SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
JBT maintains strong lead

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.

From Reboot

The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.

“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]

The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.


  2. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:13 am:

    Has JBT even campaigned at all? I’m sure she has done something, but I sure haven’t noticed anything in my area. This is just sad on so many levels for Sheila Simon.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    perhaps they should have had that Will County guy run…


  4. - John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    JBT has a very different meaning among many.

    As in jack-booted thugs.

    Just an FYI.

    Judy has name recognition. That’s about it.

    John


  5. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:20 am:

    It must be all the negative campaigning Judy uses against her opponents. I read all the time how negative campaigning works.

    So, I’m certain it has to be those anti-Simon ads Judy is running, right?

    Topinka shows how incumbents win.


  6. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    I have no doubt that JBT is up huge, but honestly we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/02/two-polls-show-dick-durbin-is-in-trouble-dont-believe-the-hype/

    I know this is blog Rich and not a traditional news outlet, so I get you posting whatever polls come up, but We Ask America is just not worth paying attention to.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    Comptroller Topinka is poised to be re-elected because;

    She has completely out worked and out hustled Sheila.

    She has a Crew that is seasoned and skilled at understanding the politics and Illinois. Sheila’s Crew is out manned and worse, saddled with an inferior candidate than the Topinka Crew.

    She has made the financial goals needed to defend against an aggressive or competent rival. Sheila Simon is neither of those.

    The Crew will take ZERO for granted, give no aid or comfort to a challenger aggressively looking for openings, which Sheila and her Crew are tragically, and comically inept at trying to do with any skill.

    Finally, Comptroller Topinka is likable, her word means something, she sticks with her friends, and understands that working together with Democrats, Unions, Conservatives, Moderates, Veterans, Ethnic Groups and Organizations…getting people to pull one way gets things done…

    …Sheila bailed on the “guy who brought her”…

    That sums that up.

    Arguably the most popular GOP Leader in Illinois, with the most seasoned and well- run governmental and political Crew on the GOP side, and with money in the coffers and the Unions clearing the way for moderates and Dems to flock to her…

    …Twenty points seem about right for today.


  8. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    John,

    I would also submit that Sheila doesn’t instill a lot of love among the Dem faithful and that means she isn’t getting talked up by those folks with their less engaged pals.

    Also the unions supporting Judy don’t help Sheila with what should be her base at all…


  9. - Excessively rabid - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    Voters to Sheila: We know you’re a decent person who has integrity. And we respected your father. But get out of politics.


  10. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    ===has a strong chance of winning===

    Nope. She’s a lock.

    And while a lot does depend on name recognition, JBT has stood out from her peers for openness, honesty, and transparency. She has earned her support, among those who follow the state offices closely.


  11. - Just Observing - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    === we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound. ===

    I believe, if I recall correctly, Rich has demonstrated that We Ask America Polls, at the conclusion of an election, often were more accurate than traditional polling. Rich, perhaps you can weigh-in on this again.


  12. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    I remember the last time Sheila had to run a race on her own (i.e. without being on a ticket). She was defeated soundly by Brad Cole in her quest to become Mayor of Carbondale. Her campaign was all over the place and she was aloof at best. She put a $50 cap on the donations she would accept and then took little-to-no advice from anyone outside of Jackson County. No one - other than Ms. Simon and her team - should be surprised by how all of this has played out.


  13. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    === they aren’t structurally sound===

    That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even.


  14. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    ===That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even===

    Willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, could you state your evidence?


  15. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    - That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even -

    Is WAA not a one-day, automated poll?


  16. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    ==- John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:==

    Wow, what profound insight.


  17. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    John Boch, I’m guessing you see jack-booted thugs under the bed. Sorry being born in America was such a raw deal for you.

    Too bad you “lost” all those guns, like you brag about on your website. Wonder if they ended up in the hands of gangbangers. Somebody would have made money that way.


  18. - Paul Lynde for the Block - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Much better numbers for JBT in suburban Cook than the last poll.


  19. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Whaddaya say

    About the gun guy Boch

    Who can’t keep track

    Of his very own Glock

    Lost Guns Don’t Save Lives


  20. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Lol AA. Comment of the week.


  21. - Gooner - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Excessively Rabid,

    A lot of Dems would not agree.

    They think Simon has literally nothing but a name.

    She dumped Quinn when she thought he looked weak, in an attempt to further her own career. She saw that path blocked, and she wanted some elected office, so she found one where she thought she could win a primary.

    She has never understood that people on both right and left liked her father because of his integrity. They trusted the guy.

    Nobody trusts Simon, and I don’t know anybody who likes her.


  22. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Artie A, you madeth me chuckle.


  23. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I’m surprised JBT is only at 51.4%. Still don’t give Sheila a chance, but the low % for JBT is surprising. it’s not much above 50%.


  24. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Amelia, even if Simon somehow managed to get all the undecideds (incredibly unlikely) JBT would still have a double-digit win. I think most candidates would be pretty happy with that.


  25. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    That eight percent for the Libertarian has to be a little concerning for Rauner.

    Just as many cast a protest vote against Rod and for Whitney in 2006, it looks like Libertarians are prepared to protest a social moderate if they perceive it will not change the outcome.


  26. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    @ Raising Kane, I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?===

    I am surprised that 31% of those polled know Sheila Simon, and are going choose her in a poll…

    - Amalia -, if you go the 2/3 rule on “undecideds”, which is standard to “guess-timate”, giving Sheila 6%, Comptroller Topinka 3%, and even knocking 2% off the Lib. candidate and tossing it to Sheila… Where is it?

    Topinka -54%
    Simon - 39%

    Fifteen point win is a whitewash in this case.

    That’s double-digits, comfortably…

    …and, the bad news for Sheila? The Topinka Crew runs like they are behind double-digits and won’t let up for a second…


  28. - Dixon Cider - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    Shelia and Judy are the two hottest women in Illinois. After the election they should make a calender.


  29. - Vote Quimby! - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    ==Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.==
    Spot on as always, wordslinger….Paul also had a master politician for a spouse.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner oppo watch
* Zorn nails it again
* *** UPDATED x1 *** If at first you don't succeed...
* Lower ratings for ABC 7 debate
* Question of the day
* Bloomberg to spend $1.9 million on Dold
* Stand down... mostly
* BLS: A strong couple of months
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraising reports by targeted legislative districts
* Rate Sheila Simon's new TV ad
* Poe set to begin transplant process, faces "extended" recovery
* Rauner runs new TV ad touting newspaper endorsements
* *** UPDATED x2 - "Comical" - "No interest" *** Despite shout-outs, Neely says she and Rauner haven't talked
* Grimm on 150 - Minimum wage battles in other states - The return of "Matt the Welder" - Rauner on "right to work"
* A bevy of new congressional TV ads
* Quinn tax hike dodge count: 4
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, cable TV buys, ads
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Today's number: 165
* A grand good morning to you all!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Flock messaging: communicate and colllaborate for work purposes
        * Staples Begins Accepting iPad Air 2, iPad Mini 3 Pre-Orders
        * Notif Widget lets you access notifications from any screen or app
        * Apple’s A8X in the iPad Air 2 looks like it’s a triple-core chip
        * Android steps up its file-transfer game with improved Lollipop Beam
        * Onyx E Ink smartwatch aims for battery life
        * Samsung Galaxy Note Edge gets a release date (but you probably still can’t buy it)

        * “Nestify” has become a word to rival “Uberization” for the internet of things industry
        * Hand Clamp Potato Chip Thing Is the Worst Way to Eat Snack Food
        * Eat and Drink for Free All Day by Pretending It’s Your Birthday
        * Toshiba Satellite Radius 11 Convertible is a Cheap 2-in-1 Device With a 360 Degree Hinge
        * No more remnant inventory: how brands have to change their marketing in an IoT world
        * 10 WordPress Themes for Your Online Store
        * You Can Book Hotel Rooms Through the Yelp App and Site with Hipmunk

        * The e-gus off-season plan
        * Reading Room: A wild card of a World Series
        * Following same path as '59 White Sox, KC eyes title
        * larry's Offseason Plan
        * Abreu wins Sporting News' AL Rookie of the Year honors
        * Jose Abreau wins the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year
        * Jose Abreu wins the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Haine calls on Gov. Quinn to deny clemency to c.....
        * Pat Quinn - The Bugle..
        * Bill Clinton stumps for Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn.....
        * Former President Clinton stumps for Quinn, Durb.....
        * Massachusetts fire that killed 2 boys was accident..
        * Major League Baseball announces ceremonial and .....


        * Expert: PTSD could be factor in activist's past
        * Former President Clinton stumps for Quinn, Durbin
        * Cadaver dog searches in suspected serial killings
        * Ballot error stops early voting in Rockford again
        * Ebola causing spike in demand for hospital gear
        * State: Jimmy John's founder owes taxes on planes
        * Former President Clinton stumps for Quinn, Durbin
        * VP Joe Biden to campaign for Schneider in Illinois
        * Springfield VA clinic grapples with short staffing
        * Illinois' top educator: Funding problems to remain

        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes
        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * What to watch for in third governor debate tonight
        * U of I sees turning point as election nears
        * Chicago Sun-Times endorses Rauner for governor
        * Sun-Times, Belleville, Champaign, Peoria newspapers endorse Rauner for governor
        * Bill Clinton to address workers at pro-Quinn rally
        * Body camera use concerns Illinois police officers

        * What's next for Tribune, Sun-Times in burb paper deal
        * Chicago heating bills will be significantly lower (if winter cooperates)
        * Chicago heating bills will be far lower (if winter cooperates)
        * Walgreen seeks to seal parts of former CFO's lawsuit
        * O'Hare now a hub for screening travelers from Ebola hot spots


        * Father Bob Botthof, teacher who became priest after losing wife, dies at 85
        * Dr. Lawrence Solomon: Renowned dermatologist, book collector loved a mystery
        * Emanuel’s cable tax hike to cost average consumer $28.80 a year
        * Fix pot law conflicts so industry can grow
        * Chicago Public Schools to sell headquarters for $28 million
        * Cardinal George’s advice to Archbishop Cupich: ‘Spend a lot of time listening’
        * Convicted sex offender in custody after 7 bodies found in NW Indiana
        * Fioretti tries to put heat on Emanuel over short yellow lights
        * Neely’s pre-election resignation deja vu of how she got her start
        * Scholar’s take on bishops’ synod: ‘Amazing days if you’re a Catholic’


        * DCFS investigates drowning death of infant in Cicero
        * 2 women found dead after Northwest Side fire identified
        * Woman injured in West Rogers Park fire
        * Oberweis struggles to raise funds, records show
        * City Council watchdog sues Emanuel, aldermen over lack of funding
        * Woman, 92, acquitted of assault of off-duty cop
        * City clerk targets vehicle sticker scofflaws
        * Historian unearths IDs of thousands buried in Dunning mass grave
        * Chief Keef reportedly dropped from record label
        * Cops: Boy, 17, fatally shot by officer after refusing to drop knife


        * Civic Fed: Lawmakers Once Again Taking Illinois Down Bad Budget Path
        * Jacksonville Feels The Cut From State Government
        * Cheddar's Leaves Springfield WUIS-SJR Business Report
        * Area Cub Scouts Burned In Explosion
        * Notes On The Final Governor Debate
        * Task Force Hopes To Help Turn Students Into Good Citizens
        * Digging up the history of a Civil War camp on Chicago's South Side
        * Indiana suspect hints at more killings
        * Illinois' Medical Marijuana Program At Odds With Federal Policy
        * UIS Poverty Series Continues With "American Winter" Screening


        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Joanna McQuillan Weeks: Cheese balls deserve more respect
        * Our Opinion: White, Madigan for another term
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes
        * Our Opinion: Say yes to Magro’s project
        * John Schick: Letter confirmed aggression toward bicyclists
        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * U of I sees turning point as election nears
        * Our Opinion: Re-elect Durbin for another term in U.S. Senate


        * Literary festival set for Wednesday
        * Bix fans push for jazz legend's personal postage stamp
        * Haine calls on Gov. Quinn to deny clemency to convicted murderer
        * Police, school district conduct routine sweep at Central
        * 4-year-old seriously injured in crash
        * 'Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde' features chills, thrills, evil and good
        * Deputies: Robber hits Belleville MotoMart
        * Timothy Kuhner 10-21-14
        * Bonnie man sentenced to 40 years
        * East St. Louis man dies after beating, robbery


        * Des Plaines man gets probation for 2005 battery
        * Obama pitches for votes on black radio
        * 14th candidates spar on keeping companies in America
        * Poll: Most expect GOP victory in November
        * Beer-seeking Wheeling burglar gets four years

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * GAO Reoprt: USDA Efforts to Protect Consum......
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin...
        * Rockford voting resumes after second ballo......
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin...
        * Rockford voting resumes after second ballo......

        * Obama Might Try To Circumvent Congress On ......

        * New Bost ad hits Illinois 12th Congressional District [video]
        * Batinick says Dunn's desperate campaign charges are "ridiculous"
        * Topinka says reducing income tax would cause a heart attack to the state
        * Early Voting Halted in Winnebago County, Illinois Due to Ballot Mistake
        * Illinois Supreme Court Candidate Exposes Members of Shadowy Political Group
        * Illinois Supreme Court Candidate Under Attack by Shadowy Political Group
        * Bustos and Illinois Dems attempt to paint Schilling as "pro-rape"
        * National College Republicans: CCSI Illinois [video]
        * Kirk says he will not support Iran deal if Obama circumvents Congress
        * Liberty Principles PAC launches ad for Ramiro Juárez


        * New TV Ad: Endorsed
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Positive Economic News - Illinois Led the Midwest in Job Creation in September and Had Second Best Growth in Nation; Unemployment Rate Has Dropped More Than Any Other State in the Last Year
        * Rauner Campaign Statement on Final Debate
        * What They’re Saying About Pat Quinn
        * What They’re Saying About Bruce Rauner




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller