SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
All we might know is, it’s gonna be close

Monday, Nov 3, 2014

* Be careful with this analysis. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog

Quinn, of Illinois, looked to be in the most danger of these three incumbents. My polling-based analysis in early summer had him with a 25 percent chance to beat Republican Bruce Rauner. At the time, however, I warned that Quinn probably had a better shot than early polls suggested. Quinn is a Democratic governor in a Democratic state. He won in 2010 despite an approval rating of 40 percent (at best) and with only about 15 percent of voters saying the state was heading in the right direction.

This year, Quinn’s approval rating is again between 35 percent and 40 percent. And again, he looks like he may win. His campaign has somewhat successfully painted Rauner as an out-of-touch millionaire. According to a recent Chicago Tribune poll, voters are more likely to say Quinn is in touch with people like them. They also view him as more honest than Rauner, even if they think Rauner can better handle the economy.

The fight between an incumbent people don’t approve of and a challenger with his own flaws has resulted in a close race, but one in which Quinn is a favorite. The FiveThirtyEight model gives him a 66 percent chance of winning.

They’ve got Quinn winning by just 1.3 percentage points.

* Quinn won four years ago 46.79 percent to 45.94 percent - a margin of just 0.85 percent.

Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote. Unless the Libertarian can reach that number, Quinn has to better his numbers in the face of strong GOP headwinds and a gazillionaire opponent.

Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it.

According to 2010 exit polling, Democrats made up 44 percent of the electorate, Republicans were 32 percent and indies were 24 percent. Needless to say, Quinn didn’t get many independent votes. He had to scramble like mad.

* There was a big spike over the weekend in Chicago, where early voters, absentee returns and grace period voting totaled 33,625. Lines were long everywhere. I figure another 6,000 more absentees will eventually be mailed in, based on past performance, but that could increase as well. So far, 39,638 more Chicagoans have voted before election day than in 2010.

But also keep in mind that some very GOP-leaning townships in suburban Cook are reporting huge early vote/absentee numbers, as are the collar counties. Downstate remains a question. Anecdotal info abounds. The unions in Madison and Rock Island counties did an extraordinary job with the early vote, for instance.

Again, a million different factors are at play here. FiveThirtyEight predicted Bill Brady would win last time with 51..5 percent of the vote to 44 for Quinn. His model had 86.7 percent confidence in 2010, but 66 percent today.

* Also, Sun-Times

After delivering a speech to volunteers in Chicago, Durbin spoke of the Democrats’ bid to target so-called “drop-off voters” as well as the party’s field operation. The party identified 900,000 people who have voted in a presidential election but tend to skip off-year elections. Each of those voters were contacted three times, Durbin said.

Durbin said on Saturday alone, Democrats knocked on 142,000 doors statewide. […]

More than 430,000 people have turned out to vote early in Illinois, breaking a record set in 2010. Both Republicans and Democrats claimed the news was good for their side.

“We feel great. We (knocked on) 90,000 doors yesterday,” which is more doors than in 2010, Rauner campaign manager Chip Englander said. “We have the largest grassroots force that has ever been in Illinois. We have over 10,000 volunteers in every corner of the state. I think it’s been unmatched by anyone, ever.”

Yes, the Democratic program is much bigger than the GOP program, but that’s because the GOP program is brand new. It’s something they didn’t have in 2010.

…Adding… These are not Democratic bastions, to say the least

In suburban Cook County, more than 169,000 voters have cast early ballots, Cook County Clerk David Orr said.

The busiest early-voting sites in suburban Cook County were Orland Township, with 8,222 voters, followed by Arlington Heights (7,740 voters) and Northbrook (6,289).

- Posted by Rich Miller   53 Comments      

* Pressure builds on Alvarez, McCarthy
* Final day to file!
* SEIU claims court victory on health insurance
* Question of the day
* So long, Kurt!
* Will "right to work" pop up again?
* A little bit of what's at stake this week
* More poison pills
* Time heals most wounds
* NYT looks at Griffin, Rauner
* LaQuan McDonald case: Three suggestions for state action
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* BlackBerry decides to leave Pakistan due to recent demands for backdoor access
* Samsung’s mobile division may see some rearrangement in the near future
* ShiftWear sneakers use e-paper to let you change their look via smartphone
* ‘Architecture of Radio’ lets you see stunning visuals of WiFi signals
* More Chinese manufactures are making their own chips
* WhatsApp caught blocking links to competitor app
* Karalux brings BlackBerry Priv the 24K golden treatment

* Avila eager to wage 'friendly' AL Central rivalry
* Non-tender deadline looks familiar for White Sox
* Detroit Tigers make AL Central's first big splash with Jordan Zimme...
* South Side Sox' SB Nation MLB Awards voting results
* Starting Pitcher Rankings: Chris Sale and Jose Quintana maintain st...
* Scouting profile: Adam Engel
* Alex Avila will try to shed limitations with White Sox


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* All together now: Rauner, Madigan and the chanc.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....
* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois bu.....

* Student in custody for allegedly bringing gun to school
* Correction: Closer Look-Government Consolidation story
* Man dies after trapped in central Illinois corn dryer
* Judge orders Illinois to pay home health workers' insurance
* 3rd man charged with murder in Chicago triple homicide
* Cities, counties struggle during Illinois budget mess
* 1st weekend of Illinois firearm deer hunt beats last year
* Police investigate break-ins at 4 Champaign-Urbana hotspots
* Urbana chef taps family members for his kitchen staff
* Chicago police: Man steals van with 2-year-old girl inside

* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois budget mess
* Judge orders Illinois to pay home health workers' insurance
* Cities, counties struggle during Illinois budget mess
* 'Pot doctors' pushing boundaries in Illinois, other states
* Burger King manager: Police erased video of Chicago shooting
* Local free community college plans may be template for U.S.
* Rauner faces challenges in move to block refugees
* Vendor Payment Program suspended due to budget impasse
* Rauner pardons man found innocent of 1999 attack
* Springfield jobless rate falls again, to 5.1 percent

* Illinois Obamacare insurer halts new small-biz enrollees
* Chicago cop's lawyer says he may post bond soon
* Suspect in custody for U of C threats that closed campus
* Suspect arrested for U of C threat that closed campus
* U of C threat leads to arrest

* Ald. Harris quietly files to challenge Dorothy Brown
* A pair of young Blackhawks players made a trip to see Santa Claus
* Time for Blackhawks to shut down Jonathan Toews, the fighter
* Top-heavy Blackhawks still seeking a depth charge
* Cop who shot Laquan McDonald due back in court
* Is Anita Alvarez losing her Hispanic political base?
* Sports Illustrated: Blackhawks whiff on Stadium Series jerseys
* THE WATCHDOGS: How Midway clout king got out of property taxes
* Trump scraps endorsement event after black pastors object
* Chicago Teachers Union plans strike vote on Dec. 9: report

* Special prosecutor confirms Sandra Bland case nearly complete
* Man charged in threat at University of Chicago linked to Laquan McDonald shooting
* Chicago cop free after posting $1.5 million bail in Laquan McDonald's shooting
* Michigan Avenue Black Friday protests cost stores 25-50 percent of sales
* Student with gun, ammunition arrested at Barrington High School
* Teen gives tearful apology, gets probation in fatal distracted driving crash
* Reserved parking goes on sale at O'Hare, Midway airports
* Police: Babysitter goes to bar, leaves sleeping toddler in the car

* Cities, counties demand action amid Illinois budget mess
* Judge orders Illinois to pay home health workers' insurance
* James Durkin: Compromise needed to restore Illinois' standing
* Bernard Schoenburg: Book on Blagojevich impeachment lets reader 'be right there'
* Andy Shaw: It's time to crack down on no-bid contracts
* 'Pot doctors' pushing boundaries in Illinois, other states
* Burger King manager: Police erased video of Chicago shooting
* Kristina Rasmussen: Relying on one another, not the government
* Charles Krauthammer: The Syrian immigration cul-de-sac
* Rob Elliott: EPA ethanol ruling affects more than energy policy

* Dec. 2 Illinois basketball chat
* UPDATE: Man wanted in home invasion holed up in Rantoul
* Rantoul standoff
* UI chancellor: 'We needed some stability'
* The Latest: UIC student arrested after University of Chicago scare
* Farber on standoff
* Illini running back to transfer
* Police evacuate Eastlawn in Rantoul for nearby incident
* Cyber Monday sales still on top, but losing some luster
* Dec. 1 Scott Richey chat

* Canadiens goalie Carey Price to miss at least 6 weeks
* Fox Valley police reports
* Lions WR Johnson is a student, and superstar, of the game
* RB Jeremy Hill has best game in Bengals' throwback win
* South Dakota regulators grant Dakota Access Pipeline permit

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Tightening L-1 Rules in Grassley/Durbin Bi......

* Manchin, Kirk introduce bill targeting gov......

* Judge: State Must Make Payments For Home Health Care Worker Insurance
* Obama's State Of The Union Address Set For January 12
* Politicians Join Call For Anita Alvarez To Resign As Laquan McDonald Case Unfolds
* Democrats make bid to take over Chicago Republican Party
* Michael Malatesta interviewed on NTNM
* 7th Subcircuit race getting crowded, other last-day filings
* Cook County Commissioner Jesus Garcia, Chicago Aldermen Call For Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez's Resignation
* EXTRA: What is point of $1M bond?
* Resign.
* The John Arnold behind pension theft and Pay for Success.

* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller