SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Stu Rothenberg moves CD13 race to “Lean Republican”

Friday, Aug 15, 2014

* From the Rothenberg Political Report

While political reporters, analysts and party strategists argue over whether there is or is not a wave approaching, one thing is clear: it’s an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.

Candidates, party committees, and outside groups are polling dozens of House races as they formalize their fall ad strategies. And increasingly the news ranges from good to great for Republicans, and very few competitive races trending toward Democrats. […]

Illinois’s 13th District. Former Madison County Judge Ann Callis started the cycle as one of Democrats’ top recruits. But her challenge to Rep. Rodney Davis (R) just isn’t materializing. The congressman is in a very strong position and Gov. Pat Quinn is proving to be an anvil around the neck of Downstate Democratic candidates. We’re moving the race from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican.

I don’t think he’s far off there. You?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - Stones - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    All politics is local and I don’t pretend to know the lay of the land in S. Illinois. That being said, I agree with the premise that it is an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates this cycle.


  2. - 'Goose - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    I think Davis is sitting pretty here. If the 20 and 30-something waitresses at Saputo’s tell me they’re voting for him, and he’s a great guy, I think he’s got it locked up.


  3. - The Captain - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:52 pm:

    That district leans Republican to begin with. I think the Democrats are going to win it at least once under this map but it’s more likely that it will happen in a presidential year than an off-year and it doesn’t help that she’s on the same ballot downstate with the party’s gubernatorial candidate who has the most trouble in the southern half of the state.


  4. - What's Up Doc - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:02 pm:

    Even many Democratic activists and party regulars in the 13th CD have recently been saying privately that Callis probably won’t win–and not just because of the Governor.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    Perfect.

    The differences between Callis and Enyart are incumbency and Metro East tendencies.

    The Davis Crew are in the driver’s seat, to “Champaign County” Crew’s dismay.


  6. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:04 pm:

    This is the first time Callis has had to run in a competitive race. She is way out of her element, and underwhelming in her performance. Looks like the correct call.


  7. - Johnny Justice - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:13 pm:

    Callis may not win because of factors beyond her control, but to say her performance is underwhelming is way off base. She is a great candidate, smart, articulate & very personable in contrast to the stiff impersonable Davis. It is hard not to like Callis, whereas the opposite is the case with her opponent.


  8. - joan - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    I think you nail it Johnny Justice… everyone thought Rodney would crush his primary and it got way to close for comfort, I think the same is true. You just can’t take Champaign for granted in that district and that’s why I’m going to vote for Callis.


  9. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:21 pm:

    ==That district leans Republican to begin with. ==

    I disagree with that. When it was drawn it appeared a possible Dem district. Without question more competitive than Tim Johnson’s old district. Unfortunately for the Dems, Rodney is extremely popular in some areas where Dems could normally count on ok results, like Christian County.


  10. - Big Debbie - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    Agree that governor is a drag downstate for Callis. But Davis is a horrible rep. who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district. Plus the DCCC has gone in big for Ann and is hiring FOs around the district. That said, I’ll wait until we can get some public polling on the race before I will say anything about anyone’s chances. Interesting that, if Davis is in such a good spot, he hasn’t released any polling.


  11. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:24 pm:

    == stiff impersonable Davis.==

    You’re the first person, no matter party, I’ve heard say that about Rodney…assuming you’ve actually met him and aren’t just blowing smoke.


  12. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:26 pm:

    I used to think this would be a close race, but Davis will win very comfortably.


  13. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:28 pm:

    ==who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district.==

    Odd statement, considering people I know from Champaign to Metro East see him there a lot at luncheons, parades, etc. probably tough to see that with your blue tinted glasses on, though.


  14. - joan - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:28 pm:

    Big Debbie is also spot on and has helped highlight the rampant misogyny of Davis supports. Davis might as well say he supports repealing women’s suffrage.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    ===But Davis is a horrible rep. who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district. ===

    That’s what Erika thought too, lol.


  16. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    == You just can’t take Champaign for granted in that district and that’s why I’m going to vote for Callis.==

    I see Joan is still obsessed with the thought that Champaign County is somehow entitled to the seat.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    ===Big Debbie is also spot on and has helped highlight the rampant misogyny of Davis supports. ===

    Oh - joan -, it has be tough being on the outside, looking in. If Champaign County stomps it’s feet real load, it wi drown out the laughter at the Johnson Crew.


  18. - walker - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 6:20 pm:

    The ground is shaking. Tsunami coming?


  19. - Frustrated Voter - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Callis is attractive in pictures, but has no personality and isn’t good on the stump or in crowds. She’s never had to run a campaign before, and it’s showing. I’m not a big fan of Davis, but for those claiming he’s stiff, impersonable or unlikeable, you couldn’t be more off-base. I don’t agree with many of his votes, but he’s one of the most likeable politicians I’ve met in a while. Truly a nice guy. Calling him misogynistic is foolish too, especially since his chief of staff is a woman.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner announces new appointments
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Unemployment rate falls again, IDES not impressed
* "The Governor’s Axe"
* *** UPDATED x1 - Former aide says report coming *** Quinn shirked final constitutional duty
* Question of the day
* Umm... Huh?
* Unclear on the concept
* Rauner roundup
* Another possible Kirk foe emerges
* *** UPDATED x2 - ACLU responds *** Calm down
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * OnePlus expands reach to Indonesia starting January 27
        * iPhone 6s camera, LG G Flex 2 price, Xperia future comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap
        * Should Microsoft focus on flagships or growth in emerging markets?
        * Tablet lessons Samsung needs to learn this year
        * Samsung developing a wearable sensor to detect strokes
        * Samsung Galaxy Note Edge review rebuttal: Worth the weird
        * Windows Holographic, BlackBerry’s app entitlement, hackers hacking your calls | Pocketnow Weekly 132

        * NFL Video Highlights — and More — Come to YouTube and Google
        * Super Snow Storm Panic: Hoarding food becomes a winter sport
        * Capital Gains: The Biggest Bitcoin Investment Yet, Expedia Buys Travelocity and More
        * Coinbase to Open First U.S. Bitcoin Exchange
        * Re/wind: Microsoft’s Fancy New Holographic Headset Thing, Saving Deleted Photos and More
        * Best Buy Cancelling Some Limited Edition Majora’s Mask 3DS XL Orders
        * Guild Wars 2’s First Expansion Heart Of Thorns Announced

        * Trimmer Garcia ready to take off in 2015
        * SoxFest concludes with high hopes for 2015
        * Williams, White Sox look back on championship run
        * Emptying the SoxFest notebook
        * White Sox honor, remember Mr. Cub at SoxFest
        * Flowers: 'My job to lose' behind plate for White Sox
        * White Sox add baserunning legend Coleman to staff

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois 'fracking' off to slow start amid oil-.....
        * Stateline Waiting on Amtrak..
        * STATEHOUSE REEDER: Quinn's absence spoke volumes..
        * Never a bad time to get involved..
        * Elkville school district ‘comfortable’ for thre.....


        * Medical pot only OK for sick kids failed by other drugs: MDs
        * Family attorney: Cubs great Ernie Banks died of heart attack
        * Obama endorses Emanuel re-election bid in new radio ad
        * Eastern Michigan basketball player and fellow student killed
        * Ex-MLB pitcher Randy Wells opening Illinois sports facility
        * Illinois 'fracking' off to slow start amid oil-price slump
        * Chicago Police find 386 pounds of marijuana in SUV
        * Coal mining simulator coming to Southern Illinois
        * Airlines cancel 85 flights at Chicago's O'Hare amid wet snow
        * Chicago's mayoral candidates address women's issues at forum

        * State lawmakers consider police reform key issue for General Assembly
        * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner
        * Veterans voice opinions about future of Oak Ridge war memorial site
        * 85,000 temporary driver's licenses issued to immigrants
        * Proposed Illinois legislation would ban powdered alcohol
        * Quinn leaves office without writing final statement
        * AG Madigan blocks Lottery termination agreement
        * Number of Illinois households on food stamps still rising
        * Numbers of Illinois households on food stamps still rising
        * U of I president concerned about future of higher ed

        * Obama endorses Emanuel in radio ad
        * 'Mr. Cub' Ernie Banks dies at 83
        * How CME is looking to buy its way into foreign markets
        * Need to furnish your new office? Look no further
        * Hospitals full of empty beds


          * Maze depicting Chicago's lakefront goes for the record
          * 2 critically wounded, 4 others shot in city attacks
          * Person hit by freight train in Glenview
          * Cubs and city of Chicago to host Ernie Banks memorial on Wednesday
          * South suburban women's basketball player killed in Michigan crash
          * Chicago man ordered held on $100,000 bail on theft, deception
          * State prison officials hold hundreds of inmates beyond release dates
          * Police seize over $1 million worth of marijuana
          * Couple struck, killed by SUV outside Wisconsin church
          * Well before pothole season, Chicago lists repaving projects


          * Study projects Illinois deficit growing to $14 billion by 2026
          * Chicago Cubs legend Ernie Banks, 1st black player in team history, dies
          * M.E.R.C.Y. Celebrates 15 Years Amid Financial Challenge
          * Springfield Airport Will Make Another Attempt To Add Gambling
          * Potential Pension Case Holdup
          * Listen to State Week - January 23, 2015
          * Art Beat: Pirates, Local Tunes & Movies Galore
          * Speaker Madigan: How Can Illinois Prevent A Sandy Hook?
          * Frerichs Keeping Rutherford Investigation Under Wraps
          * Collecting On Line Sales Tax & A Springfield Manufacturer Expands On WUIS/SJR Business Report


          * U.S. Dick Durbin and U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock: Online sales tax loophole hurting local businesses
          * Quote of the Day: Monday, Jan. 26, 2015
          * State lawmakers consider police reform key issue for General Assembly
          * Our Opinion: Vision should be a key theme in Springfield mayor's race
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Campaign contribution gets them talking in Ward 7
          * Angie Muhs: SJ-R, WMAY want to involve readers in Springfield primary
          * Andy Shaw: Settle in for a dramatic first act at the Illinois Capitol
          * Quote of the Day: Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015
          * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner
          * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner


          * Area statistics: Wrestling (Jan. 26)
          * WBB preview: Playing with Wolverines
          * White coming through on rebound promise
          * Quincy's historical society holds open house at museum site
          * Don't forget about Illini targets Humphries, Narain
          * Carrollton downs Granite City
          * Bachar reaches 1,000
          * IC men win
          * Local Scoreboard
          * Illinois misses opportunity at Minnesota


          * Images: Miss Universe
          * Wall leads Wizards over Nuggets in OT, 117-115
          * Watt gets 2 turnovers, dances in friendly Pro Bowl
          * Images: SAG Awards
          * James Harden gets 37, Rockets rout spiraling Lakers 99-87

          * Letter: Bipartisanship from Roskam - North...
          * McHenry County's reps react to State of th...
          * Chicago March for Life doubles attendance ...
          * Archbishop Blase Cupich, Congressmen Dan L...
          * Archbishop Cupich joins hundreds at March ...
          * How Congress voted - Northwest Herald
          * Roskams Welcome 114th Congress With Vivid ...
          * Congressman facing heat bested Roskam for ...
          * Letter: Roskam prioritizes Wall Street ove...
          * Representatives Issue Bipartisan Letter Ur...

          * Votes last week in the US House, Senate...
          * U.S. Dick Durbin and U.S. Rep. Aaron Schoc......
          * Republicans scratched “civil rights and hu......

          * White House downplays impact of Netanyahu ......
          * Word on the Street: Lawmakers still see a ......
          * Obama’s state of delusion...

          * La Ciudad Celebrates Five Years With A Party
          * We’ve moved!
          * In The Lyons Of Fire
          * BGA Backs New State Disclosure Effort
          * Budget Crisis Task Force Examines Illinois’ Debt Woes
          * To Cut Costs, Suburbs Eye Police Dept. Merger
          * State’s High Court Hears IG’s Case
          * Can We Trust The Infrastructure Trust?
          * Numbers Are In! Illinois Leads In Most Government Bodies
          * Check Out Chicago’s New Infrastructure Trust Bylaws


          * Rauner announces “Turnaround Team” - Stellar team to help turn Illinois around
          * Commerce Department to Review Proposals for Enterprise Zones - Program Promotes Job Growth in Communities Across the State
          * Governor Rauner signs Executive Order for Minority and Veteran Empowerment
          * Governor Rauner Announces Second Round of Appointments
          * Representative Duckworth, US Army Iraq Veteran Honored With The Abraham Lincoln Veteran Champion Award




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller