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Reading the tells
Monday, Jun 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller * AP…
As I’ve said before, the governor so thoroughly controls both GOP caucuses that you first have to look for a “brick.” I think the bricks, if any, were more subtle on most of these bills than we’ve seen on other potentially controversial pieces of legislation. * With that in mind, let’s look at the roll calls, starting with the marijuana decrim bill. Republicans in both the House and Senate voted for the bill, suggesting that there was no solid brick on it. But the two GOP legislative leaders voted “No,” which could very well hint that the governor isn’t fully on board. * Moving on to the PTSD bill. The Senate Republicans were all off that bill except for Sen. Oberweis. A couple of amendments were added in the House exempting patients from some FOID card laws. The amended bill passed the House with strong bipartisan support, although Leader Durkin voted “No.” But the Senate refused to accept the amendments and the House ended up voting to recede 60-41-6. This bill was sponsored in the House by Rep. Lou Lang. Rauner bricked Lang’s medical marijuana sunset extension in the Senate after the bill passed the House with bipartisan support. In between votes, Lang publicly lashed out at the governor. * Next up, the equal pay bill. The legislation zoomed through both chambers, with Sen. Oberweis casting the lone “No” vote. That one’s not too difficult to figure out. * And, finally, the gay conversion therapy ban bill. The legislation passed the House and the Senate with few GOP votes. However, both Republican leaders voted “Yes,” perhaps indicating that Rauner is open to supporting it.
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- chiagr - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:35 am:
It would be nice if he actually took a stance on something other than his Personal Agenda!!
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:37 am:
I predict he will cave to the Right when he has to. Remember, this is the guy who said he’d veto gay marriage during the campaign.
- Not Rich - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:42 am:
If he starts picking a fight over social issues, it could be way more than he is prepared to take on.. The budget fight will really heat up after the 4th of July weekend, add on some unpopular vetoes, and it could get real hot on the 2nd floor
- JS Mill - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:49 am:
Seems like the PTSD bill opposition was politically motivated rather than purely a stance on a social issue. If that is true, shame on those that opposed the measure.
- SAP - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:50 am:
Brick, brick, no brick, no brick.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:56 am:
–…the governor so thoroughly controls both GOP caucuses….–
To me, that’s still the biggest, and most shocking, story.
Bought and paid for, kit and kaboodle, for a few million bucks.
It could have been anybody who bought them.
- AlabamaShake - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:01 am:
**Republicans in both the House and Senate voted for the bill, suggesting that there was no solid brick on it. But the two GOP legislative leaders voted “No,” which could very well hint that the governor isn’t fully on board.**
Seems to me that there are a handful of people that you can watch to see where the Governor is.
Those people in the House are:
Durkin
Sandack
Sullivan
Those people in the Senate are:
Radogno
McConnaughay
If anyone on that list of 5 vote for the bill, it is very likely that they have been given the green light that the Governor will sign.
- walker - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:09 am:
Might signal whether he has a future run for national office in the back of his mind.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:13 am:
He should sign all of those bills. Why not? None of them impact his agenda. I cannot imagine that Governor Rauner is intimidated by the likes of David Smith or Phyllis Schlafly or Paul Caprio.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:23 am:
===Seems like the PTSD bill opposition was politically motivated rather than purely a stance on a social issue.===
Some could also argue that opposition to the PTSD bill was also scientifically motivated. Work on the first federally funded controlled research project on PTSD and marijuana has been underway for about 5 years. The study has yet to collect any data due to issues with study design (aka the study protocol).
We do know from a observational study of more 2000 participants who were admitted to specialized Veterans Administration treatment programs for PTSD that the drug may actually worsen symptoms and increase violent behavior. This was, however, not a controlled study and needs to be confirmed.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:28 am:
@Team Sleep
Man, Phyllis Schlafly… always good for a laugh….
- OneMan - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:33 am:
He is going to be ok with MJ decriminalization…
Why, simple. It is going to reduce the prison load and reduce costs.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:34 am:
Ducky - yeah, I always chuckle when people throw her name around. She is such a cartoon character. Her ads for Jim Oberweis during the 2006 primary were a riot.
- Matt Jones - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:59 am:
Important to remember that there are zero studies at present supporting the expansion of MMJ to PTSD, (though lots of anecdotal stuff) and his IDPH has yet to accept the recommendations from the MMJ advisory panel. It COULD be less of a social issue and more of a science issue. Once the studies are done, I doubt anyone will oppose the expansion.
- Under Further Review - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:01 pm:
Why is Rauner’s position on SSM so important? The law passed and I doubt that Rauner is going to expend any capital on challenging or repealing SSM.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:03 pm:
Mr. Jones - correct, but look at the sponsor.
Senator Michael Hastings
Even for some of the rhetoric he lobbed near the end of spring session, Senator Hastings is fairly moderate. Governor Rauner would do well (in my opinion) to use the bill as a negotiating ploy with Senator Hastings.
And why not? Signing a bill that is near-and-dear to Senator Hasting’s heart might result in Senator Hasting’s support for some Turnaround Agenda items - if there can be some level of understanding.
- The Muse - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:12 pm:
@Under Further Review
Heard Rauner spoke at an LGBT event last week. If that’s the case, I’d take that as an indicator of how the Gov will proceed.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 1:27 pm:
===As I’ve said before, the governor so thoroughly controls both GOP caucuses that you first have to look for a “brick.” I think the bricks, if any, were more subtle on most of these bills than we’ve seen on other potentially controversial pieces of legislation.===
It’s the lack of autonomy of the GOP GA is what makes a “tell” much easier than when a governor, any governor, of any party, has an honest working relationship with his/her party in the legislature.
An autonomous GOP GA might be better counsel to Rauner, allowing Rauner to understand how to get to 60/30 or now 71/36, instead of the GOP GA being just literal chits (67 of them) in a final agreement with Cullerton and Madigan.
I’d come to a new understanding if I was a “no-tax ever!” GOP Members;
Your voting key is owned. Your record now is up to Rauner and how he chooses to use you.
I’d say you sold yourselves cheap GOP GA; only $20 million for 67 votes? Guess the going rate was lower than I thought.