SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
JBT maintains strong lead

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.

From Reboot

The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.

“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]

The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.


  2. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:13 am:

    Has JBT even campaigned at all? I’m sure she has done something, but I sure haven’t noticed anything in my area. This is just sad on so many levels for Sheila Simon.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    perhaps they should have had that Will County guy run…


  4. - John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    JBT has a very different meaning among many.

    As in jack-booted thugs.

    Just an FYI.

    Judy has name recognition. That’s about it.

    John


  5. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:20 am:

    It must be all the negative campaigning Judy uses against her opponents. I read all the time how negative campaigning works.

    So, I’m certain it has to be those anti-Simon ads Judy is running, right?

    Topinka shows how incumbents win.


  6. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    I have no doubt that JBT is up huge, but honestly we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/02/two-polls-show-dick-durbin-is-in-trouble-dont-believe-the-hype/

    I know this is blog Rich and not a traditional news outlet, so I get you posting whatever polls come up, but We Ask America is just not worth paying attention to.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    Comptroller Topinka is poised to be re-elected because;

    She has completely out worked and out hustled Sheila.

    She has a Crew that is seasoned and skilled at understanding the politics and Illinois. Sheila’s Crew is out manned and worse, saddled with an inferior candidate than the Topinka Crew.

    She has made the financial goals needed to defend against an aggressive or competent rival. Sheila Simon is neither of those.

    The Crew will take ZERO for granted, give no aid or comfort to a challenger aggressively looking for openings, which Sheila and her Crew are tragically, and comically inept at trying to do with any skill.

    Finally, Comptroller Topinka is likable, her word means something, she sticks with her friends, and understands that working together with Democrats, Unions, Conservatives, Moderates, Veterans, Ethnic Groups and Organizations…getting people to pull one way gets things done…

    …Sheila bailed on the “guy who brought her”…

    That sums that up.

    Arguably the most popular GOP Leader in Illinois, with the most seasoned and well- run governmental and political Crew on the GOP side, and with money in the coffers and the Unions clearing the way for moderates and Dems to flock to her…

    …Twenty points seem about right for today.


  8. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    John,

    I would also submit that Sheila doesn’t instill a lot of love among the Dem faithful and that means she isn’t getting talked up by those folks with their less engaged pals.

    Also the unions supporting Judy don’t help Sheila with what should be her base at all…


  9. - Excessively rabid - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    Voters to Sheila: We know you’re a decent person who has integrity. And we respected your father. But get out of politics.


  10. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    ===has a strong chance of winning===

    Nope. She’s a lock.

    And while a lot does depend on name recognition, JBT has stood out from her peers for openness, honesty, and transparency. She has earned her support, among those who follow the state offices closely.


  11. - Just Observing - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    === we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound. ===

    I believe, if I recall correctly, Rich has demonstrated that We Ask America Polls, at the conclusion of an election, often were more accurate than traditional polling. Rich, perhaps you can weigh-in on this again.


  12. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    I remember the last time Sheila had to run a race on her own (i.e. without being on a ticket). She was defeated soundly by Brad Cole in her quest to become Mayor of Carbondale. Her campaign was all over the place and she was aloof at best. She put a $50 cap on the donations she would accept and then took little-to-no advice from anyone outside of Jackson County. No one - other than Ms. Simon and her team - should be surprised by how all of this has played out.


  13. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    === they aren’t structurally sound===

    That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even.


  14. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    ===That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even===

    Willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, could you state your evidence?


  15. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    - That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even -

    Is WAA not a one-day, automated poll?


  16. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    ==- John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:==

    Wow, what profound insight.


  17. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    John Boch, I’m guessing you see jack-booted thugs under the bed. Sorry being born in America was such a raw deal for you.

    Too bad you “lost” all those guns, like you brag about on your website. Wonder if they ended up in the hands of gangbangers. Somebody would have made money that way.


  18. - Paul Lynde for the Block - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Much better numbers for JBT in suburban Cook than the last poll.


  19. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Whaddaya say

    About the gun guy Boch

    Who can’t keep track

    Of his very own Glock

    Lost Guns Don’t Save Lives


  20. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Lol AA. Comment of the week.


  21. - Gooner - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Excessively Rabid,

    A lot of Dems would not agree.

    They think Simon has literally nothing but a name.

    She dumped Quinn when she thought he looked weak, in an attempt to further her own career. She saw that path blocked, and she wanted some elected office, so she found one where she thought she could win a primary.

    She has never understood that people on both right and left liked her father because of his integrity. They trusted the guy.

    Nobody trusts Simon, and I don’t know anybody who likes her.


  22. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Artie A, you madeth me chuckle.


  23. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I’m surprised JBT is only at 51.4%. Still don’t give Sheila a chance, but the low % for JBT is surprising. it’s not much above 50%.


  24. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Amelia, even if Simon somehow managed to get all the undecideds (incredibly unlikely) JBT would still have a double-digit win. I think most candidates would be pretty happy with that.


  25. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    That eight percent for the Libertarian has to be a little concerning for Rauner.

    Just as many cast a protest vote against Rod and for Whitney in 2006, it looks like Libertarians are prepared to protest a social moderate if they perceive it will not change the outcome.


  26. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    @ Raising Kane, I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?===

    I am surprised that 31% of those polled know Sheila Simon, and are going choose her in a poll…

    - Amalia -, if you go the 2/3 rule on “undecideds”, which is standard to “guess-timate”, giving Sheila 6%, Comptroller Topinka 3%, and even knocking 2% off the Lib. candidate and tossing it to Sheila… Where is it?

    Topinka -54%
    Simon - 39%

    Fifteen point win is a whitewash in this case.

    That’s double-digits, comfortably…

    …and, the bad news for Sheila? The Topinka Crew runs like they are behind double-digits and won’t let up for a second…


  28. - Dixon Cider - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    Shelia and Judy are the two hottest women in Illinois. After the election they should make a calender.


  29. - Vote Quimby! - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    ==Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.==
    Spot on as always, wordslinger….Paul also had a master politician for a spouse.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* GOP defends Rauner on "employer-provided birth control"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Friday morning fundraising report
* It's not anything new, but that doesn't make it Kosher
* Polling averages, models, projections, etc.
* Today's number: $3.5 million
* Rauner makes "Top 10" robocall list
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Cable TV buy report and a spending update
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * “VideoSelfie” Scores $1.2 Million For Its App Offering Real-Time Filters, GIFs And More
        * Court rules cops can demand fingerprints, not passcodes, to unlock smartphones
        * EE upgrades 4G+ LTE-A speed in London, now up to 150Mbps
        * Hot deals on the NYOP Game Design Bundle, wrap headphones, and more at the Pocketnow Deals Store
        * Star Wars Galactic Defense: tower defense with Star Wars twist
        * HTC RE camera hit with some delays as a release date lands
        * Secret of Mana now a 16-bit wonder again in Android

        * After Redbox Instant shutdown, Verizon is shouldering the majority of costs
        * Google Now Can Search Within Any App In Handset
        * TV’s Eyeballs Are Disappearing. Does Netflix Have Them?
        * New York Magazine’s Kevin Roose Heads to Fusion, Too
        * ​This Chart Helps You Choose the Best Sunglasses for Your Face Shape
        * Gigaom Research webinar: Marketing and analytics: Disharmony’s not an option
        * Sprint expands its iPhone 6 rental program to the Galaxy S5 and S5 Sport

        * White Sox offseason plan roundup: Third base
        * Minnie Miñoso belongs in the Hall of Fame
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future
        * Abreu leads White Sox GIBBY hopefuls with five noms
        * Allen, Wills among new faces on Hall's Golden Era ballot
        * The offseason begins with a new Chicago manager and old arguments
        * World Series Game 7: Notes and discussion


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * How to Get a Government Job in Gov. Pat Quinn's.....
        * Cook County clerk: early voting participation high..
        * Tuesday is Election Day..
        * The worst government money can buy?..
        * Inmate freed in landmark Illinois case..
        * Social issues take backseat in governor’s race..
        * Illinois Dems dig deep to keep governor's office..
        * Forget 2014, everyone wants to talk about 2016 .....
        * How an Overlooked Rauner Job Creation Plan Caus.....


        * Sun-Times owner sells suburban papers to Tribune
        * Former Northwestern researcher settles fraud suit
        * Off-duty Chicago police officer beaten, robbed
        * AbbVie hikes forecast, tops Street expectations
        * Illinois Dems dig deep to keep governor's office
        * Illinois schools report has host of new features
        * A look at Ebola guidelines in some states
        * 3 die when train strikes SUV in southern Illinois
        * 3 killed when train strikes SUV
        * Waukegan teachers approve contract ending strike

        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Inmate freed from Jacksonville prison in landmark Illinois case
        * Cross opposes income tax hike extension
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
        * Madigan’s office seeks clarifications from former Topinka nonprofit
        * Cross says no to income tax hike extension, sales tax on services
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take backseat in governor’s race
        * Illinois inmate freed in landmark capital punishment case
        * Rauner says women will decide governor's race
        * Judge denies ex-representative new bribery trial

        * Since Shire deal collapsed, AbbVie's probably done with mega mergers
        * Tribune buys 38 Sun-Times suburban papers
        * Chicago-area manufacturing expands at fastest rate in a year
        * AbbVie beats estimates, raises forecast again
        * Illinois Lottery manager scratches off $20 million investment


        * Garcia: I'm a serious mayoral candidate, not just a protest vote
        * A higher standard of criminal justice
        * Ex-Northwestern doctor to pay $475K to settle fraud claims
        * Sad day  when  Catholic  schools  close
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Durbin, Oberweis square off for final time
        * State’s attorney investigating alderman’s prize offer to voters
        * Face it: Animator has found a great way to pass time on his commute
        * Refund those unfair yellow-light tickets


        * Wind and snow cause cancellations and delays at O'Hare
        * Lawsuit: 3 Des Plaines men fell ill after hunting, eating wild boar
        * Metra reports delays on Union Pacific North Line
        * Three killed after train strikes vehicle in Vandalia
        * Police seek missing man with dementia
        * Off-duty police officer beaten and robbed in the Loop
        * Alleged lieutenant of drug kingpin 'El Chapo' seeks minimum prison term
        * Installation begins on Wallenda's tightrope over Chicago River
        * Teen wounded in Morgan Park shooting, at least 3 others injured across city
        * Waukegan district, teachers come to terms after monthlong strike


        * Ebola Strikes Race For Governor
        * Scary Story: To Have & To Hold By Jessica Hagemann
        * Aldermen skip chance to ask about city’s handling of police commander
        * Aldermen skip chance to ask about city's handling of police commander
        * Ex-felon informs formerly incarcerated of right to vote
        * Recent returnees from West Africa monitored by Chicago health officials
        * 2 dead, including gunman, in high school shooting
        * Scary Story: Planes By Ted Morrissey
        * State releases school test scores, other new data
        * Prisoner Freed After Recanting Testimony "Angry"


        * Esther Cepeda: Elizabeth Pena: Trailblazer on the big screen
        * Andy Shaw: Voter turnout instrumental to reform
        * Ty Fahner: What if the Court rejects pension reform?
        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Quote of the Day: Friday, Oct. 31
        * Inmate freed from Jacksonville prison in landmark Illinois case
        * Cross opposes income tax hike extension
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
        * Illinois inmate freed in landmark capital punishment case
        * Rauner says women will decide governor's race


        * Five things to do this weekend: Run, shop inside and out, drive, change the clocks
        * IYB sneak peek: BK remodel about done
        * Groce's Illini garner votes in preseason poll
        * Shockers ranked 11th in preseason AP poll
        * Central names Sergio McClain coach
        * New Berlin beats Routt
        * Triopia’s season ends
        * Carrollton wins regional in two sets over Greenfield-Northwestern
        * Football playoff previews
        * Journal-Courier Top Five


        * Sold-out Chicago match marks rugby's soaring popularity
        * Lake in the Hills man faces drug charges
        * Tribune confirms suburban acquistion; no changes for now
        * Consumer spending down 0.2 percent in September
        * Mysterious drones spotted over two more French nuclear plants

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Education Dept. cracks down on for-profit ......
        * Education Dept. cracks down on for-profit ......
        * Final Senate Debate...
        * Final Senate Debate...
        * Final Senate Debate...

        * If Republicans Take Senate, Why It Won’t Last...
        * Why a GOP Senate could be short-lived...

        * SportsMonday: Bye-Bye Bears
        * The College Football Report: Huffing Paint And The HAL 9000
        * Stantis: Quarantined
        * Thorner: The Criminalization of Christianity in "the land of the free"
        * Wallenda's grandma not impressed with his death-defying tightrope walk in Chicago
        * Starkehaus: Ebola as a weapon
        * "Liberty for Illinois" PAC Chad Grimm mailers hit downstate homes
        * Chicago influence casts dark shadow over souther Illinois Supreme Court race
        * Chicago influence casts dark shadow over southern Illinois Supreme Court race
        * State's Operating Budget Continues to Supplement Capital Projects Fund


        * Editorial: Governors, raining taxpayer $ on Illinois
        * Governor Quinn and Mayor Emanuel Thank New Safe Passage Workers - Nearly 700 Additional Workers Hired This Year to Serve 133 Schools, 69,000 Students Across the City
        * Editorial: Rauner best choice as governor to begin to reverse Illinois’ fortunes
        * Quinn to celebrate Rauner’s UI Labs accomplishment
        * Another Democrat Runs Away From Pat Quinn




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller