SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Not a surprise at all

Monday, Jun 23, 2014

* Governing Magazine took a look at state legislative contests throughout the country and then rated each state chamber’s likelihood of parties holding onto control

ILLINOIS

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 40-19 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 71-47 D

    The gubernatorial race — a slugfest between unpopular Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and deep-pocketed GOP businessman Bruce Rauner — could have a trickle-down effect on state legislative contests if one of the candidates gets a strong upper hand. But the Democrats have big leads in both chambers, so the party would have to experience a major wipeout to lose its majorities. A likelier outcome is for the House Democratic supermajority to fall

.

Hard to disagree there.

The Senate has just two contested races and the Republicans need to pick up five seats to escape from their super-minority status. Not gonna happen. The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    If Durkin’s Crew can somehow get to 50, that would be huge for the morale, and would allow that Crew to look as though progress is being made in the HGOP.

    Rauner is about the RaunerPAC that threatens to support GOP …or… Dem candidates who support Bruce Rauner, or the monies Rauner has promised as a GOTV in GOP races with little or no chance of a Caucus victory, but, “surprise, surprise” a victory for Rauner and Raunerites at the expense of fooling good hearted Republicans.

    I really like how Durkin is going about changing the HGOP culture, and getting to 50 will lead to some credibility too.


  2. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Willie, since you keep calling the GOP “your party”. I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.


  3. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Good bye Sue Scherer, you better hold on tight to Manar’s coat tails to drag you across the finish because that is your best bet.

    I think Cloonen will also have a very tough race, I can see Glenn Nixon picking this seat back up. And I don’t see Durkin being as lackadaisical as Cross’s campaign team was with this race.


  4. - CirularFiringSquad - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    So Durkie’s goal is to emerge from SuperMinority status? Wow talk about big dreams. Mitt will need to spend tons through the back door and GOPies will need to reprogram candidates like Proft’s PeteyBreen to avoid some of those unpleasant moments that infect whole slate.
    Fire, Aim, Ready!


  5. - the Patriot - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    The most under written political story in IL, is the incompetence of the republican party. But for one billionaire mixing it up, we are going to toss another election cycle in the trash.

    I have thought for a while if Rauner really wanted to mix things up, he should have found some candidates to run against vulnerable dems. I know it ends up pushing people to the polls, but getting elected and fighting a super majority in the legislature does not accomplish anything.

    200k in 10 legislative districts is only 2 million which is a drop in the bucket for what he will spend in his race, but could end up picking off 3-4 of the right legislators.


  6. - Been There - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    ===The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.===
    With Jack Franks the House GOP are usually not in the super minority dungeon anyway. But as OW states getting to 50 for Durkin could be a morale changer for that side of the aisle. And as Rich has pointed out in the past, Madigan might prefer not to have a super majority. At least some in the media would lose their sound bite about Madigan can pass whatever he wants whenever he wants.


  7. - walker - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Also have high hopes for Durkin at the GOP state level; he’s not the kind of guy who gets pushed around.

    Dorgan’s leaving was a loss, though maybe temporary.

    A Guy: Yes, we can tell you’re involved. :)

    With respect.


  8. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    ===I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.===

    Supporting the Blago of the GOP is not helping “My Party”. Supporting a candidate who touts a PAC for both Dems and the GOP is not supporting “My Party”. You are not helping anyone but Raunerites, and you don’t even see it.

    Doing my part? I feel pretty comfortable giving my support, and showing it as I see fit. Plus, I am more helpful not being a “yes man” in a chorus of “yes men”.


  10. - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    “Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.”

    In my recent memory, the HDem caucus has not ever been a caucus that consisted entirely of “hard blues”. Part of the success that MJM has had is the result of pulling the more moderate Democrats into his corner.


  11. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    Walk, thanks.
    Working for 5 legislative candidates. Contrary to what might be assumed, the legislature is much closer to the people than the Governor is. Local races always dominate my efforts. I will say that I’m running into plenty of Rauner folks in the field who are also carrying for the local candidates in South DuPage County. I would guess they have folks elsewhere too.


  12. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    === I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. ===

    I agree. Its too easy for the IL GOP to do nothing except complain and blame the super-majority.

    And yet, on the key issue facing Illinois, reality is not going to go away. We need:

    A. More revenue; or

    B. Significant cuts beyond the mythical “waste fraud and abuse”

    Neither option will be popular with voters.


  13. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    Don’t forget that Rauner’s term limit amendment would re-define “super majority”


  14. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Well said Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I am not at all against our side (GOP) having to stand up and be a part of a real negotiation. A few more votes on our side would cause that. They don’t deserve a pass, but they need to know making the case has a potential for impact. 50-51 members in your caucus is enough to do so.


  16. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    Has anyone identified the 5 seats most likely to flip to the GOP?


  17. - Anon - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:38 am:

    If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. A lot would depend upon how the new districts are drawn.


  18. - Federalist - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    Illinois is a Blue state becoming ‘bluer’ as time progresses. Republicans may have occasional victories but not longstanding.

    No matter how poorly the state is run I do not see this trend changing.

    Many factors but main reason is demographics.


  19. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    === If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. ===

    My understanding is that won’t happen until redistricting after the 2020 Census.

    On the other hand, the increased number of votes to over ride a veto would be effective immediately, which changes the definition of super-majority.


  20. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    I wonder if a chosen few state senate and house candidates are going to get the lion’s share of the HGOP and SGOP resources as in the past. I understand that Cross was spending over six figures on “Friends of Tom” in legisalative races last time around, while starving the grass roots candidates and refusing to put resources to attract better candidates to take on Dems.

    One of the problems I’ve noticed is that there’s practically NO money in state GOP coffers out there with which to entice competitive GOP candidates into races.

    Virtually every district with a 45% GOP base and less than 25% mionrity voters has at least one person in the district who could make the race competitive and possibly win in the general.

    I’m talking about people who have been elected to local municipal or school office who have some political organization, a base of support, the “right” ethnicity for the district and political skills.

    These folks won’t run unless they have some bucks committed by House or Senate committees before they start. Most are politically ambitious for personal gain (just about the main commonality amongst Illinois candidates of both parties), and it will take a state party funding committment of $30K to $40K for them to step into the ring.

    In the past, Cross and Radogno had no interest in that sort of thing. They just poured obscene amounts of cash into a few friends campaign funds.

    I suspect that little has changed from the Cross HGOP days to build the party. Anyone out there have examples that prove me wrong?


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 8:39 pm:

    My take:

    Hard to see a scenario where Democrats lose seats in the General Assembly while Quinn wins.

    So: Madigan most definitely wants to hold onto a super-majority, unless you buy into the conspiracy that MJM wants Rauner.

    If Rauner is governor, it does not matter if Durkin has 47 or 50 or 55. He will have a seat at the table AND House Republicans will have to do some lifting.

    Do not expect Republicans to stop sitting on their hands just because they pick up seats. They sat on their hands when they were in the minority before, which is how they became super-minorities.


  22. - steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:46 pm:

    I re-read this thing: Governing really goes out on a limb here: the Ds will probably keep their majority status. Wow!


  23. - Stand - Tuesday, Jun 24, 14 @ 9:09 am:

    I believe the term limit amendment calls for immediate re districting to account for the changes in the number of legislators.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Tomorrow's news today
* Oddities and ends
* Durbin launches second positive ad
* *** UPDATED x3 - Full Rauner response - Rauner issues statement - Quinn responds *** Question of the day
* Black radio ad slams Rauner for failure to hire a single African-American at company
* Today's chart
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn responds *** Rauner unveils ethics reform plan
* Today's number: 30 percent less likely
* Bigfooted by the Trib
* *** UPDATED x1 - Bustos responds *** Schilling ad attacks Bustos over budget cuts
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads, cable TV buys and an events list
* Quinn moves to second negative track
* Rate Bruce Rauner's new TV ad: "100 years of failure"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple Updates iMovie and Numbers for iOS 8
        * Moto Maker now available in France, Germany, UK
        * T-Mobile’s new 4G LTE Signal Booster revealed [unboxing video]
        * More Moto X (2014) apps branch out to Google Play for updates
        * The kill switch is here: iOS 8 enables it by default
        * Microsoft removes yearly Windows Phone developer fee
        * Sony forecasts quadruple losses due to smartphone business

        * Sapphire Was Apparently Never In The Cards For The iPhone 6
        * Activation Lock Enabled On iOS 8 By Default
        * The Spotless White Workspace
        * Apple Confirms Bug That Delayed HealthKit Compatible Apps
        * Assassin’s Creed Pirates Returns To Windows Phone
        * Candy Crush Developer Puts Its Windows Phone Developments On Hold
        * It Pays to Globalize: Why Marketers Must Embrace Localization

        * Following up: Adam Eaton's second half, Chris Sale's schedule
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * White Sox 7, Royals 5: Kansas City bullpen titans falter
        * Sale seeks another stellar start in KC, series win
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * Out call on Viciedo confirmed on replay
        * High hopes, no set plan for Konerko's remaining ABs


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn announces aluminum company locating .....
        * Rauner: Stop the revolving door..
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at GOP opponent..
        * Quinn, Rauner ads focus on corruption..


        * Journalists criticize White House for 'secrecy'
        * Emanuel wants no more signs as large as Trump's
        * Warrant: SC dad feared 5 slain kids would kill him
        * Peoria forgoes search, promotes interim cop chief
        * Woman gets prison sentence in 5-year-old's death
        * Emanuel wants no more signs as large as Trump's
        * Herbicides indirectly kill fish in Manteno lake
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian off ballot
        * Rauner ethics plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Ex-deputy gets 50 years prison in child sex case

        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * State legislative panel delays decision on fracking rules
        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring

        * Emanuel wants no more signs as large as Trump's
        * Old Second CEO retires after 42-year bank career
        * Leo Burnett, WPP lose Miller Lite ad account to TBWA
        * Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'
        * Photos: Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'


        * Trump happy over Emanuel crackdown on signs
        * Lawyers allege state Sen. Donne Trotter took $2,000 in FBI sting
        * Highland Park woman sentenced to five years for running over, killing 5-year-old girl
        * Appeals court to decide if Beanie Baby billionaire got off easy
        * Hitting a child is always wrong
        * Tightwalk across the Chicago River is ‘real deal’
        * Pro-Rahm group tells Karen Lewis to choose: Mayor’s race or CTU?


        * Wallenda walks on wire, prayer and $20M insurance
        * 1 dead, 2 wounded in city shootings
        * Outfit enforcer gets 15 years in prison for gun conviction
        * Four charged in fatal shooting at River Oaks Mall
        * TSA boss: Passenger pre-screening to be new standard
        * Ex-sheriff's deputy gets 50 years in child sex abuse case
        * Cops: Man tried to assault girl walking to school on South Side
        * Third person arrested in fatal shooting of retired police sergeant
        * Chicago Public Schools' personnel chief steps down
        * 5 years in 'huffing' crash that killed girl, 5


        * Teen Arrested For Threat Against Glenwood High School
        * I Like Illinois Website Debuts, In Time For The Election
        * Cullerton: I LIKE Illinois!
        * Trauma Care Decision Highlights Competition Between Springfield Hospitals
        * Springfield Art Co-Op Founder "Blossoms" On East Coast
        * Springfield Mayor Houston Points Out Sewer Improvements
        * Mayor: We Are Doing Sewer Work
        * N.J. Gov. Christie Stumps For Rauner In Springfield
        * Fracking Rules Action Delayed; Could Be A Sign Of Revision
        * Who Owns The Rights To Vivian Maier's Photos?


        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Our Opinion: Carbon monoxide alarms belong in schools
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * Michael Gerson: Leading from behind the curve


        * Recovering from Phases
        * Fly-in to benefit food pantry
        * Downtown Morrison on register of historic places
        * UI professor: MacArthur award 'completely blindsided me'
        * Boil order cancelled in Johnston City
        * Sports Talk 9-17-14
        * Carbondale Police investigating late night shooting
        * I-80 bridge at LeClaire closed in both directions
        * Salukis and fans gearing up for SIU Homecoming 2014
        * Museum facing eviction; would close


        * Cardinals RB deactivated after arrest on domestic assault charges
        * Moeller, Meyer in race for 43rd House
        * Trial begins for accused mastermind of Villa Park home invasion
        * Toll takers to get raises, but toll-free perk uncertain
        * Tollway's video swan song for Des Plaines Oasis

        * Former "youngest member of Congress" to vi...
        * Congressman Aaron Schock Reacts To Preside...
        * Congressman Schock Congratulates Local Her...
        * Local Letter Carrier Honored as a Hero - C...
        * House Votes to Condemn GITMO Detainee Rele...
        * Issa, Capito, Chabot, Meeks, and Schock jo...
        * Letter: Some questions for Schock about In...
        * Schock travels to India to promote humanit...
        * Congressman leads humanitarian trip to Ind...
        * Ill. congressman Schock spreads anti-pover...

        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......

        * Shangri La's Barr al Jissah ResortSpa to o......
        * ISIS fight: Congress to vote on arming Syr......

        * Neil Steinberg compares opposition to Israeli policies and campus rape.
        * Richard Skoda’s dreams.
        * S.O.R.E. field trip. Town Hall with Senators Biss and Manar on school funding, Special Needs.
        * Learning Disabilities Association (LDA) of Illinois opposes SB16.
        * Chicago’s Marshall High School and Zombie education reform.
        * California public pension funds to hedge fund managers: “Drop dead.”
        * Leadership.
        * Hooray for cartoonists.
        * Biss and Manar want schools to make do with less. SB16.
        * Susan Sadlowski-Garza.


        * Rauner Launches New TV Ad: 100 Years
        * 100 Years
        * Bruce Rauner Announces Ethics Blueprint
        * Across Illinois, They’re Talking About Pat Quinn’s Corruption
        * New subpoena in federal probe of Quinn anti-violence grant program




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller