image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * The HTC One M9 is now available for £579 in the UK direct from the HTC website
        * To all the iPods I've scratched before...
        * Xiaomi launches the Redmi 2A in China, a cheaper Redmi 2
        * Next-gen Nvidia Shield Portable gets Bluetooth and WiFi certified
        * How to share images, music, and videos on your Lumia with the Files app
        * LG’s newest flagship will be announced on April 28
        * Sony Xperia T2 Ultra and C3 to get Lollipop update

        * How to Install Android 5.0.2 Lollipop (Exodus ROM) on OnePlus One – Step-by-Step Tutorial
        * New Arduino Store Launches In The US
        * Gamer Beats Bloodborne In Just Under An Hour
        * Canon’s Compact Camera With Large Sensor Possibly Leaked In Photo
        * BlackBerry Leap Now Available For Pre-Order
        * Tesla To Launch Major New Product That Is Not A Car April 30th
        * Xiaomi Redmi 2A Smartphone Launched In China

        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * Final roster alignment a question of flexibility
        * Noesi recovers from quick stumble; Sox fall
        * Petricka headed to disabled list
        * Rodon's immediate future to be in Minors
        * Podcast: Countdown to Opening Day

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Governor meets with business leaders in O’Fallon..
        * CLC celebrates start of science and engineering.....
        * Illinois joins campaign to reduce childhood obe.....
        * Brady business interests could derail congressi.....
        * Senate Executive Committee discusses budget cuts..


        * Indonesian prosecutors seek up to 18-year term for US couple
        * Ex-Carbondale pastor gets 6 years in prison on theft charges
        * Violence wanes in Chicago, but fear looms over mayor's race
        * Violence wanes in Chicago, but fear looms over mayor's race
        * Bradley University officials report malware computers breach
        * Man killed during chase by DeKalb sheriff's deputies
        * Lincoln funeral car set to appear in Springfield
        * Coroner IDs 6 people killed in fiery Interstate 26 crash
        * BNSF railroad adds new safety rules for crude oil trains
        * Aunt of men accused in terror plot: They're 'not monsters'

        * LIHEAP utility assistance fund for Sangamon County is empty
        * LaHood talks transportation issues as he kicks off congressional campaign
        * Duckworth to challenge Kirk for U.S. Senate seat
        * Rauner to push for federal spy agency relocation
        * Cook County, Chicago officials oppose 'right to work' zones
        * Bill pushes for possible municipal bankruptcies in Illinois
        * Stripped of funding, auto theft task forces shutting down
        * Rauner looks to Kentucky right-to-work zones as labor model
        * Rauner's business prescriptions are popular, but no cure-all
        * Stripped of funding, Illinois auto theft task forces are shutting down

        * AG Madigan: Put brakes on Peoples Gas' pipe program
        * Pay pops for CME's CEO and chairman
        * BNSF railroad adds new safety rules for crude oil trains
        * Cook County, Chicago officials oppose 'right to work' zones
        *


          * Man hurt in shooting in Lake Villa
          * 1 dead, 8 wounded in separate shootings on South, West, Northwest sides
          * Police: Girl, 16, missing from Southwest Side since March 18
          * Alderman declines to step down in wake of arrest report
          * Deputies save 2 lives in 26 hours in Lake Bluff, Antioch
          * Man who wanted prison released from jail
          * Wilco cancels Indianapolis show over Indiana's religious objection law
          * Dems call for repeal of religious objections law
          * Crystal Lake Bank robbed, suspect sought
          * BNSF railroad adds new safety rules for crude oil trains


          * Unions and Garcia push for $15-an-hour minimum wage
          * The Chicago rabbit: The unofficial face of wildlife is right under your nose
          * Obamacare tax rules trip some immigrants
          * Former Rep. Aaron Schock's staff to face tough prosecutor
          * Behind CPS graduation rates, a system of musical chairs
          * Health care tax rules trip up some immigrants
          * More than 21K early votes cast in Chicago runoff election
          * Duckworth makes video announcement for 2016 Senate bid
          * Legal expert says Illinois 'got it right' when it comes to religious freedom law
          * Legal expert says Illinois 'got it right' regarding its religious freedom law


          * Our Opinion: Redpath, Senor, McFarland for Springfield's wards 1, 2 and 4
          * Kathleen Parker: A leap of faith — into thin air
          * LIHEAP utility assistance fund for Sangamon County is empty
          * LaHood talks transportation issues as he kicks off congressional campaign
          * Duckworth to challenge Kirk for U.S. Senate seat
          * Rauner to push for federal spy agency relocation
          * Cook County, Chicago officials oppose 'right to work' zones
          * Our Opinion: Rianne Hawkins for Springfield city clerk; Misty Buscher for city treasurer
          * Bill pushes for possible municipal bankruptcies in Illinois
          * Stripped of funding, auto theft task forces shutting down


          * Police Beat
          * Southern Illinois cities form partnerships with overseas cities
          * Another couple of days of sun
          * Work to begin on 19th Street in Moline
          * Teen drinking down in region, but binging on rise
          * Slow trickle of people draining region
          * Open Line
          * Elderly kidnap victim found nearly 100 miles from home
          * When rights at stake, paranoia can be healthy
          * Hippies were happy, above all


          * Duckworth's Senate bid could mean crowded 8th District race
          * Aunt: Family 'devastated' by arrest of Aurora men charged with conspiring to help ISIS
          * Anti-censorship group: China behind cyberattacks on US sites
          * European clubs win more money, influence in new UEFA deal
          * Eurozone deflation eases as oil prices appear to bottom out

          * US Rep. Randy Hultgren joins bipartisan gr...
          * As Illinois' Common Core Testing Begins, H...
          * Letter: Smarter than fifth-grader? - North...
          * The 17 Republicans who voted against the G...
          * Duckworth announces 2016 Senate bid in video
          * Duckworth’s bid for Kirk’s US Senate seat ...
          * Duckworth's Senate bid could mean crowded ...
          * The Mushroom Cloud and the X-Ray Machine -...
          * Chuck Sweeny: U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger tal...
          * Sweet: A Duckworth vs. Kirk race — an elec...

          * Harry Reid is not looking back...
          * MARCUS: AG nominee deserves a Senate vote ......
          * Tech companies gaming work visa system...

          * With or Without Iran Deal, Obama Faces Fig......
          * Iran deal a big test for Schumer...
          * Duckworth makes announcement for ’16 Senat......
          * Duckworth announces 2016 Senate bid in video...
          * Iran deal could be toothless...

          * The Antlers Of Ireland!
          * The Weekend In Chicago Rock
          * Wounded war vet; or “Rod Blagojevich protégé?” It’s gonna be ever so ugly!
          * EXTRA: And people wonder why I’m skeptical in thinking the Chicago Cubs are going to win anything anytime soon
          * Before Chuy, There Was Miguel
          * Jackson Jr. Reports To Baltimore Halfway House After Leaving Prison
          * After ACLU's 'Stop And Frisk' Report, Chicagoans To Continue Push For CPD Reforms
          * U.S. Senate Passes GOP Budget Blueprint
          * U.S. Reps. Schakowsky, Becerra: GOP 'Manufacturing' Social Security Crisis (VIDEO)
          * Street Sweeping Begins In April, Get Reminders About When Your Street Will Be Cleaned


          * Illinois Mayors to Celebrate National Service - April 7, 2015 Designated as “Mayors Day of Recognition”
          * Governor Rauner Takes Bill Action
          * Governor Announces Appointments B.R. Lane to lead Illinois Lottery; John Holden to continue leading Dept. of Aging
          * USDA Awards Grant to Illinois' JTED-SNAP Employment & Training Grant - Program helps participants find jobs and promotes business growth
          * Nominating Petitions Available For Illinois Commodity Board Seats




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller