SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 - Duckworth chances rated at 80.9 percent *** Poll: Duckworth up by 5, and three quarters say Illinois is on wrong track

Tuesday, Sep 20, 2016

* Press release

In the high-profile contest for the U.S. Senate in Illinois, the new Loras College Poll finds Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth with a five-point edge over incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk. The live-caller statewide survey of a random sample of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 13-16.

* The numbers

Tammy Duckworth 41 percent
Mark Kirk 36 percent
Unsure 22 percent

For whatever reason, they didn’t include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Not wise.

* And

Net Favorability

The new Loras Poll of Illinois asked likely voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates for U.S. Senate. The results below indicate the net favorability of the candidates (percentage favorable opinion minus percentage unfavorable opinion). Positive numbers indicate a net favorable view, whereas negative numbers would indicate a net unfavorable opinion.

    Tammy Duckworth +12
    Mark Kirk +4

In addition, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they had no opinion of Kirk, and 22 percent held no opinion of Duckworth.

“The numbers of undecided and those who have yet to form an opinion of Kirk, coupled with his net favorable rating, mean this race is not over. Add in the general volatility of this year’s campaign season, and the next several weeks could be interesting in Illinois,” Budzisz said. “That said, Duckworth holds some real advantages—including that this is a presidential election year and that tends to help Democrats in a state such as Illinois.”

How a guy can go through a high-profile Senate race and then spend almost six years in office and 31 percent still have no opinion of him is more than a bit troubling for Kirk.

* Kirk does seem to be doing better than expected in Chicago, which may be why Duckworth hit the race button yesterday

Kirk appears to have more crossover appeal than Duckworth, as 22 percent of self-identified Democrats indicate they intend to vote for the Republican Kirk, compared to 13 percent of Republicans supporting Duckworth.

Turning to those who view themselves as political independents, Duckworth has the edge over the incumbent. Duckworth receives support from 41 percent of independents compared to Kirk’s 29 percent.

Not surprising given the partisan divide on these issues, those who approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance and/or believe the country is on the right track are more likely to support Duckworth than Kirk.

20 percent of Trump supporters are undecided when it comes to the choice between Kirk and Duckworth, compared to only 12 percent of Clinton supporters who remain undecided on the Senate race.

Turning to support within regions of the state, Duckworth has a clear advantage in the City of Chicago (54 percent to 21 percent), while Kirk leads Duckworth Downstate (41 percent to 32 percent), and in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area the two split support nearly evenly, 41 percent Duckworth to 39 percent Kirk.

He’s been attacking Trump, so no surprise there.

* Now, check this out

Direction of Illinois

    Right Track 14 percent
    Wrong Direction 75 percent
    Unsure 11 percent

Not a good year to be an Illinois incumbent (although it rarely has been for quite a while).

Crosstabs are here.

*** UPDATE ***  FYI, FiveThirtyEight gives Duckworth an 80.9 percent chance of winning.

- Posted by Rich Miller   19 Comments      

* This just in... $12 million contribution to Leader Durkin, $2 million to Munger
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Duckworth doesn't play in Peoria
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Let's be careful out there
* Question of the day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Political events calendar
* *** UPDATED x1 *** What today's cyber attack could mean for election day
* Rewriting history
* Army Corps of Engineers taking back state park
* Fire everything!!!
* More horrible pension news
* More flowery Madigan praise from Bradley
* Because... Madigan!
* Looking on the dark side
* Lawyers: Mayor Emanuel is "not a policymaker for the city"
* Duckworth has huge cash advantage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...






Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Blass leaks Long Island project, the Huawei Mate 9 Pro
* AT&T buys Time Warner for $85 billion
* Let’s chat Nintendo Switch and LeReactions to LeEco Le Pro 3 | #PNWeekly 223
* Should Microsoft give up on Windows 10 Mobile?
* Google makes it easy to get screen replacements for the Pixel and Pixel XL
* Don’t expect to see any more modular smartphones from LG
* Siri and Pixel's Google Assistant Compete Side-by-Side in New Video

* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues
* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues
* International draft stands to benefit White Sox
* Davidson reflects on 'whirlwind' 2016 season
* Starting pitcher rankings: White Sox have four of them
* Podcast: 2016 Chicago White Sox Infield Review
* White Sox Rumors: Sox hire Chris Getz as new Director Of Player Dev...


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Labor super PAC links GOP, Trump - Herald & Review..
* Letter: Jimenez ads unfair to DelGiorno - The S.....
* 102316-dec-loc-dempac - Herald & Review..
* School woes seen as deeper than funding - Alton.....
* Rauner administration awards 1100 non-union wor.....
* Money keeps flowing as Election Day nears - Qua.....

* Rauner administration awards 1,100 non-union workers bonuses
* Rauner administration awards 1,100 non-union workers bonuses
* Chicago woman faces federal charges in alleged ticket scam
* Chicago to combine libraries, affordable housing in 3 sites
* Thousands expected for annual Halloween parade in Chicago
* Illinois man gets 75 years for murder of ex-girlfriend
* EXCHANGE: Cryptozoologist on hunt for knowledge
* EXCHANGE: Illinois village flushing 133 miles of water mains
* Michigan revises plan to reduce Lake Michigan fish stocking
* Drunken driving education program reinstated in Springfield

* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged
* 1,100 non-union state workers getting $3,016 bonuses
* Springfield veteran honored for volunteer work
* Central Illinois soldier killed in Afghanistan
* Rauner administration awarding more than $3 million in bonuses to non-union workers
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through stopgap budget
* Survey: 386 state jobs could relocate to Springfield
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through state's stopgap spending plan
* Illinois unemployment rate holds at 5.5 percent

* AT&T buying Time Warner in $86 billion deal
* It's official: AT&T buys Time Warner for $85 billion
* There's a new way to replace old gas mains—but not in Chicago
* Is Neapolitan's Kelly Golden the new reigning queen of fashion?
* Big rent increases headed to the burbs

* CTA running Yellow Line L service till midnight for Cubs fans
* Man shot in Chicago Lawn
* Blackhawks rally past Toronto for shootout win
* Brown: Better ways to deal with wannabe judge than indictment
* Sweet: Pritzker, Uihlein 2 of Illinois’ biggest political donors
* Sunday Sitdown: Dericka Hudson, helping girls make it in tech
* Mitchell: ‘Hey, Liberal’ gives a white perspective on integration
* 2 suburban men convicted after being caught with 128 lbs. of weed
* Man shot in Hyde Park
* Paralympic medalist will be U. of I. homecoming parade marshal

* High school coaches: Cubs success comes from hard work, team chemistry
* NLCS Game 6: Cubs lead Dodgers 5-0 in seventh inning
* AT&T buying HBO and CNN owner Time Warner for $85.4 billion
* Trump won't inherit the land, so he's sowing it with salt
* Trump vows to sue assault accusers in speech outlining 1st 100 days in office
* Attacks on the internet keep getting bigger and nastier
* Man dead, teen boy critically wounded in shootings
* Adult film actress accuses Trump of offering $10,000 to come alone to hotel suite
* Kyle Schwarber rejoining Cubs for World Series a real possibility

The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.

* Bernard Schoenburg: DelGiorno apologizes for backer's vulgar Facebook post
* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Our Opinion: With poor choices, Clinton gets nod for president
* Cooler temperatures lead to greater needs
* Women for Women tops half million mark
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged
* 1,100 non-union state workers getting $3,016 bonuses
* Springfield veteran honored for volunteer work
* Central Illinois soldier killed in Afghanistan
* Charles Krauthammer: My vote, explained

* LIVE! Selection Saturday
* Update: Woman in fatal Saline County crash identified
* A slight change to Playing Critic
* PODCAST: Fastener's Etc. Post Game 10-22-16
* RI Co. NAACP recognizes youth for achievement
* Boil Order Lifted
* Eight people involved in multiple-motorcycle accident; three injured
* Salukis fill Carbondale to celebrate SIU Homecoming
* Boys and Girls Cross Country Regional
* Class 2A Regional Boys Soccer:Urbana vs Central

* Class 5A pairings
* Boys soccer: First sectional crown for St. Edward
* Class 4A pairings
* Girls volleyball: Pancratz in the playoffs -- one last time
* Class 3A pairings

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Lanphier Students Get Government Lesson Fr......

* Dems count on Duckworth 'W,' Kirk predicts......
* Democrats count on Duckworth 'W,' Kirk pre......

* Walls closing in on Rhonda Crawford. What should the sanction be?
* Gooseberry Playlot Nears Completion On Malden
* Treasure Island Foods Slated As Anchor Retail Tenant of Maryville Development
* Where's Weyermuller?At #P**ssygrabsback protest at Chicago's Trump Tower
* Top IR picks for third week of October 2016
* Bill Murray crashes White House briefing to boost Cubs
* Comedian Bill Murray crashes White House briefing to boost Cubs
* Gerald V. Cleary appointed to Suriano vacancy in 10th Subcircuit
* Keeping retirement weird. 403(b)s and the teacher pension rip off. And the NEA.
* Opportunity Races: Vote Haney and reelect REALTOR® Patlak for county positions

* Illinois EPA Sponsors Interactive Environmental Education Event with Riverton Elementary School - Riverton Third and Fourth Graders “Dive In!” to Celebrate the Environment
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Honors Veteran Mr. George Pempek
* Illinois Partners with State of Telangana, India to Strengthen Smart State Initiatives - State to state agreement to accelerate opportunities and service to citizens
* Illinois EPA Announces Vehicle Emissions Testing Network Updates - New Contract to Offer More Efficient, Less Expensive Tests
* Annual Training Underway For Gas Station Owners, Service Technicans

      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller