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Morning Consult poll: Pritzker the 8th least popular governor
Wednesday, Oct 23, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller * With all the usual caveats about Morning Consult’s opaque methodology, the company’s latest poll has Gov. Pritzker with a 43 percent job approval rating and a 42 percent disapproval rating. 14 percent are undecided. He’s +47 with Democrats and -56 with Republicans, which is far worse (and probably more realistic) than the recent poll for Public Radio which had him at -36 with GOP respondents. That poll had his approval/disapproval rating at 59/41. The Morning Consult poll taken during the first quarter of the year had Pritzker at 40/29, so his disapproval rating has climbed considerably since then. The governor was at 44/35 in second-quarter polling. The company is claiming a margin of error of +/- 1 percent for 21,533 registered Illinois voters between July 1 and September 30.
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- Steve - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 9:51 am:
I know it’s just a poll. But, I have a difficult time believing that J.B. Pritzker is the 8th least popular Governor right now. If there were more polls over the coming months like this , I ‘d start believing something is up.
- Christopher - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 9:52 am:
You mean Morning Consult didn’t give Bruce Rauner the title “Least Popular in Perpetuity”?
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 9:54 am:
In Illinois, the big concern for Democrats is what will the base do rather than Republican base strength. There was a big turnout for Pritzker, and still he got less votes than the other Democratic statewide candidates. Pritzker has delivered big for Democrats and their voters, with so many accomplishments already. His prospects for future electoral success in his position are sunny, barring bombshells.
- Henry Francis - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 9:56 am:
Let’s see what the polls are in 2 years. Sounds like most of his haters will have moved to Florida by the time he’s up for re-election.
- Steve - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 9:59 am:
- Grandson of Man -
It’s hard to disagree with you on this one because JB will probably get more significant legislation passed that his base wants. JB is a doer.
- Sayitaintso - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:00 am:
@Henry Francis at 9:56 am. “Sounds like most of his haters will have moved to Florida by the time he’s up for re-election.”
What?
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:02 am:
Morning Consult is not a reliable poll with reliable methodology. In the absence of any data, maybe we care. But there have been other more legit polls out there that have radically different results.
- efudd - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:10 am:
Teaching us the harsh reality that we have to pay for things if we want them.
That was Quinn’s undoing. The first governor in years that made us half-way live within a budget.
We didn’t like that.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:11 am:
I don’t think your average voter makes bright line distinctions between politicians. They hear tax hikes or proposed tax hikes in the media nearly every day. They know the Democrats control everything. People don’t realize what the gas tax hike is paying for, they just know it went up (and if they cross the border they see prices much lower). Lots of Cook Co. homeowners had their taxes raised - sure that’s because of a needed correction of Joe Berios’ malfeasance but it doesn’t matter. When the constitution amendment comes up, people just hear it’s JB wanting to do something with taxes. The prospect of legalized weed only takes you so far.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:12 am:
8th least popular. kind of like and the third runner up is…. snore.
- allknowingmasterofraccoodom - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:14 am:
I’m a R. I think he is doing ok. Tax increases are no fun, but the revenue was needed for the capital bill.
My only real complaint is that he did not take any of the new revenue and pay down any debt. Anything. Throw us a bone.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:16 am:
The only takeaway I’m with is that Pritzker is not under water in this methodology.
I have no clear snapshot, but I can concur the Governor is probably not under water, and these numbers seem to concur.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:18 am:
===But there have been other more legit polls out there that have radically different results===
I don’t think the last poll was all that more “legit.” It did have radically different results, particularly among Republicans, which is very odd.
- SOIL M - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:19 am:
I take all polls with a grain of salt including this one. But if the numbers are correct, he still is an improvement over the last train wreck we had.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:20 am:
JB was the answer to voters on both sides of the aisle who wanted to get rid of Gov. Rauner. Mission accomplished. I thought at the time of his election, though, that some observers were already vastly over- weighing the *fact* of Pritzker’s election as indicators of deep support and wide public acceptance for *all* of his proposed projects and agenda items. With the usual caveats about polls in general, I think this may be what is driving this one down as he moves forward with actual implementation.
- Jack Kemp - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:23 am:
Hey y’all. Long time no see. Say, just checking in: has OW said anything negative at all about JB? How about something positive about any Republican?
No?
Good thing I wasn’t holding my breath.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:28 am:
- Jack Kemp -
=== Long time no see===
So you don’t know, LOL
Your lone comment come back “for a long time” is about … me…
Do I need to start paying rent, living in your head for “a long time”
- Pick a Name - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:42 am:
Jack, Willy loves JB
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:49 am:
- Pick a Name -
Far more than Rauner, 1,000%
You love a racist president. Live with that. It’s who you are.
If you’d like to search my criticisms, start with DCFS, Willowbrook, the IPI folks still in the Administration.
Compared to Rauner? It’s not close. Rauner wanted to destroy Illinois, Pritzker is trying to undo Rauner damage.
- Pick a Name - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 10:57 am:
Hmmm, nobody was talking about Rauner and nobody was talking about Trump.
But, what are your thoughts about the Cubs hiring Ross?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:01 am:
=== nobody was talking about Rauner and nobody was talking about Trump.===
You said I love J.B…. compared to Rauner, 1,000%
In context, you love a racist president. You wanna go there?
Cubs and Ross? Ryne Sandberg deserves better.
- Anon E Moose - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:12 am:
Pick a Name seems surprised that there are people who disagree with him/her.
- Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:14 am:
Poor methodology or no, I have a very hard time believing that a Dem governor, in an overwhelmingly Dem state, who just got done signing a bunch of bills into law that were highly popular among the Dem electorate, actually experienced a 16 point *drop* in public approval since the Public Radio poll. That makes absolutely zero sense.
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:32 am:
efudd is right. We want nice things but don’t want to pay for them.
If the progressive income tax passes, JB will look invincible. If it fails and he has to raise taxes across the board, then he might attract opponents.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:34 am:
efudd –
That was NOT Quinn’s undoing.
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:46 am:
Morning Consult surveyed over 21,000 registered Illinois voters and NPR surveyed just over 1,000. Why is it less reliable?
The NPR sample breakdown was 53% D, 30% R and 15% Independent.
JB is governing like the state is 85% D, no wonder he is the 8th least popular Governor.
- Pick a Name - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:46 am:
FYI Willy, I love Trump’s accomplishments.
Making a prediction a year out, the progressive tax does not pass. But, if it does, a lot of wealthy people will call Florida, Texas, Tennessee home.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:49 am:
- Pick a Name -
Nope. You’re with a racist president, it’s who you are.
President George HW Bush explains it perfectly with David Duke.
Calling President Obama “Barry” doesn’t help your plea either. That’s who you are too.
- J. Nolan - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 11:56 am:
OW - Whether you agree with the methodology or not, there is a clear trend line on the disapproval number for JB. So, of course, with you’re immense wit and unrivaled political analysis, you identify that he isn’t under water by 1 point to be the only thing you take away from this.
okay. lol
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 12:08 pm:
My limited contact with the extremely wealthy shows that a few percentage points on income tax do not drive their choice of where to live. A colleague of mine retired from his company in Florida and bought a $4 million condo in Chicago. Dollars were not driving that decision.
- LakeCo - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 1:23 pm:
What’s not to like? JB seems to be doing great so far.
Pick a Name…nevermind. I can’t even. Except to say - G.R.O.S.S.
- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 1:26 pm:
What state is your extremely wealthy friend a legal resident of?
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 1:26 pm:
=Teaching us the harsh reality that we have to pay for things if we want them.
That was Quinn’s undoing. The first governor in years that made us half-way live within a budget.
We didn’t like that.=
Yes. He was the one to force the pension payments that made the budget go all goofy.
- Randomly Selected - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 1:56 pm:
JB underperformed the 2018 national “Blue Wave” by 5 points according to 538. The outlier polls for JB are probably the ones with wider margins and not the ones with tighter ones. Also, not sure how many accomplishments from this session resonate with the general public the broad way something like the gas tax does so it might take awhile for this sessions action to balance out in the public mind.
Source: What does it mean that abrams and gillum are both likely to lose. 538.com
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 3:01 pm:
“Also, not sure how many accomplishments from this session resonate with the general public the broad way something like the gas tax does so it might take awhile for this sessions action to balance out in the public mind.”
Gas prices are pretty low. We will be accomplishing so much with the capital bill. The political ads should be nice. Plus, Republicans also voted for the capital bill.
What’s the “public mind?” Is it what was barraged by Rauner ads portraying JB as corrupt with Blagojevich and Madigan, and JB still crushing him?
- Randomly Selected - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 3:37 pm:
==What’s the “public mind?” Is it what was barraged by Rauner ads portraying JB as corrupt with Blagojevich and Madigan, and JB still crushing him?==
The “public mind” is causal slang for the general population, which is generally a low information voting group.
For example, you can say that the capital bill is an accomplishment (or not) as a close follower of politics but the general population might not agree with your rationale, regardless of who put the 60/30 on the bill.
JB was supposed to crush Rauner. A better indication of his actual performance was how he did against the spread. He barely covered. Hard to isolate a single reason for that.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 3:42 pm:
=== JB was supposed to crush Rauner. A better indication of his actual performance was how he did against the spread. He barely covered.===
Winning candidates make policy. Losing candidates move on.
Clinton beat Trump by 16, Pritzker won by 16.
The measures of electoral history?
No Illinois Republican Governor lost as an incumbent by 16 points in 100 years. A century.
Thoughts?
- Proud.to.be.a.liberal - Wednesday, Oct 23, 19 @ 3:58 pm:
I admit to being a Democrat, BUT this is shocking to me. He’s the most effective governor we’ve had in memory, and he is accomplishing good things for the people of Illinois. Hmmm. No good deeds go unpunished.