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Monday, Aug 18, 2014

* Greg Hinz

Mr. Rauner has put a ton of money into trying to revive the GOP field organization. He isn’t about to talk about things such as his relatively liberal beliefs on social issues or his support for some tax hikes. Too dangerous.

Mr. Quinn is hiring lots of Obama campaign vets and stretching to motivate Chicago voters, especially African-Americans. That’s almost certainly why you’ll see Mr. Obama here sometime in the fall campaigning for Mr. Quinn.

One interesting aspect is voter registration. While I’m sure that adding voters in, say, Lincoln Park would meet with the approval of both the governor and Mayor Rahm Emanuel, that’s not the case on the South Side, where Mr. Emanuel would like to hold down the turnout in February for potential foes such as Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis. Man, I’d just love to be in the room when the mayor and governor talk about registration.

One other thing I’d follow between now and Election Day is whether Team Rauner, which by most polls is 7 or 8 points up, gets overconfident. That would be a big, big mistake in a blue state like Illinois…

After that unexpectedly narrow primary win, I don’t think they’ll get too overconfident.

* In fact, one thing I heard a lot from the Rauner folks last week was “1998.” That’s the year Republican George Ryan faced Democrat Glenn Poshard in the governor’s race.

The final Chicago Tribune poll, taken a month before election day, had Ryan up by 19 very big percentage points - 52-31. Ten polls were taken between late June and October 20th. Ryan’s average lead in those polls was nine points.

Ryan ended up winning by just 3 points.

Gubernatorial races can close mighty fast in this state.

* Related…

* Zorn: Fat cat? Bruce Rauner is more of a clueless magician

* GOP’s Bruce Rauner unveils conservation advisory panel in East Peoria

* ADDED: Marin: Gov woos African-American base

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 8:44 am:

    ===The final Chicago Tribune poll, taken a month before election day, had Ryan up by 19 very big percentage points - 52-31. Ten polls were taken between late June and October 20th. Ryan’s average lead in those polls was nine points.===

    Poshard was a conservative, downstate Dem, while Quinn isn’t any of those things. Quinn’s sweet spot will be a different target that Poshard’s and with Obama’s personal help and Obama’s Crew help should really be a concern.

    This will be won in the precincts. All the Ads, all rhetoric, all the coalitions, but it’s going to come down to execution of finding voters…then voting them. The Unions and Obama Crews are real good. Rauner better leave no votes to chance. None.

  2. - Dirty Red - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    Rauner v Quinn: Where is Poshard?

  3. - Responsa - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 9:54 am:

    == He isn’t about to talk about things such as his relatively liberal beliefs on social issues or his support for some tax hikes. ==

    I wonder if Mr. Hinz can possibly understand that many Republicans and libertarian types in this state actually want Rauner to be open and forthcoming about his positions on these issues. Citizens who lean right on politics or who sometimes vote with/for Rs, are not all the vacuous, backward, caricatures and stereotypes too many media types try to paint them as. (I do not include you in this criticism, Rich.)

  4. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Can you build a field organization with just money? I’m not so sure. It’s not like the GOP hasn’t had money in past elections.

    In my necks of the woods, they’ve just lacked people willing to work hard at it.

    You need some true believers. If you’re just renting the guys who drop off flyers on the porch, I’m not sure what you’re getting.

  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    ===You need some true believers. If you’re just renting the guys who drop off flyers on the porch, I’m not sure what you’re getting. ===

    I made it a point to talk to about a half dozen or so of those young Rauner folks. They were all true believers.

  6. - Federalist - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:18 am:

    Rauner will carry downstate. And he will carry the collar counties, the question is by how much.

    But the Chicago machine is well organized and they and Quinn know they are in for the fight of their political life in this race. I am confident that the Democratic vote will turnout in big numbers this November.

    If I am wrong, then Quinn loses.

  7. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:25 am:


    As if the patronage workers who used to make up the entire GOP operation under Thompson, Edgar and Ryan weren’t doing it for the money.

    You can make up an entire field operation with paid staff, if you have the money and the time. I say “time” because you can’t do it successfully 30 days out with a bunch of temps from Manpower, Inc.

    Paid staff was the Bob Creamer model and it was very effective.

    To Greg Hinz point: I suspect the Chicago Teachers Union will be registering voters in advance of the fall election. It is the best way for Lewis to build a field operation and flex her muscle without announcing.

    Emanuel shouldn’t be too worked though. He has more than enough time and money to make his case to the voters of Chicago.

  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 11:31 am:

    YDD, you can’t possibly be comparing the long=term self-interest of a patronage worker whose job depends on a candidate to a mercenary just doing a one-off gig.

  9. - ZC - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if for some of those younger Rauner folks, Rauner’s combined economic conservatism, and general social conservatism - but perceived moderation on some of the most hot-button issues like gay marriage - make him an attractive figure to rally about.

    For the younger more socially moderate Republicans in IL, it’s been a while in the desert, I’m guessing.

  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 2:42 pm:


    Given a choice between a prison guard whose only reason for knocking on doors one Saturday is fear of losing their job, and a recent college graduate who is knocking on doors and making phone calls six days a week for $3K a month, I will take the latter.

    And in case you didn’t know it, the Quinn campaign is doing the exact same thing. I know, because I got the email. Good for them.

  11. - downstate hack - Monday, Aug 18, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    “I made it a point to talk to about a half dozen or so of those young Rauner folks. They were all true believers.”

    I agree Rich. I talked to several at a later event and they really seemed committed and very willing to work hard for Rauner.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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