SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x2 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: 130-page oppo dump on Rep. Ken Dunkin's past
* Hey, he's just doin' what he said he'd do
* This Just In: Exelon Announces More $$$$ For Shareholders, Higher 2015 Profits And Still Seeks Bailout
* "Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"
* *** UPDATED x2 - Stratton responds - IllinoisGO checking the facts *** "Mug shot" mailer hits Ken Dunkin
* Credit Unions – A Smarter Choice!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Money, Endorsements, Muñoz, Farnham
* *** UPDATED x1 *** State to close Kewanee youth center
* Today's political videos
* *** UPDATED x2 - Duckworth doubles down - But what about Kirk's Rahm endorsement? *** Because... Rahm!
* As expected, Rauner endorses McCann opponent
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Dunkin mailers, Alvarez poll results and xtabs, etc.
* Pot, meet kettle
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Google Maps navigation finally learns to shut up when it should
* [Deal] BlackBerry discounts both the Priv and Passport for Valentine’s Day
* Updates for Google Docs, Sheets, Slides, Forms now rolling out
* Google updates My Maps for Android with new UI
* Verizon possibly blasting Android Marshmallow OTA to Droid Turbo 2
* T-Mobile will roll out the Marshmallow OTA for the HTC One M9 on Monday, February 16
* Facebook Messenger experimenting with SMS (again), Material Design

* Top Sox prospects to compete for jobs in camp
* White Sox reportedly considering Desmond
* White Sox reportedly in on Desmond
* Lefty-heavy rotation not a concern
* Melky: White Sox must play like family to contend
* White Sox remodel in big way this offseason
* White Sox ink Ishikawa to Minor League deal

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Quit playing games and pass a state budget - Be.....
* Rauner to close troubled downstate youth detent.....
* The Latest: Legislator says Kewanee plan is 'op.....
* The Latest: Legislator says Kewanee plan is 'op.....
* Chicago State students juggle doubt, debt as bu.....
* Chicago State students juggle doubt, debt as bu.....


* Ray LaHood, NPR host among Order of Lincoln award winners
* The Latest: Legislator says Kewanee plan is 'opportunity'
* Illinois to close youth correctional facility in Kewanee
* Illinois roads could benefit from potential $84.7M windfall
* AP Interview: Police shooting spurs state agency changes
* Illinois governor's mansion renovation gets $1M in donations
* Chicago-area priest charged with sexual abusing 2 children
* Illinois youth soccer group bans hitting ball with head
* SIU small business center to close due to no Illinois budget
* EXCHANGE: Richwoods swim team includes 4 sets of brothers

* American Legion, others pay homage to Abraham Lincoln
* American Legion, others pay homage to 16th president
* Illinois roads could benefit from potential $84.7 million windfall
* Gov. Rauner endorses Bryce Benton in Illinois Senate race
* Ray LaHood, NPR host among Order of Lincoln award winners
* Rauner closing youth correctional facility in Kewanee
* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Bill aims to create foundation to raise private money for state fairgrounds

* Chicago Sun-Times goes it alone—for now
* Here's where Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is selling his amazing rug collection
* A family defends its honor after settling lawsuit over its failed bank
* Autopsy reports found from 1929 Valentine's Day massacre
* Beam Suntory plotting headquarters move to Chicago


* CSO responds to magical touch of a Russian maestro
* The stage is almost set for the Blackhawks’ Stadium Series game
* Blackhawks hoping to get Artemi Panarin back for Ducks game
* Blackhawks will have their first-ever game broadcast in Spanish
* Mailer dubs Rep. Ken Dunkin criminal and ‘deadbeat dad’
* Linda Yu’s daughter, Francesca Baer, on Friday’s ‘Hawaii 5-O’
* Emanuel downplays police controvery
* Blackhawks will have their first-ever game broadcast in Spanish
* Tales from the Front: When you’re cheap on first date, don’t count on a second
* Watch the Johnny Oduya tribute video from Thursday’s Blackhawks game


* S&P downgrades College of DuPage credit rating
* Rauner to close troubled downstate youth detention center
* Chicago teen shot in leg no stranger to gunfire
* Alleged 'con man' posing as psychologist treated 44 patients: prosecutors
* Autopsy reports found from Chicago's Valentine's Day massacre
* Record number of riders take 'L,' but bus use slips in 2015, CTA says
* Man wounded in Chicago Lawn shooting
* Former college tennis coach acquitted of stalking ex-girlfriend
* Man charged in kidnapping, carjacking, shooting at mall awaits verdict
* Bail set at $50,000 for priest accused of molesting girls in Aurora


* American Legion, others pay homage to Abraham Lincoln
* American Legion, others pay homage to 16th president
* Illinois roads could benefit from potential $84.7 million windfall
* Gov. Rauner endorses Bryce Benton in Illinois Senate race
* Ray LaHood, NPR host among Order of Lincoln award winners
* Rauner closing youth correctional facility in Kewanee
* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Our View: Illinois officials should heed Obama's call for civility, compromise


* Sports Talk 2-12-16
* Shots fired in north Champaign Friday afternoon
* PODCAST: Illini Notebook with Brian Barnhart
* Man gets 12 years for firing gun in store
* Driver in fatal crash pleads guilty to DUI
* Tom's #Mailbag, Feb. 12, 2015
* Tom's #Mailbag, Feb. 12, 2016
* Urbana man charged with burglary
* Illini Preview: Wildcats using depth effectively
* Pair charged after drugs, weapons found


* Gilberts-area man killed in Huntley crash -- likely his second in a few hours, police say
* Unilever might move Lisle operations to New Jersey
* Motorcycle show continues through Sunday in Rosemont
* St. Alphonsus Liguori community celebrates school's survival for one more year
* Rolling Meadows medical marijuana dispensary to open Monday

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* State Week: Obama In Springfield - WUIS 91.9...
* Durbin, senators urge DHS to use waiver au......

* Sen. Kirk Introduces Bill on Investment-Re......
* Illinois Lawmakers Court Federal Agency fo......

* Fish Fry Friday, Half-Price Happy Hour, and Other Daily Specials At Crew
* La Ciudad Brings Music To Your Dining Experience With Strolling Mariachis
* State Rep. Cassidy speaks about GED classes in the IDOC
* The PI Week In Review
* February 16 fundraiser for Frank Andreou
* Chicago's Police Accountability Task Force Faces Skeptical Public At Forum
* Lake Villa Teachers File Intent To Strike
* Grids, gamesmanship and campaign money: Comments on comments you haven't seen on FWIW
* David Studenroth interviewed on NTNM
* UPDATE X1: Kasich, Carson comment - New Hampshire primaries called for Trump and Sanders


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller