A new Tulchin Research poll conducted February 6-10, 2019 finds Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle continues to lead a crowded field of candidates for Mayor of Chicago. Preckwinkle is well positioned to make the runoff election, as she currently runs ten points ahead of her closest challenger, and she leads both Bill Daley and Susana Mendoza in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. […]
Toni Preckwinkle currently runs first among the field of mayoral candidates, attracting support from 21 percent of voters. Clustered together and statistically tied for second place are Willie Wilson (11%), Bill Daley (10%), Susana Mendoza (10%), Lori Lightfoot (9%), and Amara Enyia (8%) and 13 percent of voters remain undecided.
The largest number of undecideds are black voters (24 percent) and Hispanic voters (22 percent). The margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percent. […]
Crime and drugs were listed by 21 percent of voters [as an issue important in determining their vote]; economy and jobs were listed by 19 percent; public corruption was listed by 11 percent, as was schools; and high taxes came in at 10 percent. […]
Nearly six out of 10 voters said the city is on the wrong track, again with more women than men disenchanted.
* Meanwhile, from last night…
The union and fund are not supporting any of the other 13 candidates in the race, just making clear that they support "anybody but Daley." The engineers backed Gery Chico in 2011 and Rahm Emanuel in 2015.
* So, despite the following article being labeled as a “scoop” this morning, it’s not. However, it does have some good info…
The attack ad focuses on Daley’s career as a banker. A voice says: “As president of SBC, Daley took a million-dollar bonus and then laid off 5,000 workers. Then as the chairman of a Wall Street bank, Daley took more than $15 million—the same year his bank admitted to illegally overcharging thousands of active duty troops and driving military families into foreclosure, forcing them out of their homes. Bill Daley—a Wall Street banker who got rich off working people.”
Fight Back Fund is connected to the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150—they share the same address and James Sweeney, the head of Local 150, is an officer with the PAC. The ad buy was made through Left Hook Communications, a left-leaning political strategy firm.
During the 2018 midterms, Fight Back played a huge role in funding conservative former state Sen. Sam McCann’s campaign for governor. McCann ultimately pulled votes away from Republican incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner. Before that, the same independent expenditure PAC spent big money to oppose attorney general candidates Pat Quinn and Scott Drury (both Democrats) and Erika Harold (a Republican).
Other trade unions are helping fund the PAC, according to a source familiar with the organization. It appears Local 150 isn’t supporting any one candidate for mayor, but it knows which one it doesn’t want to win—that would be Daley.
This is probably the pool of potential “1-2” folks, but what is the rub? Election Day and trying to not only get your voters out… finding out “who the heck are our voters?” is more problematic.
You have 19% undecided, and 19% for any of these folks could mean making the runoff.
The structured GOTV any of these folks can generate with any semblance of organized and real pluses, that will probably go a long way to get to the next round.
Otherwise, it’s going to be;
“We’ll put the name in the mix, see if we shake out this round.”
Not great.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:02 am:
The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?
It’s hard to do, but in a poll like this, it would be interesting to know who is the second choice or a ranking of 1,2,3. This one appears to be such a close race, it’s hard to guess what will happen.
The biggest separation comes after the Top 6. The bottom 7 support will have a deciding effect on the top 2. This race is a political junkie’s dream and a political strategist’s nightmare.
Once we’re down to two, it will be something to see where the “other 11″ line up and with whom. Wow.
I imagine that many voters are overwhelmed and confused by the large field. Those who tend to vote based on demographics have multiple options in each lane. Could be a long and wild night.
Being from the Metro East I don’t have a vote but I sure do appreciate Suzanna Mendoza. I’ve seen her at a half a dozen of my unions’ events. She always takes time afterwards to talk with us and take pics. This means a lot to us front liners. It’s not just hype or show. I really feel that Mendoza has our backs. Just my two cents.
Seems like the message that Daley is a crypto-Republican could easily help him in a wide open top-two primary. There aren’t a lot of Republicans in Chicago, but if they unify behind somebody in a field this big, they could push him through to the runoff. Call it 15-20% based on last year’s gov results, plus whatever Dems and independents like Daley. That might be plenty, although the same message then becomes toxic in April.
Honeybear: I agree — I had the chance to meet and hear from Mendoza on several of her visits to southern Illinois in the last couple years, and as a result I really hope she loses this race so that she continues as comptroller.
==The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?==
Campaigns don’t stop because they are losing. Campaigns stop because they run out of money.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:22 am:
No offense to polls, but that poll is pretty useless. Just about everyone above Enyia is within the margin of error. Even the people below Enyia have at least a somewhat decent shot if a lot of the undecideds break their way or something happens to the other candidates. The reality is that there is no front runner or likely even a group of front runners. Anything could happen this time.
It’s all about turnout now.
The negative ad can hurt but the old school folks who know the Daley name and will probably still be all in.
Can everyone else turn their voters out?
We’ve seen Toni successfully do it.
Susanna obviously is getting big bump from Labor to do it.
What are Lightfoot and Chico’s strategy to get high numbers?
That night might turn into a couple of weeks of vote counting given the increasing number of vote-by-mail ballots. Not inconceivable that three or more candidates could be within a few thousand votes of second place on Election Night.
LXB- I wasn’t going to say that. She’s got to make the call as to where she can be most impactful. I thank God for her in her role as comptroller. She has stood by us many a time. Part of it is trust. I trust her. If she feels that she could run for Mayor then I trust that she won’t shaft us to do so. Trust is earned. She earned it from me at least. I hope she wins. I think she will do great things for Chicago.
This is looking like the classic Precinct Captain election. The person who has the still active organizations will have an advantage. That would be Mendoza
I mean, I won’t name names but at least one of the candidates in that under-5% group, I assumed he knew he wouldn’t win, but he runs every four years on the assumption that someone in the top 2 will offer him something for his endorsement in the runoff. And when he asks this year, I hope they tell him to get lost.
==Preckwinkle will get more of the undecided blacks voters than any one else so I see her as a lock for the runoff.==
I’m not so sure about that. Lori Lightfoot getting the Sun-Times endorsement may matter.
I did not see it in the poll, but I’d be fascinated to see the second-choice options for the top five candidates. That would provide perspective on runoff scenarios.
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:12 pm:
“Five points separate five mayoral candidates”
The margin of error is 4 points, so it’s arguably a toss up among those candidates, plus Chico and Enyia also make the lead pack on that basis. Preckwinkle could be as low as 10, and Enyia as high as 11.
–I mean, I won’t name names but at least one of the candidates in that under-5% group, I assumed he knew he wouldn’t win, but he runs every four years on the assumption that someone in the top 2 will offer him something for his endorsement in the runoff. And when he asks this year, I hope they tell him to get lost.–
Are you ready for Fioretti? Nope, because I still remember how he ran against Emanuel and said negative things about him, then wound up endorsing him in the runoff against Garcia.
== She’s got to make the call as to where she can be most impactful… I trust her. If she feels that she could run for Mayor then I trust that she won’t shaft us to do so. Trust is earned. She earned it from me at least.==
The title of Mayor of Chicago is slightly more powerful and prestigious than comptroller. That’s most likely where the decision process about running this race started and ended for her. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
== Preckwinkle will get more of the undecided black voters ==
Not necessarily. Toni is extremely well known among African-Americans, many of the other candidates are not. The fact that the number of undecided is so high among black voters indicates they’re looking for someone else.
It’s looking like Daley and Preckwinkle. Preckwinkle takes a close first on her solidified African American support, and well…..Daley on his name and the influx of heavy money and having a very smart, and still formidable 11th Ward backing him. Mendoza…a close 3rd. The negatives hurt her…Burke and Solis associations.
150 hasn’t done their due diligence. Bill Daley is pushing the most far reaching pro labor, pro vocational ed, pro manufacturing set of policies of anyone in the race. It’s one reason the Plumbers Union is backing Daley.
–Bill Daley is pushing the most far reaching pro labor, pro vocational ed, pro manufacturing set of policies of anyone in the race.–
Yet he’s the only candidate who thinks the pensions owed to City of Chicago employees should be changed and benefits reduced in some manner. Every other of these Mayoral candidates acknowledges it’s an obligation to pay the workers as promised.
- northsider (the original) - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:00 pm:
West Wing-
Daley co-chaired Rauner’s transition and authored the transition report calling for tort reform, worker’s comp reform and eliminating pesky ‘overburdensome regulations’.
150 worked hard to get rid of Rauner, they’re exercising due diligence to prevent the election of Rauner 2.0.
Druid, John Daley does have the spot. They still have power. But the old timers of the ward are few and far between. Not a ton of Daley loyalists left. So many Asians now…and so many transient Amara and Preckwinkle folks. Kozlar can cut into him too…and Joyce has a lot of the Canaryville support.
Why take Chicago backwards with (another) Daley? Weren’t his brother’s “corruption scandals, contract cronyism and financial mismanagement,” as David Axelrod observed, enough for us?
This is three way race but is really a two way race. Lori doesn’t have the money to break through. Neither does Gery (he has to put in his own dough to stay on the air). Half of undecideds are Latino and African American. Undecideds are certainly not going to Bill Daley. While both Lori and Gery can nip away some votes from Toni and Susana respectively, it won’t be enough to overcome their deficit. I’m calling it Toni and Susana for the runoff.
I’ve heard and read that Lori Lightfoot wants fairness and inclusion for all of the people of Chicago. To me, that’s a powerful message and it HAS got through to me. She doesn’t need to raise the most money in order for me to hear what she’s saying.
==This is looking like the classic Precinct Captain election. The person who has the still active organizations will have an advantage. That would be Mendoza===
Mendoza has the organizations when the organizations decide she should be somewhere. They wanted her as comptroller and got Biss to step aside so she won. They wanted her as Clerk.
Doesn’t appear that there us unity around wanting her for Mayor. I think her “organization” is therefore overblown (because it isn’t really hers).
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:01 am:
===Undecided: 19 percent
Toni Preckwinkle: 14 percent
Bill Daley: 13 percent
Susana Mendoza: 12 percent
Lori Lightfoot: 10 percent
Gery Chico: 9 percent===
This is probably the pool of potential “1-2” folks, but what is the rub? Election Day and trying to not only get your voters out… finding out “who the heck are our voters?” is more problematic.
You have 19% undecided, and 19% for any of these folks could mean making the runoff.
The structured GOTV any of these folks can generate with any semblance of organized and real pluses, that will probably go a long way to get to the next round.
Otherwise, it’s going to be;
“We’ll put the name in the mix, see if we shake out this round.”
Not great.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:02 am:
The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?
- A guy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:04 am:
It’s hard to do, but in a poll like this, it would be interesting to know who is the second choice or a ranking of 1,2,3. This one appears to be such a close race, it’s hard to guess what will happen.
The biggest separation comes after the Top 6. The bottom 7 support will have a deciding effect on the top 2. This race is a political junkie’s dream and a political strategist’s nightmare.
Once we’re down to two, it will be something to see where the “other 11″ line up and with whom. Wow.
- wordslinger - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:06 am:
–The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?–
They don’t like somebody above them.
- Anon - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:06 am:
This is pre-Ken Griffin $1M.
- Over Served - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:06 am:
At least Sweeney didn’t call him a Wall Street Judas this time.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:06 am:
I imagine that many voters are overwhelmed and confused by the large field. Those who tend to vote based on demographics have multiple options in each lane. Could be a long and wild night.
- Fax Machine - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:07 am:
Preckwinkle will get more of the undecided blacks voters than any one else so I see her as a lock for the runoff.
Who she ends up running against I have no idea and might not until the 27th
- Fax Machine - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:10 am:
It looks like Chicago Republicans are not heeding their leaders’ advice and supporting Willie Wilson
- Honeybear - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:10 am:
Being from the Metro East I don’t have a vote but I sure do appreciate Suzanna Mendoza. I’ve seen her at a half a dozen of my unions’ events. She always takes time afterwards to talk with us and take pics. This means a lot to us front liners. It’s not just hype or show. I really feel that Mendoza has our backs. Just my two cents.
- Jim Sather - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:12 am:
Fax machine: Yes they are both of them came out for Willie
- wordslinger - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:17 am:
The engineer’s spot is brutally effective at challenging Daley’s regular guy from the neighborhood schtick.
Daley has gotten very fat on the family name for a long time.
- LXB - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:19 am:
Seems like the message that Daley is a crypto-Republican could easily help him in a wide open top-two primary. There aren’t a lot of Republicans in Chicago, but if they unify behind somebody in a field this big, they could push him through to the runoff. Call it 15-20% based on last year’s gov results, plus whatever Dems and independents like Daley. That might be plenty, although the same message then becomes toxic in April.
Honeybear: I agree — I had the chance to meet and hear from Mendoza on several of her visits to southern Illinois in the last couple years, and as a result I really hope she loses this race so that she continues as comptroller.
- MG85 - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:20 am:
==The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?==
Campaigns don’t stop because they are losing. Campaigns stop because they run out of money.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:22 am:
No offense to polls, but that poll is pretty useless. Just about everyone above Enyia is within the margin of error. Even the people below Enyia have at least a somewhat decent shot if a lot of the undecideds break their way or something happens to the other candidates. The reality is that there is no front runner or likely even a group of front runners. Anything could happen this time.
- Dupage Bard - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:32 am:
It’s all about turnout now.
The negative ad can hurt but the old school folks who know the Daley name and will probably still be all in.
Can everyone else turn their voters out?
We’ve seen Toni successfully do it.
Susanna obviously is getting big bump from Labor to do it.
What are Lightfoot and Chico’s strategy to get high numbers?
- BC - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:34 am:
== Could be a long and wild night. ==
That night might turn into a couple of weeks of vote counting given the increasing number of vote-by-mail ballots. Not inconceivable that three or more candidates could be within a few thousand votes of second place on Election Night.
- Honeybear - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:37 am:
LXB- I wasn’t going to say that. She’s got to make the call as to where she can be most impactful. I thank God for her in her role as comptroller. She has stood by us many a time. Part of it is trust. I trust her. If she feels that she could run for Mayor then I trust that she won’t shaft us to do so. Trust is earned. She earned it from me at least. I hope she wins. I think she will do great things for Chicago.
- Chunga - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:44 am:
This is looking like the classic Precinct Captain election. The person who has the still active organizations will have an advantage. That would be Mendoza
- ZC - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:47 am:
I mean, I won’t name names but at least one of the candidates in that under-5% group, I assumed he knew he wouldn’t win, but he runs every four years on the assumption that someone in the top 2 will offer him something for his endorsement in the runoff. And when he asks this year, I hope they tell him to get lost.
- Gooner - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:52 am:
Regarding the under 5%.
I’m tentatively backing Vallas. He’s at what — 2 percent?
However, with a field this split it wouldn’t shock me if he made the run-off.
Right now, other than maybe people like Griffin who nobody has ever heard of, anybody could make the run-off.
As others have noted, turnout is huge.
I admit that this is the first election where I might not turn out.
Although I like Vallas, if I’m busy that day or the weather is bad, do I care enough to show up?
Not really.
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 11:55 am:
==Preckwinkle will get more of the undecided blacks voters than any one else so I see her as a lock for the runoff.==
I’m not so sure about that. Lori Lightfoot getting the Sun-Times endorsement may matter.
I did not see it in the poll, but I’d be fascinated to see the second-choice options for the top five candidates. That would provide perspective on runoff scenarios.
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:12 pm:
“Five points separate five mayoral candidates”
The margin of error is 4 points, so it’s arguably a toss up among those candidates, plus Chico and Enyia also make the lead pack on that basis. Preckwinkle could be as low as 10, and Enyia as high as 11.
- Christopher - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:24 pm:
–I mean, I won’t name names but at least one of the candidates in that under-5% group, I assumed he knew he wouldn’t win, but he runs every four years on the assumption that someone in the top 2 will offer him something for his endorsement in the runoff. And when he asks this year, I hope they tell him to get lost.–
Are you ready for Fioretti? Nope, because I still remember how he ran against Emanuel and said negative things about him, then wound up endorsing him in the runoff against Garcia.
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:30 pm:
Joyce has a bigger organization than any of these people, Daley and Mendoza included.
- Responsa - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:45 pm:
== She’s got to make the call as to where she can be most impactful… I trust her. If she feels that she could run for Mayor then I trust that she won’t shaft us to do so. Trust is earned. She earned it from me at least.==
The title of Mayor of Chicago is slightly more powerful and prestigious than comptroller. That’s most likely where the decision process about running this race started and ended for her. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
- Roman - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 12:59 pm:
== Preckwinkle will get more of the undecided black voters ==
Not necessarily. Toni is extremely well known among African-Americans, many of the other candidates are not. The fact that the number of undecided is so high among black voters indicates they’re looking for someone else.
- Druid Eye - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
It’s looking like Daley and Preckwinkle. Preckwinkle takes a close first on her solidified African American support, and well…..Daley on his name and the influx of heavy money and having a very smart, and still formidable 11th Ward backing him. Mendoza…a close 3rd. The negatives hurt her…Burke and Solis associations.
- WSJ Paywall - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 1:05 pm:
That anti-Daley ad moves a little too fast for me.
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 1:16 pm:
Druid the 11th is but a shell of its former self. The organization is contained by a few square blocks.
- Druid Eye - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 1:34 pm:
Anon…1:16 pm…..gotcha. Ty. Thought they were still pretty strong…especially with J. Daley as a Cook County Commissioner.
- West Wing - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 1:55 pm:
150 hasn’t done their due diligence. Bill Daley is pushing the most far reaching pro labor, pro vocational ed, pro manufacturing set of policies of anyone in the race. It’s one reason the Plumbers Union is backing Daley.
- Northsider - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 2:01 pm:
“The people that are under 5%, it’s odd that they are staying til the bitter end. Why?”
The same thing that brought them into the race in the first place: Ego.
- Christopher - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 2:19 pm:
–Bill Daley is pushing the most far reaching pro labor, pro vocational ed, pro manufacturing set of policies of anyone in the race.–
Yet he’s the only candidate who thinks the pensions owed to City of Chicago employees should be changed and benefits reduced in some manner. Every other of these Mayoral candidates acknowledges it’s an obligation to pay the workers as promised.
- northsider (the original) - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:00 pm:
West Wing-
Daley co-chaired Rauner’s transition and authored the transition report calling for tort reform, worker’s comp reform and eliminating pesky ‘overburdensome regulations’.
150 worked hard to get rid of Rauner, they’re exercising due diligence to prevent the election of Rauner 2.0.
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:27 pm:
Druid, John Daley does have the spot. They still have power. But the old timers of the ward are few and far between. Not a ton of Daley loyalists left. So many Asians now…and so many transient Amara and Preckwinkle folks. Kozlar can cut into him too…and Joyce has a lot of the Canaryville support.
- Christopher - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:33 pm:
Why take Chicago backwards with (another) Daley? Weren’t his brother’s “corruption scandals, contract cronyism and financial mismanagement,” as David Axelrod observed, enough for us?
- Shytown - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:42 pm:
This is three way race but is really a two way race. Lori doesn’t have the money to break through. Neither does Gery (he has to put in his own dough to stay on the air). Half of undecideds are Latino and African American. Undecideds are certainly not going to Bill Daley. While both Lori and Gery can nip away some votes from Toni and Susana respectively, it won’t be enough to overcome their deficit. I’m calling it Toni and Susana for the runoff.
- Christopher - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:49 pm:
–Lori doesn’t have the money to break through.–
I’ve heard and read that Lori Lightfoot wants fairness and inclusion for all of the people of Chicago. To me, that’s a powerful message and it HAS got through to me. She doesn’t need to raise the most money in order for me to hear what she’s saying.
- Boone's is Back - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 3:56 pm:
==This is looking like the classic Precinct Captain election. The person who has the still active organizations will have an advantage. That would be Mendoza===
Nodding my head up until Mendoza. LOL how so?
- Morris Morton - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 4:33 pm:
Mendoza has the organizations when the organizations decide she should be somewhere. They wanted her as comptroller and got Biss to step aside so she won. They wanted her as Clerk.
Doesn’t appear that there us unity around wanting her for Mayor. I think her “organization” is therefore overblown (because it isn’t really hers).
- Anonymous - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 4:36 pm:
Daley is clearly going to pull this in the runoff.