SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Sabato: Rauner now deemed favorite

Thursday, Jul 31, 2014

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Illinois’ governor’s race to “Leans Republican.” From Politico

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) terrible approval rating and the state’s struggling economy threaten his reelection efforts. We are now making venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R) the favorite in Illinois, changing the rating from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    BIAS!

    BIAS I say good sir…

    BIAS!


  2. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    …and a Federal investigation…

    Quinn is down, the “much” could very well be too much, but August and September could be better for Quinn…

    …until October, and Commission hearings and the Us Attorney “thing”…

    Quinn needs hay in the barn, and Union support, and to be the lesser of two evils to Rauner.

    Going to be close.


  3. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    I doubt if it ever was a “toss-up.” Whoever came out of the GOP primary was going to have the edge, just like last time.


  4. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    It’s about time.


  5. - Mouthy - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois..


  6. - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    I think this is a very difficult race to predict. PQ has alienated his Union core but they will hold their nose and support him over the alternative. Rauner to my surprise was victorious in the primary - mostly because of his vast personal wealth but his message of change in Springfield also seems to have some traction with independent voters. I wouldn’t have said this a couple of months ago but I do give Rauner a small edge right now.


  7. - Gooner - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    Rauner was always going to be the favorite.

    However, he seems to be doing his best to lose this one.

    As good as he was in the primary, he’s been bad since he got the nod.

    Why did he ever disclose a real tax plan? What was the upside?

    Sure, reporters were going to ask him. But so what? Voters tend not to like reporters anyway.

    So instead of keeping things vague, he discloses a tax plan that seems written for a Quinn ad. The more voters know about it, the more people will vote for Quinn.

    And it was completely unnecessary. Most voters think there is a magical way to balance the budget without raising taxes. Rauner should have let them think that.

    In any case, due to unforced errors by Rauner, I suspect this will tighten up and “Toss up” is where we will be in November.


  8. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Sabato is pretty careful.
    If he says it, then it is pretty much a confirmation.


  9. - walker - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    Seems correct for now.


  10. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    - Stones - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Yeah, the union voters will probably pick Quinn, but the support will be lukewarm … may not result in a serious GOTV operation and that is what will determine this race.


  11. - Federalist - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Sabato is correct at this time.

    But this is July and not November.


  12. - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    Maybe a good QUOTD would be “Potential Rauner Administration Agency Directors” even if it is WAY too premature. It would still be fun!

    Might make for an interesting Friday, Rich. BTW, McConnaughay for IDOT Secretary!!


  13. - Louis Howe - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    As the election nears with Quinn numbers looking more and more like Netsch in 1994, when will Durbin wake up and distance himself from Quinn’s train wreck? Downstate Democrats have two Democratic congressmen in competitive races. If this keeps up they’re toast.


  14. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 12:10 pm:

    @Blaire- Good question, in the Thompson/Edgar/Ryan era there was a deep bench of people who would move between agencies or in and out of the private sector into these positions. These days, there is no bench, and a house cleaning of D’s (mainly moving them back into Rutan positions if Quinn loses) will result in a lot of empty chairs to be filled quickly by who knows who. BTW, Karen M. would do a creditable job if asked.


  15. - foster brooks - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    lets see what happens when rauners tax returns surface….lol


  16. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Six Degrees:

    Karen May?? The democrat? For press secretary?


  17. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    - Blaire - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:

    It would be a big demotion and he’d never take it, but how about Rahm for short term COS?

    He’d definitely clean house! LOL


  18. - olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    === Dem House and Senate and GOP Gov = Good for Illinois. ===

    Yes, it used to be that way, but the Republican Party is being taken over by hard right-wing extremists.

    Rauner’s self-confessed “corporate welfare agenda,” insofar as it’s known, is pretty much dictated by the Koch brothers and other out-of-state extremists. If he has any political principles at all, and he’s given no evidence whatsoever that he does, they’re a little to the right of Marie Antoinette.


  19. - RNUG - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    olddog - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    In yesterday’s RSEA speech, Rauner said he had no ambition beyond 8 years as Gov.


  20. - Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 3:59 pm:

    YDD - I was referring to State Sen Karen McConnaughay (33rd) who might be on a short list for IDOT Sec with a Rauner win, who I think Blaire was referring to.


  21. - Enviros-Anon - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 5:24 pm:

    Does this make Quinn the official underdog in this election campaign?
    It is really not a bad place to be before Labor Day when the campaign begins and people start to pay attention.


  22. - Yep - Thursday, Jul 31, 14 @ 11:02 pm:

    These numbers in July are not a surprise, but they should be causing consternation in Quinn Land. Amazingly, PQ’s downstate general election campaign is even more inept and invisible as it was four years ago. I just don’t see BR getting clobbered in the collars like Brady did so it is imperative that PQ try to narrow the beat down he’s going to get downstate.
    That being said I just don’t see BR pulling this thing out especially since MJM and Durbin seem committed to dragging PQ across the finish line.
    If these numbers keep up in late-September, though, I could see MJM and DD throwing PQ under the bus.


  23. - thomas slick - Friday, Aug 1, 14 @ 6:30 am:

    Does it really matter anymore? I say write in john D’Amico.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Dold, Schneider launch new TV ads
* Union PAC returns to airwaves with anti-Rauner ad
* A sure-fire cure for the grumpies
* Dem says Manar reform bill is a "disaster" that would "devastate schools"
* The congressional beat
* *** UPDATED x1 - There is a tie-in *** Ethics, schmethics
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 - 2010 AP "fact check" *** Everything old is new again
* Yesterday's best comment
* *** UPDATED x2 - Rauner response - Quinn response *** The strange case of Barry Saacks
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's cable TV buys
* Rate Pat Quinn's new Latino ad
* *** UPDATED x2 - IDOC responds *** Rauner going all-in on prison-related issues
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: TV ads, cable buy, mailers
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Microsoft Wireless Display Adapter casts media to larger screens
        * Verizon DROID Turbo details get leaked, Moto S cover appears
        * You can have your pie app and eat it too with Pie Control
        * Notion home intelligence system makes home alarms smarter
        * DisplayPort comes to USB Type-C cable, will land on future phones
        * Cortana could be spreading across Europe soon
        * Pixel Battery Saver turns off pixels to save power

        * Moto 360 Bootloader Unlocked
        * Deal Of The Day: 33% Off On The RFID Blocking Alpha Wallet
        * iPhone 6 Plus Bent Using Bare Hands
        * ARM Reveals Cortex M7 Processor
        * Apple’s New “Flexible” iPhone 6 Plus? Check Out This Video.
        * Rubber Gaskets Found Around iPhone 6 And 6 Plus Buttons Protects Against Water
        * Square Building Registers To Support Apple Pay

        * Konerko's final games a time of reflection
        * John Danks can finish seasons again
        * Bassitt twirls gem, blanks Tigers for 7 2/3 in first win
        * Carroll, White Sox out to spoil Tigers' Central plans
        * Bassitt twirls gem, blanks Tigers for 7 2/3 in first win
        * White Sox 2, Tigers 0: Chris Bassitt picks up first win
        * Avisail realizes V-Mart will be highly coveted as free agent


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Nursing home trial focuses on confusing sale..
        * NIU’s Stevens Building renovation, rebuild begins..
        * Equality Illinois PAC endorses Gov. Quinn's re-.....
        * Rauner talks crime, pivots from nursing home trial..
        * Rauner, Vallas trade jabs over bankruptcy case..


        * Vet charged with cruelty after dead animals found
        * Attorney accused of falsifying asylum requests
        * Treasurer hopefuls look to boost office's image
        * State hearing focuses on nuclear, renewable energy
        * Inmate escapes from Vandalia, Illinois prison
        * A look at Democratic treasurer candidate Frerichs
        * Mom's appeal seeks to revive Chicago lawsuit
        * Trial of alleged ringleader of 2 murders begins
        * A look at GOP candidate for treasurer Tom Cross
        * Springfield children's hospital official arrested

        * Chicago mayor wants state to reform drug laws
        * Former state health official charged in scheme
        * Governor candidates differ over ‘common sense’ on guns
        * Quinn, Rauner differ over ‘common sense’ on guns
        * Rauner gets support from black Chicago pastors
        * Don’t bet on gaming expansion — yet
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs
        * Deadline ahead for Illinois marijuana businesses

        * This on-demand dietitian aims to stop your 4 a.m. fridge binge
        * A quick look at the candidates for Illinois Treasurer
        * Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford looms over battle to replace him
        * United Continental settles immigration-bias claim
        * House GOP moves to repeal Quinn's new insurance tax


        * $250K bail for man charged with kidnapping in hostage standoff
        * Judge to hear recording of alleged mastermind of grisly Joliet murders
        * Defendant in Joliet double-murder waives right to jury trial
        * Convicted rapist charged in 2004 murder, rape on South Side
        * Go easier on petty drug offenders
        * Trial begins for latest defendant in Joliet double-murder
        * Trial begins for latest defendant to stand trial in Joliet double-murder
        * Opening statements expected Tuesday for latest defendant to stand trial in Joliet double-murder
        * Harvey to vote on having Cook County sheriff audit its police department
        * 1 killed, 10 wounded in shootings Monday


        * Suburban attorney indicted for falsifying asylum requests
        * Cops: "Smash and grabs" at high-end stores may be linked
        * Two plead guilty to extorting businessmen in bid to collect debts
        * Rauner talks crime, pivots from nursing home trial
        * Chicago church gives flock $500 each to spend for good
        * Texas man guilty of sexually assaulting young relative in Kane County
        * 1 person transferred to burn unit after Elmhurst restaurant fire
        * Former Cicero candidate gets 2-day suspension from job with attorney general
        * Chicago man held on $250K bail after hostage situation in semi-truck
        * Investigators, dogs, search for Chicago man who escaped Vandalia prison


        * Chicago Mayor: Lower Penalties For Drugs
        * After the march, what's next for climate change?
        * Tim Landis: Bike Lanes, Medical Marijuana And Meat
        * Group Wants More Information For Voters When Selecting Judges
        * A Redo On Redistricting
        * Polls Showing Illinois Governor's Race A Draw
        * Cupich to be next Chicago archbishop
        * Listen to State Week - September 19, 2014
        * Chris Mooney: More Evidence-Based Policymaking Needed
        * African Drumming At Southwind Park On Saturday


        * Chicago mayor wants state to reform drug laws
        * Former state health official charged in scheme
        * Governor candidates differ over ‘common sense’ on guns
        * Kathleen Parker: Mark Sanford’s ongoing saga with himself
        * Rauner gets support from black Chicago pastors
        * Don’t bet on gaming expansion — yet
        * Thomas Schneider and Jay Scott: Building strong families to curb child abuse, neglect
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs


        * 'We can do this': Mayor rallies support to keep St. Elizabeth's in Belleville
        * Music festival to support cancer awareness
        * 50 people rally to keep St. Elizabeth's in Belleville
        * Players sought for checker tournament
        * Sha Na Na's 'Bowzer' stumps for Enyart in Belleville
        * 09-23-14 On The Money
        * 09-23-14 Penny for Your Thoughts
        * SportsTalk 9-23-14
        * City Square project nearing construction phase
        * Longtime agency head sets retirement


        * Wheaton teams in a tough spot
        * Charges filed in missing student case
        * Imrem: Good time for Bears to make a point against Packers
        * Bears' defense tough when it matters most
        * Woman crashes car into Elk Grove Village Wendy's

        * Ray Nagin, William Jefferson profiled on M...
        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Ray Nagin, William Jefferson profiled on M...
        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Ask Peter: Obamacare's Broken Promises - I...
        * Hultgren, Roskam to Host Service Academy D...

        * Sen. Durbin Tells High Court Fed Got Swipe......
        * Sen. Durbin Tells High Court Fed Got Swipe......
        * Sen. Durbin Tells High Court Fed Got Swipe......
        * Sen. Durbin Tells High Court Fed Got Swipe......
        * Sen. Durbin Tells High Court Fed Got Swipe......

        * Democrat Giannoulias backs Republican Cros......

        * Blacks, Baseball and the Civil War
        * Karen Lewis, president of the CTU, talks about her possible mayoral bid Monday night on the Southwest Side
        * A Closer Look At The 8th Congressional District Race
        * Karen Lewis, president of the CTU, speaks at a public forum Monday night on the Southwest Side
        * Callis Pushes Back Against Residency Rumors
        * Education Activists Chain Themselves Together At City Hall Protest
        * Coalition To Revitalize Dyett High School Stages Sit-In At City Hall
        * Worker Advocates Fearful Of Rauner's 'Anti-Labor' Agenda
        * Emanuel, National Group Launch Youth Anti-Tobacco Video Contest
        * Rauner 'Mislead Public' On Nursing Home Chain Involvement, Social Agenda


        * The Economic Empowerment Forum Endorses Rauner for Governor
        * State Director on Aging Says September Observances Stress the Importance of Healthy Aging - September is Healthy Aging Month; September 23 is Falls Prevention Day
        * Governor Quinn Breaks Ground on First Veterans Home in Chicago - New Facility Will Care for 200 of the Nation’s Heroes
        * Quinn still refusing to fire 20 political cronies
        * Illinois Chamber of Commerce Endorses Rauner for Governor




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller