As we’ve all seen over the past several months, Gov. Bruce Rauner is adamantly refusing to provide any help whatsoever to Chicago, which is struggling mightily under the weight of years of fiscal misfeasance, until his Turnaround Agenda demands are met. A long-sought education funding reform bill, a 911 emergency call center fee, even a bill to allow the expedited sale of the Thompson Center have been hit with Rauner’s broad (and often false) brush of being a “Chicago bailout.”
Rauner will never again get another “opportunity” like this one. The Democrats have historically protected Chicago and the city needs more help now than ever before. Going after the city is, by far, Rauner’s “best” leverage to force the Democrats to cut a deal with him.
The Democrats, particularly in the House, won’t budge, partly because their city-based and statewide union allies are demanding all-out war. Labor leaders see barely disguised anti-union agendas everywhere, particularly in the governor’s proposed property tax freeze, which they believe is designed to put so much long-term fiscal pressure on local governments that they’ll demand relief from their union contracts.
The unions have done pretty much everything that House Speaker Michael Madigan has asked them to, right up to and including endorsing a billionaire for governor, despite the fact that this particular billionaire’s family has a not so great relationship with unions at its massive Hyatt Hotel chain.
In return, Madigan has done pretty much everything that organized labor has asked him to do, including running multiple versions of a bill to weaken Rauner’s negotiating hand with AFSCME. And while the Senate Democrats were negotiating workers’ comp reform and a property tax freeze with the Republicans, Madigan put up a brick wall.
The Democrats’ position got a little stronger when the people who run the Chicago Public Schools figured out how to (barely) keep the doors open for the rest of the school year. Without an imminent early June crisis in their party’s traditional home base that could’ve forced their hand with Rauner, they could turn their attention to late June, when a budget has to be passed or the state will be whacked with junk bond status, K-12 schools may be forced to cancel fall classes, social services completely collapse and some of the “directional” universities have to consider becoming half the skeletons they already are.
But Rauner has a stronger public hand. His pledge to stop any and all Chicago bailouts fits right in with attitudes of this state’s “white flight” suburbanites and city-hating Downstaters.
More importantly, the governor’s constant demands for a property tax freeze put him on the side of the vast majority of Illinoisans.
Most Statehouse types believe that Rauner cares nothing at all about the very real and lasting damage this impasse of his is causing. In his prior business career, he’d regularly bust out companies and sell off their pieces if he wasn’t getting his way or if the companies weren’t performing up to his standards. This impasse doesn’t look all that much different.
Some even go further, including Comptroller Susana Mendoza, to claim destruction has been Rauner’s real plan all along. He never wanted a budget, they say. He deliberately set out to shrink government by killing it.
And Madigan is no bleeding heart liberal, either. He’s never been a big fan of the bureaucracy, having fought with AFSCME and the teachers’ unions countless times over the decades (but making up for the spats whenever it was beneficial to his position). His people have denied that the impasse is having any significant impact on the state’s economy. He’s even claimed to some of his members in private that social service providers weren’t as bad off as they’ve said. And a large number of universities are in Republican House districts.
And so, as it has been for two years now, we have a soulless irresistible force up against a heartless immovable object. They both have strong enough bases of support to have sustained them through this mess, even though the vast majority of the population can’t stand either one of them. They’ve done their best to prevent a complete catastrophe on their own side of the fence which could force capitulation. One is a kabillionaire who can bring limitless resources to the campaign playing field. The other has opened a new and expensive front with a billionaire candidate.
We could be heading for the biggest showdown in the history of Illinois at the end of the fiscal year on June 30th. We’ll either get a deal or our state will implode.
- erik - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:05 am:
great column rich…from someone sitting outside the lines, this looks like exactly what is going on
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:12 am:
Woof, that’s a beating with the bark on.
The ghost payroller Rauner has stashed at DHS on contract says he likes 90% of the ed funding bill, but will veto it, anyway.
In a democratic republic, if you won’t make a deal where you get 90%, you don’t see yourself as governor, but generalissimo. And you don’t really want a deal.
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:28 am:
This article appears to be in favor of Rauner. It indicates that Madigan put up a brick wall in the Senate negotiations, but fails to mention that Rauner sabatoged the Senate grand bargain.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:35 am:
Illinois fails because it’s governor was a failure. Rauner raised everyone’s taxes for years to come, and made our broken government worse. His deliberate mismanagement of our state set us back a decade and we will be paying for his destruction in higher costs for our roads we use, the water we drink, the education our children will get, and worse yet, Rauner jacked our taxes by destroying our bond ratings.
Bruce Rauner’s days as governor could end now, but we will all be poorer for the days he was in charge. A monumentally disasterous governor who robbed us even as he his political opponents.
Rauner never believed that what he swore to destroy was keeping Illinois alive. Even if he won, his wins would have had to be reversed because they are unworkable, unrealistic and profoundly immoral.
- Texas Red - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:37 am:
Rauner has the leverage and it only gets stronger with time. MJM is not budging so Rauner sees Janus v. AFSCME as sword of Damocles hanging over MJM’s gov’t union employee base. If SCOTUS follows script and rules 5-4 in favor of Janus, the rules of the game change dramatically. Additionally the toxic MJM is inextricably tied to all Dem candidates in 2018, and that is a good thing for the GOP. Rauner is playing his hand like a champ
- don the legend - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:44 am:
By the governor standing on his principals
(I know, I know, I’m giving him a huge benefit of the doubt), 99% of Illinoisans will or are paying a huge price. But as Rauner has said, “he is happy as can be”.
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:45 am:
“We’ll either get a deal or our state will implode.”
When Rauner rejects deals that gives him 90% of what he wants, the smart money has to be on implosion.
– MrJM
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:48 am:
This article mentions that Rauner wants a property tax freeze, but fails to mention that Madigan voted in favor of a minimum wage hike while Rauner threatened a veto. This and more is why I say this article seems to be in favor of Rauner. Also, Rauners property tax gimmick is nothing more than a gimmick and publicity stunt. Please stop acting like Rauner cares about peoples property tax. He cares more about his reelection goals and that is the only reason why he mentions property tax at the end of every sentence.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:51 am:
Thank you Rich. Some people are already fighting your honest headline and balanced analysis and I suppose that is to be expected in our current climate. But you have said what needs to be said because you are able to see the big picture. You understand and have a birdseye view of the whole state and its denizens that few others do.
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:55 am:
@Responsa
With you being a Rauner supporter your comment only confirms my first one. You believe this article is balanced because it favors your governor.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:55 am:
My money is on the State imploding.
And if it gets BAD enough (a lot worse than now), an obstacle will be removed.
Note: only one of the two obstacles can be removed before the next election, but it will require the IGOP to rebel.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:00 am:
Real, this article favors NO one. It is a clear, well documented indictment of both Rauner and Madigan. Reading it with an open mind helps.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:04 am:
Real: I voted for Quinn and I thought the article was balanced. I don’t know anyone who simply blames Rauner and not blame the Speaker - or for that matter anyone who likes the Speaker - who doesn’t benefit from his protectionist moves (or has a close relative who does).
Re: “white flight suburbanites”
Usually when somebody says Chicago is becoming Detroit, they’re exaggerating or making a bad analogy. But one way that we are inching in that direction is this: Detroit may have fallen off a cliff, but the metro area didn’t: as of 2010 it was still in the top 10 commercial areas in the nation. Don’t underestimate the willingness of suburbanites to leave Chicago to its own devices and be satisfied with a budget that does just that.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:05 am:
- Responsa -
You’re right about Rich, but when candid, Rauner Superstars make clear that 90% of what they wavy is a non-starter…
If you can explain how that all works, gosh, if appreciate that.
To the Post,
GHR, your thoughts?
===“The governor is the top guy. He is the leader. House Speaker Mike Madigan is not. The governor has to make things happen. If he doesn’t get everything he wants, he’s got to figure out how much he can get. To get something done. He’s got to take the wheel. He’s got to have a plan. It’s like everything in life.”
“It seems to me what you’ve got today are two guys very set in their ways and have programs that they just won’t give up on. Gov. Bruce Rauner wants to destroy the unions, and it’s Madigan’s lifeblood. Madigan has to save the unions; otherwise, he doesn’t survive. And it’s just as simple as that.===
… and why Rich is Spot On…
===And so, as it has been for two years now, we have a soulless irresistible force up against a heartless immovable object.===
Rauner could get 90%, but that’s not quite good enough. Former Gov. Ryan makes clear about getting victories. How is 90% of the wants isn’t a victory, someone needs to explain that to me..
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:22 am:
@lake county Democrat
Real: I voted for Quinn and I thought the article was balanced. I don’t know anyone who simply blames Rauner and not blame the Speaker - or for that matter anyone who likes the Speaker - who doesn’t benefit from his protectionist moves (or has a close relative who does)
………
Well, the article mentions that Madigan put up a brick wall in Senate negotiations, but fails to mention that Rauner sabatoged the Senate grand bargain…. That’s balanced to you?
Also, as my name indicates I’m here to keep it real. Lol
This is why I believe Madigan and the democrats are in the wrong when it comes to stop gap budgets and funding k-12 school bills. They need to quit this. If we don’t have a budget then the schools should be closed.
- JohnnyPyleDriver - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:37 am:
I got beat up by several people, the author included, for the suggestion that Madigan was behind the Union Pritzker endorsements less than a week ago. Yet here it is in print. Weird bunch you all
- Markus - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:38 am:
If tax revenues were to be allocated based on the Counties in which they were generated, the whole “Chicago Bailout” discussion would take on a whole new perspective. Our current tax distribution could be considered a “Downstate Bailout”. Pitting downstate versus Chicago is popular and plays well but it is bad policy for the State as a whole.
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:44 am:
@JohhnyPalDriver
Exactly my point.
- stiriketoo - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:49 am:
Rich provides an honest review of the state of affairs in this sorry state but most commentors can’t bring themselves to mention the M word. Sad.
- Real - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:53 am:
@striketoo
That’s real funny. Madigan needs to be gone because its his fault we don’t have a progressive income tax by now, but I stand on my previous views regarding this article.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 10:53 am:
===but I stand on my previous views regarding this article===
lol
Move along already.
- Ginhouse Tommy - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 11:36 am:
We know that Rauner is cold blooded and a bare faced liar but for Madigan to say this impasse has not hurt the state and not impacted social services makes you wonder if he’s been eating funny mushrooms along with his apple everyday. And while Democrats running for re-election are being tied to MJM, ILGOP members running for re-election are bing tied to Rauner. This next election should be interesting.
If Rauner thinks he can shrink state govt. by destroying it so he can out source services and make the pensions payments to state retirees go away, he delusional. The same goes for payments to vendors and health care providers. If the school funding bill is vetoed the media should start calling him the grim reaper or the executioner. Both fit to a tee.
- blue dog dem - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 12:11 pm:
Simple solution to Chicagos financial problem
.1/4% city earnings tax.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 12:45 pm:
Excellent…..well balanced article Rich.
- Mama - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 1:10 pm:
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:12 am: =
++2 You are right on the money.
- Mama - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 1:16 pm:
Door #3 was the door that was keeping hope alive.
@MisterJayEm, are you saying there is no “Door #3″?
- @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 1:44 pm:
Illinois’ Door #3 is currently drifting down a certain creek with no paddle.
– MrJM
- huey - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 6:47 pm:
There has been bias on this blog,but this article was well balanced and insightful. Thank you sir
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 6:50 pm:
“Bias” and “not sharing your view” are not the same.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jun 13, 17 @ 9:36 pm:
== There has been bias on this blog ==
If you hang out here for a while, you get to know the regulars. Some are very partisan, others not so much. Some will argue objective numbers and facts; others will just troll out biased talking points.
A lot are either political junkies who have actually been there, done that or have been semi-impartial observers for decades. A fair number have practical experience in making the system work from the inside.
Even the proprietor of this bar has his partisan leanings. He is on the opposite side from me, but that is OK; we both want the system to work.
Rich does a better job presenting both sides than anyone else doing this kind of reporting in Illinois. That’s why all of us hang out here …