* Mark Brown is amazed at recent poll results which showed 21 percent of voters think Gov. Pat Quinn is the real reformer in the race, while 46.5 percent believed Bruce Rauner was the real deal…
There’s really no denying the bloom is off the Quinn rose, some of the last petals dropping away with revelations about his administration’s mishandling of an anti-violence program that rushed out millions of dollars in grant commitments before the 2010 elections. A federal grand jury is investigating. We’ll see what happens.
Maybe we didn’t know Quinn as well as we thought we did. Maybe I didn’t know Quinn as well as I thought I did.
However, what I find more startling from the poll results is that voters now believe Rauner is some big reformer.
The Early & Often Poll found that 46.5 percent of Illinois voters consider the wealthy businessman to be a reformer.
Based on what, exactly?
Because he said so in a television commercial? Please tell me people aren’t that gullible.
Most people get most of their information on governor’s races from TV ads, particularly this early in the campaign. It’s pretty much that simple. “Earned media” doesn’t really move the needle unless it’s used in a competent paid media message.
Also, Quinn’s negatives have been awful for years, and Rauner is mainly a blank slate right now - although he did get just a plurality, so most are either not buying his act, think both of them are reformers or don’t know.
I think about the same plurality would choose Rauner over Quinn when asked to compare the two on almost any specific positive attributes right now. Quinn is deeply unpopular. Rauner is not Quinn.
The governor’s job is to make voters believe that Rauner is even worse than Quinn is. And that’s not gonna be easy, considering the governor’s numbers and particularly if his campaign spits out more goofy ads like they did yesterday.
…Adding… From a commenter…
I wonder if [Rauner] is the beneficiary of the “Peter Fitzgerald” effect? Having so much wealth and acting as a self financed candidate makes Rauner appear to be incorruptible. How do you bribe a billionaire politician?
I think that has something to do with it as well.
* Are all Illinois governor’s race polls created equal? Chicago Tonight panel offers analysis