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About those new polls

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* Sun-Times

Gov. Pat Quinn on Tuesday dismissed a recent poll giving his Republican opponent Bruce Rauner a 14-point lead as “phony-baloney” and suggested it’s a bit early to write his political obituary. […]

“A lot of these polls are supported by my opponents supporters, so you gotta be careful there.” […]

Madeleine Doubek, chief operating officer of Reboot Illinois, said she stands behind the poll and its methodology.

“I am completely comfortable with the results. The firm doing polling for us is reputable,” Doubek said.

She said the race is in its early stages and cautioned that the poll only represents a snapshot in time.

We got a lot of comments yesterday (many of them deleted) flat-out claiming that We Ask America is intentionally altering results because the company is owned by the Illinois Manufacturers Association, which has endorsed Bruce Rauner.

That’s ridiculous. I’ve worked with that firm a long time. No way are they doing that. The Quinnbots are hereby on notice to stop it right now or face permanent banishment.

* But the governor’s campaign is clearly not happy with the new WAA poll and sent this along yesterday…

Applying 2010 Exit Poll Party ID to today’s crosstabs gives

Rauner 42.83
Quinn 38.73
Undec 18.44

* And there are some other polls out there. For instance, a CBS/New York Times YouGov online poll found this

Rauner 46
Quinn 43
Other 2
Won’t vote 6
Not sure 1

* As can be expected, the move to an online poll has produced some sharp criticisms, but also some praise. Washington Post pollster Scott Clement…


News of the weekend: @nytimes and @CBSNewsPoll abandon decades of quality research methods.

— Scott Clement (@sfcpoll) July 27, 2014

Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report…


Here's the reality: the phone/cell only poll is dying close to dead. The only Q is what replaces it

— amy walter (@amyewalter) July 28, 2014

* Another poll taken by Mike Mckeon’s outfit found this

Rauner 40
Quinn 34
Undecided 26

But that poll also found Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading her totally unknown GOP rival by just nine points 46-37.

And the YouGov poll had Sen. Dick Durbin leading Jim Oberweis by just 48-41.

* Meanwhile, in the mayor’s race

The survey of 600 likely Chicago voters was conducted July 24-27 by San Francisco-based pollster David Binder Research, a firm known its work for President Barack Obama and numerous West Coast politicians, including mayors of Los Angeles and San Francisco.

In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that 45 percent of those questioned are committed to or leaning toward Mr. Emanuel, compared with 33 percent for Ms. Lewis. That’s a near reversal of a We Ask America poll taken for the Chicago Sun-Times this month that showed the mayor losing to Ms. Lewis by 9 points.

Just 27 percent of those sampled said they were “certain” to vote for Mr. Emanuel. And 22 percent are undecided.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:42 am

Comments

  1. Rich the interesting thing is the only reason I didn’t dismiss that poll is because I know that you have used ” We Ask America”

    Comment by wndycty Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:48 am

  2. If Rich says they do good work, I’m paying attention.

    The best Illinois pollster I have seen, from a technical POV, is Fako. But I doubt he is on this race.

    Comment by walker Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:51 am

  3. So the message is, “our incumbent is behind to a guy who’s never held public office before, BUT NOT THAT MUCH.” Good. Go with that.

    Methinks they doth protest too much.

    Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:52 am

  4. Sorry - not buying that there isn’t bias. Big stake in the governor’s race.

    Comment by anon Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:53 am

  5. Run like your behind, then the polls in your race don’t matter(?)

    Rich has been over what happened in 2010, and Rich’s word is good. Period.

    I totally believe, in the snapshot polling “today”, Quinn is down double-digits. “Maybe/Maybe Not” the 14 points, but at least 10.

    GOTV, is going to be beyond critical for Rauner to “finish”, or for Quinn to “close”…

    It’s July. It’s a race. It’s not over, both sides!

    Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:56 am

  6. ==Sorry - not buying that there isn’t bias.==

    You can’t argue bias when the question was “For whom would you vote for today?”

    Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:59 am

  7. Having met America, I’m not sure their opinion is valid, regardless of sample size and methodology.

    Comment by PMcP Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 10:00 am

  8. I hope Quinn’s people don’t really believe that the 2010 party ID breakdown is relevant to 2014. Party ID can change just like anything else, and you need to run the 2014 campaign — not 2010.

    Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 10:00 am

  9. =Rich has been over what happened in 2010, and Rich’s word is good. Period.=

    I’m not trying to troll, but how do you justify, We Ask America Polling in 2012 Congressional races, and the 2014 Republican Gubernatorial Primary? I’ll question this poll until there is some consistency. The fact of the matter is polling is behind compared to the technological advancements the past 10 years. Many people do not use land lines anymore, and it is hard to obtain cell phone numbers. Just a guess, but I’m sure more rural and older white individuals still have landlines compared to residents in urban areas and younger individuals. I’m not saying I have a correct answer, but it seems nobody has found the correct formula, to polling in the 21st Century.

    Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 10:01 am

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