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Poll: Rauner leading by 6, Topinka up by 22, Cross up by 10

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* A new poll taken for a Republican candidate has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn 43-37, with 5 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm and 16 percent undecided. Click here to read the full results, with geo-tabs.

Rauner is scoring 20 percent in Chicago, which is about where he wants to be, and leading Quinn 46-38 in suburban Cook. Not good for PQ.

The poll of 1,290 likely voters was taken September 30th by Communication Express. It has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percent. The pollster was pretty darned accurate in 2010 (off by just a couple in the governor’s race, but spot on in the US Senate and comptroller’s races), so, yes, it’s a poll for a GOP candidate, but it’s not to be taken lightly.

* The poll found Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon 53-31, with another 5 going to the Libertarian candidate.

* And Rep. Tom Cross leads Sen. Michael Frerichs 44-34, with 19 percent undecided and the Libertarian getting 3 percent.

35 percent self-identified as Democrats, 38 percent said they were independents and 27 of respondents said they were Republicans.

However, just 10 percent said they were African-Americans, which seems a bit light to me, although not to the campaign which commissioned it. Even so, that wouldn’t have moved the needle in a huge way.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 10:59 am


  1. [Insert whatever the Rauner supporters said about yesterdays poll with Quinn up, but with the names reversed.]

    – MrJM

    Comment by MrJM (@MisterJayEm) Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:05 am

  2. This sounds like about where the race is. At least the poll respondents aren’t that of an “Obama wave election,” like in the Trib poll.

    Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:05 am

  3. The takeaway at first blush?

    Sheila Simon could possibly do worse than Webster against Jesse.

    That is more than real.

    @FakeMikeFrerichs - did the poll tell the voter I was tall? I do well when people know I’m tall. #ShrinkingVioletShrinkingPollNumbers

    Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:07 am

  4. JBT winning the City of Chicago. Wow.

    Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:09 am

  5. That’s weird. Bruce is up 3.4%…

    Comment by Jimmy Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:10 am

  6. The MoE for poll subsets is higher than the overall poll and subject to more noise, obviously, but this poll’s Chicago numbers for the Governor’s race show the most favorable numbers for Rauner in months. Either a large previously undetected shift has happened with Chicago voters or it’s a bad sample/outlier.

    Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:13 am

  7. What is an “Obama wave poll” exactly? Let me guess, the Chicago Tribune is “liberal”. Ha!

    The Chicago Tribune has endorsed every Republican candidate for President of the United States of America…except for 1, since it started publishing. And had that candidate picked a qualified running mate, they would have endorsed that candidate too.

    Comment by Del Clinkton Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 11:14 am

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