SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
“1998″

Monday, Aug 18, 2014

* Greg Hinz

Mr. Rauner has put a ton of money into trying to revive the GOP field organization. He isn’t about to talk about things such as his relatively liberal beliefs on social issues or his support for some tax hikes. Too dangerous.

Mr. Quinn is hiring lots of Obama campaign vets and stretching to motivate Chicago voters, especially African-Americans. That’s almost certainly why you’ll see Mr. Obama here sometime in the fall campaigning for Mr. Quinn.

One interesting aspect is voter registration. While I’m sure that adding voters in, say, Lincoln Park would meet with the approval of both the governor and Mayor Rahm Emanuel, that’s not the case on the South Side, where Mr. Emanuel would like to hold down the turnout in February for potential foes such as Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis. Man, I’d just love to be in the room when the mayor and governor talk about registration.

One other thing I’d follow between now and Election Day is whether Team Rauner, which by most polls is 7 or 8 points up, gets overconfident. That would be a big, big mistake in a blue state like Illinois…

After that unexpectedly narrow primary win, I don’t think they’ll get too overconfident.

* In fact, one thing I heard a lot from the Rauner folks last week was “1998.” That’s the year Republican George Ryan faced Democrat Glenn Poshard in the governor’s race.

The final Chicago Tribune poll, taken a month before election day, had Ryan up by 19 very big percentage points - 52-31. Ten polls were taken between late June and October 20th. Ryan’s average lead in those polls was nine points.

Ryan ended up winning by just 3 points.

Gubernatorial races can close mighty fast in this state.

* Related…

* Zorn: Fat cat? Bruce Rauner is more of a clueless magician

* GOP’s Bruce Rauner unveils conservation advisory panel in East Peoria

* ADDED: Marin: Gov woos African-American base

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 8:44 am:

    ===The final Chicago Tribune poll, taken a month before election day, had Ryan up by 19 very big percentage points - 52-31. Ten polls were taken between late June and October 20th. Ryan’s average lead in those polls was nine points.===

    Poshard was a conservative, downstate Dem, while Quinn isn’t any of those things. Quinn’s sweet spot will be a different target that Poshard’s and with Obama’s personal help and Obama’s Crew help should really be a concern.

    This will be won in the precincts. All the Ads, all rhetoric, all the coalitions, but it’s going to come down to execution of finding voters…then voting them. The Unions and Obama Crews are real good. Rauner better leave no votes to chance. None.


  2. - Dirty Red - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    Rauner v Quinn: Where is Poshard?


  3. - Responsa - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    == He isn’t about to talk about things such as his relatively liberal beliefs on social issues or his support for some tax hikes. ==

    I wonder if Mr. Hinz can possibly understand that many Republicans and libertarian types in this state actually want Rauner to be open and forthcoming about his positions on these issues. Citizens who lean right on politics or who sometimes vote with/for Rs, are not all the vacuous, backward, caricatures and stereotypes too many media types try to paint them as. (I do not include you in this criticism, Rich.)


  4. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Can you build a field organization with just money? I’m not so sure. It’s not like the GOP hasn’t had money in past elections.

    In my necks of the woods, they’ve just lacked people willing to work hard at it.

    You need some true believers. If you’re just renting the guys who drop off flyers on the porch, I’m not sure what you’re getting.


  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    ===You need some true believers. If you’re just renting the guys who drop off flyers on the porch, I’m not sure what you’re getting. ===

    I made it a point to talk to about a half dozen or so of those young Rauner folks. They were all true believers.


  6. - Federalist - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:18 am:

    Rauner will carry downstate. And he will carry the collar counties, the question is by how much.

    But the Chicago machine is well organized and they and Quinn know they are in for the fight of their political life in this race. I am confident that the Democratic vote will turnout in big numbers this November.

    If I am wrong, then Quinn loses.


  7. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:25 am:

    Wordslinger:

    As if the patronage workers who used to make up the entire GOP operation under Thompson, Edgar and Ryan weren’t doing it for the money.

    You can make up an entire field operation with paid staff, if you have the money and the time. I say “time” because you can’t do it successfully 30 days out with a bunch of temps from Manpower, Inc.

    Paid staff was the Bob Creamer model and it was very effective.

    To Greg Hinz point: I suspect the Chicago Teachers Union will be registering voters in advance of the fall election. It is the best way for Lewis to build a field operation and flex her muscle without announcing.

    Emanuel shouldn’t be too worked though. He has more than enough time and money to make his case to the voters of Chicago.


  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:31 am:

    YDD, you can’t possibly be comparing the long=term self-interest of a patronage worker whose job depends on a candidate to a mercenary just doing a one-off gig.


  9. - ZC - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if for some of those younger Rauner folks, Rauner’s combined economic conservatism, and general social conservatism - but perceived moderation on some of the most hot-button issues like gay marriage - make him an attractive figure to rally about.

    For the younger more socially moderate Republicans in IL, it’s been a while in the desert, I’m guessing.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    Wordslinger:

    Given a choice between a prison guard whose only reason for knocking on doors one Saturday is fear of losing their job, and a recent college graduate who is knocking on doors and making phone calls six days a week for $3K a month, I will take the latter.

    And in case you didn’t know it, the Quinn campaign is doing the exact same thing. I know, because I got the email. Good for them.


  11. - downstate hack - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    “I made it a point to talk to about a half dozen or so of those young Rauner folks. They were all true believers.”

    I agree Rich. I talked to several at a later event and they really seemed committed and very willing to work hard for Rauner.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Oh, c'mon
* Question of the day
* Chris Crane: New Plan Will Help Ensure Reliable Power
* Teamsters leader: Rauner admin "compromised and gave concessions" for "fair" agreement
* State avoids contempt citation... for now
* Group: Proposed child care rule changes are illegal
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn's office responds *** Art returned after police report filed
* NORML: GA should accept Rauner's AV
* Maybe not
* Message synergy
* AFSCME claims threats, calls Rauner opposition "hysteria"
* Rauner using race as an issue against AFSCME bill
* Running on empty and can't fill the tank
* Attorneys: Providers still not being paid
* Moody's: Illinois ratings will be based on whether state can deal with revenue problems and show it can make required pension payments
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * MIUI 7 now available for non-Xiaomi phones
        * Collect characters and conquer the other side in “Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes”
        * Agent Q Is A Virtual Assistant That’s Focused On Helping You Shop Online
        * Moto X Pure Edition will be available to pre-order tomorrow
        * Verizon rolls out Android 5.1.1 Lollipop-powered LG G Vista
        * Nest’s 3rd Generation Learning Thermostat is here for $249
        * Forget the Z2; possible Samsung Z3 Tizen phone appears to be in the works

        * 2015 DSL White Sox season review
        * White Sox callups likely to be familiar faces
        * Podcast: See you in September
        * Guessing the White Sox' September call-ups
        * White Sox Minor League Update: Aug. 30-Sept. 5
        * White Sox steal finale win from Mariners
        * Ventura keeps disappointment in perspective

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2015
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Custody fight to focus on Illinois mom's role in 2003 deaths
        * 7 dead from Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans' home
        * Judge declines to hold Illinois in contempt on payments
        * Manhunt in northern Illinois prompts school lockdown
        * EXCHANGE: Sycamore family ponders future after loss of barn
        * HUD approves loan guarantee to Rockford for hotel project
        * Marion trailer park pays $75K to settle discrimination probe
        * Drew Peterson due back in court as trial approaches
        * University survey looks at issues for transgendered
        * State, Teamsters agree on new contract

        * United Way advance keeps Helping Hands shelter open as budget impasse continues
        * Judge declines to hold Illinois in contempt on payments
        * State, Teamsters agree on new contract that includes four-year wage freeze
        * State, Teamsters agree on new contract
        * Rauner signs law toughening penalties on drunken drivers
        * Illinois State Museum is latest target in political fight
        * Moody's warns Illinois lawmakers of budget stalemate impact
        * Rauner signs law toughening penalties on drunk drivers
        * Exelon mulls closure of unprofitable Quad Cities nuclear plant
        * Illinois investigates parole board members' bankruptcies

        * McDonald's to roll out all-day breakfast
        * Illinois dodges contempt ruling over payments—for now
        * Here comes another alcohol delivery service
        * Google revamps logo to reflect increasing shift to mobile
        * Delta to pay business fliers if it's later than American, United


          * Police: Man in custody in stabbing death of woman in Lansing
          * Manhunt continues for suspects in slaying of Fox Lake police officer
          * Running car blamed for deaths in Maine Township
          * Piano, Jahn among architects vying for Obama library
          * Federal judge tosses request to find Rauner administration in contempt on payments
          * Chicago sues red light camera firm for $300 million
          * Lindenhurst teen, father mourned; Grayslake schools offer support
          * Body found in river after motorists see man jump off overpass near Hodgkins
          * Country Club Hills suspends firefighter who filed porn, sexual harassment suit
          * Shermer Road closed as garbage truck flips


          * United Way advance keeps Helping Hands shelter open as budget impasse continues
          * Judge declines to hold Illinois in contempt on payments
          * Todd Maisch: National labor board's decision a real jobs killer
          * State, Teamsters agree on new contract that includes four-year wage freeze
          * Rauner signs law toughening penalties on drunken drivers
          * Illinois State Museum is latest target in political fight
          * Moody's warns Illinois lawmakers of budget stalemate impact
          * The Rev. David Hoefler: Springfield diocese not targeting non-Catholics
          * Exelon mulls closure of unprofitable Quad Cities nuclear plant
          * Illinois investigates parole board members' bankruptcies


          * Food for flowers? Free!
          * Homeless man charged in burglaries, thefts
          * 7 dead from Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans' home
          * Officer shooting prompts manhunt in northern Illinois
          * Black Dog: 'Middle of September is realistic'
          * Black Dog Update September 2015
          * 09-01-15 Penny for Your Thoughts
          * Why I play football: Unity's Daniel King
          * Late-summer warmth promotes corn and soybean maturation.
          * Why I play football: Milford/Cissna Park's Jake Montgomery


          * Suburban Rundown: Untold Rauner-Quinn tiff over veterans sketches
          * Fox Valley Folk Music and Storytelling Festival returns to Geneva
          * Broncos again look like class of AFC West
          * Chiefs tight end Kelce out with ankle injury
          * Lake in the Hills kicks off summer festival Friday

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Sen. Durbin, Rep. Schakowsky announce Leve......
          * Durbin, Schakowsky, US Army Corps, MWRD, A......

          * Sen. Kirk calls attention to International......
          * On International Overdose Day, Kirk Urges ......

          * Morning Minute: Access to mortgage lending is improving, NAR survey finds
          * So you think you know how to save energy?
          * IAR countdown to Oct. 3
          * T
          * Correction. IEA supports #FightForDyett.
          * edTPA and TFA are two sides of the same coin.
          * Filmmaker Talks About His Documentary Alleging Child Sexual Abuse At JPUSA: "They're Not Going To Shut Me Up With Money"
          * Confrontation On Sheridan, Officer Injured (Updated 2x)
          * Court Advocate Info & Training On September 30th
          * 9th video reveals insider track on Planned Parenthood baby body parts industry


          * Legionnaires’ Disease Outbreak at Illinois Veterans’ Home-Quincy Update
          * State-Teamsters One Step Closer to Finalizing Agreement
          * Veteran Spouse Ada Ruth Cripps Honored As The IDVA Volunteer of the Year
          * Governor Announces Appointments
          * State to Issue $16 million in Credits to Reverse Penalties for Monthly Electronic Wage Reporting - Rules provide relief for nearly 13,000 employers over the next six months




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller