SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Rothenberg moves CD10 to “Pure Toss-Up” partly because of Quinn

Monday, Jul 21, 2014

* Stu Rothenberg has moved the 10th CD from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

IL 10 (Schneider, D). Brad Schneider squeaked out a win over Republican incumbent Bob Dold by just over a percentage point (fewer than 3,500 votes) in 2012. Now, Dold has a re-match, figuring that in an off-year, and without President Obama on the ballot, he has a better chance to win. Dold ran a strong race before and he appears to have a small advantage right now. Democrats have reason to worry about that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn will meltdown outside of Chicago and affect the party’s chances in House races. This contest should be very close once again and we’re moving it from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

It’s tough to beat an incumbent, as evidenced by Schneider barely eking out a win against a Republican freshman in a huge Democratic year. This will obviously not be a huge Democratic year. And Quinn is under-performing most of the rest of the ticket pretty much everywhere else. He could turn out to be a significant drag.

Your thoughts on this race?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    “It’s a ‘North Shore’ thing” I kept hearing last go-round.

    Remember the “paint” Ad, probably the most misunderstood Ad of the cycle, but was explained as “North Shore” perfect.

    As much as that “area” is fiercely independent, the dropping of Quinn may or may not, of all the CDs in play, be a measurable factor if those two candidates keep everything close to home base, and make it all about the 10th.

    Either that district IS fiercely independent or it isn’t. This time we may find that out best(?)


  2. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    I’m interested to see Schneider’s spots. I thought his “paint” couple was the best spot of the cycle, by far, the last time out. A real home run. I wonder if they’ll be back?

    And I was mesmerized by his LBJ Medicare spot. I don’t know who or how someone came up with the idea that running a clip of LBJ talking about Medicare was a winner on the North Shore, but I couldn’t take my eyes off of it.

    I saw it a couple of times in a tavern and the whole place went silent when it came on. Real stopping power.


  3. - Apocolypse Now - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:47 pm:

    Democratic voter apathy will impact most Democratic candidates throughout the state. Not necessarily solely a Quinn thing. More of national issue. Even Dick Durbin is only polling at 51% in his race.


  4. - Sue - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:52 pm:

    IMO- it has more or as much to do with the President as it is a Quinn association- Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District


  5. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Coat tails run both ways.


  6. - Steve - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    The thing to watch is : the outside money coming showing up in the last 60 days.


  7. - Amalia - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    Schneider is even less compelling personally than Dold, but Tenth Dems is a great group and adds real energy for the incumbent.


  8. - DuPage Bard - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:20 pm:

    I’d like to see polling about whether Quinn is pulling down any of the State House races.


  9. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    (Sigh)
    It has been a bad year so far for incumbents. There is only so much crap voters are going to take. We aren’t seeing an economic rebound effecting the general voter malaise which seems stuck on negative. There hasn’t been much to cheer about domestically, nationally or internationally.

    I suggest all incumbents to hold onto dear life three months from now and take any win they can.


  10. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    I have a hunch we’ll see more of this around the Northeast Illinois area and maybe in Central Illinois too. It’s hard to evaluate just how frustrated people are with Pat Quinn. Could help in as many as 4 of these Congressional races.


  11. - Bogart - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Quinn won despite himself and he may lose despite himself.


  12. - Adam Smith - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”

    Additionally, Dold has kept pace in fundraising, has not stopped campaigning, and retains very high name ID and favorables, and has been laser focused on ground game (where he lost last time). Schenider has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.

    Outside money will be huge and the edge in that category is likely to go to Schneider, but Dold will also get a fair share of IE dough.


  13. - Just Observing - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:55 pm:

    === It’s tough to beat an incumbent ===

    I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    ===Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”===

    We are told time and time again the 10th is fiercely independent.

    What, it’s “independent” if you win, and “partisan” when you lose?

    Which 4?

    Callis/Davis? That is more about students and off year.

    Schneider/Dold? While making it “toss-up” that district is about Indies of the North Shore bent, and finding that sweet spot.

    Enyart/Bost? That might be more about mixing a national narrative to District concerns more than any race in Illinois. Example? Scott AFB.

    Foster/Senger? This could be most effected by Quinn/Rauner, but have to believe Foster would want it to be more Durbin/Oberweis and Foster getting chummy with Durbin more than Quinn.

    That leaves Bustos, and the Quad Cities and the financial advantages.

    The 5 are on their own, no help from Quinn or Rauner, and let’s be very clear; Rauner has shown no Ground Game for himself, let alone anyone else. Rauner is counting on others to carry him, not the reverse.

    Callis/Davis and Schneider/Dold are your Tier 1 races.

    They are.


