SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Sunday afternoon
* *** UPDATED x1 - AFSCME responds *** Rauner: No
* Deal emerges on medical marijuana
* Stop ComEd/Exelon's $7 BILLION Rate Hike!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rep. Phelps counters HGOP robocalls
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Oops!
* "The safety net continues to crumble around us"
* "Picking the pockets of poor people" and stiffing the wrongfully convicted
* Radogno rips into the Democratic leaders
* Cullerton says he offered "practical way forward"
* Republican legislators want Rauner, AFSCME to restart talks
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Two non-scandals and a potentially serious one
* Rauner budget director to brief reporters at noon
* *** UPDATED x3 - Emanuel responds "Rauner Tax" - Rauner issues veto today *** Rauner expected to veto police and fire pension bill on Memorial Day
* "I have zero confidence that Springfield will get its act together"
* *** UPDATED x2 - Rauner audio *** Rauner to comment on collapse of negotiations
* Unclear on the history
* *** UPDATED x2 - Madigan: "No hostage-taking" - Talks collapse as Dems pull the plug *** Madigan likely to speak after leaders meeting
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* ZTE is entering the retail store space with several stores in China
* Sony Xperia X marketed on US YouTube account
* Google Daydream VR issues, Galaxy S7 deals & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Jawbone stops the factories for one last-chance wearable
* Twitter for iOS Gains Support for Peek and Pop 3D Touch Gestures
* Apple’s Trade Up with Installments grows in Europe
* Comixology CEO shows off new Unlimited subscription service

* Melky's slam isn't enough to flatten Royals
* Rodon aims for continued success against Royals
* Royals 7, White Sox 5: A five-pitcher inning
* Melky's slam isn't enough to flatten Royals
* Lawrie isn't dwelling on past incident with KC
* White Sox opener vs. Royals postponed
* Hit in 57 games, win $5.6 million

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois budget chief issues warning - DeKalb D.....
* Rauner reverses course on medical marijuana, ba.....
* House Republicans urge Rauner, AFSCME to return.....
* Rauner agrees to expand medical marijuana progr.....
* Why Rauner should veto all of Madigan's budget .....


* 7-year-old Chicago girl dies in tractor accident
* Illinois budget negotiations appear to be going nowhere
* Drew Peterson's defense rests after calling 3 witnesses
* NBC's 'Red Nose Day Special' raises $30M for kids' charities
* Judge OKs copyright settlement over Vivian Maier photos
* Fatal carjacking suspect killed near St. Louis is identified
* Activist sues over denied deferred deportation renewal
* Runner dies after collapsing during 3.5-mile Chicago race
* Former Pinckneyville bookkeeper sentenced in fraud case
* Man guilty of buying Indiana guns, selling them in Chicago

* Some House Republicans call for Rauner to resume talks with AFSCME
* GOP accuses Dems of pulling plug on negotiations; state budget approval chances seem slim
* Senate sends 2 more school funding revamps to House
* Bill to raise age for buying cigarettes stalls in House
* Rauner vetoes plan to reduce Chicago pension payments
* Senate sends 2 more school-funding revamps to House
* Illinois youth corrections director resigns
* Senate sends 2nd school-funding revamp to House
* Republicans: Democrats have 'pulled the plug' on turnaround agenda talks
* Rauner, Illinois legislative leaders to meet Friday

* Rich Miller on Springfield
* Madigan, Rauner steel themselves for all-out political war
* Rauner vetoes Emanuel's police and fire pension bill
* Peace or war? Dems, Rauner decide this holiday weekend
* Motorola-linked credit union branches out


* Dear Abby: Girl, 18, befriends a 51-year-old man
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for May 28, 2016
* Man critically wounded in Southwest Side shooting
* White Sox blow four-run lead, lose to Royals
* Police: Robbers targeting people near Columbus Park
* Person shot in University Village
* Power outage stalls Navy Pier’s new Ferris wheel on opening day
* The blood, sweat and tears of proving ‘Prowess’ in Chicago
* Cubs’ Maddon goes with gut, rests Rizzo; Cubs beat Phillies 6-2
* Man charged with shooting at home in Woodstock


* Fox Valley mom's battle against synthetic marijuana nears climax
* Memorial Day weekend keeping police watchful
* Dioner Navarro has rare perspective into Chris Sale-Jake Arrieta debate
* Everything you missed from Beyonce's first night at Soldier Field
* Live coverage: Memorial Day weekend in Chicago
* White Sox blow lead, game in 7-5 loss to Royals
* Man shot in University Village neighborhood
* Small WWII-era plane crashes in Hudson River; body recovered
* LeBron James scores 33 as Cavs reach second straight NBA Finals
* Friday's recap: Royals 7, White Sox 5


* Some House Republicans call for Rauner to resume talks with AFSCME
* GOP accuses Dems of pulling plug on negotiations; state budget approval chances seem slim
* Senate sends 2 more school funding revamps to House
* Charles Krauthammer: The arrow of history
* David Orr: Automatic Voter Registration makes government more efficient
* Bill to raise age for buying cigarettes stalls in House
* Rauner vetoes plan to reduce Chicago pension payments
* Illinois youth corrections director resigns
* Senate sends 2nd school-funding revamp to House
* Republicans: Democrats have 'pulled the plug' on turnaround agenda talks


* Cobras baseball starts march to national title
* 'Never a dull moment' with Parkland's Stokowski
* Rough first round leaves golf tied for 15th
* UI golf 'brothers' reach their final ride
* RTHS Graduation 2016
* Vukic reaches NCAA quarterfinals
* Track 2A/3A prelims notebook: Danville relay impresses
* Unity boys' track thinking big
* Primer for Championship Saturday
* Area baseball leaders (Week of May 23)


* Young soccer players converge on Northwest suburbs
* Boys track: DuPage County athletes ready for the next step up
* Girls soccer: Wheaton Academy headed to state title game
* Baseball: Fremd battles past Deerfield in 8 innings
* Girls soccer: Naperville North gets past Metea Valley

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* TSA changes announced to decrease travel t......
* Rep. Tammy Duckworth Working with Senator ......

* Defence sales: US Senate may vote to bring......

* Save The Date: Sheridan Park Neighborhood Yard Sale
* A License to Vote
* Martial arts demonstration 1919
* Illinois House passes budget bill, including school funding with no special education funding cuts. Rauner says he will veto it.
* Union democracy: compare and contrast.
* UPDATE x1: Madigan fails to deliver veto override on AFSCME arbitration bill
* CDC Whistleblower exposes autism-vaccine link coverup in "Vaxxed"
* An Unexpected Surprise: Leland Is Open to Thru Traffic
* Thorner: What if Environmental Laws Make Things Worse?
* Justice Department docs suggest 69 killed involving Operation Fast & Furious weapons


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller