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Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


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