked Bags While Travelling
        * Re/code on TV: iPhone 6 Reviews and What’s Next for Alibaba
        * Famous Faces Lend Star Power to New York Climate Protest
        * Check Out the Best From This Week's Open Thread
        * Ask a Coworker for a Copy of Your Noncompete If You Lose Yours

        * White Sox 10, Rays 5: Indoor fireworks
        * Danks cruises with abundance of support
        * Rays add run after out at first overturned
        * Sale's final start to come Wednesday in Detroit
        * Danks tries to guide White Sox to series win
        * Franklin's two-run homer stands following review
        * Lack of offense nullifies Noesi's quality start


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois Governor Candidate Wants To Auction Of.....
        * Veterans home set to open on Northwest Side..
        * Veteran home on NW Side to be Chicago's first..
        * Gov Pat Quinn..
        * Ground broken on new Chicago veterans' home..
        * Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor race..


        * Chicago Latinos optimistic about new archbishop
        * Court: Illinois inmate must pay prison costs
        * Ground broken on new Chicago veterans' home
        * CTA: Fewer people trespassing on train tracks
        * Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor race
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Cicero man convicted in girlfriend's death
        * Alton's ConAgra plant gets new name, new sign
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Large freighter runs aground, gets stuck in Duluth

        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs
        * Deadline ahead for Illinois marijuana businesses
        * Gov. Quinn picks up Sierra Club endorsement
        * Statehouse Insider: Rauner hit with double whammy
        * More than $59M collected from state retirees; refunds coming eventually
        * Lawmaker wants pumpkin to be official Illinois pie
        * Quinn: No pension ‘Plan B’ before court ruling
        * Sangamon Co. judge: Libertarian candidate for governor can stay on ballot

        * Scramble is on for tenants to anchor a third office tower
        * A grandmother can be CEO — or president
        * Which Chicago startup will be next with an IPO?
        * When $400 million can't buy love
        * The bleeding has stopped, but Navistar is still struggling


        * Area Catholics optimistic about Cupich
        * Another sexual abuse lawsuit filed against Joliet Diocese
        * Editorial: Bishop a good fit for Chicago
        * Chicago’s next archbishop Blase Cupich calls for immigration reform, shows off his humor
        * Convicted rapist charged in 2004 murder, rape on South Side
        * Reports: Bishop Blase Cupich of Spokane will be Cardinal Francis George successor
        * ‘Hello’ in Riverside ends up getting South Side man a DUI charge
        * 2 dead, 21 wounded in shootings across Chicago since Friday night
        * Apple fans answer the iPhone’s call


        * Cops: Robbery suspect fatally stabbed by alleged victim
        * Veterans home set to open on Northwest Side
        * Appellate court: Inmate must pay $20K toward his incarceration
        * Glen Ellyn police searching for missing autistic woman
        * Inmate charged with 2004 sex assault, murder
        * United Airlines turning a corner with time and improved technology
        * Democrat Giannoulias backs Republican Cross for state treasurer
        * In the pews, Chicago-area Catholics embrace news of next archbishop
        * McDonald's expanding build-your-burger test in search of growth
        * Woman wounded in leg during Cragin shooting


        * Cupich to be next Chicago archbishop
        * Treasurer Candidate Tom Cross Says He Would Sue The Legislature To Force A Balanced Budget
        * Listen to State Week - September 19, 2014
        * Quinn Defends Public Education, Though He's A Product of Private Schools
        * Chris Mooney: More Evidence-Based Policymaking Needed
        * African Drumming At Southwind Park On Saturday
        * Investors gather in Chicago seeking cannabis businesses
        * Climate, Space Create Challenges For Local Food
        * Can A Governor Really Create Jobs?
        * How do you find high school dropouts?


        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs
        * Deadline ahead for Illinois marijuana businesses
        * Gov. Quinn picks up Sierra Club endorsement
        * Our Opinion: Springfield needs Magro project
        * Angie Muhs: Open government is worth fighting for
        * Statehouse Insider: Rauner hit with double whammy
        * Statehouse Insider: Rauner hit with double whammy
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Bull flies in 13th Congressional race


        * UI Women's Soccer vs Purdue
        * Court: Illinois inmate must pay prison costs
        * Chicago Latinos optimistic about new archbishop
        * Mac falls to Westminster
        * PHOTOS: Decatur Train Fair
        * Success: Belleville grills 200-foot bratwurst to commemorate city's 200th birthday
        * Parkland Volleyball vs Johnson County
        * Davenport man charged in fatal crash
        * Janet Rayfield Postgame Purdue 9-21-2014
        * Father McGivney to break ground on new school building Monday


        * Tens of thousands march worldwide on climate change
        * Fest offers glimpse at decades of farm life in Lake County
        * Upper body injury sidelines Hawks' Teravainen
        * Elgin's Sainz Jr. earns PGA Tour card
        * Yemen government signs peace deal with Shiites

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Jesse Jackson Jr. political fund fined nea...
        * Jackson Jr.'s political fund fined nearly ...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Ask Peter: Obamacare's Broken Promises - I...
        * Peter Roskam pushes for Alzheimer's resear...
        * Congressman: 'Some good stuff is going on'...
        * Enterprise Recovery Systems Hosts Congress...
        * Shimkus in Danville office next week - Cha...

        * Horizon Pharma Moves Overseas Defying Lawm......
        * Horizon Pharma Moves Overseas Defying Lawm......
        * Horizon Pharma Moves Overseas Defying Lawm......
        * Horizon Pharma Moves Overseas Defying Lawm......
        * Horizon Pharma Moves Overseas Defying Lawm......

        * Diplomats: Iran receptive to new nuke prop......
        * Diplomats: Iran open to softened US nuke p......

        * Some Concepts About College You Must Know
        * No More Trouble in Completing Difficult Writing Assignments
        * The Highland teachers strike. A great editorial in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
        * Sunday reads.
        * Gov. Mike Huckabee Endorses Mike Bost for U.S. Congress
        * Rauner says he'll make administration picks based on qualifications, not favors
        * 'Suicide fanatics' facing demonstrators in Chicago
        * Eric Metaxas to Christians: As the world darkens, share the Truth
        * Callis releases new negative ad on Davis
        * LAUSD 2014 Professional Development.


        * Quinn still refusing to fire 20 political cronies
        * Illinois Chamber of Commerce Endorses Rauner for Governor
        * Rauner Web Ad: “Cut from the Same Cloth”
        * Illinois Department of Human Rights Commemorates International Day of Peace
        * Quinn Misleads Public on IDOT Again




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller