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A quick run-through of the down-ballot statewide polling
Monday, Sep 22, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * Let’s take a brief look at some Sun-Times/We Ask America poll results, shall we? * No surprise…  Wow…  Over 40 in Chicago? Holy moly, a stomping appears to be coming. * No surprise…  Interesting…  As I told subscribers earlier today, if Cross can keep himself around 20 in Chicago, he likely wins. * Hovering just above 50 isn’t great, but her opponent has no money so he can’t do much about it anyway…  Whoa…  The Madigan brand has taken a serious beating. * Compare AG Madigan’s performance among independents with Jesse White’s… 
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- Shore - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:21 pm:
jesse white and JBT are two of the more remarkable figures of their generation and I’ve never voted for either. they’ve managed to last a long long time with decent brands and most people in chicagoland have seen his tumblers almost every few years forever.
lisa should have taken mr obama’s senate seat in 2010 when she had the shot. she would have been a short list vp nominee now and national figure.
- Try-4-Truth - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:26 pm:
Shore, I don’t think she would have “allowed” herself to be a Blago appointee. She hated him with a passion. She maybe should have run for the office and Mark Kirk maybe on his way to a second term as Governor right now, but she wasn’t going to be appointed.
- Stones - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:30 pm:
Most interesting was the poll results posted regarding Lisa Madigan. I’m assuming that this has more to do with Mike than Lisa? Somebody correct me if I am wrong.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:33 pm:
“Lisa, Jesse, Judy”
Questions?
The best “prop bet” this Cycle is;
Sheila Simon losing worse to Comptroller Topinka than the two “Put Up” GOP candidates lose to Lisa and Jesse.
Comptroller Topinka is solidly inoculated against the worse run operation this Cycle.
To that,
The most Annoying Candidate this cycle, Sen. Frerichs;
The only thing you should be pleased about in being the most annoying candidacy, is that Sheila is there to take the most inept, but not by much, and on a given day, Frerichs and his Crew outdo Sheila.
Comptroller Topinka, over 40% in the city…in the CITY, will help drag Cross over the lube far more than Rauner would. Period.
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
== The Madigan brand has taken a serious beating. ==
Ouch. Those Independent numbers are approaching the Speaker’s level of support. Not long ago she would have doubled or tripled him.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:45 pm:
I don’t really get the point here. Did anyone think Lisa was ever as popular as Jesse White or Judy Baar the door? Lisa will get about 60% of the vote, and Judy and Jesse will probably be close to 70%.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:51 pm:
=== Did anyone think Lisa was ever as popular as Jesse White or Judy Baar the door?===
2010, JW: 69.87%
2010, LM: 64.72%
2010, Badabinka: 52.62%
- Belle - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:01 pm:
I am tired of Lisa. I don’t see what she actually does in any kind of dramatic fashion. She’s kind of attractive, thin, speaks well but I feel like she’s been coasting on Daddy.
There were times when most of these people could be telling us a different political story and how different the state would see today?
There are not many politicians than can be as continuously popular as Jesse White. But, he is the one that needs to be exactly where he is and not a rung higher.
- OneMan - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:04 pm:
Somewhere in an office Sheila SIMON starts making another suit, this one is a winner she thinks to herself.
- RNUG - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:06 pm:
Being AG doesn’t require drama; it requires a steady hand and attention to detail. While I haven’t always agreed with all her actions, she has done a mostly competent job.
- North - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:11 pm:
Belle,
I’m tired of your sexism. I don’t see what you do in any kind of dramatic fashion. If you wouldn’t comment on the appearance of male public figures, you owe female public figures the same respect, regardless of what you think of their politics.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:21 pm:
I stand corrected. I looked back at the 2010 elections as well, and all I can say is, I was wrong…. And… Who in the heck is Robert Enriquez? I can even remember Stu Umholtz, but not this guy.
- Lance - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:31 pm:
tough weekend for TaxHikeMike…first the poll numbers, then the alexi snub.. then the lame response to the alexi endorsement…if this were a fight, the referee would be stopping the bout…
- Formerly Known As... - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:03 pm:
Mrs. Madigan seems to have lost the benefit of the doubt.
For years, most Independents viewed her as a ==good cop== sort of figure, not allowing her last name to bias them. As the Attorney General, she is someone who supposedly operates under the rule of law and above the cronyism of Illinois politics.
Is it an accumulation of details like her recent choice not to recuse from the NRI investigation? Madigan name fatigue? Another cause? Whatever the reason, the luster of Lisa Madigan’s name has apparently been lost.
- MrJM - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:22 pm:
Ms. Madigan’s “will she?/won’t she?/not while dad’s around” tap-dance with the governor’s race really hurt her in the eyes of many voters who’d previously viewed her as sufficiently independent from her father.
– MrJM
- wordslinger - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:28 pm:
Sure looks like the Madigan brand has taken a beating.
I wonder if Lisa’s “Hamlet” act about running for governor has something to do with it, too?
Still…. what’s the name of the guy running against her?
I’m guessing she’s 55%+ on election day.
- truthteller - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:47 pm:
Madigan got where she is-first State Senator and now AG- based on her name and father’s support. She’s had plenty of time to distinguish herself but instead has just been another in a long line of mediocre AG’s.
Now that the brand is suffering, she is suffering, with nothing to fall back on. If she had a real opponent, she would be in real trouble.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:49 pm:
===If she had a real opponent, she would be in real trouble. ===
Actually, Rauner and Cross would be the ones in trouble. Remember how MJM moved heaven and earth in 2002? Neither of those guys want to see that again.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:13 pm:
Lance:
Cross has been running for statewide office for 12 years and he is only up seven points?
As for Alexi…I am not sure what you think would have been a more appropriate response.
If you think that Cross wants everyone to know that he voted repeatedly against raising the minimum wage and equal rights for gays, I suppose you should take out an ad.
Cross thought it was important for Alexi to tell the whole world that he is a liberal, so maybe Team Frerichs is on to something.
I think this one is going to continue to tighten, with a big bunch remaining undecided until Election Day.
It will all come down to who has a better GOTV organization, Cross or Democrats.
- Tracker101 - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:17 pm:
Everytime Big Mike Frerichs’ image or name appears in Capitol Fax, Oswego Willy pops wood and excitedly jumps on him. I am unsure Oswego is “green with envy” or has formed a “man crush” on the young Democrat from Southern Illinois running for Treasure? If Republican Leaders Cross is pinning his hopes and dreams on winning 20% of the Chicago vote, I suggest he lean over and kiss his ars goodbye — cause Chicago is going to turn out heavily for Jesse White and Mike Frerichs! And Cross ain’t JBT!!!!!
Willy is fast becoming a one trick pony.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:24 pm:
- Tracker101 -,
We can talk the merits of Mike Frerichs if you want;
Can’t them ever his own voting record?
Foreign investment Israel?
The annoying tweeting & comparing him to Rutherford?
The glomming on legislation, then backtracking to credit sponsors after the fact?
Make your case about Frerichs, not about me.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:25 pm:
…remember…
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:12 pm:
Frerichs is 40 isn’t he?
I mean, I know he looks pretty young, but he is no spring chicken.
In fact, I think he is about ten years older than Alexi when he was elected.
Alexi actually always looked older to me than he was.
We shall see, Willy.
To me, Cross is trying to run as an outsider, and that is about as doomed as Rauner’s $18 watch schtick.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:22 pm:
- YDD -,
I head ya. Much respect as always.
I think the Comptroller Topinka lead-in is the best thing going for Cross.
Let that sit for a moment.
- Downstate - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:42 pm:
Rich, does the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association pay for the privilege of you removing every comment that mentions fracking or is it just part of your personal crusade?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:52 pm:
LOL
Funny.
The answer is you were semi-banned quite a while ago for being a doofus. And since you’re just now noticing it, you’ve proved my point about the doofus thing.
- Brass - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:58 pm:
Interesting strategy for Cross. Get one of the most fiscally incompetent suburban mayors in corrupt Aurora (more Dem voters) to endorse you, then get Alexi, who you voted against for Treasuer and Senate, to do the same, all to attract some Dem votes hoping Republicans are too stupid to realize you are sacrificing your values and integrity in the process.
- steve schnorf - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 8:52 pm:
Dog, I don’t think issues or other specifics register very heavily in down-ballot races. I think voters look at the 2 candidates very generally, with name recognition playing a big roll, and, absent something hugely scandalous, either with free media staying power or an opponent with enough money to burn it in (very rare in down-ballot races), vote for the person they kinda like the best. IMHO, the only real exception to this is the AA vote going heavily to very heavily D,and the normal (except JBT) down-ballot vote falloff tempering that somewhat
- steve schnorf - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:01 pm:
I think I was thinking about Cape Girardeau when I typed “roll”, not “role”