69 Comments - Illannoyed - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:01 am: I’ve believed this for years. Voters frequently want incompatible outcomes. There’s lots of magical thinking involved. - @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:02 am: “Steadfast insistence on the untenable high-service/low-tax status quo gave the politicians permission to drive the vehicle of state to the edge of the cliff, where it teeters today on the brink.” For many, the notion that we are still teetering on the brink is wishful thinking. – MrJM - Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:03 am: That “followership deficit” thing is exactly what Trump is counting — and Rauner continues to count — on. It’s the low-info/followership deficit voters that (continue to) drive the gridlock here (certainly) and (most likely) nationally. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:03 am: Well, of course. And the historic, bipartisan path of least resistance to reconcile the voters contradictory desires was to short pension contributions. - pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:04 am: =It’s because they also believe government is so corrupt that we wouldn’t need to pay more in taxes if we just had proper management that weeds out the waste and fraud.= We see comments here daily that bear this out. Sometimes from trolls, sometimes not. - Beenthereseenthat - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:07 am: The truth hurts. Reminds me of the book about New York City’s financial meltdown in the late 1970’s. A book titled “The Streets Were Paved With Gold” chronicled the city’s plight. In Illinois, with a decreasing population, the higher Ed schools, at least most of them, acted like the good times were going to last forever. The same was true for most State agencies. We’ve maxed out on our credit cards folks and we need to cut the spending. - Saluki - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:11 am: Champagne Dreams on a beer budget, with a maxed out credit card and no job prospects. - Delimma - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:12 am: @Beenthereseenthat - We have a decreasing population of the exact population that generates revenue, while the percentage of the population that remains that happens to require higher service levels hasn’t gone down, but up. At some point, we all accept that a McDonalds value meal no longer costs $3.59, but is now upwards of $7.00. Things just cost more. - Alexander Cut The Knot - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:13 am: Duh! But,lets forget who drew the district maps to corral voters who perpetuate our leaders in office. You can blame democracy generally when the people actually get to draw those maps. How much of Chicago’s new property ax increase is going to fund services - maybe a 10th? Higher taxes will not result in higher services. Voters know a general tax increase is often less than half devoted to actually improving or, more often, just maintaining service. It is not high service / low-tax, it is high-tax / low-return. - pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:13 am: =We’ve maxed out on our credit cards folks and we need to cut the spending.= One could also argue that we need to pay the bill. I think you’re helping confirm the reports conclusion. Arguing that we should simply “cut the spending” without identifying exactly what we’re spending and where to cut rings hollow. In fact about as hollow as suggesting that we’ll fix the problem with “reforms”. - Delimma - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:15 am: To the post, it seems obvious to me that I can’t run my household budget with ever escalating expenses, while refusing to accept a raise. I also can’t demand better benefits from my employer if I refuse to take the new job’s responsibilities. - Anon - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:16 am: More research showing that the George Carlin principle still holds true. It would have been helpful, though, if at least some of the elected leaders had taken a position of informing the body politic rather than the tendency to appeal to all of their desires. You could let your kids eat cake for every meal, and they would be thrilled, but at the end of the day we don’t just blame the kid for their diabetes. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:17 am: ==We’ve maxed out on our credit cards folks and we need to cut the spending.== Too late for that as the only solution. - DeKalb Guy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:17 am: Beenthereseenthat’s comments made without a hint of irony. - Delimma - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:19 am: I’m pretty sure the majority of US House of Representative seats have voters “corralled” to protect an existing majority. Perhaps a good solution would be to enact independent bipartisan controlled redistricting throughout the country at all levels. It seems a little disingenuous for either party to only ask for it in states where they have a minority. - DuPage - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:20 am: Part of Rauner’s campaign was he could increase K-12 spending, balance the budget, AND have taxes drop down from 5%. All this from “just reducing waste and fraud”. It was impossible of course, but it was enough to get some votes and it drew attention away from the anti-union agenda. - Johnny Pyle Driver - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:20 am: Don’t blame me, I voted for Kodos - Fusion - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:22 am: ==Higher taxes will not result in higher services.== Nor should they. We need higher taxes to pay the bill from the previous services we’ve already consumed, while also maintaining services for those that need them in the present. We have a huge bill backlog and a massive pension hole. And it’s not like those in need just stop being in need because we’re in a cash crunch. - Ahoy! - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:23 am: In our defense, elections are about choices and we have not had very good choices. But yes, Illinois folks believe we should have very high cost services, pensions and pork projects and not have to pay for it. That idea is shared from Chicago to Cairo. - illini97 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:23 am: I have to agree with pundent here. “cut the spending” and “reforms” are buzzwords. Unless you’ve got specifics statutes/programs and numbers, I’m done listening. And if “fraud, waste and abuse” reductions can save money, by all means identify it and show me the savings. I just don’t believe it’s there in the quantity some believe. - Fusion - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:26 am: ==it was enough to get some votes and it drew attention away from the anti-union agenda.== Rauner won because Quinn was a disaster. People didn’t vote for Rauner. They voted against Quinn. And no, Quinn will not be the nominee in 2018. - AC - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:33 am: Other voters may want contradictory and unsustainable things, but I’m one voter arguing for austerity. That means higher taxes, cuts in spending and limited spending growth, along with debt restructuring and a short, medium and long term plan to get out of this mess. I also don’t like the fact that Illinois is not that far behind California as being a significant net contributor to the federal government, so I don’t want to see cuts so severe they cost us significant amounts of federal money. I also know that some cuts will cost us more, a social safety net merely doesn’t merely help us take care of our most vulnerable, it saves us money in the long run. In other words, we need a balanced approach and a plan. Otherwise, a recession or a natural disaster could leave the state unable to afford it’s most basic functions. The longer we put off the day of reckoning, the higher the tax increase will be, and the less effective that tax increase will be. I continue to fear a short term solution involving a tax increase too small, insufficient spending cuts, and an unwillingness to capitalize on historically low interest rates to restructure our debt. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:37 am: “It’s because they also believe government is so corrupt that we wouldn’t need to pay more in taxes if we just had proper management that weeds out the waste and fraud.” I hear this from many people. I also hear that there’s all this tax money that’s coming in, but corrupt politicians are hoarding it. I ask for fact-based examples and don’t get anything that supports their contentions. I’m glad also that voters are being blamed. I respectfully offer that in a democracy, voters are not sancrosanct and are not above reproach Many are to blame for our current fiscal mess, regardless of political party. It’s sad to me and maddening that our governor and his super-wealthy supporters are relentlessly seeking to fix these problems disproportionately on the backs of unions and workers without including themselves in the sacrifice. The voters support taxing millionaires at higher rates than everyone else, but Rauner went nuts in his opposition to this. - Sangamo Sam - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:38 am: “Our data support the argument that the voters themselves bear significant responsibility for the current debt crisis and gridlocked government.” True we voted for these folks, but the argument that we gave them tacit permission to screw things up so badly just lets these people off the hook and allows more of the same behavior. Leaders are supposed to lead and explain our choices. Statesmen are supposed to meet, talk and compromise. I don’t remember the “What we need now is gridlock” campaign, but I still feel the sucker punch. - Cassandra - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:39 am: Well, in a state which recently sent two consecutive governors to jail, it’s not surprising that not only those pesky “low information” voters but voters in general are skeptical about giving more money to Illinois state government. Mismanagement and corruption didn’t end when Blagojevich started serving at the penitentiary. Indeed, one could say that ethics legislation notwithstanding, not much has changed at all. - illini97 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:39 am: AC, +1 - Bigtwich - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:42 am: I wonder when Professor Jackson interviewed Beenthereseenthat? - Jason Horwitz - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:44 am: I don’t think I buy this. Voters in every state always put pressure on politicians to keep taxes low and provide high-quality and more services. That doesn’t explain the unprecedented inability to pass a budget in Illinois. What’s different? I could be more convinced by a structural or institutional explanation, but don’t claim to have a fully-formed theory on this myself. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:53 am: C’mon, has any candidate other than Pat Quinn 2014 run on a tax increase? It’s not like the voters have a lot of choices. - ChicagoVinny - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:54 am: I agree with Jason that I don’t see voters wanting a lot of services and low taxes as unique to Illinois. Four past governors in jail is, though, and I think the corruption angle has a lot to do with it. I have a lot of friends who wave off any proposal due to their conviction the state and city governments are fully corrupt. The counter-argument that “yes, there’s corruption, but these problems are structural and bigger than that” are not persuasive - and I can’t really blame them. - Juvenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:55 am: As I said yesterday, research from the Frameworks Institute shines light on the problem, and lights a way to the solution. According to their research, voter’s literally do not understand the connection between government goals, programs, spending, and taxes. According to the research from the Frameworks Institute, you are wrong: 1. Budgets and taxes are disconnected concepts. The people we interviewed were overwhelmingly unable to link these concepts and even those who saw some connection, for example, that spending is linked to revenue, were unable to elaborate or use this relationship generatively. Informants stumbled again and again in both directly connecting the concepts and in more indirect tasks of narrating situations, explaining decisions and solving problems that required the integration of the two concepts. - Jocko - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:58 am: This reminds me when Sugar Grove voters approved a public library, but rejected funds for operating expenses. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:58 am: ==We have a decreasing population of the exact population that generates revenue, while the percentage of the population that remains that happens to require higher service levels hasn’t gone down, but up.== The fastest and only growing age demographic in Illinois is of the retirement age. All other age groups are on the decline. So Illinois’ only population “growth sector” is exempt from state income taxes. Does the report specifically call out senior citizens’ “steadfast insistence on the untenable high-service/low-tax status quo” as well? - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:05 am: Blaming our state’s woes on corruption is an easy out; that way you don’t have to take a stand on either taxes or popular programs. Rauner took this a step further by claiming his reforms will provide the needed revenue to erase the debt, though he can’t explain how. But, this is beside the point. His true mission is to eliminate collective bargaining and the influence of unions in state politics. This goal will not solve Illinois’ budget problem. The only people that benefit are Rauner and his wealthy friends. The rest of us can look to Kansas to see our future. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:09 am: ==Jason Horwitz - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 9:44 am: I don’t think I buy this. Voters in every state always put pressure on politicians to keep taxes low and provide high-quality and more services. That doesn’t explain the unprecedented inability to pass a budget in Illinois. What’s different?== Maybe that in Illinois, fiscal and program reality counts for very little, and it’s really all about politics and the next election. Our pols are world class at winning elections; governing, not so much. If you have lived elsewhere or even just talk to friends and relatives in other places, this comes through loud and clear. - Cassandra - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:11 am: Good point, City Zen. And it goes to Jason’s point above. I don’t care for any of our state’s leading pols of both parties, but I do believe these leaders are operating under serious structural constraints. These include not only the exclusion of pension/defined comp income of any amount from state taxation but also the flat income tax, which protects the rich and targets a shrinking middle class. No doubt there are other constraints I haven’t thought of. Illinois is so not a 21st century state. We specialize in hiding from the future. - ANONIME - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:15 am: City Zen - only retirement income (all, not just state workers) is exempt from state income taxes. Any other income in retirement is taxed at the state level. Also, retirement income, including social security for some, is taxed at the federal level. So, any federal dollars flowing to Illinois is paid in part by the retirement age people you are so quick to blame for all the problems. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:17 am: ===in Illinois, fiscal and program reality counts for very little=== Lay out that fiscal and program reality for us, if you don’t mind, Anonymous - Old Shepherd - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:19 am: I believe the Federalists predicted this about 225 years ago. - Ghost - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:25 am: It should be noted that Rauner played on this very point, how many times did he promise to not increase taxes by cuttng waste and fraud??? For example his 500 million he was going to save by ending waste at CMS…. so Rauner himself had made the public beleive the money is there…. i would note that CMS and Rauners new IT agncy cost more then the single cms w/ IT cost. so no 500 mil in savings and he actually increased overhead and costs…. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:34 am: ==C’mon, has any candidate other than Pat Quinn 2014 run on a tax increase?== Dawn Clark Netsch, 1994. Proposed an income tax hike from 3% to 4.25% (with some sort of property tax reduction). Edgar the Mediator won and ramped his way into the history books. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:40 am: Let’s get a petition/proposition system like California has and get rid of gerrymandering, then blame the voters. Another example: say voters got the term limits they wanted: maybe their elected pols would be more willing to buck party leaders or make a bolder vote (esp. if they were in their last term). - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 10:46 am: ===Dawn Clark Netsch, 1994=== Jim Edgar, 1990. He ran and promised to keep the then-temporary tax hike permanent. Neil Hartigan promised to let it expire. Netsch’s plan was a swap: trade a higher income tax for lower property taxes. Edgar savaged her plan in ads, then adopted it once he was re-elected. The plan died a slow and painful death in the General Assembly and was never spoken of again. - City Zen - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:02 am: ANONIME - I’m not blaming retired folks, I’m merely pointing out the demographics. When the fastest growing segment of your state income tax base is not taxed, how can you expect to increase revenue? - West Sider - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:27 am: *(T)hey also believe government is so corrupt that we wouldn’t need to pay more in taxes if we just had proper management that weeds out the waste and fraud.* Gee- Wonder where that gem of magical thinking comes from? Maybe the fiscally rock-solid Tribune (gutted by Zell) and SUN-TIMES (first fleeced by Rupert Murdock). Neither is any position to pontificate about fiscal probity. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:35 am: Thanks for the reminders on the Netsch/Edgar tax swaps, err hikes. Although Edgar didn’t campaign on the swap/hike, that was post election. I did not recall the make the income tax increase permanent campaign, I guess because I was young, broke, and stupid at the time. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:37 am: @City Zen, when income inequality is at record highs it’s best to follow the money and tax the rich through a graduated tax structure, rather than an increasing number of grandparents on a fixed income. - ANONIME - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:38 am: City Zen - I’m not against taxing retirement income above a certain level, say 50,000. but, don’t tax from the first dollar. there are a lot of retired people (including state retirees) that don’t get even that much. Also, keep in mind the large retirement amounts for state employees that are always quoted, come from the legislature, judges, etc., not the normal working people who keep the services everyone counts on running. - Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:42 am: AC There are 50 states, some of them are going to be significant net contributors to the federal government, while others are significant net takers. That’s what happens when 50 states join together for the good of all. Or with insurance policies. Illinois is one of the biggest states in population, and in size. What surprises you about being a net contributor? You think all 50 states should be net takers? - Beenthereseenthat - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:45 am: So Dilemma, do we keep raising taxes without reducing costs? Yes, things cost more than 25 years ago, but there is only a limited amount of money to tap from a tax base and our population growth is stagnant. We need to re-examine our budget costs, eliminate duplication and move forward. And if that means closing or reimagining a university or two, so be it. We’ve closed most mental health facilities to allow community based care. No I am not equating high Ed with that clientele. But community colleges have matured and are capable of providing community education needs for workplace needs. Do we really need philosophy degrees in 8 or 10 State universities? - JB13 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 11:46 am: Anyone who believes raising taxes alone will get us out of this mess is just as naive as the “waste-and-fraud” crowd. The answer is likely much more far-reaching, and much more painful, than most want to admit. The rub is making sure EVERYONE sees their need to share in the pain, not just the ones stuck with the bill. - Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:07 pm: AC.Well said. I am a cart before the horse guy. I demand spending cuts and reduced services before willingly accepting tax increases - ZC - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:23 pm: The only other point here, is it’s people’s desire to put off tough choices plus an IL Constitution that “locks in” their irresponsible choices and makes it impossible to correct later. We can’t cut a lot of the spending and not can we raise key progressive taxes. It’s kind of the fiscal equivalent of global warming. People I the future will blame “conniving politicians” for it but in reality it was folks who didn’t want to pay extra gas taxes and we’re fine lumping it all on future generations. And when the bill comes due it is impossible to go back and correct. - pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 12:48 pm: Okay - And after you’ve come to the realization that much of this is required by law and consent decrees what spending cuts and reduced services are you advocating for? If you can’t articulate that then your kind of proving the whole point of the report. - AC - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:04 pm: Thoughts matter - I’d like to see Illinois come closer to breaking even than we do. The problem is stated in this article, “some states are getting way more in return for their federal tax dollars, but the disproportionate amount of federal aid that some states receive allows them to keep their own taxes artificially low”. We appear to be in the bottom 3 states, receiving far less than $1 from the feds from every $1 we pay to the feds. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/ - Noitall - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:09 pm: ==It would have been helpful, though, if at least some of the elected leaders had taken a position of informing the body politic rather than the tendency to appeal to all of their desires.== Regardless of what kind of job anyone thinks Quinn did as governor, he did tell the public during his last campaign that the state’s bills had come due and needed to be paid through higher taxes. We all know where that got him. Maybe it was because people thought he had six years to show he knew how to govern and failed. But I think Rauner won because Quinn finally spoke the truth to the electorate and they didn’t want to hear it. Everyone is always talking about how they wish politicians were honest, but when one finally is, they kick him out of office. - Percival - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:21 pm: It is thinking conditioned over decades by the political class in Illinois, who repeatedly taught that something for nothing really exists, and somebody else pays. The voters back them still, holding on to the delusion, and dutifully head to the polls. Ultimately, the middle class has been betrayed by leaders who traded the future away for present personal power (and profit). Now those leaders are gone, or nearly so, heading off to enjoy their riches, while leaving the bills. Greece on the prairie. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:22 pm: Hooray for the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute… most of us have voted for at least one of these governors. Surely, the jail birds haven’t helped. What is more difficult to say, is that the ILGOP’s determination to be the anti-tax party come what may, is the elephant in the room. Some hate Madigan so much because he won’t play into their hands and he demands Republican votes on any tax increase. - James Knell - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:26 pm: opps… Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 1:22 pm: is mine. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 2:10 pm: POGO: We have met the enemy and he is us. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 2:36 pm: “Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax that fellow behind the tree!” Sen. Russell B. Long - Skeptic - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 2:39 pm: So let me ask this: If we’re the problem, how are term limits going to solve it? - City Zen - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:41 pm: ==Regardless of what kind of job anyone thinks Quinn did as governor, he did tell the public during his last campaign that the state’s bills had come due and needed to be paid through higher taxes.== But Quinn sold it as “temporary”. A temporary fix like a temporary tax increase implies a temporary problem. For the ordinary taxpayer, the perception was Quinn’s plan would pay the overdue bills and that the budget going forward would be re-sized to fit the new tax rate of 3.75%. In essence, the 5% hike was breathing room or a 4-year window to right the ship and prepare for the new world at 3.75% in 2015. We now know that certainly wasn’t Quinn’s intent. But it’s what voters perceived would happen. Hence das boot. I’m not saying that was the right perception, merely the byproduct of enacting a temporary fix to a continuing problem. - Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:59 pm: wow- one of the best things I’ve read in a while. Echoes what you’ve been saying on here for a while about the disconnect Rich. - South Illinoisian - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 3:59 pm: People want nice schools and roads, police and fire protection ut they don’t want to pay for it. - Shytown - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 4:06 pm: This is perhaps one of the best pieces of research to come from a wonk group in years. Kudos. - Mama - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 4:32 pm: ==”If we do not live in a fact-based world—in which the voters take an interest in government and acquire basic knowledge about the issues and the candidates—then only emotion, fear, and prejudice will prevail in our elections. There is ample evidence of such motivations dominating the voting of many millions of Americans in the current election cycle.”== It is time for the voters to wake up and start educating oneself on the issues that need to be addressed, and research what the candidate really thinks about those issues you care about. You won’t find your answers from their political TV ads. - Mama - Wednesday, Jun 15, 16 @ 4:33 pm: “POGO: We have met the enemy and he is us.” RNUG you are 100% correct. - titan - Thursday, Jun 16, 16 @ 7:16 am: Everyone wants low taxes and good services. But Illinois voters bought into a very obvious ponzie scheme for decades. The pyramid scheme is now collapsing Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.