Dold, Bost on “most vulnerable” list
Friday, May 1, 2015
* From Politico’s “Campaign Pro”…
I don’t totally disagree with the Dold ranking. That district flips with the top of the ticket, but Dold might be able to hold on. If a Democrat does win it next year and Hillary wins the presidency, the district could flip back GOP again in 2018. A Republican president, however, could transform the district into a somewhat safer Dem seat.
But the Illinois Dems put Bost at the top of their target list after he won his first Illinois House race in a Democratic district during a big Republican year. Bost held onto that seat for 20 more years. He cannot be underestimated.
- Posted by Rich Miller 20 Comments
All we might know is, it’s gonna be close
Monday, Nov 3, 2014
* Be careful with this analysis. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog…
They’ve got Quinn winning by just 1.3 percentage points.
* Quinn won four years ago 46.79 percent to 45.94 percent - a margin of just 0.85 percent.
Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote. Unless the Libertarian can reach that number, Quinn has to better his numbers in the face of strong GOP headwinds and a gazillionaire opponent.
Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it.
According to 2010 exit polling, Democrats made up 44 percent of the electorate, Republicans were 32 percent and indies were 24 percent. Needless to say, Quinn didn’t get many independent votes. He had to scramble like mad.
* There was a big spike over the weekend in Chicago, where early voters, absentee returns and grace period voting totaled 33,625. Lines were long everywhere. I figure another 6,000 more absentees will eventually be mailed in, based on past performance, but that could increase as well. So far, 39,638 more Chicagoans have voted before election day than in 2010.
But also keep in mind that some very GOP-leaning townships in suburban Cook are reporting huge early vote/absentee numbers, as are the collar counties. Downstate remains a question. Anecdotal info abounds. The unions in Madison and Rock Island counties did an extraordinary job with the early vote, for instance.
Again, a million different factors are at play here. FiveThirtyEight predicted Bill Brady would win last time with 51..5 percent of the vote to 44 for Quinn. His model had 86.7 percent confidence in 2010, but 66 percent today.
* Also, Sun-Times…
Yes, the Democratic program is much bigger than the GOP program, but that’s because the GOP program is brand new. It’s something they didn’t have in 2010.
…Adding… These are not Democratic bastions, to say the least…
- Posted by Rich Miller 53 Comments
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