SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sabato upgrades Bustos race to “Likely Democratic”

Thursday, Jun 19, 2014

* Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has changed some race ratings, including one Illinois congressional campaign

Rep. Cheri Bustos (D, IL-17) — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic:

Bustos won a tough race against former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) in 2012, and Schilling is running again. However, conversations with partisans on both sides of the race suggest that other contests in Illinois are looking more competitive, such as Democratic-held IL-10 and IL-12 and Republican-held IL-13.

Bustos has more than triple the cash on hand of Schilling and, in recently announced multi-district ad buys, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee — the parties’ House campaign arms — ignored this district (although House Majority PAC, a kind of unaffiliated shadow DCCC, did make some future ad buys in markets here).

It’s worth noting that the only district Republicans hold that matches President Obama’s 57% performance here is the open CA-31, where we favor a Democratic takeover. Obama did worse in every other Republican-held district.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Well, money is probably a big factor, as discussed these past days, it is becoming more clear that Enyart, today, seems to be the battle both sides want to engage.


  2. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    This district was designed by Madigan to be a Democratic district.

    She can only lose it and that probably won’t happen.


  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    ===district was designed by Madigan===

    The congressional districts were all drawn by Cullerton.


  4. - Hey There - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Campers, the 12th CD is a much more competitive district than many people believe especially in a non-presidential. I was surprised that the 12th CD was not drawn more Democratic in the last remap. Costello had it then and I’m sure, as a senior incumbent with close ties to the Speaker, he could have gotten a more Democratic district if he had wanted one. Costello was going to be safe regardless, though, and he probably knew then that he’d be retiring soon so who cares.


  5. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:39 pm:

    People are forgetting this district was not drawn for Enyart. He joined the race in June of 2012


  6. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:40 pm:

    Schilling raised a little more than Bustos last time out and got beat by six points.

    The money’s not there this time and it’s getting late.


  7. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    Bustos hasn’t a ground game, unlike Evans built up during his 24 years of service, and her message is less than appealing to Evans’ progressive base. There aren’t any legislative races in Peoria to get out minority voting and I doubt there are any in the rest of the 17th District. Bustos underperformed the Democratic performance in 2012 by 4 points. If she does that in 2014 she will move on to her 7 figure health care lobbyist job a little earlier than she expected.


  8. - Southwest Cook - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    “Upgrades”? Depends on your point of view, I guess. I would say “Downgrades” since the race is seen as less competitive than before.


  9. - lil enchilada - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    Schilling had some kind of nerdy, regular guy appeal when he ran the first time. Somehow he’s lost that. Bobby’s mojo is gone and he is not generating any interest or support from people who are not GOP insiders. Plus Bustos ain’t no Phil Hare


  10. - Norseman - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    Domo arigato Mr. Sabato.

    Sorry, it’s hot and my self-control button has been fried.


  11. - A guy... - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    I see this one bouncing around til close to November. This is a place where the National trends might have a greater impact. Schilling over Hare was one of the more surprising surprises that election night. This one could go back and forth for a while.


  12. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:02 pm:

    So Cullerton really drew the maps and Madigan played no or an insignificant role in this process??? Discounting the fact that both submitted names for the respective Senate and House committees for this redistricting.

    Yep, Cullerton has always been the real force and brains in the Illinois Democratic Party.


  13. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Cullerton insists that he drew the maps, not MJM. He actually gets peevish about the media giving MJM the “credit.” LOL


  14. - Federalist - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 6:16 pm:

    Mr. Miller,

    I bet he does! Me thinks he does protest too much!
    Will never be proven one way or another. But all of us political junkies can observe from many past experiences and make up their own minds.


  15. - Turtle - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 9:53 pm:

    Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.


  16. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jun 19, 14 @ 11:25 pm:

    –Schilling’s biggest problem is all the manufacturing jobs that have left this district while he continues to oppose legislation to make offshoring less attractive.–

    I don’t know about that. I was a reporter out in the Quads in the 80s and practically made a living covering layoffs at CAT, Deere, IH, Case, etc.

    They know the score out there. They’re not going to hang that on Schilling, Quinn or Obama.

    They’d had a recession-proof economy since WWII up til the 80s. Things changed.

    Komatsu came into the U.S. market. And the U.S.-based companies started setting up in Asian markets that were hot.

    Schilling can’t raise money. His old friends aren’t returning calls.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Maybe not
* Question of the day
* Stating the obvious
* Oy
* US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD intervention
* Today's quotable
* A $650 Million Day for Exelon
* Potential candidate: Unions "spreading propaganda" about Rauner
* Illinois Mayors Know What's Best For Their Communities
* First Lady's group blasts Gov. Rauner for "devastating policies"
* McCann: I was elected to serve my constituents, not Madigan, Cullerton or Rauner
* Arduin heads for the exit door
* Today's number: 1.1 percent
* Dealing with Pat Quinn's mess
* Today's must-read
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Honor 7 and Cheetah Mobile announce a partnership to enhance the user experience
        * iPhone 6s event confirmed, new Moto 360 leaks & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Huawei’s Honor 7 will sell direct to consumers in Europe
        * Apple patents wireless earphones with a different type of noise cancelation
        * Leaks bring new twist to rose gold iPhone 6s, Force Touch, and sapphire options
        * GigSky shows off their new travel SIM card with the Obi Worldphone
        * Joseph Gordon-Levitt, HitRECord and LG will work together on future projects

        * Rodon keeps rolling as Sox top Mariners
        * Eaton spark plug for Sox with key hits, hustle
        * Walker, Danks to duel for 2nd time this week
        * Rodon keeps rolling as Sox top Mariners
        * Sox don 'interesting' 1970s throwback uniforms
        * Sox don 'interesting' 1970s throwback uniforms
        * The ugly truth: Tonight's White Sox throwback uniforms are the best

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Doctor fights charges he misled patients about marijuana
        * Candidates looking to replace Schock meet for another debate
        * 2 dead in hazardous material incident outside Chicago
        * Fed judge: Verdict in Chicago lawyer's case Monday
        * Fed: Lies Chicago lawyer coached an 'assault' on justice
        * 8 treated for Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans home
        * US judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Jobless rates fall in all Illinois metro areas in July
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past attendance data inflated

        * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
        * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Gov. Rauner approves Springfield railroad oversight commission bill
        * Federal judge blasts Illinois for not making all ordered payments
        * Rauner approves rail commission bill
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Buchen: Past state fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Health Central makes preparations to open Springfield's first medical marijuana dispensary
        * State layoffs could shut down community garden at Illinois State Fairgrounds

        * United to replace Hospira in S&P 500 next week
        * Do patients held for observation skew performance on quality measures?
        * Union wins closely watched labor case over who's the boss
        * Deal to develop parkland near Indiana Dunes riles conservationists
        * CSO veteran will head Merit School of Music


          * 7 wounded in South, West side shootings
          * 8 treated for Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans home
          * Salvation Army opening big new campus in Humboldt Park
          * Loop fire causes Hazmat response
          * 2 Ingleside crash victims named, identification of 3rd pending DNA results
          * Off-duty officer dies following motorcycle crash
          * 2 dead, 1 hurt, 4 officers injured in suburban hazardous materials incident
          * Principal known as Emanuel critic reprimanded by mayor's school board
          * CPS exec says can't offer hunger strikers a Dyett decision yet
          * Gang leader indicted on gun charge a week after arrest in shooting


          * Our Opinion: Ducking sunshine in the digital age
          * E.J. Dionne: Trump's video game mastery
          * Esther Cepeda: Don't bake your DNA
          * Junaid Afeef: American Muslims can't tackle ISIS recruitment alone
          * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
          * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
          * J. Fred Giertz: Illinois government: dysfunction by incompetence or by design?
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Tom Madonia Jr. may run against Rep. Sue Scherer
          * Write to us: Tell us your volunteer story
          * Eugene Robinson: How would market chaos affect the 2016 race?


          * Forty Under 40: Matt Difanis
          * Thursday's prep highlights: Cissna Park stays perfect
          * STM volleyball gives new coach first victory
          * N-G Football Top 10: No. 1 Tuscola
          * Illini women's tennis schedule released
          * Anderson advances to Winston-Salem semifinals
          * Survey says ... from Taylor Barton
          * Powell decides on surgery, done for season
          * Stuff Huff an extra-special occasion this year
          * Shackelford out, former Viking Davis in for UI


          * Glen Ellyn mulls how to handle downtown construction zones
          * Santa's Village halts tortoise shell decorating activity
          * Investigators comb scene for clues in deaths at Des Plaines-area home
          * Rodon, Eaton lead White Sox past Mariners, 4-2
          * Arbitrator rules against Bonds in collusion case

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Protest over GMOs - RiverBender.com...
          * Protest over GMOs - Alton Daily News...
          * Bustos to back Iranian pact: 'best path fo......

          * US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD int......

          * Personal tech purcahases
          * EXTRA: The Top Ten
          * Legally Employed
          * Ex-Redflex CEO Pleads Guilty In Red Light Camera Bribery
          * “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
          * Lake Street Bridge Closed For Maintenance Saturday Morning
          * Alice Walker: Julian
          * edTPA and TFA are two sides of the same coin.
          * Di Leo: Government's Wasteful Spending, from the Forest to the Trees
          * Senator Duffy endorses McConchie over Sauer to succeed Rep. Ed Sullivan


          * Governor Rauner Requests SBA Assistance for Grundy, Iroquois Counties - Declaration would help people and businesses affected by summer storms with low-interest, long-term loans to help with recovery
          * Respiratory Illness at Illinois Veterans’ Home-Quincy
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Thursday, August 27, 2015 until Sunset, Saturday, August 29, 2015.
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Friday, August 28, 2015 until Sunset, Sunday, August 30, 2015.




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller