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Not a surprise at all

Monday, Jun 23, 2014

* Governing Magazine took a look at state legislative contests throughout the country and then rated each state chamber’s likelihood of parties holding onto control

ILLINOIS

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 40-19 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 71-47 D

    The gubernatorial race — a slugfest between unpopular Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn and deep-pocketed GOP businessman Bruce Rauner — could have a trickle-down effect on state legislative contests if one of the candidates gets a strong upper hand. But the Democrats have big leads in both chambers, so the party would have to experience a major wipeout to lose its majorities. A likelier outcome is for the House Democratic supermajority to fall

.

Hard to disagree there.

The Senate has just two contested races and the Republicans need to pick up five seats to escape from their super-minority status. Not gonna happen. The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    If Durkin’s Crew can somehow get to 50, that would be huge for the morale, and would allow that Crew to look as though progress is being made in the HGOP.

    Rauner is about the RaunerPAC that threatens to support GOP …or… Dem candidates who support Bruce Rauner, or the monies Rauner has promised as a GOTV in GOP races with little or no chance of a Caucus victory, but, “surprise, surprise” a victory for Rauner and Raunerites at the expense of fooling good hearted Republicans.

    I really like how Durkin is going about changing the HGOP culture, and getting to 50 will lead to some credibility too.


  2. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Willie, since you keep calling the GOP “your party”. I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.


  3. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Good bye Sue Scherer, you better hold on tight to Manar’s coat tails to drag you across the finish because that is your best bet.

    I think Cloonen will also have a very tough race, I can see Glenn Nixon picking this seat back up. And I don’t see Durkin being as lackadaisical as Cross’s campaign team was with this race.


  4. - CirularFiringSquad - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:05 am:

    So Durkie’s goal is to emerge from SuperMinority status? Wow talk about big dreams. Mitt will need to spend tons through the back door and GOPies will need to reprogram candidates like Proft’s PeteyBreen to avoid some of those unpleasant moments that infect whole slate.
    Fire, Aim, Ready!


  5. - the Patriot - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    The most under written political story in IL, is the incompetence of the republican party. But for one billionaire mixing it up, we are going to toss another election cycle in the trash.

    I have thought for a while if Rauner really wanted to mix things up, he should have found some candidates to run against vulnerable dems. I know it ends up pushing people to the polls, but getting elected and fighting a super majority in the legislature does not accomplish anything.

    200k in 10 legislative districts is only 2 million which is a drop in the bucket for what he will spend in his race, but could end up picking off 3-4 of the right legislators.


  6. - Been There - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    ===The HGOPs only need to pick up one net seat to emerge from the super-minority dungeon.===
    With Jack Franks the House GOP are usually not in the super minority dungeon anyway. But as OW states getting to 50 for Durkin could be a morale changer for that side of the aisle. And as Rich has pointed out in the past, Madigan might prefer not to have a super majority. At least some in the media would lose their sound bite about Madigan can pass whatever he wants whenever he wants.


  7. - walker - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    Also have high hopes for Durkin at the GOP state level; he’s not the kind of guy who gets pushed around.

    Dorgan’s leaving was a loss, though maybe temporary.

    A Guy: Yes, we can tell you’re involved. :)

    With respect.


  8. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:20 am:

    ===I hope you’re doing your part somewhere where it matters. Before you ask…yes I am.===

    Supporting the Blago of the GOP is not helping “My Party”. Supporting a candidate who touts a PAC for both Dems and the GOP is not supporting “My Party”. You are not helping anyone but Raunerites, and you don’t even see it.

    Doing my part? I feel pretty comfortable giving my support, and showing it as I see fit. Plus, I am more helpful not being a “yes man” in a chorus of “yes men”.


  10. - Anonymous - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    “Too many purple people change the shade of hard blue he’s used to.”

    In my recent memory, the HDem caucus has not ever been a caucus that consisted entirely of “hard blues”. Part of the success that MJM has had is the result of pulling the more moderate Democrats into his corner.


  11. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    Walk, thanks.
    Working for 5 legislative candidates. Contrary to what might be assumed, the legislature is much closer to the people than the Governor is. Local races always dominate my efforts. I will say that I’m running into plenty of Rauner folks in the field who are also carrying for the local candidates in South DuPage County. I would guess they have folks elsewhere too.


  12. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    === I still think MJM will breathe a sigh of relief when he has a significant majority and not a super majority. ===

    I agree. Its too easy for the IL GOP to do nothing except complain and blame the super-majority.

    And yet, on the key issue facing Illinois, reality is not going to go away. We need:

    A. More revenue; or

    B. Significant cuts beyond the mythical “waste fraud and abuse”

    Neither option will be popular with voters.


  13. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    Don’t forget that Rauner’s term limit amendment would re-define “super majority”


  14. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Well said Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:55 am.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I am not at all against our side (GOP) having to stand up and be a part of a real negotiation. A few more votes on our side would cause that. They don’t deserve a pass, but they need to know making the case has a potential for impact. 50-51 members in your caucus is enough to do so.


  16. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    Has anyone identified the 5 seats most likely to flip to the GOP?


  17. - Anon - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 11:38 am:

    If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. A lot would depend upon how the new districts are drawn.


  18. - Federalist - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    Illinois is a Blue state becoming ‘bluer’ as time progresses. Republicans may have occasional victories but not longstanding.

    No matter how poorly the state is run I do not see this trend changing.

    Many factors but main reason is demographics.


  19. - Bill White - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    === If the Rauner amendment passes, there will be more House seats and fewer Senate seats. ===

    My understanding is that won’t happen until redistricting after the 2020 Census.

    On the other hand, the increased number of votes to over ride a veto would be effective immediately, which changes the definition of super-majority.


  20. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    I wonder if a chosen few state senate and house candidates are going to get the lion’s share of the HGOP and SGOP resources as in the past. I understand that Cross was spending over six figures on “Friends of Tom” in legisalative races last time around, while starving the grass roots candidates and refusing to put resources to attract better candidates to take on Dems.

    One of the problems I’ve noticed is that there’s practically NO money in state GOP coffers out there with which to entice competitive GOP candidates into races.

    Virtually every district with a 45% GOP base and less than 25% mionrity voters has at least one person in the district who could make the race competitive and possibly win in the general.

    I’m talking about people who have been elected to local municipal or school office who have some political organization, a base of support, the “right” ethnicity for the district and political skills.

    These folks won’t run unless they have some bucks committed by House or Senate committees before they start. Most are politically ambitious for personal gain (just about the main commonality amongst Illinois candidates of both parties), and it will take a state party funding committment of $30K to $40K for them to step into the ring.

    In the past, Cross and Radogno had no interest in that sort of thing. They just poured obscene amounts of cash into a few friends campaign funds.

    I suspect that little has changed from the Cross HGOP days to build the party. Anyone out there have examples that prove me wrong?


  21. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 8:39 pm:

    My take:

    Hard to see a scenario where Democrats lose seats in the General Assembly while Quinn wins.

    So: Madigan most definitely wants to hold onto a super-majority, unless you buy into the conspiracy that MJM wants Rauner.

    If Rauner is governor, it does not matter if Durkin has 47 or 50 or 55. He will have a seat at the table AND House Republicans will have to do some lifting.

    Do not expect Republicans to stop sitting on their hands just because they pick up seats. They sat on their hands when they were in the minority before, which is how they became super-minorities.


  22. - steve schnorf - Monday, Jun 23, 14 @ 10:46 pm:

    I re-read this thing: Governing really goes out on a limb here: the Ds will probably keep their majority status. Wow!


  23. - Stand - Tuesday, Jun 24, 14 @ 9:09 am:

    I believe the term limit amendment calls for immediate re districting to account for the changes in the number of legislators.


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