SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Today’s map

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014

* HaystaqDNA plotted tea party favorability by county nationwide. Click the pic for an interactive version…

* Methodology

First,12,636 voters in eight states (Alabama, California, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota) were surveyed. Then those results were combined with 724 other data points like census demographics and turnout history. The surveys were conducted through IVR phone calls earlier this year. The model was built on two-thirds of the survey results. The remaining third was used as a hold-out sample. The model’s predictions were validated by comparing the actual responses against the hold-out sample.

A second validation survey was also conducted on July 8th among 5,829 voters in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Overall favorability in that survey was unchanged from the findings of the original survey.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    An Illinois county map just always reminds me of how many small, low-population counties there are. That can’t be good for effective, efficient delivery of many services.


  2. - Illiana - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    Gallatin County has Tea Party favoribility in the lowest group. Interesting. Unfortunately, the only thing I can really think of in Gallatin County is that I really like the BBQ at a couple of local Shawneetown restaurants I’ve stopped at while driving through. That & a big building out in the country that says “Gallatin County Coon Club”.


  3. - Nearly Normal - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    Not surprised to see the three counties of Livingston, Ford, and Iroquois are favoring the Tea Party. Small towns and villages who have seen what little state money there is melt away during these lean years. Lots of negative feelings in Livingston due to the closing of Dwight’s prison for women and the attempt by Blago to close Pontiac Prison still stings. These are counties with negative population numbers since the 2000 census. Typical Republican voters but I think the primary numbers this year were the worse seen.


  4. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:

    @Word, I have worked in a few of those small-population counties and my daughter lives in one. The basic rule is, “expect nothing and you’ll never be disappointed.” The farmers mow the highway ditches far more often than IDOT or the county, and shuttle their kids to and from school activities often at a long distance to their consolidated school.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    Funny, in late 2012 I went through one of those Tea Party + counties a few times and saw way more Obama yard signs than I ever would have expected.


  6. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    intuitive dissonance–Clark, Crawford, Jasper, maybe Clay? carried Keyes but aren’t pink


  7. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:57 pm:

    So what you’re saying Nearly Normal is that when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government. I believe that is what Tea Partiers call “Common Core logic.”


  8. - Tom B. - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:04 pm:

    So, they took a survey of 8 states and then applied those results to the whole country. I’m a little leery of the accuracy of this.


  9. - Chris - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    “when Big Government cuts off the cheese, the Tea Party pops up to fight Big Government”

    Keep your government hands off my Medicare.

    Why are the national Rs (including TPers) pushing the “Obama cut Medicare–isn’t that awful” unless they really are that cynical?


  10. - Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Reminds me of two signs I saw outside of Centralia. The signs were in the same yard and about 20 feet apart: “Save Murray Center” and “No New Taxes”.


  11. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:27 pm:

    @Tom B.

    It’s a cross validated model, which is pretty typical in a data mining exercise like this. The process is sound, and the results are probably fairly accurate.


  12. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    I notice the Tea Party ratings in the Chicago metro area are relatively high compared to the poor ratings for the TP in the Des Moines region and the downright dismal ones for Minneapolis-St. Paul. Same pattern holds in the rural parts of the state too compared to Minnesota and Iowa. Is Illinois ripe for a conservative shift?


  13. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    @Chris, yes they really are that cynical. And they get away with it because the TPers react before they think, and their reaction process usually precludes their thought process.


  14. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    AC, Gov. Branstad in Iowa recently wrested control of the state GOP apparatus from the Paulites and Tea Partiers. No Ames Straw Poll next year; the national establishment doesn’t want it anymore and Branstad delivered.

    Branstad was elected to his first statewide office when Carter was still president. He’ll cruise to a sixth term as governor in November.


  15. - x ace - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 6:19 pm:

    Keyes 2004 carried : Clark , Clay , Edwards , Effingham , Jasper, Massac , Richland , Wabash , and Wayne
    So if that 2004 vote is Tea Party indicator there is lot of pink missing.
    Old Army Rule : Burn the Haystaq


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Long list of appointments by Gov. Rauner
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** The Democrats' budget time bomb is starting to explode
* State threatens to zap all Chicago GSA school funding
* Another optics problem
* This is why we can't have nice things
* Tiny, secluded county wants no part of ATV plan
* It's just a bill
* Feds drop drug conspiracy charges
* Governing ain't easy
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Anton thinks: Windows Phone is not good for me
        * Microsoft DT-903 review: wireless charging is brighter than ever (Video)
        * HTC fesses up to missing 90-day Lollipop update target for One M8, One M7
        * Level Up! Heroes of Might & Magic III HD, OUYA, and cats
        * Get exclusive discounts on cool new tech from CES 2015, plus 96% off lifetime subscription to OSTraining
        * Cell-enabled Nexus 7 tablets finally get access to Android Lollipop
        * Qantas in-flight lounge goes 3D courtesy of Samsung Gear VR

        * Get a Free Lumia 435 on Purchase of the Lumia 535 in Italy
        * Samsung Galaxy Note Edge To Launch in Malaysia Early Next Month
        * Samsung Galaxy S6 Design Details and Dimensions Leaked
        * LG G3 Gets Android 5.0 Lollipop Update in Europe
        * Carphone Warehouse Starts Taking Pre-orders For Galaxy A3 and A5
        * Diversity in tech takes center stage at 'Superwomen Summit'
        * Snapchat to premiere original series starring Sasha Spielberg

        * Rodon leads White Sox trio on list of Top 100 Prospects
        * Inbox: How will new-look Sox lineup affect Abreu?
        * Keith Law likes the White Sox (more than PECOTA does, anyway)
        * Which prospects will make the Top 100 cut?
        * White Sox embrace their position as favorites
        * White Sox embrace position as contenders
        * What else is returning with Gordon Beckham?

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Teammates, fans remember Hall of Famer Ernie Banks..
        * Underfunded childcare assistance program could .....
        * BC-IL--Illinois News Coverage Advisory 8:30 am, IL..
        * Long list of appointments by Gov. Rauner..
        * Voice of The Southern: Government efficiency an.....
        * Speakers to pay tribute to Banks in memorial se.....


        * Pair sentenced to prison for $665 million financial fraud
        * Gov. Bruce Rauner defends paying staff more than Quinn
        * Illinois threaten to withhold funds if district don't test
        * Cardinal George: Doctors have 'run out of tricks' for him
        * Cullerton: More information needed on high Rauner salaries
        * Pro wrestler cheats at Wing Bowl, hides food in fanny pack
        * Chicago suburb to honor Harold Ramis during Groundhog Days
        * Crundwell court filing says she wants to keep horse trophies
        * SIU student newspaper bids farewell to old printing press
        * AbbVie reports better-than-expected 4Q on Humira sales

        * Bill to ban pure caffeine introduced in General Assembly
        * Rauner defends paying staff more than Quinn did
        * Local lawmakers named to paid committee positions
        * Decision looms on ATV facility in western Illinois park
        * 'Right to Try' bill would give access to experimental drugs
        * Top Rauner staff receiving higher pay than Quinn's
        * Springfield lawmakers want oversight commission to monitor 10th Street rail promises
        * Rauner staff receiving higher pay than Quinn's
        * New DNR director Rosenthal touts experience
        * Rauner wants bureaucratic cuts in education, elsewhere

        * Rauner defends paying staff more than Quinn
        * Are a policy wonk and a former NFL player ready for 2016?
        * McDonald's Super Bowl ad announces free food after CEO change
        * Free food for 'lovin': McDonald's shows off new strategy in Super Bowl ad
        * University of Chicago nurses authorize one-day strike


          * Man found dead after car strikes pole, flips over on Far South Side
          * Roseland man charged with burglary, threatening police officers on West Side
          * 2 businesses robbed on Northwest Side
          * Cardinal George says doctors have 'run out of tricks' for him
          * Man charged in West Pullman fatal shooting
          * OSHA to investigate after worker, 45, dies in construction accident
          * 1 dead, 3 injured in separate South Side attacks
          * Man who taught in Wilmington charged with having sex with student
          * Judge allows videotaped police interview for Highland Park murder trial
          * McHenry man convicted of child sex assault skips sentencing


          * Springfield Attorney Picked To Chair Illinois Gaming Board
          * Up To 8 Inches Of Snow Forecast For Springfield Area
          * Could Rauner's Spending Hold Derail New Train Routes?
          * Listen to State Week - January 30, 2015
          * Rauner Staff Receiving Higher Pay Than Quinn's
          * Rauner Defends Higher Staff Salaries
          * Unmasking Ernie Banks
          * Guzzardi Wants Parents To Be Able To Opt Kids Out Of Testing
          * National Weather Service Latest Snow Projections
          * Rauner Tells U Of I To Cut Bureaucracy


          * In My View: Remembering Mary Lou "Smokey" Schneider
          * Charles Krauthammer: Auschwitz, today
          * Bill to ban pure caffeine introduced in General Assembly
          * Rauner defends paying staff more than Quinn did
          * Local lawmakers named to paid committee positions
          * Decision looms on ATV facility in western Illinois park
          * 'Right to Try' bill would give access to experimental drugs
          * Our Opinion: Residency not the best gauge of loyalty
          * Cary Collins: Other options for fixing Illinois' pension problems
          * E.J. Dionne: For the Patriots, without apology


          * Police Beat
          * Man honored for military career
          * Beard Implement plans open house
          * School praise
          * Leonard scores 36 as Hawks down South Fulton
          * Corporations named on medical marijuana list still in the dark
          * Elsie Van Meter
          * George Hayes
          * Janie Booth
          * Robert Bond


          * N. Illinois looks at cuts, other changes
          * 24-hours of snowfall heading toward southeast Michigan
          * To boost 3rd-grade reading, Michigan may hold back more kids
          * Late hockey player focus of mental health awareness event
          * Court revives lawsuit tied to movie studio investigation

          * Three Family Members Receive Service Medal...
          * Bost, Shimkus take oaths in Benton ceremon...
          * US Congressmen Take Ceremonial Oath in Ben...
          * Congressional swearing-in held at the Bent...
          * Shimkus co-sponsors bill to prevent overre...
          * Shimkus votes to prohibit taxpayer funding...
          * Congressman visits WVC to talk bills, comm...
          * Subcommittee Continues Work Toward Pro-Job...
          * On 42nd Anniversary of Roe v. Wade, Shimku...
          * Shimkus Votes for No Taxpayer Funding for ...

          * Guest lineups for the Sunday news shows...
          * Drive to repeal medical device tax no slam......
          * Fans, former teammates, friends pay respec......

          * Senate panel clears way for tougher Iran s......
          * Obama Has Given Iranians “80 Percent of Wh......
          * Are a policy wonk and a former NFL player ......

          * Mailers From the 21st Ward
          * No Romney for president in ’16; may we dump all the other recycled dreams?
          * What Goes Arauner Comes Arauner
          * New Alderman Roderick Sawyer Flyer
          * Was Abolitionism a Failure?
          * Video Gambling Revenue In Illinois More Than Doubles In 2014
          * Illinois Ranks Poorly On Well-Being Indicators; African-American Jobless Rate
          * Lee Talley: The Illinois Manufacturer’s Association and Bruce Rauner’s Right-to-Work-for-Less Zones.
          * TRS’s Dave Urbanek explains the problem with Rauner’s pension Plan B.
          * Study: Several U.S. Corporations 'Fleecing' Uncle Sam, Spending More On CEOs


          * IDHS reminds eligible workers to take advantage of free tax help and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) - More than 30 sites offer free tax services Statewide
          * IEMA, American Lung Association Launch Health House - Radon Excellence Program in Savoy - Two Champaign builders coordinating with Heyworth radon mitigator in program to reduce radon-related lung cancer risks in new homes
          * One Confirmed Case of Measles in Illinois
          * Governor announces latest round of agency appointments
          * Rauner announces “Turnaround Team” - Stellar team to help turn Illinois around




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller