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Quinn ain’t alone: Lots of governors in electoral jeopardy

Friday, Aug 8, 2014

* Reid Wilson at the Washington Post

With no big national wave benefiting either party this year, some Democrats and Republicans are finding themselves unexpectedly competitive in territory that’s usually anything but — and at least half a dozen governors in so-called safe states, who tend to expect few bumps on this stretch of the road to re-election, are finding their campaign fortunes oddly uncertain.

Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) faces voters this Saturday in a Democratic primary in which he has outspent his opponent, state Sen. David Ige (D), by a 10-to-1 margin. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R) won with more than 63 percent of the vote in 2010 in his heavily Republican state. But polls show both incumbents trailing.

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) faces a fierce challenge from businessman Tom Foley (R), who is expected to win his primary election next week. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) trails his opponent, venture capitalist Bruce Rauner (R), in an ordinarily blue state. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) faces a close rematch against state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) that has drawn national attention. And Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is running neck and neck with state Sen. Jason Carter (D), in a state where no Democrat has won the governorship since 1998. […]

Quinn, who won office with just 47 percent of the vote in 2010, signed what he said was a temporary income tax hike, then proposed making the increase permanent.

“Quinn has to significantly improve on his own 2010 performance, after raising income taxes, after falling way short on improving the economy and in the midst of a federal investigation into a 2010 anti-violence program and a lawsuit over patronage hiring practices at the Department of Transportation,” said Rich Miller, editor of Capitol Fax, an Illinois political publication.

Subscribers know the rest of my comment, which also included a warning that Quinn can’t ever be counted out.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - Sausage - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania will be lucky to get 40%


  2. - A guy... - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    Interesting that the nationals gave more ink to this race than any of the others. Not surprising they tapped Miller as a source. That’s a paper that does a little more research than just about anyone else.


  3. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    As it stands today, Rauner will win by a margin of 4% to 5%. Quinn barely beat Brady, who was at a very distinct financial advantage and a social conservative. Quinn got votes from people who viewed him as a nice competent guy and probably felt he should be given a chance to clean up the Blago mess. After 4 years, voters may still view Quinn as a nice guy, but they definitely don’t view him, as competent, and may just view him, as little shady.


  4. - North Shore Joe - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:19 am:

    The one difference between 2010 and 2014 is union involvement. National attention. Turnout will be higher than everyone thinks. Rauner knows this which is why he is softening his image, running toward the middle. He’s going into a prevent defense essentially. Trying to avoid a rising tide.

    I still give Rauner the edge, the deck is clearly stacked against Quinn. But I am not counting out the #12 seed.


  5. - ZC - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:34 am:

    Re governor’s races: 1) No gerrymandered states, it makes these races intrinsically more competitive; 2) Some Republican governors got in on a very “red” 2010 wave year and now they’re on defense, kind of like the Senate Democrats elected in 2008; 3) Bad economies can cut against governors of either party. And then it’s a cheat but 4) States are kind of their own balls of wax, their own idiosyncracies - witness Quinn.

    At the national level the playing terrain still favors the Republicans but expect the gubernatorials to be more of a “wash,” with at least one very “blue” and “red” state swapping executive control.


  6. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    It is a stretch to see a national trend out of this, but that won’t prevent some “experts” from finding one and writing about it.


  7. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:54 am:

    Let’s note that all the things that Flip/Mitt Rauner is that NoTaxBill was are items that scare whack jobs/wing nuts away(btw whacks and wing nuts are most likely off year election voters)
    And once the Cayman Cutie arrives to folo Flip around to talk about what everyone REALLY does with the BizWiz posse…..whoa
    Fire, Aim, Ready !


  8. - walker - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 11:03 am:

    CFS back on the rap track today.


  9. - DuPage - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 11:53 am:

    I read that in Kansas they lowered taxes to attract more businesses and jobs to the state. (A Rauner-like plan.) That was supposed to result in more revenue for the state. It did not work out, but it did blow a huge hole in their budget.


  10. - A guy... - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 12:14 pm:

    === CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 10:54 am:====

    Dude,with every post you illustrate what an angry world you live in. Get an ice cream cone or something.


  11. - wordslinger - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    –Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania will be lucky to get 40% –

    Tom Corbett will be lucky if he doesn’t get indicted for obstruction of justice for his handling as AG of the Sandusky investigation. Sandusky claimed two new victims as Corbett’s office slow-walked it in his runup to the governor’s race.


  12. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    There is also another big race in Wisconsin, Gov. Walker vs. Mary Burke. I haven’t really been following this race, but the polls show that they’re basically tied.

    I just perused this race. I think Burke has business experience and she’s hitting Walker on his 250,000 jobs pledge.

    I read that the budget cuts have hurt Wisconsin. Consumer spending there is weaker than the national average.

    http://www.jsonline.com/business/consumer-spending-in-wisconsin-lags-that-of-nation-b99326489z1-270336721.html

    There is some trickle-down failure happening in Wisconsin and in Kansas right now, with the tax cuts and budget cuts.


  13. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Yep–after all of the Rough Times so many Folks have gone through over recent years, not really a Shocker when one thinks about it. There’s a General Uncertainty about if ANYone in or seeking Office really knows what they’re doing sometimes…plus, let’s just say the POTUS’ limited accomplishments after the Rousing Appeal in 2008 of “Yes We Can” left many realizing, just a few short years later, that as we so often know when it comes to actual Governinance, whether in the States, or Federally, that often times it turns out that “No you CAN’T!” seemingly more so will apply…!


  14. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Aug 8, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    Whoops–that was meant to read above, “…to actual Governance…!”


  15. - corbett adventure resort - Tuesday, Aug 19, 14 @ 7:46 am:

    Jaagar Village amazing resort in corbett for adventure Safari Jim
    Corbett National Park is best for Adventure resort


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