  15. - lake county democrat - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    Those who say gerrymandering has no real world impact haven’t watched this district - for all it’s alleged “fierce independence” it hasn’t gone Democrat since Mikva and only close a couple of times. The problem Schneider is going to have is 1) he has acted like a zombie for the past two years and 2) a lot of key Democrat issues don’t resonate strongly in his district outside of Waukegan and a couple of other pockets. Dold has done a good job portraying himself as a moderate when really he’s just “not pure Tea Party” - if I were Schneider I’d go negative fast.


  16. - Responsa - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    Schneider has tied himself exclusively to Obama’s policies much, much more than one would have expected. In representing the tenth the way to prove you’re independent and thinking for and about all your constituents–not just parroting your party’s line– is to vote against your party’s position sometimes, and be really obvious about it. Porter knew that, and Kirk knew that.


  17. - Sue - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    The ACA will be a big issue for Schneider with all of the pre-medicare retirees on the North Shore- The ACA may be great for the subsidy eligible population but if you retired early, aren’t low income and bought your own insurance, Obama Care is costing you a fortune. Schneider caught lots of grief over people losing their pre ACA coverage and can thank this issue if he tanks in November


  18. - E town - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:59 pm:

    I have spoken to a number of men and women in the Laura Fine district this summer who have said they will be supporting Rauner after supporting Quinn four years ago however those same folks have told me they will be supporting Laura. I don’t think he will be a drag on most House candidates on North Shore but he certainly won’t be any help. These people know Madigan and Cullerton will stay in control so they know the only possible change that can happen is at the top and of course Rauner being from North Shore increases their comfort level as opposed to Brady four years ago


  19. - A. Nonymous - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 6:45 pm:

    @ Sue “Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District”

    LOL. Liberals complain Schneider is too conservative. Heck, they complain Obama is too conservative.

    “Most liberal wing?” Whatevs.

    @ Adam Smith “Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts.”

    You might want to re-read those 2012 vote tallies Adam.

    And - “Schenider [sic] has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.”

    And yet there are regular articles about Schneider visiting local businesses and talking with voters in different parts of the district.

    Again, whatevs.

    JO - “I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.”

    I’ll take that bet because they’d more than likely pick Kirk.

    Dold’s name ID is as low as Schneider’s.


  20. - ANON - Tuesday, Jul 22, 14 @ 12:16 am:

    Summing up this race.

    1. Dold is his campaign’s greatest asset. Put him in front of anyone and it would be difficult not to like him. Schneider is awkward and full of himself. In the district he is a recluse.

    2. Field, Schneider’s okay here. He is doing a lot of voter registration, recording their addresses and emails and then trying to turn out those voters. Bob’s field game is incredible though. They have shown up everywhere, recently capping off with a week long Bus Tour. Their strategy is a lot of door knocking and really becoming apart of the community. They crush their numbers and are creative.

    3. Check for Brad, he is the incumbent. Dold is on his heels though 1.6 vs 1.9 million I think.

    4. Intangibles? Quinn/ACA is unpopular. The state is last in job creation. This is not the year to be a progressive democrat (incumbent). Brad hasn’t done much at all in Congress (supporting only one budget, a Paul Ryan one!) and has a very difficult job of relating to IL10 voters. It’s a more blue collar district now, and not only can he not relate, but he doesn’t have the answers for IL10 voters.

    This is too close for a D+8. Schneider is a weak candidate and Bob is his campaign’s greatest asset. The more people he sees, the more likely he will win. And I think he will.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Summers compares Trump to Rauner
* New White House website references "thousands of shootings in Chicago"
* Let's try cashing in on our rich heritage
* And now for a little bit of good news
* Unemployment up, jobs down
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 - Kirk declined to fly with Obama *** Kirk won't stop saying goofy things
* Um... about that "fully funded" boast
* Cullerton, Radogno "playing coy" about tax hike percentage
* "Institute" ginning up opposition to Senate deal
* A SOTS preview?
* IDOT warns of doom for I-55 toll lanes
* Is the end near for legislator pensions?
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* ‘Hot Wheels: Race Off’ review
* LG G6 could be the first non-Google phone with Assistant on-board
* Galaxy Note 7 explosion report: why did Samsung’s phablet blow up? (Video)
* 200,000 people signed up for DirecTV Now at launch
* Sonos wants to integrate voice assistants into its speaker lineup
* [TA Deals] Master data science and analytics with this bundle for less than $50
* T-Mobile Tuesday for two

* Dominican Republic academy re-opens with upgrades
* Dominican Republic academy re-opens with upgrades
* New Hall of Famers reflect on highest honor
* Fans will be able to stream live games in '17
* New Hall of Famers get their close-up
* Williams says Hall not just for 'all-time greats'
* Collins named fourth-best catching prospect in MLB

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Statehouse Insider: Will this week break the bu.....
* Illinois governor extends tax incentive program.....
* Illinois governor extends tax incentive program.....


* The Latest: Trump can't miss marchers on trip home from CIA
* Crowds turn out for women's marches across Illinois
* Aaron Schock case assigned to federal judge in Urbana
* The Latest: Chicago protesters spill into city's downtown
* More female wrestlers competing in Illinois high schools
* Illinois Supreme Court strikes down Chicago rental car tax
* Illinois Supreme Court strikes down Chicago rental car tax
* 2 convicted in shooting that paralyzed "Hoop Dreams" player
* 6 cops suspended for mishandling crash involving fire deputy

* Governor extends tax incentive program
* Schock case reassigned to Urbana's Judge Colin Bruce
* Background-checks policy leads U of I to withdraw 11 job offers
* Film industry generates half-billion in Illinois spending
* Illinois Senate leaders promise budget-deal vote Wednesday
* Jesse White wants ads on license plate renewal reminders to offset cost
* A new tax on sodas, sugary drinks? It might be part of Illinois budget deal
* Jesse White wants ads on license renewal reminders to offset cost
* Jesse White wants advertisements on license renewal reminders to help offset cost
* New state app aims to help students with career choices

* In the market for a new home? Here are your best bets.
* Illinois Holocaust Museum bets on rock 'n' roll
* How this Loop company survived the killing of its CEO
* Thousands of marchers flood downtown Chicago
* Jimmy John talks!


* Steelers-Patriots AFC title game has makings of a classic
* Riccardo Muti makes grand return to La Scala with CSO tour
* Police warn of masked robbers on West Side
* No. 13 Butler fights off DePaul in overtime
* Saturday’s ‘rare’ warm weather comes close, but misses record
* Michigan drops Illinois to 2-5 in Big Ten play
* Trump assures CIA officials: ‘I am so behind you’
* Police: Man killed in West Side shooting
* Driver arrested after 3 injured in Evanston crash
* 3 arrested during investigation of fatal Melrose Park shooting


* Gambia's defeated leader leaves country, ends standoff
* Trump assures CIA officials 'I am so behind you' after criticizing intelligence community
* 1 dead, 3 wounded in city shootings
* 'Is God mad?' Mississippi tornado wreaks havoc; kills 4
* In D.C. and around the world, women (and men) push back against new president
* NWI residents pack Chicago streets for women's march
* DePaul upset bid of No. 13 Butler falls short in 70-69 OT loss
* Prime Minister Netanyahu probed for excessive gift consumption and media manipulation
* Search continues for survivors in avalanche-destroyed hotel in Italy
* I reported on Obama longer than anyone else. Here's what I learned.


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Statehouse Insider: Will this week break the budget logjam?
* Our View: Give President Trump a chance to succeed
* Guest Column: Put politics aside and pass a state budget
* Charles Krauthammer: Obama’s self-revealing final act
* Governor extends tax incentive program
* Schock case reassigned to Urbana's Judge Colin Bruce
* Background-checks policy leads U of I to withdraw 11 job offers
* Film industry generates half-billion in Illinois spending
* Illinois Senate leaders promise budget-deal vote Wednesday
* Jesse White wants ads on license plate renewal reminders to offset cost


* PHOTOS: Archer's Alley Indoor Regional Tournament 012117
* Women's March
* Proposal would lower signature requirement for independent, third party candidates
* Hundreds gather in Carbondale to march for human rights
* LIVE! Michigan
* Tax Man cometh, but refunds could be delayed
* Smashing Pumpkins frontman Billy Corgan visits Metropolis on #ThirtyDay tour
* Marion man charged with aggravated arson
* UPDATE: Tight end picks 'Illinois University'
* UPDATE: Suspect in Champaign bank robbery arrested


* Mount Prospect police search for carjacking suspect
* Constable: Trumps inspires marches, tears, art
* Chen dominates men's short program at US nationals
* Nielsen: 31 million viewers saw Trump's swearing-in
* Biathlon body clears 22 Russians, investigating 7 others

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Bipartisan bill aims to reform H-1B visa s......
* Bipartisan bill aims to reform H-1B visa s......

* Ex-Sen. Kirk may become lobbyist, complain......

* Capitol Fax: New White House website references “thousands of shootings in Chicago”
* Trump taking the oath and inaugural speech
* Thorner: Join the effort to preserve the Constitution
* Thorner/O'Neil: Will Trump drop the ridiculous notion of drafting women?
* Thorner/O'Neil: Will Trump drop his predecessor's ridiculous notion of drafting women?
* Knight: A Department of Justice worthy of its name
* 2016 World Series Champions Chicago Cubs honored at White House
* Moore tells women: Welcome to Day 2 of the Trump Travesty
* Fantasies always predominate in political people’s mentalities
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective


* New Authority Allows DCFS to Strengthen and Preserve Families - Federal waiver grants DCFS flexibility to better care for fostered youth
* Illinois Film Industry Generates $499 Million in 2016 - Chicago named #5 Best Place to Live and Work as a Moviemaker
* State Announces Free Tax Preparation for Low Income Families
* Governor Announces Appointments
* Governor Takes Bill Action




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller