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Sabato: Rauner now deemed favorite

Thursday, Jul 31, 2014

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Illinois’ governor’s race to “Leans Republican.” From Politico

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) terrible approval rating and the state’s struggling economy threaten his reelection efforts. We are now making venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R) the favorite in Illinois, changing the rating from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    BIAS!

    BIAS I say good sir…

    BIAS!


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    …and a Federal investigation…

    Quinn is down, the “much” could very well be too much, but August and September could be better for Quinn…

    …until October, and Commission hearings and the Us Attorney “thing”…

    Quinn needs hay in the barn, and Union support, and to be the lesser of two evils to Rauner.

    Going to be close.


  3. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    I doubt if it ever was a “toss-up.” Whoever came out of the GOP primary was going to have the edge, just like last time.


  4. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    It’s about time.


  5. - Mouthy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois..


  6. - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    I think this is a very difficult race to predict. PQ has alienated his Union core but they will hold their nose and support him over the alternative. Rauner to my surprise was victorious in the primary - mostly because of his vast personal wealth but his message of change in Springfield also seems to have some traction with independent voters. I wouldn’t have said this a couple of months ago but I do give Rauner a small edge right now.


  7. - Gooner - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    Rauner was always going to be the favorite.

    However, he seems to be doing his best to lose this one.

    As good as he was in the primary, he’s been bad since he got the nod.

    Why did he ever disclose a real tax plan? What was the upside?

    Sure, reporters were going to ask him. But so what? Voters tend not to like reporters anyway.

    So instead of keeping things vague, he discloses a tax plan that seems written for a Quinn ad. The more voters know about it, the more people will vote for Quinn.

    And it was completely unnecessary. Most voters think there is a magical way to balance the budget without raising taxes. Rauner should have let them think that.

    In any case, due to unforced errors by Rauner, I suspect this will tighten up and “Toss up” is where we will be in November.


  8. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Sabato is pretty careful.
    If he says it, then it is pretty much a confirmation.


  9. - walker - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    Seems correct for now.


  10. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Yeah, the union voters will probably pick Quinn, but the support will be lukewarm … may not result in a serious GOTV operation and that is what will determine this race.


  11. - Federalist - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Sabato is correct at this time.

    But this is July and not November.


  12. - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Maybe a good QUOTD would be “Potential Rauner Administration Agency Directors” even if it is WAY too premature. It would still be fun!

    Might make for an interesting Friday, Rich. BTW, McConnaughay for IDOT Secretary!!


  13. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    As the election nears with Quinn numbers looking more and more like Netsch in 1994, when will Durbin wake up and distance himself from Quinn’s train wreck? Downstate Democrats have two Democratic congressmen in competitive races. If this keeps up they’re toast.


  14. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    @Blaire- Good question, in the Thompson/Edgar/Ryan era there was a deep bench of people who would move between agencies or in and out of the private sector into these positions. These days, there is no bench, and a house cleaning of D’s (mainly moving them back into Rutan positions if Quinn loses) will result in a lot of empty chairs to be filled quickly by who knows who. BTW, Karen M. would do a creditable job if asked.


  15. - foster brooks - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    lets see what happens when rauners tax returns surface….lol


  16. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Six Degrees:

    Karen May?? The democrat? For press secretary?


  17. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    It would be a big demotion and he’d never take it, but how about Rahm for short term COS?

    He’d definitely clean house! LOL


  18. - olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    === Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois. ===

    Yes, it used to be that way, but the Republican Party is being taken over by hard right-wing extremists.

    Rauner’s self-confessed “corporate welfare agenda,” insofar as it’s known, is pretty much dictated by the Koch brothers and other out-of-state extremists. If he has any political principles at all, and he’s given no evidence whatsoever that he does, they’re a little to the right of Marie Antoinette.


  19. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    In yesterday’s RSEA speech, Rauner said he had no ambition beyond 8 years as Gov.


  20. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:59 pm:

    YDD - I was referring to State Sen Karen McConnaughay (33rd) who might be on a short list for IDOT Sec with a Rauner win, who I think Blaire was referring to.


  21. - Enviros-Anon - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 5:24 pm:

    Does this make Quinn the official underdog in this election campaign?
    It is really not a bad place to be before Labor Day when the campaign begins and people start to pay attention.


  22. - Yep - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 pm:

    These numbers in July are not a surprise, but they should be causing consternation in Quinn Land. Amazingly, PQ’s downstate general election campaign is even more inept and invisible as it was four years ago. I just don’t see BR getting clobbered in the collars like Brady did so it is imperative that PQ try to narrow the beat down he’s going to get downstate.
    That being said I just don’t see BR pulling this thing out especially since MJM and Durbin seem committed to dragging PQ across the finish line.
    If these numbers keep up in late-September, though, I could see MJM and DD throwing PQ under the bus.


  23. - thomas slick - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 6:30 am:

    Does it really matter anymore? I say write in john D’Amico.


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