SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Not a surprise at all

Monday, Jun 23, 2014

* Governing Magazine took a look at state legislative contests throughout the country and then rated each state chamber’s likelihood of parties holding onto control

ILLINOIS

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 40-19 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 71-47 D

    The gubernatorial race — a slugfest between unpopular Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and deep-pocketed GOP businessman Bruce Rauner — could have a trickle-down effect on state legislative contests if one of the candidates gets a strong upper hand. But the Democrats have big leads in both chambers, so the party would have to experience a major wipeout to lose its majorities. A likelier outcome is for the House Democratic supermajority to fall

.

Hard to disagree there.

The Senate has just two contested races and the Republicans need to pick up five seats to escape from their super-minority status. Not gonna happen. The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    If Durkin’s Crew can somehow get to 50, that would be huge for the morale, and would allow that Crew to look as though progress is being made in the HGOP.

    Rauner is about the RaunerPAC that threatens to support GOP …or… Dem candidates who support Bruce Rauner, or the monies Rauner has promised as a GOTV in GOP races with little or no chance of a Caucus victory, but, “surprise, surprise” a victory for Rauner and Raunerites at the expense of fooling good hearted Republicans.

    I really like how Durkin is going about changing the HGOP culture, and getting to 50 will lead to some credibility too.


  2. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Willie, since you keep calling the GOP “your party”. I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.


  3. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Good bye Sue Scherer, you better hold on tight to Manar’s coat tails to drag you across the finish because that is your best bet.

    I think Cloonen will also have a very tough race, I can see Glenn Nixon picking this seat back up. And I don’t see Durkin being as lackadaisical as Cross’s campaign team was with this race.


  4. - CirularFiringSquad - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    So Durkie’s goal is to emerge from SuperMinority status? Wow talk about big dreams. Mitt will need to spend tons through the back door and GOPies will need to reprogram candidates like Proft’s PeteyBreen to avoid some of those unpleasant moments that infect whole slate.
    Fire, Aim, Ready!


  5. - the Patriot - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    The most under written political story in IL, is the incompetence of the republican party. But for one billionaire mixing it up, we are going to toss another election cycle in the trash.

    I have thought for a while if Rauner really wanted to mix things up, he should have found some candidates to run against vulnerable dems. I know it ends up pushing people to the polls, but getting elected and fighting a super majority in the legislature does not accomplish anything.

    200k in 10 legislative districts is only 2 million which is a drop in the bucket for what he will spend in his race, but could end up picking off 3-4 of the right legislators.


  6. - Been There - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    ===The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.===
    With Jack Franks the House GOP are usually not in the super minority dungeon anyway. But as OW states getting to 50 for Durkin could be a morale changer for that side of the aisle. And as Rich has pointed out in the past, Madigan might prefer not to have a super majority. At least some in the media would lose their sound bite about Madigan can pass whatever he wants whenever he wants.


  7. - walker - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Also have high hopes for Durkin at the GOP state level; he’s not the kind of guy who gets pushed around.

    Dorgan’s leaving was a loss, though maybe temporary.

    A Guy: Yes, we can tell you’re involved. :)

    With respect.


  8. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    ===I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.===

    Supporting the Blago of the GOP is not helping “My Party”. Supporting a candidate who touts a PAC for both Dems and the GOP is not supporting “My Party”. You are not helping anyone but Raunerites, and you don’t even see it.

    Doing my part? I feel pretty comfortable giving my support, and showing it as I see fit. Plus, I am more helpful not being a “yes man” in a chorus of “yes men”.


  10. - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    “Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.”

    In my recent memory, the HDem caucus has not ever been a caucus that consisted entirely of “hard blues”. Part of the success that MJM has had is the result of pulling the more moderate Democrats into his corner.


  11. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    Walk, thanks.
    Working for 5 legislative candidates. Contrary to what might be assumed, the legislature is much closer to the people than the Governor is. Local races always dominate my efforts. I will say that I’m running into plenty of Rauner folks in the field who are also carrying for the local candidates in South DuPage County. I would guess they have folks elsewhere too.


  12. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    === I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. ===

    I agree. Its too easy for the IL GOP to do nothing except complain and blame the super-majority.

    And yet, on the key issue facing Illinois, reality is not going to go away. We need:

    A. More revenue; or

    B. Significant cuts beyond the mythical “waste fraud and abuse”

    Neither option will be popular with voters.


  13. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    Don’t forget that Rauner’s term limit amendment would re-define “super majority”


  14. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Well said Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I am not at all against our side (GOP) having to stand up and be a part of a real negotiation. A few more votes on our side would cause that. They don’t deserve a pass, but they need to know making the case has a potential for impact. 50-51 members in your caucus is enough to do so.


  16. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    Has anyone identified the 5 seats most likely to flip to the GOP?


  17. - Anon - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:38 am:

    If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. A lot would depend upon how the new districts are drawn.


  18. - Federalist - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    Illinois is a Blue state becoming ‘bluer’ as time progresses. Republicans may have occasional victories but not longstanding.

    No matter how poorly the state is run I do not see this trend changing.

    Many factors but main reason is demographics.


  19. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    === If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. ===

    My understanding is that won’t happen until redistricting after the 2020 Census.

    On the other hand, the increased number of votes to over ride a veto would be effective immediately, which changes the definition of super-majority.


  20. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    I wonder if a chosen few state senate and house candidates are going to get the lion’s share of the HGOP and SGOP resources as in the past. I understand that Cross was spending over six figures on “Friends of Tom” in legisalative races last time around, while starving the grass roots candidates and refusing to put resources to attract better candidates to take on Dems.

    One of the problems I’ve noticed is that there’s practically NO money in state GOP coffers out there with which to entice competitive GOP candidates into races.

    Virtually every district with a 45% GOP base and less than 25% mionrity voters has at least one person in the district who could make the race competitive and possibly win in the general.

    I’m talking about people who have been elected to local municipal or school office who have some political organization, a base of support, the “right” ethnicity for the district and political skills.

    These folks won’t run unless they have some bucks committed by House or Senate committees before they start. Most are politically ambitious for personal gain (just about the main commonality amongst Illinois candidates of both parties), and it will take a state party funding committment of $30K to $40K for them to step into the ring.

    In the past, Cross and Radogno had no interest in that sort of thing. They just poured obscene amounts of cash into a few friends campaign funds.

    I suspect that little has changed from the Cross HGOP days to build the party. Anyone out there have examples that prove me wrong?


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 8:39 pm:

    My take:

    Hard to see a scenario where Democrats lose seats in the General Assembly while Quinn wins.

    So: Madigan most definitely wants to hold onto a super-majority, unless you buy into the conspiracy that MJM wants Rauner.

    If Rauner is governor, it does not matter if Durkin has 47 or 50 or 55. He will have a seat at the table AND House Republicans will have to do some lifting.

    Do not expect Republicans to stop sitting on their hands just because they pick up seats. They sat on their hands when they were in the minority before, which is how they became super-minorities.


  22. - steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:46 pm:

    I re-read this thing: Governing really goes out on a limb here: the Ds will probably keep their majority status. Wow!


  23. - Stand - Tuesday, Jun 24, 14 @ 9:09 am:

    I believe the term limit amendment calls for immediate re districting to account for the changes in the number of legislators.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Adventures in governing
* Rauner on Obama: "One of the most anti-business presidents we've had in the last 70 years"
* Callis recycles ad, reportedly lowers buys
* *** UPDATED x2 - Frerichs responds - Cross responds *** Frerichs says Cross is Rauner's "lapdog"
* Poll: Rauner leading by 6, Topinka up by 22, Cross up by 10
* Pumping up the base
* NRI head will testify next week
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Another day, another GTCR revelation
* Rate Rauner's three new TV ads
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Congressional crosstabs
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning, everybody!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * A New App Called Offtime Helps You Unplug Without Missing Out
        * iPhone 6 Plus review – Apple’s outstanding entry to the “phablet” market
        * LEGO Creator Islands lets you build all things awesome
        * Chargerito smartphone charger is incredibly small
        * Skylanders Trap Team Review: Good Storytelling And Simple RPG Mechanics Succeed
        * Parrot Zik 2.0: lighter, better battery controls
        * Samsung shares Galaxy Note 4 release dates for nations around the globe

        * ARM Introduces New Platform for The Internet of Things
        * Why Windows 10 is an Ambitious Step Forward, Not a Retreat
        * Netflix Will Pay You to Instagram Famous Movie Locations
        * New Swarming Drones Appear Just in Time for Looser Rules on Eyes in the Skies
        * LGBT Real-Name Controversy: Facebook Apologies, Promises Changes
        * Facebook Apologizes to Drag Queens Over “Real Name” Policy
        * Wealthfront Hires MessageMe COO Ali Rosenthal to Run Partnerships

        * Guide to American League rooting interests for White Sox fans
        * Anderson, Edwards prospects to watch in AFL
        * Manager notes: How Robin Ventura and Chris Sale get along
        * Voting underway to decide Hank Aaron Awards
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future
        * Improved White Sox take important step in 2014
        * September call-ups report card: position players


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn Proclaims “First Ladies Health Day” .....
        * McAuliffe to campaign for Gov. Pat Quinn in Chi.....
        * Sitting Governors Fight to Keep Their Jobs..
        * Rauner, Quinn clash on Obamacare expansion ahea.....
        * Panel Investigating NRI To Hold Hearings Next Week..
        * Skokie man takes charge of Chicago’s first Oliv.....
        * Reeder: State government unaware of education s.....
        * Rauner calls for restructuring of the tax code..


        * Donations drying up for Lincoln library foundation
        * Ex-Chicago police commander getting out of prison
        * Governor candidates' views on Obama library evolve
        * Community prosecutor to serve East St. Louis area
        * U of Chicago increases aid to needy students
        * Officer accused of taking drug from evidence room
        * Federal agents charge 22 in alleged drug ring
        * Md. bankruptcy halts suit in deadly Illinois crash
        * Illinois universities competing for students
        * Ex-Texas deputy gets 12 years in drug cash case

        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * ALPLM at center of legislative hearing in Chicago
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify
        * Appellate court: State workers owed back wages
        * Quinn leans on top Democratic support — Obamas, Clinton
        * IDOC investigation prompts state prison warden to retire
        * Lawmaker panel plans to resume anti-violence program investigation
        * Quinn touts first year of Affordable Care Act
        * State-owned airplanes to be sold in online auction
        * GOP opposition to school funding bill irks Manar

        * Secret Service Director Julia Pierson resigns
        * United stock dips on news of first U.S. Ebola case
        * Chicago-Indianapolis train getting snacks, surfing and biz class
        * Young drinkers have abandoned big beer. Can it be saved?
        * New networking group launches


        * Video shows Rauner opposing Medicaid expansion last year
        * Rauner’s biggest strength proving to be greatest weakness: Mihalopoulos
        * CPS students with good GPA could get free ride to City Colleges
        * Union: CPS was warned that janitor job cuts could cause problems
        * Lawyer: Key witness to answer questions from panel probing NRI
        * Emanuel super PAC rakes in $2.4 million since late June
        * Pedicab operators say city rules putting brakes on their business
        * IHSA to boycott legislative hearing set for Friday in Chicago
        * Quinn urges City Council to tighten reins on small digital signs
        * Man charged with killing girlfriend, 7-year-old daughter


        * Worker with gun arrested at Elgin water treatment plant: 'He had a bad day'
        * Minor injuries in pepper spray incident at West Side school
        * Emanuel won't rule out fee hikes in 2015 budget
        * Registered sex offender charged with attacking woman at Brown Line stop
        * CPS grads can qualify for new city college scholarships
        * Rauner, Quinn clash on Obamacare expansion ahead of president's Chicago visit
        * Cops: Man with symptoms of dementia missing from Humboldt Park
        * Jury begins deliberating in Naperville 'smart meter' case
        * Former cop convicted of perjury gets 4-1/2 months in jail
        * Nearly two dozen charged in multimillion-dollar drug operations in Chicago area


        * Tim Landis: Bike Lanes, Medical Marijuana And Meat
        * Clock Ticking On Illinois Prison Crowding
        * Decatur Unemployment Shows Biggest Drop In Nation
        * Quinn Lauds Affordable Care Act, Backs Down From State Marketplace
        * A Redo On Redistricting
        * Polls Showing Illinois Governor's Race A Draw
        * Bruce Rauner, Before He Was A Candidate (Author Interview)
        * Listen to State Week - September 19, 2014
        * Clearing The Air On Clean Air Plan
        * Meet Bishop Blase Cupich, Chicago's incoming archbishop


        * Donations drying up for Lincoln Presidential Library foundation, chairman tells lawmakers
        * Former head of anti-violence program to testify
        * Michael Gerson: Two cheers for Obama, not three
        * Appellate court: State workers owed back wages
        * Quinn leans on top Democratic support — Obamas, Clinton
        * IDOC investigation prompts state prison warden to retire
        * Panel plans to resume anti-violence program probe
        * Lawmaker panel plans to resume anti-violence program investigation
        * Quinn touts first year of Affordable Care Act
        * State-owned airplanes to be sold in online auction


        * Boil order lifted for part of Murphysboro
        * Madison County man, suspect lucky to be alive after wild battle over guns
        * Street closures listing
        * Madison County resident, suspect lucky to be alive after wild battle over two guns
        * Missouri police officer from Belleville charged with drug possession, stealing
        * Columbia American Legion receives missing money
        * Today's chat recap: R-E-L-A-X
        * Fort de Chartres offers look at World War II with ‘Salute to Our Heroes’
        * Launa McClaine
        * RI police called to Thurgood Marshall Learning Center


        * Crisis backpack taken from Hoffman Estates elementary school
        * Golf Road lanes reopened in Hoffman Estates
        * Man in custody after gun reported at water district building in Elgin
        * Prison set for Highland Park woman in 'huffing' death
        * WINGS, YWCA neck and neck in Purple Purse Challenge

        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement in...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...

        * Northeastern Illinois University celebrate......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......
        * Illinois gets $19 million for justice prog......

        * On The Campaign Trail, GOP Gov. Snyder Hig......

        * Obama Headed To Chicago To Fundraise For Quinn
        * Emanuel To City Sister Agencies: Require A $13 Minimum Wage
        * Public Interest Group Urges Against 'Wasteful Spending' On Illiana Expressway
        * Emanuel Considering Free City Colleges Tuition For CPS Grads With High GPA
        * Chicago Police: 2014 Murders Hit Lowest Level Since 1965
        * Panel Investigating NRI To Hold Hearings Next Week
        * Get Ready! Wilson L Renovations Start This Month
        * Effective Property Tax Rates in the Collar Counties
        * Conservative orgs say "no" to candidates who say "no" to Republican principles
        * New Poll: Rauner leads by 6, Cross by 10, Topinka by 22


        * Screwed Up
        * Jobs Governor
        * Wake Up
        * Rauner Launches Three New TV Ads
        * Quinn must take lame duck tax vote off the table




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller