* Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Illinois’ governor’s race to “Leans Republican.” From Politico…
In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) terrible approval rating and the state’s struggling economy threaten his reelection efforts. We are now making venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R) the favorite in Illinois, changing the rating from Toss-up to Leans Republican.
I think this is a very difficult race to predict. PQ has alienated his Union core but they will hold their nose and support him over the alternative. Rauner to my surprise was victorious in the primary - mostly because of his vast personal wealth but his message of change in Springfield also seems to have some traction with independent voters. I wouldn’t have said this a couple of months ago but I do give Rauner a small edge right now.
As the election nears with Quinn numbers looking more and more like Netsch in 1994, when will Durbin wake up and distance himself from Quinn’s train wreck? Downstate Democrats have two Democratic congressmen in competitive races. If this keeps up they’re toast.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 12:10 pm:
@Blaire- Good question, in the Thompson/Edgar/Ryan era there was a deep bench of people who would move between agencies or in and out of the private sector into these positions. These days, there is no bench, and a house cleaning of D’s (mainly moving them back into Rutan positions if Quinn loses) will result in a lot of empty chairs to be filled quickly by who knows who. BTW, Karen M. would do a creditable job if asked.
=== Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois. ===
Yes, it used to be that way, but the Republican Party is being taken over by hard right-wing extremists.
Rauner’s self-confessed “corporate welfare agenda,” insofar as it’s known, is pretty much dictated by the Koch brothers and other out-of-state extremists. If he has any political principles at all, and he’s given no evidence whatsoever that he does, they’re a little to the right of Marie Antoinette.
These numbers in July are not a surprise, but they should be causing consternation in Quinn Land. Amazingly, PQ’s downstate general election campaign is even more inept and invisible as it was four years ago. I just don’t see BR getting clobbered in the collars like Brady did so it is imperative that PQ try to narrow the beat down he’s going to get downstate.
That being said I just don’t see BR pulling this thing out especially since MJM and Durbin seem committed to dragging PQ across the finish line.
If these numbers keep up in late-September, though, I could see MJM and DD throwing PQ under the bus.