Maybe not
Tuesday, Sep 1, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Dozens of counties across the country have been put on notice by the Public Interest Legal Foundation after it says 141 counties across the United States have more registered voters on the books than people alive in those counties.
What state is one of the worst offenders? That’s right, Illinois.
The public interest law firm dedicated to election integrity sent letters to county election officials in 21 states, which is the first move before bringing a lawsuit against those counties under the federal National Voter Registration Act. The NVRA requires election officials to maintain current voter roles and ensure only eligible voters are registered.
“Corrupted voter rolls provide the perfect environment for voter fraud,” said J. Christian Adams, President and General Counsel of PILF. “Close elections tainted by voter fraud turned control of the United States Senate in 2009. Too much is at stake in 2016 to allow that to happen again.”
Michigan is the worst offender, according to the group, with 24 counties on the list. Kentucky is second with 18, and Illinois is third at 17. Indiana (11), Alabama (10) and Colorado (10) round out the five offenders counties nationally.
* From Jon Musgrave at IllinoisHistory.com…
Rich,
I don’t know if you’ve seen the Public Interest Law Foundation release showing Illinois the second worst state in the union with the number of counties that have more registered voters than voting age population. Here’s the link if you haven’t - http://publicinterestlegal.org/election-law-live/scores-of-counties-put-on-notice-about-corrupted-voter-rolls/.
I saw a reference to it on a blog I read and thought I would check it out. I expected Alexander County to rank near the top of the Illinois counties based on its past and was surprised to find Franklin County at the highest. Not only was it the highest in Illinois but at 190 percent registered voters to voting age population is was the worst in the entire country.
I had my doubts so I ran the numbers using the ISBE and the Census Bureau websites. Turns out PILF’s numbers don’t add up. Of the 17 counties, only three have more registered voters than voting age residents.
Attached is a spreadsheet with my calculations.
Voting fraud is a problem. Playing hanky-panky with absentee ballots happens every election and it starts with sloppy voter rolls. I support efforts to clean them up, but PILF needs to be standing on solid ground when they start threatening federal lawsuits.
I’ve been a precinct committeeman, candidate and many times an election judge as well as a journalist at different times. This grabbed my attention because it was the perfect numbers story I would have ran with in a heartbeat.
I don’t know if it’s “too bad,” or “thank goodness,” it’s not really a problem, though I would love to run the numbers for East St. Louis and other troubled election authorities of which PILF seems completely ignorant.
* Click for a larger version…
Also keep in mind that a lot of this problem is caused when counties don’t purge their voter rolls often enough. It’s not necessarily criminal intent here.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:35 am:
When do counties ever purge the rolls? Is that a thing?
- The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:41 am:
One of the main parts of this problem happens when you move from one election authority to another, each county has its own election authority and some cities have their own. There are 110 in the state. When you move within an election authority and update your voter registration that’s easy for the election authority to update, they only have to update their own records. However when you move from one election authority to another the election authority where you provide your new registration is supposed to update the election authority that you are moving from, but that seldom happens. The result is that if you have lived in multiple counties in this state and you looked up yourself in a statewide voter file right now odds are decent that you’d find yourself listed more than once.
These eventually get purged when the counties perform their routine maintenance on the voter rolls but that takes time and it varies by county. We have a decentralized electoral system where the bulk of the work happens at the county level, that has a number of advantages but centralized record keeping is not one of them.
Also worth keeping this in mind next time you are studying turnout numbers, they aren’t precise and can be impacted by the quality of the voter rolls. If you’re comparing a 70% turnout vs. a 50% turnout the difference is enough to be significant, but if you’re comparing a 52.4% turnout vs. a 53.1% turnout the lack of confidence in the registration number will probably prevent you from drawing any stark conclusions.
- the Other Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:42 am:
Could not help notice that, contrary to what many say, these counties are all located in downstate, not northeastern Illinois. Hmm, perhaps the vote fraud is not really committed by Chicago Democrats?
Taking my tongue out of cheek, I absolutely agree with you that this is a bad measure. Purging the rolls takes money, and many of the counties on the list are strapped for cash. And Jon Musgrave’s analysis just underscores how bad a measure it is.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:43 am:
Even one is one too many. Managing elections is one of the most fundamental responsibilities of a government.
- Say It Ain't So!! - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:46 am:
Jersey, Pulaski and Scott: All overwhelmingly Republican counties. All of the others close to 100% are Republican controlled. Makes you wonder which side may have voter fraud. Maybe Mr. Rauner didn’t have as many legitimate votes as has been recorded. Things that make you say hmmmmmmm.
- IllinoisBoi - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:49 am:
Southern Illinois counties have a high percentage of elderly people and a high rate of out-migration. With so many voters dying and moving away it makes it challenging to keep the voting rolls up to date.
- A guy - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:51 am:
Any Precinct Captain can tell you this story while walking with a list and seeing up to 3 (or more) families listed as residing at an address. In multi-unit complexes where turnover occurs more quickly it’s especially bad. Captains may send the data to the county to evaluate removing people from the list, but it’s a slow process that can take a few cycles to catch up. There is an opportunity in a close election to wreak havoc with these kinds of registered voters. The moral of the story becomes “win by more than 3%. It’s a mess.
- St. Louis Bob - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:53 am:
I personally believe that this is nothing more than “right wing” propaganda to delegitimize our democratic system and marginalize our minority populations.
- Willie Stark - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:54 am:
Also, it reflects poorly on the Sun-Times and the “reporter” [stenographer] Chad Merda that they just published a press release with no additional context, fact-checking or background given on the organization promoting it. The ST is supposed to be a big city paper, not some podunk publication happy for the free slop the the IPI’s Illinois News Network dishes out to put next to the print advertising.
- South of 64 - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:55 am:
Good work Jon
- nixit71 - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 10:58 am:
57% of Franklin County voters voted for Romney in 2012.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:00 am:
Not sure why more “registered” voters than population is a big deal (other than up-to-date bookkeeping is always preferable). Wouldn’t the issue just be more “actual” voters?
- St. Louis Bob - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:09 am:
The only number that counts is 141. That’s the number in the headline that “suggests” that our voter rolls are corrupt.
- a drop in - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:20 am:
“It’s worth noting that Cook County, Illinois — or any other suburban Chicago counties — aren’t on the list, even though Chicago has long been associated with the “vote early and vote often” phrase.” This is at the bottom of the article. I also couldn’t find this article featured in news/national or have it come up with search “voter registration”. I suspect they published it so someone can refer to it in a political ad. Without the bottom paragraphs, of course.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:24 am:
Where are the non-county election authorities? Aurora. East St. Louis. Chicago. Three examples which come to mind.
- Annon3 - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:30 am:
Canvassing costs money. Most small counties stopped once the state stopped funding this function. Also, more people register as we have made it easier to do so.
Doing more with less is sometimes simply doing less.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:30 am:
Louis, there are eight: Chicago, Aurora, Rockford, Peoria, Bloomington, Danville, Galesburg and E. St. Louis.
- Creative Nickname - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:36 am:
Having fewer registered voters than a county’s voting age population is a very low bar to set when evaluating valid voter roles. As Guy mentioned, anyone who’s knocked doors knows that there are tons of voters listed that don’t reside where they are listed. It wouldn’t take much more than a willingness to commit voter fraud to record those listings and send an imposter to cast those votes.
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:43 am:
=== It wouldn’t take much more than a willingness to commit voter fraud to record those listings and send an imposter to cast those votes.
Nothing more than a pretty massive conspiracy. It also takes figuring out who isn’t actually at the address so you don’t have someone show up at the same time, and hundreds of people you are likely paying a pittance to show up and then not say anything about it after not blowing the lie while trying to remember the individual’s being impersonated details.
I mean, what could go wrong with a plan like that?
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:43 am:
“When do counties ever purge the rolls? Is that a thing?”
DuPage County does purges their rolls every 45 minutes or so.
– MrJM
- ArchPundit - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:49 am:
===. However when you move from one election authority to another the election authority where you provide your new registration is supposed to update the election authority that you are moving from, but that seldom happens.
Not to mention similar names create more difficulty. Do you want to purge someone who remove someone as Simon A. Voter and you received notice about a Simon Allen Voter? In that case probably, but there are all sorts of variations that people use and make it hard to figure out whether it’s the same person or not.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:59 am:
SB 172,the omnibus elections bill that passed last session included participation in the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), a national database initiative to provide state and local election authorities the tools needed to manage their data quality and redundancy issues so there are efforts already underway to work on this problem.
- D.P.Gumby - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:00 pm:
The facts have proven that “voting fraud” is subterfuge for “voter suppression”. Anyone not including that in a report is not “fair and balanced”…
- South Central - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:01 pm:
Yes, Republican-leaning states and Republican-voting counties within Illinois are highlighted in this news. Let him who is without vulnerability to voting fraud cast the first stone!
For me the important story is still low voter turnout and apathy.
- train111 - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:11 pm:
How come the people who complain about the bloated rolls are also the ones screaming loudest about limited size government and tax cuts. Purging the rolls requires manpower and money after all.
- illini - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:19 pm:
My county happens to be on the list.
Not certain how that could be because I can recall the list being purged probably 2 times in the last 10 years, and my precinct was cleaned up 2 years ago when the poling place was changed, yet I still have about 400 in my precinct.
I also know that, at least in my precinct, that the election workers note who has moved from the area or who have passed. Unfortunately, there are voters who appear on my list that neither I nor my counterpart know. I think much of this could be attributed to the SoS registering voters when they renew their licenses.
- A guy - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:22 pm:
=== @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 11:43 am:
“When do counties ever purge the rolls? Is that a thing?”
DuPage County does purges their rolls every 45 minutes or so.
– MrJM====
If that we’re true, they better start doing it every 10 minutes. I print up those precincts all the time and there are many people on them who don’t belong there anymore.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 12:56 pm:
PILF really? sounds like a joke.
- Threepwood - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 1:25 pm:
This reminds me of something that happens often in alternative medicine. Many alternative medicines and interventions (acupuncture, homeopathy, reiki, etc) have been overwhelmingly shown to not actually work. Evidence is still somewhat respected within medicine, so alt-med advocates continue to attempt to produce positive research results for alt-med efficacy. But because such results have proven extremely difficult to honestly and rigorously produce, one tactic that frequently occurs is to attempt to provide evidence for the mechanism of an alt-med intervention. That is, to study HOW acupuncture works, rather than whether or not it does work.
Most of the statistics and “evidence” I see thrown around by voter-fraud campaigners seems to be for mechanisms, rather than for the fraud itself.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 1:27 pm:
Willingness to commit a felony and take a flyer on a signature you’ve never seen to add one vote seems pretty stupid.
Old-school voter fraud wasn’t committed by individuals showing up in Groucho glasses pretending to be someone they were not, but by authorities in control of the voter apparatus voting those who didn’t show up after the polls closed.
That’s just one of the many reasons the voter ID movement is an obvious voter suppression effort. That, plus those that pushing it admit it is.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 1:54 pm:
===Not sure why more “registered” voters than population is a big deal===
Let me give you a theoretical example of why some people think it could be a “big deal”. Lets say that I have lived on the east side of North Austin Bl. then I would live in Chicago and would register with the Chicago Board of Elections. One day I decide to move and buy a new house across the street on the west side of North Austin Bl. I would then live in Oak Park and would register with the Cook County Board of Elections. Come election day I would be registered twice in one county. If the voter rolls have not been updated, it would then be possible for me to vote twice.
- Threepwood - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 2:02 pm:
The only people who think that possibility is an actual “big deal” are the people voter fraud campaigners are trying to con. They don’t even buy it themselves.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 2:10 pm:
So, do the counties bank the graveyard voters until such time when they really need them?
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 1, 15 @ 2:16 pm:
Other states have addressed this problem by having inactive voters automatically be dropped by the roles. I believe Iowa does it after 5 general elections without having cast any ballot for any election.
Concerns about disenfranchisement can be addressed by allowing same day registration.
Voter registration, in general, is something that should be uniform and not up to the many dozens of separate election authorities in the state. I think it’s ridiculous that I either need to visit the courthouse during business hours or meet with a Deputy registrar in person after scheduling an appointment in the county that I reside in just to register to vote.
There’s a lot of room for reform, but it will require stripping a lot of arbitrary authority from local election officials.
We have awful performance because we leave it up to local elected official who aside from any malfeasance may simply lack the budget to perform all of the job duties or even the technical expertise to manage a database.
- titan - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 8:05 am:
Anon @ 2:16 pm
Illinois eventually drops inactive voters from the voter rolls too. And Illinois offers mail-in and online registration now.
Speaking of people on the inactive voter lists, it looks like the group included them in the county figures.