Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead
Monday, Aug 11, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Another day, another poll…
According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.
Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.
The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.
From the pollster…
The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.
Hmm.
* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart…
Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.
* Meanwhile…
Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.
Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.
For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.
The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.
- Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:
LOL.
Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/
Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan
Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:
Look at that graph.
This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.
Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.
But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?
If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:
Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.
The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.
That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.
I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?
Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….
- plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:
DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.
A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.
- dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:
Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.
So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:
The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.
Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.
There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.
“Gravis on OH 2012″
I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.
- Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:
For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.
- TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:
Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?
- Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:
This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.
Team Z and company better get to work.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:
To the Post,
I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.
Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.
Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:
All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.
Remember Bush in 1992?
No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?