* Tribune…
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner presents his budget proposal Wednesday, and the pregame positioning already has begun.
Democratic Senate President John Cullerton had an op-ed published in the Springfield State Journal-Register claiming the governor has to overcome $9 billion in red ink, even as the governor says he wants to lower taxes.
Not only that, Cullerton says, but school spending must rise by $350 million to satisfy the new education funding law Rauner signed last year.
“Anything less undermines the governor’s accomplishment,” the op-ed reads. That quote appears to be a thinly veiled reference to Rauner’s naming education funding reform as his No. 1 accomplishment.
* From his op-ed…
That said, not everything in our budget worked. We sent the governor a Republican-backed pension reform plan, one his administration initially said could save $500 million annually. Turns out the pension agencies weren’t ready to put it in motion. Those savings haven’t materialized.
Same thing with estimated state revenues. They came in $500 million lower than the estimates used to produce our bipartisan budget agreement.
That’s state budgeting for you.
Not everything works as planned. It’s state government. We’re not perfect.
* Cullerton held a press conference today. Raw audio is here. One tidbit…
Cullerton said he and his staff have not yet been briefed and doesn’t know if they will be ahead of tomorrow’s unveiling.
*** UPDATE *** Here’s some of the info that was distributed at today’s presser…
FY 2019 budget pressures.
The FY 18 budget utilized several one-time revenue sources that all expire at the end of the budget year. The governor will need to account for this in his FY 19 budget:
Fund sweeps: $300 million
10 percent cuts to LGDF and Mass Transit Districts: $200 million
Transfers out halted: $130 million
Personal Property Replacement Tax fund appropriations: $160 million
Total: $790 million
There are several known spending increases required for the FY 19 budget that the governor will need to address:
Spending pressures:
New school funding formula: $350 million
Payment to pension systems: $500 million
Debt service on borrowing to pay bills: $780 million
Total: $1.63 billion
Combined total: $2.42 billion
* Related…
* 4 Things To Listen For In Governor’s Budget Speech
- Retired Educator - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:10 am:
Get ready for the magic show folks. It will be complete with illusions, smoke, and slight of hand. A balanced budget that is 8 billion dollars in debt going in, can not be paid by cutting taxes. A revenue stream has to be put in place, and the money promised to pay down the debt. Tomorrow should be a Las Vegas quality Magic Show.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:13 am:
Should be interesting. Especially since math says the income tax rate (assuming no other increased revenue or spending cuts) needs to be 7% if you want to wipe out the backlog and increase school funding all in one year.
- Henry Francis - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:14 am:
Cullerton is using real, hard numbers there. The Guv prefers baloney.
I wonder how much more the sale of the Thompson Center is going to net the state in 2018?
- walker - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:15 am:
Half a billion here, half a billion there — “” That’s state budgeting for you.” –not good enough Mr Cullerton.
It was easy to see that Rauner’s estimates of pension savings, and procurement reform savings, were not even remotely likely. School funding is such a tangled magilla, maybe missing some parts is understandable. We could also let the Revenue shortfall slide, if we hadn’t made the same forecasting mistakes in recent years.
The Senate President did correctly challenge Rauner to propose a balanced budget this time around, but no: “sorry we forecasted this line wrong, by hundreds of millions.” allowed. Please.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:21 am:
I’m glad Cullerton pointed out that we are $2.5 billion (with a b) in the hole before any spending is allocated.
I fully expect Rauner to ignore this fact and propose a budget that is balanced by “working together” and magic beans.
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:22 am:
Walker, what are you talking about?
The school funding pressure is for FY 19. It’s what the new law calls for in the next budget. Nothing was missed regarding schools. It’s pointing out what the governor has committed himself to do in FY 19.
The point of the revenue estimate is that they changed after the budget was passed. That happens all the time. Remember, they changed from what the governor was using, too.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:27 am:
===Senate President John Cullerton speaks ahead of @GovRauner’s budget address scheduled for tomorrow: “We certainly hope we don’t have to override another veto to pass a budget.”===
Rauner can’t sign a budget, politically, that uses and requires that “tax increase” to pay for things, even the education funding “triumph”
Cullerton will have to pass a budget, veto-proofed, then override the vetoes, yet again.
Rauner has no intention, as seen in merely the educational numbers running counter to his funding formula win, to getting a budget that is responsible and honest to the monies to make it workable.
Rauner easily will go 4 years without a signed full year fiscal budget, as a governor.
That’s failure or purposeful destruction of Illinois… or both(?)
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:33 am:
Understatement of the year and about as close as Senator Cullerton will ever get to a mea culpa
“Not everything works as planned. It’s state government. We’re not perfect.”
- Norseman - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:33 am:
What magic beans will Rauner try to sell us to say his budget is balanced?
- Another pension “reform” (I have to laugh every time I hear this fraudulent term) bean that will instantly grow the savings for the budgeted fiscal year?
- The higher revenue bean where growth will offset the income tax amount Rauner proposes to phase out?
- The increased federal revenue bean, even though Trumpies are itching to reduce funding for states?
- The property sales bean where all that prime property the state owns will be sold off at great profit?
Rauner’s problem is that after three previous tall tales, nobody will buy his magic beans.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:36 am:
“My advice to him is why don’t you do the best budget you’ve ever done, a balanced one, and then run on it. And really don’t have phony holes in it and be honest with people and maybe you won’t be so unpopular.”
Senator Cullerton at his finest
Pay no attention to my 40 year record in Springfield where i have been complicit in everything I am accusing the Governor of, just my words bashing the Governor
- walker - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:37 am:
“”Walker, what are you talking about?”"
You’re right, I didn’t read carefully enough.
On the Revenue forecast — my remaining quibble is that the restatements always seem to go in one direction, reflecting initial overconfidence.
(You’re usually a lot more fun. LOL)
- Dude Abides - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:43 am:
I’m afraid OW is probably right. I expect another long frustrating Summer in the Capital. Rauner’s campaign will center on the idea that we have a budget impasse because he is fighting for the taxpayers. He has put his personal agenda before the fiscal health of the state for 3 years why should we expect him to change now?
- RNUG - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:44 am:
== Rauner’s problem is that after three previous tall tales, nobody will buy his magic beans. ==
I’m expecting pixie dust this year … and lots of dollars from “Right to Work” reforms.
- anon2 - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:45 am:
Is there any Republican commenter who believes the Governor will propose a budget that actually balances, and that starts reducing the income tax?
- Chris Widger - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:47 am:
==Is there any Republican commenter who believes the Governor will propose a budget that actually balances, and that starts reducing the income tax?==
Of course he won’t do this, but the voters don’t want this. We get to decide what we want in November, and we will not support anyone who wants that. The people get the government they deserve.
- don the legend - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:50 am:
Can’t wait to see what Ives will put out regarding Rauner’s anticipated bizarro world budget proposal.
- Al - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 11:51 am:
I predict the Governor will present a balanced budget. However there will be a $10.5 billion dollar line to balance it labeled “That Madigan!”. Snark
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:04 pm:
“People get the government they deserve” - no. Respectfully, we get the government the other people voted for.
- Anon - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:12 pm:
I predict a substantial portion of the saving will come from retiree/employee healthcare and the pension shift.
- the Cardinal - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:21 pm:
Tax the Trump tax reform windfalls that all those corporations that moved to Illinois the last …No wait never-mind
- Stand Tall - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
“Cullerton is using real, hard numbers there. The Guv prefers baloney.” - Tell me how many truly balanced budgets using hard numbers not accounting gimmicks has Cullerton passed as Senate President?
- Blue dog dem - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:46 pm:
Sen. Cullerton. “You cant handle the truth!” If you really want a balanced budget. I can trim only about $1.7 billion and I guarantee you wont like my cuts. How about you lead the charge on more revenue?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 12:53 pm:
I put the “working together” line item over/under at $6B and a hook.
- Osborne Smith III - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 1:09 pm:
So, what happens if Representative Ives beats Bruce in the primary? He’ll have zero incentive whatsoever to try to work with the legislature then.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 1:09 pm:
word, I got the over on that line, ok?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 1:11 pm:
AA, so do I.
- Crispycritter - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 2:15 pm:
Need a jar of jelly beans on the podium tomorrow.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 2:15 pm:
== I predict a substantial portion of the saving will come from retiree/employee healthcare and the pension shift. ==
The State doesn’t pay for TRS health insurance. And they will.still have to pay pendsions for SERS, JRS, GARS, and most if not all SURS.
At best, I would guess that is $3B to $4B annually.
- walker - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 2:16 pm:
MFlaherty: You’re right. I was wrong. Thanks.
- Hottot - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 8:28 pm:
===So, what happens if Representative Ives beats Bruce in the primary? He’ll have zero incentive whatsoever to try to work with the legislature then.===
He’s had no incentive to work with the legislature thus far. I hate to keep beating the same old drum, but when you’re already wealthy with nothing to lose, and you have a reputation of hardline approaches to negotiating, you really don’t care. Rauner has had no incentive thus far to negotiate with them, which is why he hasn’t.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Feb 13, 18 @ 8:55 pm:
RNUG, and don’t forget CTPF.
- Rabid - Wednesday, Feb 14, 18 @ 3:59 am:
he will map out a path, shifting cost to local government empowering them to team Rauner for the repeal of prevailing wage