We’re bleeding out
Thursday, Mar 23, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Of the country’s 10 largest cities, the Chicago metropolitan statistical area was the only one to drop in population between 2015 and 2016. The region, defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, includes the city and suburbs and extends into Wisconsin and Indiana.
The Chicago metropolitan area as a whole lost 19,570 residents in 2016, registering the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country. It’s the area’s second consecutive year of population loss: In 2015, the region saw its first decline since at least 1990, losing 11,324 people… [Cook County] in 2016 had the largest loss of any county nationwide, losing 21,324 residents.
Experts say the pattern goes beyond just the Chicago region. For the third consecutive year, Illinois lost more residents than any other state in 2016, losing 37,508 people, according to U.S. census data released in December.
Nearly all the cities that lost population in 2016 are located in the Midwest or northern parts of the country. Those cities, which are in smaller metropolitan areas, include St. Louis, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.
* Related…
* Sangamon County population up from 2010 to 2016 — by 34
* Could vacant state jobs be moved to Springfield?
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 11:52 am:
Yep, I’m probably next. Property taxes up $3k in 10 years, soda tax, bag tax, bullet tax, 10.25% sales tax, list goes on and on.
- RIJ - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 11:53 am:
Thank you Governor Rauner. Love the way you’re destroying Illinois, but I’d prefer that you take your destructive self to another state. Perhaps Indiana.
- Roman - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 11:59 am:
Looks like the 2016 numbers aren’t broken down by town or neighborhood yet. But this part is interesting:
== The exodus to warmer states is led by the Chicago region’s black population, in search of stable incomes and safe neighborhoods. More than 9,000 black residents left Cook County between 2014 and 2015.
“No group is leaving the county as much as they are,” Paral said. “The loss of African-Americans is really a big factor.” ==
One would imagine that migration to “safe” areas multiplied in 2016, Chicago’s most violent year in two decades.
Meanwhile, a new 40-story condo opens around the Loop every month, fueling a population boom downtown of young, mostly white, professionals. Two Chicagos, indeed.
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:01 pm:
I think we have been losing U.S. citizens for years. That outflow was masked by the inflow of people from outside the USA. That inflow has slowed the last few years. It will slow more with Trump.
- Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:02 pm:
The conspiracy theory that Chicago and Cook County stole state jobs from Springfield never gets old. Having Republicans, who are all puppets for Rauner, propose legislation to bring these “jobs back” makes it even better. You can’t make this stuff up.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:07 pm:
When you get past the headline, which is hard for many, you get stuff like this:
“”There’s this big regional thing going on. It’s not about what’s wrong with Chicago — if anything, it’s what’s wrong with the Midwest or the Northeast,” said Rob Paral, a Chicago-based demographer.”
And
“More than 9,000 black residents left Cook County between 2014 and 2015.
“No group is leaving the county as much as they are,” Paral said. “The loss of African-Americans is really a big factor.”
And
“Some experts agree the region’s second year of population loss signifies a downward trend. But others, like Paral, say it’s too soon to tell. While the Chicago region lost about 19,000 people last year, the region gained that same amount not long ago, between 2012 and 2013. He prefers to call the pattern a “stretch of flat growth.”
“Sure, we would rather be an area that’s growing (more rapidly),” he said. “When you grow, you have more consumers. When you grow, you have more producers. And therefore a more dynamic economy.”
Paral seems to be the only one taking a longer look at this. I’m not saying it’s not happening. it’s just way more complicated than people fleeing for better jobs, lower taxes or warmer weather.
And it also means that reversing this trend is going to be very difficult, not matter how the Governor or his apologists try to spin this.
- Scamp640 - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:08 pm:
@ Last Bull Moose. I would just love to see the data that confirms your point. Can you please point me to some legitimate research that supports your position. Thank you.
- anon - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:14 pm:
well according to Wallethub we are at the bottom when one considers all state taxes wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-states-to-be-a-taxpayer/2416. Yes, many of you can nitpick all you want, but bottom line is that most people read this and think it is time to leave. This has nothing to do with Rauner or the lack of budget. Wait until the democrats succeed in pushing teacher pensions on the local districts. In my particular district the school portion of property tax bill will need to be doubled to meet requirements.
- titan - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
Losing 11k people out of all those millions is hardly bleeding out
- ProfeX - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:16 pm:
@Scamp640, perhaps not stated to your liking, but Last Bull Moose’s assertions are backed by facts, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/ and while much growth in the U.S. comes from immigrants and their recent descendants, it has slowed, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/09/15/the-impact-of-slowing-immigration-foreign-born-share-falls-among-14-largest-us-hispanic-origin-groups/
- wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:16 pm:
In addition to black citizens escaping dangerous neighborhoods, there’s been a reverse migration to Mexico for a number of years now.
Much of previous population growth had been Mexican immigrants. I don’t see immigration being a factor in population growth in the near future.
- James Knell - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:20 pm:
Yet the rent is still too darn high…
- FTR - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:25 pm:
== Meanwhile, a new 40-story condo opens around the Loop every month, fueling a population boom downtown of young, mostly white, professionals. ==
Thought the same thing. The city must be absolutely hemorrhaging population in the neighborhoods — that’s the only way to explain an overall decline.
- Driveby - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:28 pm:
It’s Ty Fahner’s fault. No, wait, the Tribune. No, sorry, Rauner.
- Telly - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:35 pm:
==“The loss of African-Americans is really a big factor.” ==
This will fuel two really difficult political challenges in the near future:
1) Another round of school closing, this time hitting CPS high schools particularly hard.
2) Drawing a new legislative map — no matter who does it — that can survive a federal court challenge for decreasing African-American representation.
- Chicago Bars - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:40 pm:
Meanwhile residential high rise in Chicago is booming according to WSJ.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-apartment-boom-measured-in-construction-cranes-1490198406
And never met the man but Rob Paral puts some pretty interesting maps & research on his website.
http://robparal.com/Gallery1/index.html
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:41 pm:
Wordslinger - except a surge from other nations has more than offset the decline from Mexico (which makes sense given the far worse conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, etc.) http://cis.org/New-Data-Immigration-Surged-in-2014-and-2015
- wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
LCD, Chicago metro was a major destination center for Mexican immigrants. I don’t know if that’s the case for Central American immigrants.
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
To Telly’s post - if anything, the city aldermanic map was gerrymandered to keep the number of African-American wards artificially high. I’m not sure if, even with gerrymandering, any African-American congressional districts would be shifted to a majority white district - they might shift to a majority Hispanic (Louis Guitierrez’ district is contorted to capture two geographically separated areas - I’m not sure if come 2020 those wouldn’t be split into 2 Hispanic majority districts).
As to the school closings, no amount of census data will keep Karen Lewis from charging racism. She might throw in ISIS-like terrorism too (as she’s done it before…)
- NorthsideNoMore - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:53 pm:
Chitown has been exporting its problems for years. So this is no surprise. Closing tons of housing with out building enough replacements sent people to the burbs or over state lines. College students vacating for college in the south and west are not coming home to work. The
UofI probably has more foreign and out of state students than in state that when they graduate take it back to where they came from. Throw in a dash of crime and higher taxes, unstable budgets and services and many would be surprised the net loss is not more.
- illini97 - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 12:56 pm:
It’s certainly a smaller impact than the net losses in Chicago, but that decline in St Louis will have an impact on Metro East as well.
- Telly - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:09 pm:
- lake county democrat -
Good points. There are more Hispanics in Illinois than African-Americans, which is not reflected in the current Congressional or state legislative maps. This is largely because the Latino population is much more widely dispersed.
Karen Lewis will also point, with some justification, to charters as the cause of enrollment loss at high schools. But when enrollment at schools like Austin and Fenger have gone from 3 or 4 thousand students to less than 3 or 4 hundred, something’s gotta give.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:13 pm:
Roman 11:59- the condo boom doesn’t fuel the growth, it’s the other way around. Lots of high paying jobs in the loop, demand for people to be close to their jobs. As far as the condo boom mitigating the overall population loss, my question is, where are the new condo dwellers coming from? Many may just be re-shuffling Chicago addresses. Somewhere at the end of the food chain is a vacant house or apartment.
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:23 pm:
Scamp 640,
ProfeX gave a response based on research. I was conjecturing based on numbers I had seen here and elsewhere about the numbers of undocumented immigrants in Illinois and the changing flow of immigration as the U.S. economy shifted.
Counting undocumented people is always going to be hard and the numbers questionable. The wild card in this will be the Trump immigration policy.
- Roman - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:29 pm:
@ Six Degrees
Wondering where the condo dwellers are coming from is totally legit. My evidence is admittedly anecdotal. I’d like to hear what demographers like Paral think once they can breakdown the 2016 data by neighborhood.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:41 pm:
The most bottom line is employment. How can you live when you can’t find a job?
- GlimmerGirl - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 3:23 pm:
Moved out of Illinois in December, 2015. Not looking back, except to read Rich’s blog of course!
- Ron - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 3:37 pm:
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 1:41 pm:
The most bottom line is employment. How can you live when you can’t find a job?”
This. The state has lost hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs. Those are the people who are leaving.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 23, 17 @ 6:26 pm:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=zF82qVCJYXs