SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
JBT maintains strong lead

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.

From Reboot

The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.

“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]

The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


29 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.


  2. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:13 am:

    Has JBT even campaigned at all? I’m sure she has done something, but I sure haven’t noticed anything in my area. This is just sad on so many levels for Sheila Simon.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    perhaps they should have had that Will County guy run…


  4. - John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    JBT has a very different meaning among many.

    As in jack-booted thugs.

    Just an FYI.

    Judy has name recognition. That’s about it.

    John


  5. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:20 am:

    It must be all the negative campaigning Judy uses against her opponents. I read all the time how negative campaigning works.

    So, I’m certain it has to be those anti-Simon ads Judy is running, right?

    Topinka shows how incumbents win.


  6. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    I have no doubt that JBT is up huge, but honestly we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/02/two-polls-show-dick-durbin-is-in-trouble-dont-believe-the-hype/

    I know this is blog Rich and not a traditional news outlet, so I get you posting whatever polls come up, but We Ask America is just not worth paying attention to.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    Comptroller Topinka is poised to be re-elected because;

    She has completely out worked and out hustled Sheila.

    She has a Crew that is seasoned and skilled at understanding the politics and Illinois. Sheila’s Crew is out manned and worse, saddled with an inferior candidate than the Topinka Crew.

    She has made the financial goals needed to defend against an aggressive or competent rival. Sheila Simon is neither of those.

    The Crew will take ZERO for granted, give no aid or comfort to a challenger aggressively looking for openings, which Sheila and her Crew are tragically, and comically inept at trying to do with any skill.

    Finally, Comptroller Topinka is likable, her word means something, she sticks with her friends, and understands that working together with Democrats, Unions, Conservatives, Moderates, Veterans, Ethnic Groups and Organizations…getting people to pull one way gets things done…

    …Sheila bailed on the “guy who brought her”…

    That sums that up.

    Arguably the most popular GOP Leader in Illinois, with the most seasoned and well- run governmental and political Crew on the GOP side, and with money in the coffers and the Unions clearing the way for moderates and Dems to flock to her…

    …Twenty points seem about right for today.


  8. - OneMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    John,

    I would also submit that Sheila doesn’t instill a lot of love among the Dem faithful and that means she isn’t getting talked up by those folks with their less engaged pals.

    Also the unions supporting Judy don’t help Sheila with what should be her base at all…


  9. - Excessively rabid - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    Voters to Sheila: We know you’re a decent person who has integrity. And we respected your father. But get out of politics.


  10. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    ===has a strong chance of winning===

    Nope. She’s a lock.

    And while a lot does depend on name recognition, JBT has stood out from her peers for openness, honesty, and transparency. She has earned her support, among those who follow the state offices closely.


  11. - Just Observing - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    === we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound. ===

    I believe, if I recall correctly, Rich has demonstrated that We Ask America Polls, at the conclusion of an election, often were more accurate than traditional polling. Rich, perhaps you can weigh-in on this again.


  12. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    I remember the last time Sheila had to run a race on her own (i.e. without being on a ticket). She was defeated soundly by Brad Cole in her quest to become Mayor of Carbondale. Her campaign was all over the place and she was aloof at best. She put a $50 cap on the donations she would accept and then took little-to-no advice from anyone outside of Jackson County. No one - other than Ms. Simon and her team - should be surprised by how all of this has played out.


  13. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    === they aren’t structurally sound===

    That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even.


  14. - Anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    ===That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even===

    Willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, could you state your evidence?


  15. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    - That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even -

    Is WAA not a one-day, automated poll?


  16. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    ==- John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:==

    Wow, what profound insight.


  17. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    John Boch, I’m guessing you see jack-booted thugs under the bed. Sorry being born in America was such a raw deal for you.

    Too bad you “lost” all those guns, like you brag about on your website. Wonder if they ended up in the hands of gangbangers. Somebody would have made money that way.


  18. - Paul Lynde for the Block - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Much better numbers for JBT in suburban Cook than the last poll.


  19. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Whaddaya say

    About the gun guy Boch

    Who can’t keep track

    Of his very own Glock

    Lost Guns Don’t Save Lives


  20. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    Lol AA. Comment of the week.


  21. - Gooner - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Excessively Rabid,

    A lot of Dems would not agree.

    They think Simon has literally nothing but a name.

    She dumped Quinn when she thought he looked weak, in an attempt to further her own career. She saw that path blocked, and she wanted some elected office, so she found one where she thought she could win a primary.

    She has never understood that people on both right and left liked her father because of his integrity. They trusted the guy.

    Nobody trusts Simon, and I don’t know anybody who likes her.


  22. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Artie A, you madeth me chuckle.


  23. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:26 am:

    I’m surprised JBT is only at 51.4%. Still don’t give Sheila a chance, but the low % for JBT is surprising. it’s not much above 50%.


  24. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Amelia, even if Simon somehow managed to get all the undecideds (incredibly unlikely) JBT would still have a double-digit win. I think most candidates would be pretty happy with that.


  25. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    That eight percent for the Libertarian has to be a little concerning for Rauner.

    Just as many cast a protest vote against Rod and for Whitney in 2006, it looks like Libertarians are prepared to protest a social moderate if they perceive it will not change the outcome.


  26. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:11 pm:

    @ Raising Kane, I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?===

    I am surprised that 31% of those polled know Sheila Simon, and are going choose her in a poll…

    - Amalia -, if you go the 2/3 rule on “undecideds”, which is standard to “guess-timate”, giving Sheila 6%, Comptroller Topinka 3%, and even knocking 2% off the Lib. candidate and tossing it to Sheila… Where is it?

    Topinka -54%
    Simon - 39%

    Fifteen point win is a whitewash in this case.

    That’s double-digits, comfortably…

    …and, the bad news for Sheila? The Topinka Crew runs like they are behind double-digits and won’t let up for a second…


  28. - Dixon Cider - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    Shelia and Judy are the two hottest women in Illinois. After the election they should make a calender.


  29. - Vote Quimby! - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    ==Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.==
    Spot on as always, wordslinger….Paul also had a master politician for a spouse.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Another Quinn punt results in lawsuit
* Question of the day
* Truax forms PAC as Kirk shifts left
* Report: Illinois has five donors in nation's top 50
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* New York's problem is likely prohibited here
* Everything old is new again
* Rauner continues hammering away at state worker pay, benefits
* Why We Need A Strong Civil Justice System - Molly’s Story: Doctors Unnecessarily Removed Her Breast
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Meizu unveils Meilan m1, new m1 Note variant, LifeKit platform
        * Apple Watch date, HTC One M9 leaked, Moto deals & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * JotterPad 11 is a writer’s delight, save work in multiple formats
        * How Facebook is using autoplaying videos and ad tech to make billions
        * Device automation made easy with Droid Automation, MacroDroid
        * Will HTC release a Firefox OS smartphone?
        * Enter to win a pair of Studio Beats and a OnePlus One Android handset

        * Did Apple Sell More Smartphones Than Samsung In Q4 2014?
        * WorkMail, Amazon’s New Email Service
        * Safeti Personal Safety Device
        * Windows Phone To Get FLAC Support, Too
        * Bing Venue Maps Lets You Navigate Through Stadiums
        * Chess Computer Program Weighs In At Just 487 Bytes
        * Huawei Mate7 Compact Images Leaked Out Again

        * The unlikely return of Gordon Beckham's unfortunate offseason tradi...
        * Viciedo designated for assignment to open roster spot
        * White Sox reunite with Beckham on one-year deal
        * White Sox reunite with Beckham on one-year deal
        * White Sox sign Gordon Beckham; designate Dayan Viciedo for assignment
        * White Sox reunite with Beckham on one-year deal
        * Prospect Watch: Top 10 shortstops

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * BC-IL--Illinois News Coverage Advisory 8:30 am, IL..
        * McMillan excited to work with Killeen, Gov. Rauner..
        * Illinois’ New Republican Governor Just Declared.....
        * Documents: Quinn had marijuana recommendations,.....
        * Clippers rally to beat Jazz 94-89, extend strea.....
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Kaitschuk leaves pork produ.....
        * McMillan may help mend important relationship..
        * Local Lawmakers Anticipate New Session..
        * Right To Work Reaction..
        * Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner among nation's top d.....


        * Trial opens for 2 accused of desecrating Illinois cemetery
        * Report: Illinois marijuana market could reach $36M in 2016
        * Gov. Rauner among nation's top donors in 2014 elections
        * Brothers accused of digging up graves, dumping remains
        * Police reform bills spurred by recent deaths, racial unrest
        * Judge upholds 122-year prison sentence in Romeoville slaying
        * Chicago Cubs' Ernie Banks statue moved downtown for tribute
        * Northern Illinois facility for juvenile wards closes
        * House committee passes ban on plastic beads polluting lakes
        * Chicago mayor places wreath Cubs great Ernie Banks' statue

        * Springfield gaming terminal up 46 percent in 2014; revenue hits $1M
        * Rauner among nation's top donors in 2014 elections
        * Lawmaker proposes bill to ban convicted terrorists from teaching
        * Police reform bills spurred by recent deaths, racial unrest
        * State's tax revenue from video gambling more than doubles
        * Report: Illinois marijuana market could reach $36M in 2016
        * Rauner: 'Right to work zones' are first-year priority
        * Rauner previews 'right to work zones' as first-year priority
        * Judge grants extension in Illinois prison crowding case
        * State lawmaker introduces bill to cut officeholders' pay

        * McD's cuts more than 100 HQ jobs—and there may be more to come
        * McDonald's CEO Don Thompson is out
        * Illinois drops in U.S. wind power ranks
        * McDonald's inks lease for new digital digs in River North
        * Feds rattle $1.2 billion saber at CPS over lack of testing


          * $12 million rehab ahead for Union Station
          * Critics boo as College of DuPage board reaffirms president's buyout
          * Judge fines, sanctions longtime Harvey comptroller
          * Warren Buffett's sister gives Northwestern a $101M gift
          * Man dies 2 days after Little Village shooting
          * Trial begins for man accused of killing father at Westmont hotel
          * Sacred Heart turned patient trust in doctors 'upside down,' lawyer says
          * Woman who rescued wayward bus haunted by experience
          * Man who worked with Big Brothers group charged with child porn: police
          * Trial of brothers starts in Burr Oak Cemetery scandal


          * Rauner High On List of "Sugar Daddies Of State Politics"
          * Graying Illinois
          * Let's Talk Kids - "Reading To Babies"
          * House Rules Break Bipartisanship
          * "This I Believe" Essay Contest Deadline Is Jan. 29
          * Cervical Cancer Awareness
          * What's Up With Chatham's Water?
          * New Chair Sworn In At ISBE
          * Rauner Raises Unions' Ire With Plan For Right-To-Work Zones
          * Rauner Raises Unions' Ire With Right-To-Work Plan


          * Our View: Dawdling on medical marijuana extends suffering for Illinois' severely ill
          * Stanford Levin: Nuclear power plant closures could hurt Illinois consumers
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Kaitschuk leaves pork producers to join Rauner team
          * Eugene Robinson: Hillary stands alone
          * Quote of the Day: Thursday, Jan. 29, 2015
          * Springfield gaming terminal up 46 percent in 2014; revenue hits $1M
          * Rauner among nation's top donors in 2014 elections
          * Lawmaker proposes bill to ban convicted terrorists from teaching
          * Police reform bills spurred by recent deaths, racial unrest
          * State's tax revenue from video gambling more than doubles


          * Artie Eddleman
          * Shirley Babcock
          * James Russell
          * Junior Gibbs
          * Nash Johnson
          * Rita Martin
          * Willis Johnson
          * Alonzo Hampton
          * Sharon Baity
          * Nellie Layman


          * Toffoli, Muzzin score late, LA Kings rally past Chicago 4-3
          * Squatters slow Detroit's plan to bulldoze way to prosperity
          * Serena Williams to maintain No 1 ranking after Melbourne
          * Late goals lifts Kings over Blackhawks 4-3
          * Lleyton Hewitt says next Australian Open likely his last

          * Rep. Schakowsky Introduces Bill to Impose ...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement in Support o...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement in Oppositio...
          * House votes to undo Obama immigration acti...
          * Rep. Schakowsky Introduces Bill to Establi...
          * Schakowsky Introduces the Public Option De...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement Observing In...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement Against the ...
          * Renewed Voting Rights effort urged - San D...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement on Martin Lu...

          * University eText platforms, open-source te......
          * The Elites bow to Mecca...
          * Saving Protections for Undocumented Immigr......
          * Durbin Thinks Food Safety...
          * Cuba trade backers in Senate take small st......

          * Truax forms PAC as Kirk shifts left...
          * Democrats put brakes on iran rules...
          * Analysis: On Iran, Congress plays its hand......
          * Kirk-Menendez re-introduce bill for Iran s......

          * The Lake County Election Recommission
          * Immigration reform too strong an issue for ideologue resistance to endure
          * We’ve moved!
          * In The Lyons Of Fire
          * BGA Backs New State Disclosure Effort
          * Budget Crisis Task Force Examines Illinois’ Debt Woes
          * To Cut Costs, Suburbs Eye Police Dept. Merger
          * State’s High Court Hears IG’s Case
          * Can We Trust The Infrastructure Trust?
          * Numbers Are In! Illinois Leads In Most Government Bodies


          * Governor announces latest round of agency appointments
          * Rauner announces “Turnaround Team” - Stellar team to help turn Illinois around
          * Commerce Department to Review Proposals for Enterprise Zones - Program Promotes Job Growth in Communities Across the State
          * Governor Rauner signs Executive Order for Minority and Veteran Empowerment
          * Governor Rauner Announces Second Round of Appointments




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller