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Illinois payroll revised upward by 73,800 jobs

Friday, Mar 11, 2016

* Greg Hinz

Newly released employment data undermines Gov. Bruce Rauner’s core argument in the state’s budget war: that Illinois’ economy is broken and requires major structural change in government.

The data suggest that while job growth here continues to lag the nation’s, it is considerably better than suggested in reports issued by Rauner’s Department of Employment Security and by the governor himself.

The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

* Buried in the IDES press release…

Each year, the BLS benchmarks nonfarm payroll estimates to universal counts derived primarily from unemployment insurance tax reports. This year, revisions conducted revealed that nonfarm payrolls grew by +88,000 in 2014 rather than +66,800 and jobs grew by +49,600 in 2015 rather declining by -3,000. Private nonfarm payrolls regained their January 2008 peak levels in July 2015. However, the BLS’ revisions in nonfarm payroll employment show Illinois is still short -16,800 jobs in reaching the January 2008 peak employment level.

* Back to Hinz

In other words, Illinois actually gained 138,000 jobs over the past two years, up 2.3 percent. That’s a bit over half the national rate in the same period, and 2015 nationally was the best year in decades for job gains.

But 138,000 new jobs arguably is a lot better than Rauner suggested when he ran against then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014.

* But it wasn’t all semi-good news, as Progress Illinois reports

Illinois’ unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3 percent in January, while the state added a net 1,500 jobs, the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) said Thursday.

The state’s jobless rate increased from 6.1 percent in December. There were 412,600 unemployed Illinoisans in January, a 3 percent increase from the previous month.

Illinois had a higher unemployment rate in January than the national figure of 4.9 percent. […]

“In January, the two industry sectors with the largest gains in employment were: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+3,600) and Educational and Health Services (+3,200),” reads an IDES news release. “The three industry sectors with the largest declines in employment were: Government (-2,600); Other Services (-2,100); and Financial Activities (-1,700). “

…Adding… From the Illinois Policy Institute…

Hi Rich,

I noticed your blog post on the BLS jobs revisions. This happens every spring to change previous years.

Greg Hinz’s article has some inaccuracies in it. In particular:

    The figures indicate Illinois did not lose jobs in 2015, as IDES previously reported, but in fact gained nearly 50,000. And it suggests that Rauner’s claim in his recent State of the State speech—that “Jobs and people are leaving our state. . . .We have fewer jobs today than we had at the turn of this century”—probably is not true.

Hinz is incorrect about the “turn of the century.” The revised data is available right on IDES website here. Illinois still has fewer jobs than at the turn of the century by 33,100. There are also still 16,800 fewer jobs than before the recession began.

Something similar happened last year, when the revised data was released in the spring of 2015, it was better than initially reported in 2014.

Further, the speculation of Gov. Rauner manipulating the data is a little weird, especially in regards to how this revised data was released. In general, the source for all this data is federal BLS numbers. The numbers used in IDES’ releases are from BLS and published the exact same on BLS’ site. And in this case, BLS hasn’t even put out the revised numbers yet, so IDES is putting out the revisions ahead of BLS.

We will publish more thoroughly on this when BLS releases data for all states on Monday. As of now, BLS has not updated their site to reflect the revisions for Illinois or any other states.

Michael Lucci
Vice President of Policy

Illinois Policy Institute
Illinois Policy Action

Agreed on the data manipulation stuff. IDES was simply using federal numbers.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


53 Comments
  1. - anon - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:26 pm:

    So we should settle for job growth being “a bit over half the national rate”?


  2. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:26 pm:

    –The data suggest that while job growth here continues to lag the nation’s, it is considerably better than suggested in reports issued by Rauner’s Department of Employment Security and by the governor himself.–

    Can you believe these haters? Anything that doesn’t fit the Death Spiral narrative gets buried.

    What makes this guy tick? Can you imagine, in the third act of your life, spending millions of dollars so Ken Dunkin can help you whack universities and social service providers?

    Bill and Melinda, they ain’t. Just creepy.


  3. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:27 pm:

    ===So we should settle===

    Don’t argue like a child. Nobody said that. Nobody.


  4. - Precinct Captain - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:31 pm:

    ==Private nonfarm payrolls regained their January 2008 peak levels in July 2015. However, the BLS’ revisions in nonfarm payroll employment show Illinois is still short -16,800 jobs in reaching the January 2008 peak employment level.===

    So the private sector is back on track, but not the public sector.


  5. - RNUG - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:34 pm:

    Having worked with these numbers (both federal and state) in the past, I always took the original numbers with a grain or two of salt, especially the federal ones in an election year. I always looked for the revisions the following quarter / year to update my charts.


  6. - cdog - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:38 pm:

    It looks like we are seeing evidence of the

    Quinn Recovery, and yes, the

    RAUNER RECESSION.

    We were gainin’ before we started losin’.

    (psst, Rauner. Your ideas are DOA and harming the Illinois economy. This doesn’t even factor in what the effects will be of $12,000,000,000 yoke you are putting around the neck of Illinois taxpayers. The only new variable is YOU.)


  7. - 13th - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:38 pm:

    This probably does not reflect all the not for profit human services yet and for sure does not reflect those human services employee doing one or two days a week for months


  8. - Magic carpet ride - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:38 pm:

    The Rs always said the income tax strangled job opportunity in our state. I think if the Rauner ressesion was not occuring this state wold have surpassed these numbers with the Quinn tax rate still in place. The foundation was started.


  9. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:39 pm:

    –So the private sector is back on track, but not the public sector.–

    The policy of the Rauner Administration is to bleed to death the public sector in Downstate Illinois.

    By willful actions, the governor lopped $150 million this year from SIU.

    That unprecedented nastiness has put people out of work and taken food off the table throughout Little Egypt and the Metro East.

    And unless you read the Capitol Fax, it’s unlikely that you even know that it’s happening.


  10. - Anon221 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:40 pm:

    At one time, not too long ago, Rauner wanted us to at least be average. so, this isn’t average enough? /s


  11. - Miami - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:42 pm:

    Agree with RNUG. The federal numbers are always being revised, sometimes back more than a couple of years. This is not out of the ordinary.


  12. - Markus57 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:43 pm:

    I might be a little off on the math but when cutting in about half, all those revenue growth projections touted by Nuding in the Senate Exec hearing the other day, Governor 1.4% may be more on the order of Governor


  13. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:44 pm:

    - Magic carpet ride - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:38 pm:

    The Rs always said the income tax strangled job opportunity in our state. I think if the Rauner ressesion was not occuring this state wold have surpassed these numbers with the Quinn tax rate still in place. The foundation was started.

    Job growth was stronger in 2015 than 2014. 2015 income tax was lower.


  14. - My button is broke... - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:45 pm:

    Governor Rauner likes to say that Illinois has less jobs than it did in 2000. I heard the same thing about Ohio, that they have less jobs now than they did in 2000. And I believe I’ve heard a lot of good things about their current Governor and how good his State is doing lately… Funny.


  15. - jerry 101 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:49 pm:

    Well, this just proves Bruce’s point. “Government? Who needs it, anyway?”


  16. - Daniel Plainview - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:52 pm:

    - Bill and Melinda, they ain’t. Just creepy. -

    Never was. Gates created something, added value to the economy, actually built and ran a business.

    Rauner did nothing of the sort.


  17. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:54 pm:

    ===Job growth was stronger in 2015 than 2014. 2015 income tax was lower.===

    88,000 in 2014 compared to 49,600 in 2015.

    On what planet is that 2014 number lower than 2015’s?


  18. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:54 pm:

    “- jerry 101 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:49 pm:

    Well, this just proves Bruce’s point. “Government? Who needs it, anyway?”

    The problem in Illinois is our government is very expensive. Our tax burden is tied for the 4th highest in the nation. I guarantee, we don’t have the 4th best state services. In fact, our state services are bad. We have bloated and over paid public workers.


  19. - Joe Schmoe - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:59 pm:

    So we’re replacing good manufacturing jobs with fast food counter help minimum wage paying jobs and everyone thinks that’s a success? There’s more of a fundamental problem here other than blaming the governor’s staff…especially by certain business paper columnists who should realize that a number of factors contribute to the demise of those jobs. Sure the raw job numbers may be better….but are they better jobs?


  20. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:03 pm:

    Joe Schmoe, our worker’s comp costs and union friendliness are killing manufacturing in Illinois. Also, our mix of manufacturing (mostly heavy equipment) has been hit hard by the global economic slowdown.


  21. - Sir Reel - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:04 pm:

    Rauner manipulates the job numbers to fit his ideology. So what else is new?


  22. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:05 pm:

    ^Illinois does not operate in a vacuum. Rauner gets this. Madigan either doesn’t or he doesn’t care. I personally think Madigan’s a smart man, he just doesn’t care as long as he controls the state government and enriches his cronies.


  23. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:06 pm:

    Nope, no manipulating. These numbers are fully vetted. There is always an annual redo this time of year. If anything, this proves to me, Rauner is on the right track.


  24. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:12 pm:

    ===our worker’s comp costs and union friendliness are killing manufacturing in Illinois.===

    Globalization and free trade agreements are killing manufacturing in Illinois.

    There. Fixed it.


  25. - Me too - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:17 pm:

    Right track? Growth going down. 2015 lower than 2014, who was governor in 2014 and what was the tax rate? Our services suck? Yes, they do, now. What was the backlog under Quinn? Were unis, social service providers and the pension ramp paid? Yeah, we’re on the right track Tone. The numbers were adjusted up, that doesn’t mean we’re getting better, it means we did better than we thought. You know, with that 12 billion we could have created 240,000 50k jobs over this past year. Instead, we squandered it because the governor can’t count to 60 and 30.


  26. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:18 pm:

    Thank you Greg Hinz and Rich Miller for shedding light on this. The Republicans have been bad mouthing Illinois for too long. And Illinois Policy Institute. Manufacturing is leaving America because of currency manipulation. donald trump is the one that said he wouldn’t move his manufacturing back here until currency manipulation ended. He didn’t mention workers’ compensation.


  27. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:24 pm:

    Here we go with Trump support. America at the precipice of fascism.


  28. - Markus57 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:26 pm:

    So maybe it’s really Governor “Less Than 1 percent” defining #winning.


  29. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:29 pm:

    Over 79,000 more jobs in 2015 without a state budget. Keep up the fight Governor.


  30. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:32 pm:

    Remember when the Obama administration gave the September 2012 jobs report, obviously right before the election, and said 114,000 jobs were added and the unemployment dropped from 8.1 to 7.8%?

    Clearly that is impossible unless……..a very large number of people drop out of the labor force. And remarkably that was the claim, and presto, and unemployment rate under 8%.


  31. - Team Warwick - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:40 pm:

    The elusive Dept. Of State Chair Attendance was probably involved in the hokey numbers, we really arent sure how many of those jobs got into the total counts by not paying admission.


  32. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:46 pm:

    ===our worker’s comp costs and union friendliness are killing manufacturing in Illinois.===

    The brilliant Train111 (who should not be such a stranger here) has recently recounted in real-time how his company has methodically moved its manufacturing components to Juarez.

    Do you know of Juarez? The place where Bobby and Johnny took wrong turns out of El Paso with Juanitas on their laps?

    Juarez, where the only crews more murdery than the gangsters are the police and the army?

    Please explain: if Juarez is an attractive option to manufacturers, how should Illinois “compete” with that?

    Get over yourself on your view that Illinois is some free-standing “economy,” and that turning a few knobs in Springfield can create the formation of private capital.

    Education. Infrastructure. Public safety. Rule of law. That’s what state government can do for the state “economy.”

    How’s Gov. Vario doing on those fronts, you think?


  33. - Blue dog dem - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:55 pm:

    47th@2:12. I hate it when I agree with you so much.


  34. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:57 pm:

    I agree, Illinois is does not operate in an economic vacuum. It must compete nationally and globally. Notice both Wisconsin and Indiana have growing manufacturing.


  35. - Miami - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:02 pm:

    47th,
    Then globalization and free trade are killing manufacturing everywhere in America. Yet, we do worse than other states, and have for some time.

    Try again. Why? And you should come up with an answer that doesn’t apply to all states.


  36. - Lucky Pierre - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:10 pm:

    The Governor and his budget director Nuding stated the nation has gained 12 million jobs and Illinois has lost 100,000 jobs since 2000 but last years numbers jobs numbers come in 50,000 higher. How does that mean his claim is probably not true? A little context would be nice in terms of average wages of the jobs lost and gained. I am sure the manufacturing sector which typicall has relatively high wages would state that Illinois needs reform.


  37. - Markus57 - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:12 pm:

    At the risk of repeating a comment made late yesterday, but relevant as real numbers replace those used to support the Turnaround Agenda’s ideological crusade.

    After watching the entire Senate Exec hearing the other day, my take is the governor’s guys have a better understanding of the budget lines than the Dems in the room. Otherwise Nuding never gets away with deflecting the line item veto question for FY 2016 by blaming it on statutory transfers. Nuding implies the uncommitted funding isn’t sufficient to even attempt the line item veto exercise. The truth of the matter is that the funding is there. It’s just that the cuts are deep and would require that somebody take the arrows of outrage from the public. The governor has apparently changed his mind about standing up and doing that. The same can be said for the unbalanced FY2017 budget submitted. Easy pickings to set the other side straight if you are prepared for the discussion with a working knowledge of the budget, easy to be fooled and even ridiculed for bringing up the topic (as Nuding did) if you’re not.

    Now that the employment numbers reduce the lost growth cost to a fractional budget value, what’s left, other than unmeasurable ideology, to support holding so many hostages?

    Oh yea, primaries! Ugh.


  38. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:13 pm:

    Miami,

    Is it because Governor Rauner doesn’t promote Illinois products? Or is it because he bad mouths the economy? Is it because DCEO is just a shell organization that doesn’t promote our state?


  39. - wordslinger - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:20 pm:

    –Notice both Wisconsin and Indiana have growing manufacturing.–

    Notice what? You haven’t referenced any data, Pointdexter.

    The fact is, Illinois’ manufacturing base is larger and growing faster than both Indiana and Wisconsin.

    Have at it, Einstein.

    http://www.nam.org/Data-and-Reports/State-Manufacturing-Data/


  40. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:20 pm:

    A quick look at manufacturing in Illinois on BLS web page, comparing now to five years ago:

    Q3 2010 563,541 manufacturing employees
    Q3 2015 579,363 manufacturing employees

    Q3 2010 18,964 manufacturing establishments
    Q3 2015 20,216 manufacturing establishments.


  41. - 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:22 pm:

    Illinois is top five in the nation for manufacturing employees and manufacturing establishments.


  42. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:28 pm:

    And we are to trust any job numbers put out by the Obama administration???

    Hilarious


  43. - 360 Degree Turnaround - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:32 pm:

    Yeah, I bet Obama is pouring over BLS data to manipulate it.


  44. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:40 pm:

    Election season 360. That says it all.


  45. - Michelle Flaherty - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:50 pm:

    Nice to see the IPI folks coming to the defense of their boss. Rauner press shop take the day off?


  46. - lake county democrat - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:58 pm:

    Another story about jobs without the context of wages. I expect better of Greg. The story of the Great Recession and it’s now ancient “recovery” is one of good jobs being replaced by bad. That may not relate directly to Rauner’s “job loss” claims, but it’s part of any real measure of how the state is doing.


  47. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:01 pm:

    Miami, in case you haven’t noticed, Rich has two, count ‘em two, caption contests going right now. I don’t have time to spoon feed you facts and information that your non-persuadable, ideologically driven mind will process let alone understand.

    Plus, Wordslinger and others have provided plenty already. Arguing with some of you is a waste of time. Your minds are made up.

    Plus, I’m totally killing it in the caption contests.


  48. - Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:04 pm:

    ===Plus, I’m totally killing it in the caption contests. ===

    Meh.

    lol


  49. - 47th Ward - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:10 pm:

    Laugh it up Miller. It’s called “free content” and you own it now.

    PS: you’re welcome.


  50. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:19 pm:

    U6 unemployment 10.1%


  51. - Tone - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:20 pm:

    Wisconsin is growing manufacturing jobs so is Indiana. It’s publically available. You are too lazy to look it up. More head in the sand from the usual suspects.


  52. - cdog - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:41 pm:

    The relevant context for these economic questions is what has happened since Rauner quit paying the bills, July 1, 2015.

    We know for a fact the Illinois economy will be $12billion short on June 30. (minus any out of state vendors.)

    Hospitals, schools, etc …. $12billion less to work with.

    http://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/illinois.htm

    This link shows month by month the degrading of the Illinois job picture, since July 2015. Many, many sectors have FEWER employees.

    This is on Rauner’s watch. This is the beginning of Rauner’s Recession.


  53. - Ghost - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:57 pm:

    any tally on how many jobs lost from the state not payin its bills? both direct and i direct from the loss of spending.

    on the turn of the century job loss…. the state had 84000 employees in 2000, and roughly 64000 today…. so 20,000 of those fewer jobs are attrbutable to the state reducing employees…. so the job loss comes from the state failing to replace its workers more then anything…..


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