LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Is it tightening?

Wednesday, Aug 20, 2014

* Democratic pollster Garin Hart Yang Research Group has Bruce Rauner ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn by 44-41. Two percent lean toward each candidate. The firm conducted the poll for Sen. Dick Durbin. These are likely voters, which makes it even more interesting since most of the polls showing a tight race are simply registered voters (where Dems do better). Greg Hinz

But a Garin Hart Yang survey released on May 14 had Mr. Rauner up six points, 46 percent to 40 percent. And another in April had the race 49 percent for Mr. Rauner to 39 percent for Mr. Quinn.

All of those polls were taken before the Quinn campaign and an independent group, Illinois Freedom PAC, began dropping millions in ads that slash Mr. Rauner for not paying enough income taxes, investing overseas and other rich guy sins. But the new survey was taken after those ads hit, specifically last week, on Aug. 12 to 14.

What I find particularly interesting is that Mr. Quinn’s numbers haven’t moved much since spring; he’s still right around 40 percent. But Mr. Rauner’s numbers have dropped — a classic sign of a negative campaign that is making some voters reconsider their position.

But there’s this

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in the state is negative, with 51 percent disapproving of his performance and 47 percent approving. He was up 50 to 49 in the survey as recently as April.

Again, keep in mind that this is a Democratic pollster, but numbers is numbers and candidates like to know exactly where they are. To do otherwise would be foolish.

* Other stuff…

* Tribune poll: Chicago voters split on luring Obama library

* Pat Quinn to team up with Pat Quinn for Ice Bucket Challenge

* Greek parade organizer: Rauner, Quinn lineup left him sleepless: Parade organizer Basilios Dimitrios Mataragas, who is also president of the Federation of Hellenic American Organizations of Illinois, said he didn’t know of an attempt to kick Rauner out… “Four days before, I could not sleep because the pressure I was under for who I put in front and who I put behind,” Mataragas told Early & Often. “I felt, I cannot play anybody’s political campaign. We were not there to promote anybody’s campaign.”

* Korecki: Rauner pushes Uber; but Quinn’s camp uses it more often: For Quinn, the total is about $674. For Rauner, it’s about $581.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    It will be tightening until the scandals make the news.

    I had already predicted that the race would tighten now, and I already expressed concern that Quinn is needing to be ahead at this point, because once the news begins reporting on the Quinn scandals, coupled with the Rauner ad blitzes, he will lose a lot of support before the Election.

    Quinn simply cannot be behind at this point. I don’t care if it is tightening, it will be loosening after October. Quinn has to be ahead right now to suffer the upcoming losses ahead.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points on the Governor, outside and above any margin of error.

    Saying he’s down 3 in a poll taken by a leaning group is only cutting the real difference in half and hoping that saying its true, it becomes true.


  3. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Looks like we should get the butter knife loaded up because Mitt is about to pop out of the toaster. No right wing social issues, total flip on tax hikes, no help from CommandoMakeItUp Kirk, and sleazy biz deals popping up every day are the ingredients for a LOSS.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    This is interesting stuff, and Greg’s whole post is worth a read. The President’s numbers in particular stand out, and it would have been great to see an update on the Durbin race.

    While it is important to pay attention to this one, it is also important to take it with a grain of salt until additional polls roll in. For the time being, I am filing this one next to the poll that showed Rauner up by something like 14 points a couple weeks ago. It just does not “feel” that close at the moment, any more than it felt like a “blowout” a couple of weeks ago.


  5. - MrJM - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:14 pm:

    Pat Quinn to team up with Pat Quinn for Ice Bucket Challenge

    Bruce Rauner then buys the ice bucket and declares, “You know what? I bet Pat Quinn and his Chicago machine political allies don’t even know what an ‘ice bucket’ is… You know what? An ‘ice bucket’ is a bucket fulla ice. You know what? You know what? You know what?”

    – MrJM


  6. - LittleLebowskiUrbanAchiever - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    Oswego, what is that based on? Your opinion?

    Garin Hart is highly respected and documented the movement in the race. You think they are making this up?


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:25 pm:

    - LittleLebowskiUrbanAchiever -

    http://capitolfax.com/2014/08/11/polling-average-rauner-7-8-points-ahead/


  8. - Frenchie Mendoza - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    I suspect — I hope — Karen Lewis will make a difference here. I know she (literally) just filed for Chicago mayor, but I hope her entrance in the overall picture will give Quinn the little bit of mileage he need to go over the top and trounce Rauner.


  9. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Interesting that Durbin didn’t release his own numbers.


  10. - Frenchie Mendoza - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:11 pm:

    BTW — the debate I’d like to see (and hopefully never will) is Karen Lewis versus Bruce Rauner.

    That. Would, Be. Fantastic.


  11. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:34 pm:

    Difference between the last poll and this is within the MOE, so I wouldn’t say there’s much if any actual “movement” statistically unless it’s backed by other polls


  12. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    Adding: this is comparing a poll now to one three months ago. Hardly close enough to legitimize any movement, especially when it’s so small (if even real)


  13. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Anyone would rather be up now, but if I was Quinn I would be pretty happy with this poll. Neither candidate has really started their advertising blitz.

    Generally, Democrats believe that they can make up as much as 5% with ground game. Rauner expects to have a much better field operation, but I have a sense labor is getting pretty fired up about defeating Rauner, so I would give Democrats the advantage.

    And Rauner’s team ought to be pretty worried at the rate that his numbers are falling. It shows that this race isn’t just a referendum on Quinn anymore, voters are starting to view it as a choice, and they aren’t so enamored with Rauner as a choice.

    Not clear where the third party candidates are in this poll, and in a race this tight, that is important.


  14. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Meh, I doubt either one of them runs away with it. Neither has a history of piling up big margins. Rauner’s only history is a narrow GOP primary plurality.

    If both the Libs and Greenies makes the ballot, I bet the winner doesn’t crack 50%.


  15. - Ginhouse Tommy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    It’s going to be interesting to watch this play itself out. If either candidate starts to fall behind, expect panic in the planning sessions. This could get real interesting. As for the three planned debates, since neither man is that thrilling of a speaker, it might turn out to be awkward for the viewers. I would hope for better but plan for the worse.


  16. - votecounter - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    Rauner better find a way to get the GOP conservatives excited or at least interested or he is toast! You can’t win as a Republican replacing the base with indies you need both.


  17. - Ginhouse Tommy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Votecounter Agreed.


  18. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 8:20 pm:

    44-41. Yep. Now that finally does sound like somebody got it just about right where we truly ARE at at the moment in this Race.


  19. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 9:47 pm:

    I don’t remember seeingg the crosstabs on Obama, but if he’s only 49-51 statewide, given how badly we know he’s upside down among Rs it probably means he’s still in pretty good shape among Ds and Is, the ones Governor Quinn will want him to motivate to the polls.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x3 *** Quick stopgap budget roundup
* *** UPDATED x1 - Video *** Comptroller Munger to "reassess" lawmaker pay delay
* Silver: Trump is gonna get trounced in Illinois
* K-12 preliminary analysis
* What's in the BIMP?
* More heroin/Fentanyl deaths than traffic fatalities
* BGA takes a look at an anti-union group
* What's at stake today
* Question of the day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* No red OnePlus 3 for you
* Facebook to Shut Down 'Paper' News Creation and Curation App
* Second HTC Nexus device, “Marlin,” has specs leaked
* Rumors say 64GB iPhone 7 off the table
* Apple may acquire Tidal
* Apple might buy Jay Z’s Tidal music app
* Spotify frames Apple as anti-competitive in app update fracas

* South Side Sox LIVE!: Hello, Matt Davidson ...and good-bye?
* Shuck N thrive: No. 9 hitter lifts White Sox over Twins
* Davidson fractures foot in anticipated return to Majors
* Anderson displays development, all-around game
* White Sox 6, Twins 5: Shuck yeah!
* Shuck N thrive: No. 9 hitter lifts White Sox over Twins
* Could Burdi make big leagues months after Draft?

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana p.....


* Attention turns to court in Illinois remap ballot question
* Judge declares mistrial in murder trial after witness shot
* Illinois jury awards 12-year-old $53M in birth injury case
* Attorneys due in court over Illinois redistricting lawsuit
* Judge hopes to name Van Dyke special prosecutor by August
* Gun shop raffling AR-15 rifle to benefit Orlando victims
* The latest: Illinois lawmakers begin advancing budget deal
* The latest: Illinois House approves 1st parts of budget deal
* Dynegy plans to shutter 1 unit at Baldwin plant by October
* Illinois governor, lawmakers nearing budget deal

* Lawmakers approve stopgap spending deal, Rauner signs it
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana program
* Gov. Rauner attends State Museum reopening ceremony, thanks staff
* Rauner attends State Museum reopening ceremony, thanks staff
* State spending deal OK'd, Rauner signs it
* Illinois House and Senate OK stopgap spending deal
* Recap: Thursday's budget votes at the Illinois Capitol
* Illinois House OKs stopgap spending deal, sends to Senate
* Illinois lawmakers begin voting on stopgap spending deal
* House committee approves some budget bills; members in meetings to hear details

* Emanuel says Chicago schools will open on time this fall
* Why we should be excited about Obama library architects pick
* Illinois bonds gain as state moves to temporarily halt budget impasse
* Indianapolis shows another side with new Cultural Trail
* Steve Yahn, Crain's first editor, dies at 69


* Fire officials: 5 shot — 1 fatally — in Washington Heights
* Scarlett Johansson charms Siskel Film Center crowd at gala
* Evacuations underway as police investigate explosives in Wauconda
* First store opens at Englewood Square, soon home to Whole Foods
* More than 1,000 without power after ComEd vault fire
* Woman shot, seriously wounded in Chatham
* Cubs have been great, though 2005 White Sox were even better
* Brown: Rauner, legislators wise to slow down on the victory laps
* Police: Robbers targeting people inside Loop restaurants
* Collins: Arrieta ‘near top of the list’ to start All-Star game


* Conviction vacated, new trial granted for Adnan Syed of 'Serial'
* Judge blocks Indiana genetic abnormality abortion law
* Syria's refugee children have lost all hope
* Durbin sees 'appearance of impropriety' as Obama associates pursue for-profit university deal
* Young couple convicted in Bali suitcase murder break up
* Kris Bryant's HR vaults Cubs to 2-0 lead in 4th
* Judge still mulling who to appoint to prosecute cop in Laquan McDonald killing
* Vernon Hills man charged with sexually assaulting teen he met on Facebook
* Judge threatens city of Chicago over failure to turn over documents
* Mayor Emanuel says Chicago schools will open on time this fall


* Lawmakers approve stopgap spending deal, Rauner signs it
* Rauner signs bill extending medical marijuana program
* Gov. Rauner attends State Museum reopening ceremony, thanks staff
* Our View: Stopgap was necessary, but not cause for celebration
* Rauner attends State Museum reopening ceremony, thanks staff
* Ann McFeatters: Clinton won't pick risky Warren as running mate
* State spending deal OK'd, Rauner signs it
* Illinois House and Senate OK stopgap spending deal
* Recap: Thursday's budget votes at the Illinois Capitol
* Illinois House OKs stopgap spending deal, sends to Senate


* Could Williams, Leonard find new NBA homes?
* UI hoops recruit glance: Terrence Lewis
* Top college prospects for 2017 NBA Draft
* Fifth Lift for Life slated for Friday night
* NEW: Stopgap spending bill passed, signed
* PODCAST: Sports Talk 06-30-16
* Updated: Hershey rejects kiss from chocolate competitor
* UPDATED: Illinois OKs stopgap spending deal, governor will sign
* Street closures listing
* Meet Peoria Public Schools' new student board members


* Miles: Cubs let game slip away to Mets
* Partial budget passes; schools, social services to be funded
* Wauconda police believe resident has bombs in home
* McHenry gun shop raffling AR-15 rifle to benefit Orlando victims
* Mets rally, hold off Cubs 4-3 to stop skid in NLCS rematch

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin sees 'appearance of impropriety' as......
* Durbin: Obama pal's ties to for-profit uni......
* Obama administration ties to University of......

* Talk of the County - Chicago Tribune...
* Talk of the County: Stricter enforcement n......

* Labor needs to undercut President Obama’s TPP at the Democratic Convention
* Positive Loitering Friday Night, 6pm-7pm
* "Pokiology" Coming To Wilson Avenue
* UPDATE X1: State legislature agrees on stop gap measure to keep schools open, services for vulnerable and seniors available
* UPDATE X2: State legislature agrees on stopgap measure to keep schools open, services for vulnerable and seniors available
* House agrees on stop gap measure to keep schools open, services for vulnerable and seniors available
* Karl on Brexit.
* In 2013 , my brother wrote some more about “our friend,” Lamar.
* Thorner/O'Neil: Brexit's Fine Line Between Committing and Correcting
* Giovanetti: Trade is Good and Normal


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller