SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Stu Rothenberg moves CD13 race to “Lean Republican”

Friday, Aug 15, 2014

* From the Rothenberg Political Report

While political reporters, analysts and party strategists argue over whether there is or is not a wave approaching, one thing is clear: it’s an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.

Candidates, party committees, and outside groups are polling dozens of House races as they formalize their fall ad strategies. And increasingly the news ranges from good to great for Republicans, and very few competitive races trending toward Democrats. […]

Illinois’s 13th District. Former Madison County Judge Ann Callis started the cycle as one of Democrats’ top recruits. But her challenge to Rep. Rodney Davis (R) just isn’t materializing. The congressman is in a very strong position and Gov. Pat Quinn is proving to be an anvil around the neck of Downstate Democratic candidates. We’re moving the race from Toss-Up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican.

I don’t think he’s far off there. You?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - Stones - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    All politics is local and I don’t pretend to know the lay of the land in S. Illinois. That being said, I agree with the premise that it is an extremely difficult landscape for Democratic candidates this cycle.


  2. - 'Goose - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    I think Davis is sitting pretty here. If the 20 and 30-something waitresses at Saputo’s tell me they’re voting for him, and he’s a great guy, I think he’s got it locked up.


  3. - The Captain - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 3:52 pm:

    That district leans Republican to begin with. I think the Democrats are going to win it at least once under this map but it’s more likely that it will happen in a presidential year than an off-year and it doesn’t help that she’s on the same ballot downstate with the party’s gubernatorial candidate who has the most trouble in the southern half of the state.


  4. - What's Up Doc - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:02 pm:

    Even many Democratic activists and party regulars in the 13th CD have recently been saying privately that Callis probably won’t win–and not just because of the Governor.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:03 pm:

    Perfect.

    The differences between Callis and Enyart are incumbency and Metro East tendencies.

    The Davis Crew are in the driver’s seat, to “Champaign County” Crew’s dismay.


  6. - Apocalypse Now - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:04 pm:

    This is the first time Callis has had to run in a competitive race. She is way out of her element, and underwhelming in her performance. Looks like the correct call.


  7. - Johnny Justice - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:13 pm:

    Callis may not win because of factors beyond her control, but to say her performance is underwhelming is way off base. She is a great candidate, smart, articulate & very personable in contrast to the stiff impersonable Davis. It is hard not to like Callis, whereas the opposite is the case with her opponent.


  8. - joan - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    I think you nail it Johnny Justice… everyone thought Rodney would crush his primary and it got way to close for comfort, I think the same is true. You just can’t take Champaign for granted in that district and that’s why I’m going to vote for Callis.


  9. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:21 pm:

    ==That district leans Republican to begin with. ==

    I disagree with that. When it was drawn it appeared a possible Dem district. Without question more competitive than Tim Johnson’s old district. Unfortunately for the Dems, Rodney is extremely popular in some areas where Dems could normally count on ok results, like Christian County.


  10. - Big Debbie - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:22 pm:

    Agree that governor is a drag downstate for Callis. But Davis is a horrible rep. who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district. Plus the DCCC has gone in big for Ann and is hiring FOs around the district. That said, I’ll wait until we can get some public polling on the race before I will say anything about anyone’s chances. Interesting that, if Davis is in such a good spot, he hasn’t released any polling.


  11. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:24 pm:

    == stiff impersonable Davis.==

    You’re the first person, no matter party, I’ve heard say that about Rodney…assuming you’ve actually met him and aren’t just blowing smoke.


  12. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:26 pm:

    I used to think this would be a close race, but Davis will win very comfortably.


  13. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:28 pm:

    ==who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district.==

    Odd statement, considering people I know from Champaign to Metro East see him there a lot at luncheons, parades, etc. probably tough to see that with your blue tinted glasses on, though.


  14. - joan - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:28 pm:

    Big Debbie is also spot on and has helped highlight the rampant misogyny of Davis supports. Davis might as well say he supports repealing women’s suffrage.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    ===But Davis is a horrible rep. who refuses to even attend public appearances (at least outside Taylorville) and is disliked widely across the district. ===

    That’s what Erika thought too, lol.


  16. - Anonymoiis - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    == You just can’t take Champaign for granted in that district and that’s why I’m going to vote for Callis.==

    I see Joan is still obsessed with the thought that Champaign County is somehow entitled to the seat.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    ===Big Debbie is also spot on and has helped highlight the rampant misogyny of Davis supports. ===

    Oh - joan -, it has be tough being on the outside, looking in. If Champaign County stomps it’s feet real load, it wi drown out the laughter at the Johnson Crew.


  18. - walker - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 6:20 pm:

    The ground is shaking. Tsunami coming?


  19. - Frustrated Voter - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Callis is attractive in pictures, but has no personality and isn’t good on the stump or in crowds. She’s never had to run a campaign before, and it’s showing. I’m not a big fan of Davis, but for those claiming he’s stiff, impersonable or unlikeable, you couldn’t be more off-base. I don’t agree with many of his votes, but he’s one of the most likeable politicians I’ve met in a while. Truly a nice guy. Calling him misogynistic is foolish too, especially since his chief of staff is a woman.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Maybe not
* Question of the day
* Stating the obvious
* Oy
* US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD intervention
* Today's quotable
* A $650 Million Day for Exelon
* Potential candidate: Unions "spreading propaganda" about Rauner
* Illinois Mayors Know What's Best For Their Communities
* First Lady's group blasts Gov. Rauner for "devastating policies"
* McCann: I was elected to serve my constituents, not Madigan, Cullerton or Rauner
* Arduin heads for the exit door
* Today's number: 1.1 percent
* Dealing with Pat Quinn's mess
* Today's must-read
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * ‘The Walking Dead’ role-playing game debuts in the Play Store
        * Samsung Galaxy Grand On,  Galaxy Mega On specs leaked
        * Galaxy Note 5 receives the golden treatment from Karalux
        * Join clans and fight the mightly Immortals in Clicker Heroes
        * Turing Phone looks like it’s actually happening, as manufacturer sets date for shipments
        * Tiny Empire is Angry Birds, without the birds and more orcs
        * Samsung Pay now available in the US, but as a beta

        * The ugly truth: Tonight's White Sox throwback uniforms are the best
        * Rest of 2015 vital for Avisail Garcia's case for 2016
        * Red Sox 3, White Sox 0: Chris Sale can't do it himself
        * Sale sets career high with 227th strikeout
        * Cooper hopes stint with Sox never ends
        * Boston, Thompson share special bond
        * Sale's solid outing goes for naught vs. Boston

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * 2 dead in hazardous material incident outside Chicago
        * Fed judge: Verdict in Chicago lawyer's case Monday
        * Fed: Lies Chicago lawyer coached an 'assault' on justice
        * 8 treated for Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans home
        * US judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Jobless rates fall in all Illinois metro areas in July
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past attendance data inflated
        * Suspect in Bloomington stabbings spits on judge at hearing
        * Diocese: Peoria priest removed for prior abuse allegations

        * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
        * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Gov. Rauner approves Springfield railroad oversight commission bill
        * Federal judge blasts Illinois for not making all ordered payments
        * Rauner approves rail commission bill
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Buchen: Past state fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Health Central makes preparations to open Springfield's first medical marijuana dispensary
        * State layoffs could shut down community garden at Illinois State Fairgrounds

        * United to replace Hospira in S&P 500 next week
        * Do patients held for observation skew performance on quality measures?
        * Union wins closely watched labor case over who's the boss
        * Deal to develop parkland near Indiana Dunes riles conservationists
        * Rauner CFO leaves Illinois without state spending plan


          * Principal known as Emanuel critic reprimanded by mayor's school board
          * 2 dead, 1 hurt, 4 officers injured in suburban hazardous materials incident
          * CPS exec says can't offer hunger strikers a Dyett decision yet
          * 2 Ingleside crash victims named, identification of 3rd pending DNA results
          * Gang leader indicted on gun charge a week after arrest in shooting
          * Man who robbed Lakeview bank suspected in earlier heist: FBI
          * Deal to develop parkland near dunes riles conservationists
          * Chicago River still teems with fecal bacteria, tests show
          * Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose accused in lawsuit of rape
          * Second City performances canceled through Sunday after fire destroys offices


          * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
          * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
          * J. Fred Giertz: Illinois government: dysfunction by incompetence or by design?
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Tom Madonia Jr. may run against Rep. Sue Scherer
          * Write to us: Tell us your volunteer story
          * Eugene Robinson: How would market chaos affect the 2016 race?
          * George Will: The havoc that Trump wreaks
          * Gov. Rauner approves Springfield railroad oversight commission bill
          * Federal judge blasts Illinois for not making all ordered payments
          * Illinois State Fair manager: Past fair attendance numbers were inflated


          * Top 10: Tuscola tops the area rankings
          * Trooper to be tried on weapons charges over Steak 'n Shake drive-through incident
          * SportsTalk 08-27-15
          * MJ's take on 2015-16 Illini men's basketball schedule
          * Illinois basketball conference schedules released
          * A closer look at the state possibly being held in contempt
          * PODCAST: Dr. Robert Olshansky on disaster recovery 10 years after Katrina
          * PBL schools on soft lockdown after students hear possible threats
          * 08-27-15 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast @ngpreps
          * Police trying to help man with car discover gun, 30 pounds of marijuana, $21,000


          * Two men found dead at hazardous materials situation near Des Plaines
          * Fan at Phils game hurt soon after Manfred talks about safety
          * Cloak-and-dagger building deal blows up on Naperville
          * Blackhawks, Elgin Country Club unite to help fallen manager's family
          * Lincolnshire-Prairie View Dist. 103 may move 5th graders to Half Day School

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Bustos to back Iranian pact: 'best path fo......

          * US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD int......
          * An unrealistic plan for wastewater overflo......

          * Di Leo: Government's Wasteful Spending, from the Forest to the Trees
          * Senator Duffy endorses McConchie over Sauer to succeed Rep. Ed Sullivan
          * New study reveals that Illinoisans pay a second mortgage in property taxes
          * Multiple sex allegations ... and counting; Josh Duggar turns to Illinois for help
          * Q2, 2015 Top Lobbying Organizations
          * DuPage County Board member Tonia Khouri to challenge Foster for 11th CD seat
          * Televangelists Gonna Televangel
          * The [Thursday] Papers
          * Proft: Illinois By The Numbers: 66
          * Thorner: Illinois Forum prods Illinois Government in New Direction - Part 1


          * Governor Rauner Requests SBA Assistance for Grundy, Iroquois Counties - Declaration would help people and businesses affected by summer storms with low-interest, long-term loans to help with recovery
          * Respiratory Illness at Illinois Veterans’ Home-Quincy
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Thursday, August 27, 2015 until Sunset, Saturday, August 29, 2015.
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Friday, August 28, 2015 until Sunset, Sunday, August 30, 2015.




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller