You might think that months of bipartisan cooperation on numerous criminal justice reform bills would make that particular topic off-limits for partisan campaigns this year.
You’d be wrong.
Gov. Bruce Rauner announced early last year that he wants the state to reduce its prison population by 25 percent over 10 years. He has since signed numerous pieces of legislation during the past year or so to help achieve that goal, including recently when he signed the marijuana decriminalization bill into law.
For the most part, House Democrats kept their members who are targeted for defeat by Republicans off those bills. The move was both defensive (to protect their incumbents who represent tight districts from accusations that they are “soft on criminals”) and, as it turns out, offensive.
“In southern Illinois, we value the safety of our neighbors, friends and families,” begins a recent TV ad by Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion. “So why would anyone want to weaken penalties for dangerous criminals? Dave Severin’s biggest supporter wants to let 25 percent of the state’s prisoners loose into our communities.”
Severin’s “biggest supporter” is obviously Rauner, via his massive $11 million in contributions to the Illinois Republican Party so far this cycle. The state party has funneled much of that cash ($5.9 million as of last week) to the House Republican Organization, according to numbers compiled by Scott Kennedy at Illinois Election Data. Bradley’s opponent, Severin, reported raising just $9,335 in the second quarter, but HRO has been running ads on his behalf since early June.
So the Severin campaign’s recent denial that its “biggest supporter” (which it claims is actually HRO) has no such position on releasing prisoners is nonsense. But its claim that Bradley’s ad is reminiscent of the infamous 1988 “Willie Horton” advertisement is pretty close to being true. Horton, you will recall, was given a weekend furlough from a Massachusetts prison and didn’t come back. In the meantime, he committed murder, armed robbery and rape. The Democratic presidential nominee in 1988 was Michael Dukakis, who was governor at the time of Horton’s escape. He supported the furlough program and was ultimately blamed for Horton’s rampage in a devastating ad that benefited President George H.W. Bush.
Unlike the Horton spot, Bradley’s ad doesn’t mention any specific crimes committed by released prisoners. But there was hope in some circles that these sorts of ads would become a thing of the past in Illinois. A newspaper op-ed co-written by Sen. Kwame Raoul earlier this year cited poll results showing 74 percent of Illinoisans believe our criminal justice system is “broken.”
“While some have questioned whether Gov. Rauner’s goal to reduce incarceration by 25 percent is politically achievable,” Raoul wrote, “it turns out that the voters actually support far-reaching policies that can make a real difference in reducing the number of persons held in Illinois’ prisons.”
Indeed, another poll conducted recently for the Rauner-allied Illinois Policy Institute found that 56 percent of Illinoisans believe that the criminal justice system is “unfair.” And more than 80 percent said politicians should support criminal justice reforms “such as community supervision, mandatory drug testing and treatment programs—instead of prison—that reduce the likelihood the offender would commit a new crime.”
“A generation of candidates for public office have come of age worried about being the subject of a ‘Willie Horton’ advertisement,” Raoul wrote in that March 15 op-ed with Republican state Sen. Karen McConnaughay. “Now it seems that we have public support, political agreement and momentum on our side to fix our broken criminal justice system.”
So, if this TV barrage is successful, will it halt the governor’s policy momentum?
Raoul told me last week he hoped it wouldn’t. But, he warned, it “ain’t going to be easy” to pass more comprehensive legislation as it is, so he’s worried about the potential impact.
Incumbents who are targeted for defeat are rarely part of a controversial “solution” in Springfield—and Bradley has most definitely become a target since Rauner’s election. The heavy lifting at the Statehouse is usually done by those who don’t have to worry too much about electoral opposition. Rauner’s vast cash reserves can help comfort wary Republicans, and it’s highly doubtful that “safe” Democrats will ever draw a primary opponent over an issue like this.
Political organizations always use what works best in campaigns, and this issue apparently polls well enough to include it in a TV spot, so that just might give some folks pause if Bradley wins and the issue is successfully deployed in other legislative campaigns. Let’s hope not.
- Anon221 - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 9:21 am:
“So, if this TV barrage is successful, will it halt the governor’s policy momentum?”
Perhaps, but what may be a more significant factor in halting the policy momentum, is what Rauner has chosen to do to the social services safety nets throughout the state. Hopefully the Commission working on criminal justice reform is looking at that, and not living in a silo.
- Delimma - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 9:23 am:
As a person born and raised in Southern Illinois, I have watched decades of campaigns run by “conservatives” using scare tactics. Oh, he’s from Kenya! You’re going to have a death panel! Whitewater! Swiftboat!
Frankly, this is tame compared to those. While it would be nice if everyone played fair and didn’t pull crap like this, it would be a mistake to unilaterally disarm.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 9:41 am:
He’ll never be AG (or whatever else) John Bradley with ads like this. But with Rauner, the idea is you’ve got to fight for survival with anything and everything you can because that’s the way he’s attacking.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 9:45 am:
To the Post,
The tradeoff has always been for the Rauner Administration the idea of doing these much needed reforms may help in Cook and the Collars, but might be damaging downstate and southern Illinois. I’m sure the thought also revolved around two other points that were weighed. One, that if numbers did go down in conservative districts downstate and southern Illinois, the slide would not be as damaging as it could be, and two, the monetary investments in downstate and southern Illinois districts early on will blunt and dull the “weak on crime” mantra these Republican challengers and some incumbents.
I have to believe with the large sums of money being spent and the inoculations early on with monies on other issues, there is the chance Rauner will be successful.
The only real fear isn’t this issue, I’d have to think the overall linkage to Rauner is a greater fear than the one issue linkage as a stand-alone issue this is. The push us going to be to make Democrats fight off their “Chicago” connections, as “weak” as they are or as “strong as they seem”.
Most downstate and southern Illinois Democratic members and challengers fit better with the districts they’re running, and trying to be as “unique” as they can… with cookie-cutter “we are you” responses and campaigns, so we’ll see if piling on GOP candidates in both downstate and southern Illinois districts can stay on the Raunerite messaging, but still seem in tune with these districts they are running in with counter attacks like these.
We’ll see.
And by “we’ll see”, I’m also eluding to the barrage of ads Rauner will be running, and the framing ads Democrats will use in their own framings.
- Doug Simpson - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 10:02 am:
Does everyone understand that Tax Dollars keep the Downstate Republican Patronage havens open? And fully stocked with Union Employees?
I thought Bruce wanted to break the unions.
Oh wait, thats just the Teachers.
- Way Way Down Here - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 10:03 am:
The saturation of these ads has reached past annoying into the meaningless stage. Often there are several in a row everyday all-day. Seconds ago, I heard an anti-Bradley ad using the “illegals” spin. At some point I think people will quit listening.
- walker - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 10:30 am:
The one area where almost everyone would give credit to both parties in the legislature and to the governor, is baby steps in criminal justice reform. Too bad the voting public still responds to a “soft on crime” attack.
- LessAnon? - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 11:29 am:
One might say Bradley has been a bit of a “wallflower” on this issue.
- Elliott Ness - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:43 pm:
Good hit, Severn need to distance himself from being pro-crime
- Red eft - Monday, Aug 22, 16 @ 2:55 pm:
As a liberal democrat, I cannot stomach my democratic state legislators–Gary Forby and Brandon Phelps. They both are opposed to many things I support and solicit the NRA voters. (No surprise for this part of the state). I usually leave my ballot blank on these races, but this year, because I do not want to do anything to strengthen Rauner, I will hold my nose and vote for them. I think reducing the prison population is one of the few good ideas Rauner has–but he will not achieve it unless social services can get the support they need.
- Lynn S. - Tuesday, Aug 23, 16 @ 9:41 am:
The ad may be despicable, but the reality is that a lot of folks down South are within 2-3 degrees (not 6) of another person who is employed at a prison or a local jail that rents space to out-of-county or out-of-state prisoners. They may support judicial reform in theory, but they also know the local impact of the prison-industrial complex.