SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Monday
* The Pat Quinn rehab tour continues
* Question of the day
* IML, firefighters unite on "public duty rule"
* Nuclear Energy: Vital for Illinois’ Clean Power Plan Goals
* Tackling opioid overdoses
* Why didn't Hastert's secret come out sooner?
* A silly idea
* AG Madigan wants GA to eliminate statute of limitations for felony criminal sexual assault and sexual abuse crimes against children
* Caption contest!
* A very weird and specific law applies only to one county clerk
* Today's quotable
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Twitter Moves to 'News' Category in App Store to Boost Visibility
* AT&T and T-Mobile are both rolling out Marshmallow for the LG G3
* Sony appears to be working on a high-end compact phone with amazing cameras
* Think age is just a number? Then get the OG Moto X (2nd gen) for $200 ($150 off)
* Huawei Mate 9 tipped for late 2016 release with Kirin 960, dual 20MP rear cam
* New Report Says FBI Paid Less Than $1 Million to Unlock San Bernardino Shooter's iPhone
* The end of 2G for AT&T slated for this year

* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* Danish among top prospect performers Thursday
* Danks 'not throwing enough quality strikes'
* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* Rodon looks to stifle O's, help White Sox even set
* White Sox silenced after Frazier's early homer
* White Sox recall game in empty Oriole Park

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health c.....
* Some fear chaos after home care ruling - Northw.....
* Possible Relief for Social Services - Alton Dai.....


* EXCHANGE: Nurturing new cyclists goal of Bikes Change Lives
* Bus catches fire on Illinois highway, delaying field trip
* Chicago cop was shot when fleeing suspect tossed gun
* Chicago testing water at small number of schools for lead
* Durbin seeks national park status for Cahokia Mounds
* 6 men charged with dismembering Champaign woman
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Second man charged in fatal shooting of Chicago boy, 7
* Report: Laws holding back juveniles with criminal records
* Ex-Chicago area officer charged in Ohio with wife's death

* Young offenders hindered by system, panel finds
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Report: Laws holding back juveniles with criminal records
* Business leaders say early childhood education funding is key to filling STEM jobs in future
* Rauner says he'll consider paying for special session to reach budget agreement
* Municipal League wants law that provides broad immunity to police, firefighters
* Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert sentenced to 15 months in prison
* The Latest: Hastert says he 'mistreated' athletes he coached
* Local-government payments on $168M tax error not due before 2017
* Man who says former U.S. Rep. Hastert sexually abused him speaks at sentencing hearing

* How pricey paper invites pay off
* The owner of Chocolate Twist answers our random questions
* The triumph of business casual
* Settlement will halt selling of above-market gas under Nicor name
* Third time's a charm for Sodikoff's River North spot


* Police: Man tried to lure Albany Park student into Jeep
* Police: Attempted child luring reported in West Ridge
* Man shot in East Garfield Park
* Police: 2 robbed at gunpoint in Logan Square
* Police warn of robbers targeting lone CTA riders in Lincoln Park
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for April 29
* Dear Abby: Her hypochondria is getting unhealthy
* Brother, others related to San Bernardino shooters arrested
* Lakewood man wins $550,000 lottery prize
* Bears top pick Leonard Floyd is no sure thing


* Attempted child luring reported in Albany Park, West Rogers Park
* Medical student at Jackson Park Hospital missing from South Side
* Cops: Body found in Gary was slaying victim's missing uncle
* 3 shot on West, South sides
* Some skirmishes in aftermath of Southern California Trump rally
* North Korea sends another U.S. citizen to prison
* Vikings pick former Crete-Monee star Laquon Treadwell with 23rd pick
* Bears say top draft pick Leonard Floyd 'brings some juice to our defense'
* High, risky pick puts the pressure on Bears general manager Ryan Pace
* Bears answer the need for speed with Leonard Floyd


* Young offenders hindered by system, panel finds
* Advocates fear chaos after Rauner home health care ruling
* Report: Laws holding back juveniles with criminal records
* Bernard Schoenburg: PAC-leader Proft given 'public affairs' radio slot by policy institute
* Their View: The politics and policies of CEO pay
* Omar Duque: Nuclear energy vital for Illinois’ businesses
* George F. Will: What happens in Puerto Rico won't stay there
* Business leaders say early childhood education funding is key to filling STEM jobs in future
* Rauner says he'll consider paying for special session to reach budget agreement
* Municipal League wants law that provides broad immunity to police, firefighters


* Thursday's highlights: Sages rally past Sabers
* UI roundup: Baseball, softball condense schedules
* Nontenure faculty on picket line
* UPDATED: Bus fire delays students' trip to Chicago
* UI senior crosses item off running list
* Bollant lands second 2017 commit
* Running way of life for LeRoy man
* Boston Marathon director speaking here
* Tate: Flyin Illini, come on down
* Day 3: Inmate testifies Kelley talked about murder during Bible study


* After days of carnage, Syrian city of Aleppo mostly calm
* US fears rise of jihadists in moderate Bangladesh
* Nigerian princess seeks funds to help Boko Haram survivors
* Michel Platini arrives at CAS to fight 6-year ban by FIFA
* North Korea sends another US citizen to prison

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Sen. Durbin wants to make Cahokia Mounds a......
* Durbin seeks national park status for Caho......

* Duckworth campaign flips wigs on Senate ri......

* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Fox 32 News Helps Driver Fight Ticket From Confusing Signs
* Does Rauner think only rich need apply?
* The Clown Prince
* Chicago Launches Water Testing Programs For Homes, Schools
* Chicago Rolls Out Water Testing Programs For Homes, Schools
* Non-Tenured U Of I Faculty Begin 5-Day Strike
* CPS Preps For Possible Teachers Strike
* More Than $22 Million Spent On Illinois Primary Election Ads
* Where Do The 2016 Presidential Candidates Stand On Higher Education Funding?


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller