65 Comments - Just Observing - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 9:57 am: I think the ad is a little too slow and nebulous… I don’t think it will resonate too strongly with most voters. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 9:59 am: Potentially dangerous as it still is early. Chuy could talk budget specifics regarding TIF $ going to education, compare that to Rahm’s budget, and it could look pretty good. - Snucka - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:00 am: A good introduction to the “not ready to lead” line of attack. As bad as Rahm looks doing his Mr. Rogers impersonation in the first ad, Chuy looks just as bad here. - quicknote - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:03 am: It would be interesting to find out who the foremost national and international municipal budget experts are. - Math major - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:04 am: Ok - anon - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:05 am: The Tribsters have already informed Chuy that the standard they applied to a Republican will not be applied to him. In other words, it’s the good old partisan double standard. - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:06 am: ==Garcia is so far taking the Bruce Rauner approach, as is Emanuel, for that matter == As learned from President Obama, who learned it from many politicians before him. Promise everything and nothing, and do so for as long as the media lets you get away with it. - Math major - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:07 am: I find it interesting that so many recipients are crying about their reduction in free money from the state. My experience tells me out of control debt is not a product of income but rather spending. Glad we have a governor who can add. - Snucka - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:11 am: I think the debates, especially the first, will be big. Chicago had never had a mayoral runoff, so this race should get a lot of attention. A televised debate will put both men on the spot. Rahm’s argument seems to be that he is competent to lead the city and Chuy is not. If either man can prove/disprove thst argument on March 16, it could tell us where the race is headed. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:14 am: The ad is a “pass”. It’s modestly effective in demonstrating that he’s not even “artfully” dodging the question. It’s a careful message. This whole “Trust me, I know what to do” strategy actually goes back to Jimmy Carter. It’s been used in some measure, ever since. If this does well on Social Media, we’ll see it on broadcast. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:16 am: Snuck, I think your observation is correct. What worries me is how many people will watch. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:17 am: “Chuy could talk budget specifics regarding TIF $” I was wondering whether Garcia should support a financial transaction tax. CTU supports it. - MrJM - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:18 am: ==Garcia is so far taking the Bruce Rauner approach, as is Emanuel, for that matter == As learned from President Obama, who learned it from many politicians before him. As has been said before: if, after an extended primary, general election campaign and more than two dozen debates, you still didn’t know what Barack Obama had in mind in 2008, that’s on you. – MrJM - Cold - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:18 am: For all those who criticize Chuy, please tell me just what is Rahm’s specific plan for the future after the Supreme Court puts the kibosh on pension theft and his phoney borrow 2 months from the next year CPS budget ends. Rahm has no plan either. - Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:20 am: At City Club, Chuy was asked the question of where he’s going to get the revenue for all his goodies. His response was that he was going to “scour the Earth looking for revenue.” That line got a laugh from many in the crowd who wondered if he was confused about the jurisdiction in which he was running. - John Gregory - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:27 am: “It’s hugely important for candidates to discuss what they plan to do after the election, but the Chicago media mostly gave Rauner a pass last year when he promised details for months and never provided them.” Rich, you’ve made that claim several times and it’s no more true now than it was last year. We asked plenty–we got the same non-answers Springfield reporters did. I can’t force Rauner’s people to be more specific than they want to, or talk about a plan that didn’t exist. With all due respect, it sounds like you’re playing up some sort of “Springfield vs Chicago” argument and claiming your side is better. To suggest we didn’t do our job, that’s out of line. - ChiTownSeven - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:29 am: Rauner’s backing state legislation that would let Rahm wipe out Chicago’s pension debt via U.S. bankruptcy court, as was done in Detroit. Now don’t jump all over me saying that I’m comparing Chicago to Detroit (where retired city workers and their widows/widowers got about 14 cents on the dollar). I’m merely pointing out that if this bill becomes law, Rahm and his ilk will then have significant leverage to extract pension concessions from trade unions and other interested parties, to wit: bargain with me on this or we’ll see you in bankruptcy court. It’s interesting that Rahm hasn’t come out against the bill. How could he, when the Trib and all of Rahm’s 1% pals have been beating this drum for years. As for Chuy’s silence on this and other pension/fiscal matters — who knows? The risk that he runs in remaining mum is that after a while he starts looking inept. And his silence lends credence to the argument that those who vote for Chuy are similar to those who voted by Raunder — in other words, it’s never a good idea to buy a pig in a poke. Chuy’s campaign stills seems to be managed and operating like a campaign for alderman — almost as if they haven’t staffed and suited up for the big leages. - MrJM - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:30 am: The candidates learned from the last election and the press is learning, but will the voters learn their lesson in time? I have my doubts. – MrJM - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:31 am: ===Rahm has no plan either.=== Sure he does, and yes, it’s a little fuzzy. But as importantly, Rahm has a track record. I think you’ll see continued cuts in city services and some new revenues, including fees and fines. That’s why red light cameras aren’t going away and Rahm’s taking the heat for it. That’s why under-utilized schools were closed and Rahm is taking the heat for it. That’s why Rahm isn’t promising pie-in-the-sky ideas like hiring 1000 more police officers that Chicago can’t afford. You can get a pretty good idea of where Rahm is taking the city financially by looking at the last four budgets. We have no idea where Chuy wants to take us or how much it’s going to cost. - From the 'Dale to HP - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:39 am: Not a bad ad, but the problem is the issue. Most people stopped listening about five seconds in. There’s still another 40 seconds to go in the ad after most of tuned out. Grade: C- - Just Observing - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:41 am: === It would be interesting to find out who the foremost national and international municipal budget experts are. === I was thinking the same. This is silly. What municipal budget experts are taking their time to volunteer for Chuy as I doubt Chuy’s campaign is spending money now on hiring experts. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:43 am: –Glad we have a governor who can add– LOL, when you look at those pension and health “savings,” I’d say creative writing is his thing, not math. - From the 'Dale to HP - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:43 am: @47th, Gotta disagree. Rahm’s track record so far is kicking the can down the road. His plan moving forward is praying that Springfield will allow him to defer payment on pensions. And we haven’t even gotten to the complete disaster the CPS budget is (it makes the state budget look good, if not great). Both Chuy and Rahm are going to raise property taxes on day one or two in office. Neither can or will say it. Neither has a plan without doing so. So here we are, both candidates offering up little to nothing on the budget side in the race. - Amalia - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:44 am: does nothing if you are listening. if you are watching, it works. note to the media, ask Chuy who the experts are. we know who works for Rahm, but who works for Chuy? - Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:45 am: ==if, after an extended primary, general election campaign and more than one dozen debates, you still didn’t know what Bruce Rauner had in mind in 2014, that’s on you== Fixed that for you. - The Captain - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:45 am: That ad is 48 seconds it’s not going on the air. Also it drags so maybe you could cut 18 seconds and turn it into something, which would probably be more effective. - Cold - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:47 am: You can get a good idea of where the City is headed financially under Rahm by the Moody’s downgrade. And, please, a bankruptcy can’t be limited to the pension fund but would have to involve the entire City and all of its assets. Again, no plan other than some smoke and mirrors talking points. I do fault the press for not turning Rahm’s question about Chuy right back at him. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:01 am: ==We asked plenty–we got the same non-answers Springfield reporters did. I can’t force Rauner’s people to be more specific than they want to, or talk about a plan that didn’t exist.== And what sort of stories did you write? Did you write stories questioning why he didn’t have a plan or did you just shrug your shoulders because he wouldn’t tell you. Did you press your editorial boards why they were endorsing a candidate who didn’t provide any plan? You can put all of your righteous indignation out there about the criticism but the criticism is spot on. You failed at your job. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:02 am: Cold - that’s illogical, as Mark Brown - a Chuy supporter - drove home in his latest column. There’s a near consensus that Rahm’s moves kept the other major raters from downgrading and/or that the downgrade(s) would be much worse but for his budget moves. That Chuy supporters are making this disengenous argument - while talking-up magic pixie dust proposals like taxing suburban commuters - says far more about Chuy than Rahm. - Hacksaw Jim - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:05 am: === Both Chuy and Rahm are going to raise property taxes on day one or two in office. === I hope they do. We desperately need the revenue, and we can afford the hit. I have a home that we purchased for 200K, and we are paying less than 3k annually in property taxes with no exemptions. The problem is, for some reason, Chicagoans feel that they are overtaxed when it comes to property taxes. I really don’t understand it. Do people in Chicago not know anyone in the suburbs who have to pay 2 or 3 times as much? - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:10 am: Hacksaw, at least 3 times that much. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:11 am: ===Do people in Chicago not know anyone in the suburbs who have to pay 2 or 3 times as much?=== I agree that our property taxes in Chicago are too low. On the other hand, unless you’re fortunate enough to live in one of the better-performing neighborhood school boundaries, you have to pay private school tuition on top of your CPS taxes. In many suburbs, while the taxes are higher, middle class families can use their local schools without worrying that the education their children receives will be substandard. Remember though, it will take a massive property tax hike to simply pay the pensions for teachers, police and fireman. That won’t add a penny for hiring more or raises or anything else. That’s why this is going to be so painful. Most voters understand they need to pay more for new or expanded services. They aren’t going to like paying more for the same or reduced/diminished service, but that’s what’s going to happen. And I wouldn’t want to talk about it either. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:13 am: ===without worrying that the education their children receives will be substandard.=== As mine clearly was. Oof. Singular? Plural? How does that work again? - JeffingingChicago - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:15 am: I think the contrast is stark and clear. Rahm is releasing very little money and information about TIFs and Chuy thinks the TIF fund will cover everything. Personally shrink the TIF areas by 50% raise property taxes by 20% and I think you are good. The TIF areas recover with the 20% increase too. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:16 am: So true 47. - Gerson - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:18 am: The most important part of the solution to Chicago’s debt/pension situation is taxes–property and income taxes. Who is more likely to do what is necessary on this front? Does anyone have a record on this? Is anyone making promises? Garcia has given a vague answer on his unwillingness to raise taxes, but no unqualified promise. With Emanuel, we have his gradual property tax proposal that was squashed by Quinn and a refusal to make promises about taxes in the future. But we also have his record of four years of avoiding raising property taxes, and he actually eliminated the head tax. Refusing to move before the election has certainly contributed the recent debt downgrades, which have a real cost to the city–higher interest costs and swap costs due to the city’s diminished credit rating. So Emanuel had the city take on extra costs to defer making a decision and to aid his own election. I’m not sure which candidae scores better so far. I think you have to give Garcia the edge on ability and willingness to successfully increase taxes in the future. Emanuel has continually demonstrated an unwillingness to do anything that would come at the expensive of the city’s wealthy precincts (his base). - Cold - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:23 am: Yes the next mayor will have to raise taxes and cut spending. But which spending? Rahm has cut only services while leaving spending on TIFs etc. untouched. Haven’t heard a peep out of Rahm about any cuts to his handouts to the other 1%. That is why people are mad at him and think he has done a bad job. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:23 am: ===give Garcia the edge on ability and willingness to successfully increase taxes in the future=== We’ll see, but boy is he going to need every edge he can get. Given that he’s promised to do away with red light cameras, re-open a bunch of schools, and hire 1000 more cops. And he’ll need to make some hefty pension payments too. That’s a lot of lifting. I hope he can find 25 votes for it too. - Chris - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:30 am: “Chuy could talk budget specifics regarding TIF $ going to education” If 100% of TIFs were cancelled (which is NOT Chuy’s position), and 100% of current TIF funds disbursed (which can NOT happen without the city being sued–and losing), THEN there would be a one year patch on the current problems, and a ~20% fix of the structural budget problems of CPS and the city thereafter. It wouldn’t pay for a single extra teacher or a single extra cop. - Gerson - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:32 am: 47W: Agreed. Cold also makes a good pt on the TIFs. Giving away $30m to build River Point office tower, tens of millions to build Marriott and Hyatt hotels, and tens of millions build Mariano’s and Whole Foods in areas where there are already unsubsidized supermarkets would be a good start. - Carhartt Representative - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:33 am: Rahm managed to make the school budget work by changing the number of months in the year. Maybe that’s his plan for the city. - Chris - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:39 am: “Given that he’s promised to … re-open a bunch of schools” Why is he promising what CPS would do? Isn’t he for an elected school board? Shouldn’t the elected school board decide whether to re-open schools? Totally two-faced on that count. - Chris - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 11:43 am: ” Chuy thinks the TIF fund will cover everything” If Chuy actually thinks this, then he is not smart enough to be mayor. He also is on record saying that he wants to change how the TIF funds are used, not eliminate them, so he isn’t actually proposing giving up the slush fund (of course he isn’t–it would be *crazy* for a mayor to do so). - anon - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:00 pm: Whether reduction in TIFs can alone provide the answer, not putting them on the table as part of a solution is a major drawback to re-electing Rahm. And Chuy should capitalize on that. - Steve - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:09 pm: This is an excellent post by Rich. The media needs to press both candidates on how they plan to fund government in the coming years. What is going to be the combination of taxes and spending? Anyway, probable coming downgrades from Moodys will force the issue. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:14 pm: Like most seeking elective office, neither Chuy nor Rahm are proposing a responsible budget. So Chuy reduces TIFs / corporate welfare, but then he spends the money to keep more schools open, hire more police, get rid of red light camera revenue. I’ll be voting for Chuy because I like that tradeoff. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:29 pm: Fioretti had specifics on the budget & revenue. How did the Chicago Tribune & CST editorial boards respond? - Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:31 pm: I’d give it a B+/A-. It does a good job of conveying that Garcia is a blank screen onto which people are projecting their “progressive” fantasies. What is he actually going to do? How’s he going to pay for those 1,000 cops? Etc. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 12:54 pm: The suburbs starting coping with the TIF bogeyman several years ago. Because it was a very complicated formula to explain to voters (like Home-Rule), it was very easy to demonize it. The reality in the burbs was that TIF was simply the only economic tool available to spruce up some of their distressed areas and property. Early on the TIF bogey man was easy to sell. As time went on, the better conceived TIFs started performing as they were meant to and provided some good projects around towns. Smartly, those good public/private projects became the new face of TIF in those places. People didn’t understand them much better, but they had an example of where they worked and worked well. The city has overused them. Even dramatically. Getting rid of all of them would definitely impact jobs negatively. The one thing TIFs almost always do is provide good income jobs in construction, etc. What is a fact, is that Chicago doesn’t balance it’s books eliminating TIFs, even if they got rid of every one. Not even close. But for this cycle at least, the bogeyman is still out there. - Arizona Bob - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:37 pm: Let’s face it…if elected, Chuy would be to Chicago as Coleman Young was to Detroit. He’ll tax the “rich” and middle class out of town and buy political power through giveaways and patronage in an ever shrinking tax base. It’ll probably keep him in power, especially if the POTUS gets away with the legalization of illegal immigration. Buying political power through hurting the productive, law abiding citizenry is what BHO’s trying to give through executive order. What poor choices Chicagoans have for the “savior” they need for their politically made financial disaster. I guess we get the government we deserve. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:00 pm: AB, how did I know you’d be the guy to play the Coleman Young card? For you youngsters watching at home, the “another Detroit” theme in relation to Chicago was first raised in the runup to the 1987 mayoral election. The idea was, once you go black, you can’t get back, and Coleman Young was the poster child for those misanthropes. The card was played on Harold, on Bradley in LA, on Dinkins in New York. All those cities, of course, have elected white mayors since they “went black,” as has Detroit. Chuy ain’t black, but you get the picture. Kind of that whole “gravitas” dog whistle that Sen. Kirk put out there the other day. Not like “gravitas helped any with Moody’s. - Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:07 pm: 47, that is exactly right about taxes and schools. Paid way too low property taxes in City but sent kids to private schools because our neighborhood school was substandard and didn’t get in anywhere decent. Saved $$$ moving to North Shore with higher prop taxes, but great schools and no more tuition. As Bill McKay might say, there’s got to be a better way. Too bad Chuy has no clue. - Arizona Bob - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:46 pm: @Word Actually, Word, the color of the candidate has little to do with it. Their “suck the productive dry and give more pieces of an ever contracting pie to the non productive who’ll vote for you” mentality is the issue. His history is one of redistribution and increasing entitlement and bureaucracy, NOT creating an environment for economic growth. Is there ANYTHING he’s said in this campaign that indicates that perception is incorrect? Seriously, if he’s “got religion” to realize that attracting business and investment rather than creating budget holes for political patronage, I’d love to hear an example of how he made that case. - Gerson - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:54 pm: Insofar as business is concerned, I’d expect a Garcia Admin to be not that different from Harold Washington’s. Sure, you’d hear some sturm and drang about the mayor being “divisive” (or lacking “gravitas”), but as with Washington Corporate Chicago and the Mayor will find their interests align. Many of the people who tell dark tales about 1980s Chicago do so from the tops of skyscrapers built or initiated under Harold’s admin–much of Chicago’s modern office stock comes from that era. Washington was the one who turned around Chicago’s finances, getting the first bond upgrade since the 1960s and running a balanced budget at the city AND CPS after he raised property taxes in the ‘87 budget. The Daley Admin milked those gains for much of the 1990s. Many of Chicago’s peer cities–NYC, Washington, SF, not to mention nearby Midwest cities like St Louis, Indy, Louisville, Cincy, Cleveland, Columbus, Denver–have income taxes, and that may not even be required. Just higher prop taxes, plus changes to TIFs and some of the other things mentioned in others’ posts. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:01 pm: ===Their “suck the productive dry and give more pieces of an ever contracting pie to the non productive who’ll vote for you” mentality is the issue.=== Here we have the conservative Republican victimhood mentality in one sentence. AB, that sentiment, which you repeat at every opportunity, is as offensive as it pathetically moronic. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:23 pm: Couldn’t have said it better myself 47th. - Amalia - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:25 pm: over at the Trib, an op ed piece by John McCarron is up on the city of chicago finance issue and the candidates. as per usual for McCarron, it is a great piece, filled with straight up analysis and advice. - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:27 pm: Gerson. Thoughtful thesis, but Chuy ain’t Harold. Not by a long distance. Not a lot of people have the gravitas of Harold. What you say about his time in office is absolutely correct. Harold could have been Mayor for a long time, with a lot of support from people of every ethnic group. His stature was beyond either of the choices we have today. He beat the machine in campaigning and in governing. Guys like him don’t come along too often. And Chuy isn’t one of ‘em. - Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:40 pm: 47, AB doesn’t rate “conservative Republican.” Real conservative Republicans are the goods, and few and far between these days, as the crowded clown car of cable, radio, and the U.S. House GOP demonstrate. AB is an ignorant, mean, lying, racist, misanthropic troll. AB, I imagine you might object to “lying.” The others….. Fill us in some more on your amazing life, as you’ve related it over the years: – Builder of power plants, nuke and otherwise, all over the country. I recall that you were disturbed by the immorality of the workers at that power plant you built In Clinton. –South Side and West Side Chicago political operative, knocking on doors, getting the feel of the street (role model for A Guy). – Teacher, professor, school administrator, school board member. – Bizarro world historian. ( I especially liked your WWII idea of invading Europe from the south of England through the Adriatic, rather than the Channel). – Regal family leader; no drugs, no divorce, no out of wedlock births, no fun at all in the AB world. AB, I feel for you. You’re a lonely old dude desperate for attention. I get it. John Prine, “Hello in there.” But you’ve got options. Turn off the TV and radio. Get outdoors. Volunteer at the school down the street. Ump a little league game. Something. Dont waste your time with the crazy hate. “To believe in this kind of living is a hard way to go,” - A guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 5:01 pm: I’m feeling a bit like collateral damage there Sling. - Amalia - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 5:20 pm: chuy is pretty much a blank slate, albeit one that is adding up all the money he wants to spend (police, schools, don’t know if he is on that mental health clinic kick) and the revenue that he will cut (red light cameras, O’Hare expansion). how in the world can that compute? - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 5:34 pm: I have been in places unable to view and see the Ad “Rate it?” I give it a “B-, C+” Why? Like Rauner, and given the 5 weeks left, I dunno if attacking in a lack of substane this late really can “stick”, even with 3 debates scheduled. Rahm now needs to make this point in each debate that’s left, and hope to have Press pick up on it to make his (Rahm’s) narrative fly. It’s above a “gentleman’s C”, but with 5 weeks left, Rahm needs to speed up this narrative and get it sticking. As a stand alone “rate Ad”, it’s just above “meh”. - anon - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 5:59 pm: How in the world does Rahm’s plan compute? - John Gregory - Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 6:46 pm: To Demoralized You assume I work for an organization that has an editorial board and endorses candidates. I do not. I find it interesting you assume I failed at my job. How did I do that? I reported the lack of specifics in Rauner’s plans. Was I supposed to talk about a plan that didn’t exist? Invent something to attack? Ignore everything else in the campaign to ask questions about a plan I wasn’t going to get answers on? Please, enlighten me. - Carhartt Representative - Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 5:59 am: =For you youngsters watching at home, the “another Detroit” theme in relation to Chicago was first raised in the runup to the 1987 mayoral election.= I thought it was actually first used in a Richard J. Daley election in the early 70s, but I may be wrong. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.