SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Rothenberg moves CD10 to “Pure Toss-Up” partly because of Quinn

Monday, Jul 21, 2014

* Stu Rothenberg has moved the 10th CD from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

IL 10 (Schneider, D). Brad Schneider squeaked out a win over Republican incumbent Bob Dold by just over a percentage point (fewer than 3,500 votes) in 2012. Now, Dold has a re-match, figuring that in an off-year, and without President Obama on the ballot, he has a better chance to win. Dold ran a strong race before and he appears to have a small advantage right now. Democrats have reason to worry about that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn will meltdown outside of Chicago and affect the party’s chances in House races. This contest should be very close once again and we’re moving it from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

It’s tough to beat an incumbent, as evidenced by Schneider barely eking out a win against a Republican freshman in a huge Democratic year. This will obviously not be a huge Democratic year. And Quinn is under-performing most of the rest of the ticket pretty much everywhere else. He could turn out to be a significant drag.

Your thoughts on this race?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    “It’s a ‘North Shore’ thing” I kept hearing last go-round.

    Remember the “paint” Ad, probably the most misunderstood Ad of the cycle, but was explained as “North Shore” perfect.

    As much as that “area” is fiercely independent, the dropping of Quinn may or may not, of all the CDs in play, be a measurable factor if those two candidates keep everything close to home base, and make it all about the 10th.

    Either that district IS fiercely independent or it isn’t. This time we may find that out best(?)


  2. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    I’m interested to see Schneider’s spots. I thought his “paint” couple was the best spot of the cycle, by far, the last time out. A real home run. I wonder if they’ll be back?

    And I was mesmerized by his LBJ Medicare spot. I don’t know who or how someone came up with the idea that running a clip of LBJ talking about Medicare was a winner on the North Shore, but I couldn’t take my eyes off of it.

    I saw it a couple of times in a tavern and the whole place went silent when it came on. Real stopping power.


  3. - Apocolypse Now - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:47 pm:

    Democratic voter apathy will impact most Democratic candidates throughout the state. Not necessarily solely a Quinn thing. More of national issue. Even Dick Durbin is only polling at 51% in his race.


  4. - Sue - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:52 pm:

    IMO- it has more or as much to do with the President as it is a Quinn association- Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District


  5. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Coat tails run both ways.


  6. - Steve - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    The thing to watch is : the outside money coming showing up in the last 60 days.


  7. - Amalia - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    Schneider is even less compelling personally than Dold, but Tenth Dems is a great group and adds real energy for the incumbent.


  8. - DuPage Bard - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:20 pm:

    I’d like to see polling about whether Quinn is pulling down any of the State House races.


  9. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    (Sigh)
    It has been a bad year so far for incumbents. There is only so much crap voters are going to take. We aren’t seeing an economic rebound effecting the general voter malaise which seems stuck on negative. There hasn’t been much to cheer about domestically, nationally or internationally.

    I suggest all incumbents to hold onto dear life three months from now and take any win they can.


  10. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    I have a hunch we’ll see more of this around the Northeast Illinois area and maybe in Central Illinois too. It’s hard to evaluate just how frustrated people are with Pat Quinn. Could help in as many as 4 of these Congressional races.


  11. - Bogart - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Quinn won despite himself and he may lose despite himself.


  12. - Adam Smith - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:53 pm:

    Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”

    Additionally, Dold has kept pace in fundraising, has not stopped campaigning, and retains very high name ID and favorables, and has been laser focused on ground game (where he lost last time). Schenider has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.

    Outside money will be huge and the edge in that category is likely to go to Schneider, but Dold will also get a fair share of IE dough.


  13. - Just Observing - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:55 pm:

    === It’s tough to beat an incumbent ===

    I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    ===Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”===

    We are told time and time again the 10th is fiercely independent.

    What, it’s “independent” if you win, and “partisan” when you lose?

    Which 4?

    Callis/Davis? That is more about students and off year.

    Schneider/Dold? While making it “toss-up” that district is about Indies of the North Shore bent, and finding that sweet spot.

    Enyart/Bost? That might be more about mixing a national narrative to District concerns more than any race in Illinois. Example? Scott AFB.

    Foster/Senger? This could be most effected by Quinn/Rauner, but have to believe Foster would want it to be more Durbin/Oberweis and Foster getting chummy with Durbin more than Quinn.

    That leaves Bustos, and the Quad Cities and the financial advantages.

    The 5 are on their own, no help from Quinn or Rauner, and let’s be very clear; Rauner has shown no Ground Game for himself, let alone anyone else. Rauner is counting on others to carry him, not the reverse.

    Callis/Davis and Schneider/Dold are your Tier 1 races.

    They are.


  15. - lake county democrat - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    Those who say gerrymandering has no real world impact haven’t watched this district - for all it’s alleged “fierce independence” it hasn’t gone Democrat since Mikva and only close a couple of times. The problem Schneider is going to have is 1) he has acted like a zombie for the past two years and 2) a lot of key Democrat issues don’t resonate strongly in his district outside of Waukegan and a couple of other pockets. Dold has done a good job portraying himself as a moderate when really he’s just “not pure Tea Party” - if I were Schneider I’d go negative fast.


  16. - Responsa - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    Schneider has tied himself exclusively to Obama’s policies much, much more than one would have expected. In representing the tenth the way to prove you’re independent and thinking for and about all your constituents–not just parroting your party’s line– is to vote against your party’s position sometimes, and be really obvious about it. Porter knew that, and Kirk knew that.


  17. - Sue - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    The ACA will be a big issue for Schneider with all of the pre-medicare retirees on the North Shore- The ACA may be great for the subsidy eligible population but if you retired early, aren’t low income and bought your own insurance, Obama Care is costing you a fortune. Schneider caught lots of grief over people losing their pre ACA coverage and can thank this issue if he tanks in November


  18. - E town - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:59 pm:

    I have spoken to a number of men and women in the Laura Fine district this summer who have said they will be supporting Rauner after supporting Quinn four years ago however those same folks have told me they will be supporting Laura. I don’t think he will be a drag on most House candidates on North Shore but he certainly won’t be any help. These people know Madigan and Cullerton will stay in control so they know the only possible change that can happen is at the top and of course Rauner being from North Shore increases their comfort level as opposed to Brady four years ago


  19. - A. Nonymous - Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 6:45 pm:

    @ Sue “Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District”

    LOL. Liberals complain Schneider is too conservative. Heck, they complain Obama is too conservative.

    “Most liberal wing?” Whatevs.

    @ Adam Smith “Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts.”

    You might want to re-read those 2012 vote tallies Adam.

    And - “Schenider [sic] has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.”

    And yet there are regular articles about Schneider visiting local businesses and talking with voters in different parts of the district.

    Again, whatevs.

    JO - “I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.”

    I’ll take that bet because they’d more than likely pick Kirk.

    Dold’s name ID is as low as Schneider’s.


  20. - ANON - Tuesday, Jul 22, 14 @ 12:16 am:

    Summing up this race.

    1. Dold is his campaign’s greatest asset. Put him in front of anyone and it would be difficult not to like him. Schneider is awkward and full of himself. In the district he is a recluse.

    2. Field, Schneider’s okay here. He is doing a lot of voter registration, recording their addresses and emails and then trying to turn out those voters. Bob’s field game is incredible though. They have shown up everywhere, recently capping off with a week long Bus Tour. Their strategy is a lot of door knocking and really becoming apart of the community. They crush their numbers and are creative.

    3. Check for Brad, he is the incumbent. Dold is on his heels though 1.6 vs 1.9 million I think.

    4. Intangibles? Quinn/ACA is unpopular. The state is last in job creation. This is not the year to be a progressive democrat (incumbent). Brad hasn’t done much at all in Congress (supporting only one budget, a Paul Ryan one!) and has a very difficult job of relating to IL10 voters. It’s a more blue collar district now, and not only can he not relate, but he doesn’t have the answers for IL10 voters.

    This is too close for a D+8. Schneider is a weak candidate and Bob is his campaign’s greatest asset. The more people he sees, the more likely he will win. And I think he will.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* *** UPDATED *** THIS JUST IN... Judge orders permanent stay on pension law
* Today's number: 10 percent
* Unclear on the concept
* Could be a big day
* Question of the day
* Illinois leaders react to Obama's immigration order
* TrackBill – An Introduction
* Caption contest!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Endomondo Android app adds Pebble support
        * Yahoo Acquires Photo Startup Cooliris
        * Jolla phone scores big discount in celebration of crowdfunding success
        * The Week in iPhone Cases: American flags, Adidas, leather pouches, and more
        * Amazon could go ad-supported for new video service
        * Ohm Bluetooth speaker is also a Qi wireless charger
        * Withings Wireless Blood Pressure Monitor review: HealthKit compatibility doesn't add much

        * Google Giving Away 1TB Drive Storage With Chromebook Purchases
        * Apple’s New iPhones Found Capable Of 4K Video Playback
        * Nexus 6′s Encryption Found To Hamper Performance
        * Prepare Now to Avoid the Effects of Seasonal Affective Disorder
        * Android 5.0 Delayed For HTC’s Google Play Edition Handsets
        * Photoshop Streaming Makes Its Way Onto Chrome
        * Blizzard Announces World Of Warcraft 10th Anniversary In-Game Events

        * White Sox sign Adam LaRoche to two-year, $25 million deal
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Down year doesn't derail White Sox hopes for Johnson
        * White Sox reportedly asking about catcher Montero
        * Nine things about White Sox waiver claim Onelki Garcia
        * Sox add five to 40-man roster, DFA Ronald Belisario, outright Jared...
        * Sox protect four from Rule 5 Draft

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Judge rejects Illinois pension reform law - CNBC..
        * Judge: Illinois pension overhaul unconstitution.....
        * If Labor stayed home, then they reaped what the.....
        * Illinois judge set to rule on state's pension l.....
        * Judge Rejects Overhaul of Illinois’s Beleaguere.....
        * Colorado oil, gas task force begins outlining k.....


        * New study shows impact of military in Illinois
        * Congressman says he still deciding what to do next
        * Judge rules Illinois pension law unconstitutional
        * State to refund retiree health care money
        * Legislative leaders weigh in on pension decision
        * Rauner wants quick ruling on pension law appeal
        * Legislative leaders weigh in on pension decision
        * AG Madigan to 'immediately' appeal pension ruling
        * Illinois prepares for Obama's immigration action
        * Labor unions declare victory in pension ruling

        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * Illinois pension case likely headed to high court
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances, wants Quinn to freeze hiring
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances
        * Judge to hear pension law arguments today
        * Split court: Illinois red-light camera law stands

        * Rich Miller on Springfield
        * Rauner election starts feeding frenzy for jobs
        * Illinois judge set to rule on state's pension law
        * House GOP sues administration over health care law
        * Threat becomes reality: House GOP sues Obama over health care law


        * Time for all-new plan on pensions
        * Dr. Lawrence Solomon: Renowned dermatologist, book collector loved a mystery
        * 3 Daley scandals cost Chicago taxpayers over $6 million
        * As prisons swell, Illinois needs wiser policies
        * The Watchdogs: Rahm Emanuel’s silent partner in mayoral campaign: Mike Madigan
        * The Watchdogs: Rahm Emanuel’s silent partner in mayoral campaign: Mike Madigan
        * Rahm Emanuel’s silent partner in mayoral campaign: Mike Madigan
        * Chicago Police posting videos on Facebook to help find suspects
        * Business owners seeking pot shop licenses in Illinois faced lawsuits elsewhere
        * Arne Duncan not taking sides on CPS’ seeking delay on PARCC test


        * Man pleads guilty to brutal Arlington Heights murder
        * 2 teens charged after crashing stolen SUV into Alsip home
        * Wilmette 'Jeopardy!' champ Collins places third in final game
        * Macy's cited after 4 employees hurt while making breakfast
        * Convicted killer's trial in Lake County presents challenges
        * Orland Park massage parlor accused of offering sex
        * Officials: Fireplace cause of Glenwood fire that killed woman, 81
        * Rauner says Obama immigration move 'great start'
        * Landmark state pension law struck down by Springfield judge
        * Park Forest cop to face January trial in vet's controversial death


        * Listen to State Week - November 21, 2014
        * State To Refund Retiree Health Care Money
        * Labor unions celebrate judge's ruling against Illinois pension law
        * Judge Finds Reductions In Pension Benefits Unconstitutional
        * Pension Ruling Imminent
        * Hoosiers divided over Obama’s executive action on immigration
        * Illinois Symphony Orchestra Joins The Circus For Holiday Pops
        * School Funding Testimony Taken At Capitol
        * Incoming U of I President Speaks To Springfield Audience
        * To Restore Executive Mansion, Rauner Plans Private Funds


        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * Mark Lawlor: Input sought from area residents on Grain Belt Express project
        * Esther Cepeda: Pass the ketchup
        * E.J. Dionne: A mission for Jeb Bush
        * Deckle McLean: Plagiarism comes with a price
        * Quote of the Day: Friday, Nov. 21, 2014
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 22, 2014
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances, wants Quinn to freeze hiring


        * Institute to offer cardiac screenings
        * Efficiency Stats - Austin Peay
        * Q&A with DeJazz Woods
        * Breaking it down: UI-Penn State
        * Tate: Future's bright ... for Penn State
        * Kent State leads SIU men 43-28 at the break
        * Preseason Top 5: No. 3 Mahomet-Seymour
        * Robbers hit New Berlin business
        * Moline church builds, donates $1M road to city
        * Austin Peay Pre-Game 11-21-14


        * 5 years prison for former St. Charles man in mail-order pot scheme
        * Former Barrington man gets 23 years in 2011 Schaumburg robbery
        * Danault gets a shot with Hawks
        * Mariani hopes for many happy returns
        * ‘I killed Roxana,' man charged in hatchet murder told his dad, authorities say

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Guest lineups for the Sunday news shows...
        * Immigration advocates celebrate executive ......
        * Immigration advocates celebrate executive ......
        * Immigration advocates celebrate executive ......
        * Immigration advocates celebrate executive ......

        * Obama Faces Tough Crowd At Home On Iran Nu......
        * Devereaux and union reach accord before Ha......

        * Illinois Unemployment Rate Stays Fixed At 6.6% In October
        * Poll: American Views On Immigration Trend In Positive Direction
        * State Supreme Court Tosses Out Chicago Red-Light Camera Case
        * Durbin speaks about immigration reform at Casa Michoacan
        * Durbin attends an Obama viewing party in Pilsen
        * Immigration reform advocates watch Obama speak during a viewing party at Casa Michoacan
        * The Week In Chicago Rock
        * The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #27: The Bears Are Like Butter
        * Starkehaus: The Cosby Convergence
        * Rauner says Obama immigration move a 'great start'


        * Illinois Residents Asked to Put the Tobacco Down - Support the Great American Smokeout – November 20
        * Governor Quinn Statement on President Obama’s Executive Action
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Selection of New University of Illinois President
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Senate Committee Passage of Minimum Wage Legislation
        * Governor Quinn Statement on the Installation of Archbishop Blase Cupich




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller