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* We will likely know a whole lot more about who really won the Republican gubernatorial primary today…
We should know later today more about the results of this month’s Republican primary election for governor. State Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard are separated by just a few hundred votes.
Today’s the day all the county clerks offices around the state must finish counting absentee and provisional ballots. State Sen. Dillard says his campaign’s math shows him 300 to 400 votes behind State Sen. Brady but, Dillard notes, anything can happen with votes left to count.
Dillard says, “Clearly, I’d rather be in Senator Brady’s position than mine, but I want to make sure all 110 election authorities have double-checked everyone and that the stats statewide that people work off of are accurate”.
* Crain’s claimed last week that Sen. Brady compared the experience of 27 year-old GOP lt. governor nominee Jason Plummer to Thomas Jefferson’s alleged writing of the US Constitution at a tender age. Actually, Jefferson wasn’t even in the country when the Constitution was drafted and approved. But an audio recording of Brady speaking to reporters last week has Brady comparing Plummer’s experience to Jefferson’s drafting of the Declaration of Independence at the age of 33.
It’s still probably unwise to compare Plummer to a founding father, but at least when talking to reporters Brady knew the difference between the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.
* And my syndicated newspaper column looks back at Brady’s legislative record and looks ahead at the election. This is an abridged version of the look subscribers got at Brady’s record last week…
One of the biggest doubts about state Sen. Bill Brady’s gubernatorial campaign - assuming he survives a potential recount of the Republican primary - is whether he can transform himself from a primary candidate into a serious general election candidate.
Like most members of the state House and Senate, Brady has never once faced a real general election opponent.
Brady, of Bloomington, focused almost solely on his downstate base and barely campaigned at all in the suburbs during his Republican gubernatorial bid, so independent suburban women might as well be foreigners to him. Since Illinois is such a “Blue” state, he’ll have to convince thousands of Democratic-leaning voters to cross over for him.
After almost two decades of “speaking Republican,” Brady essentially needs to learn how to speak the language of a general election.
One thing he’ll need to do with that new language is explain his voting record. My interns Barton Lorimor and Dan Weber helped me scour Brady’s legislative record last week. Here are some of the results.
Many of the bills Brady introduced since 1993 show he can make a good case that he is a reformer. He has sponsored legislation to limit campaign contributions, for instance.
Brady sponsored a bill to prohibit state contractors from contributing to legislative campaigns. He put forward a bill to prohibit any reimbursement for out-of-state travel if a campaign fundraiser was involved in the trip. He also sponsored a bill to shine some light onto the always controversial legislative pork program.
Brady sponsored several bills that will probably appeal to independents. Brady was chief sponsor of a House bill in 2005, for instance, that created an Illinois Conservation Corps for young adults. Brady co-sponsored a bill (along with Barack Obama) for seniors to make sure they didn’t lose any benefits under the federal prescription drug program.
On the other hand, there are plenty of bills and votes lurking in Brady’s record that could hurt him this fall.
For instance, Brady sponsored legislation that allowed pharmacists to refuse to dispense emergency contraception based on their religious beliefs.
Sen. Brady is 100 percent pro-life, so he sponsored legislation to ban the use of state funds for stem cell research. Brady has sponsored legislation to repeal the state’s Firearm Owner’s Identification Card. And he has repeatedly introduced constitutional amendments to do away with the State Board of Education.
Sponsorship is only one aspect of a legislator’s history. Their voting records are often more important and usually contain far more landmines.
Brady voted against a bill requiring a state insurer to cover mammograms and pap tests, probably because the coverage list also included emergency contraception. He voted against the statewide smoking ban.
Sen. Brady voted against a bill creating a physician loan repayment program for doctors who agreed to practice in Illinois for at least three years. Brady has consistently voted against increasing the minimum wage. He voted against a bill to ban large-capacity magazines in certain guns.
A couple of years ago, state Sen. Linda Holmes (D-Aurora) was attacked by the Republicans for voting in favor of a few tax exemptions. An exemption on certain vehicles was deemed a “tax break for the rich so they can get deals on their limos.” Tax exemptions for racehorses and planes were portrayed in a similar manner. Like Holmes, Brady voted for all three bills.
The Pat Quinn campaign believes it can easily portray Brady as an out-of-touch, wealthy ultra-conservative this fall.
To overcome this, Brady needs to make this race essentially a rerun of the 1980 Carter-Reagan campaign. Carter, after all, was overjoyed when the Republican Party nominated that unelectable right-winger from California. But Reagan’s strong personality, the tanking economy, rising crime, Carter’s bumbling and a huge overreach by the Democratic congressional majority, along with the twin international embarrassments of the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, combined to override the ideological divide. Democrats voted for Reagan in droves.
If you substitute “Rod Blagojevich” and “Scott Lee Cohen” for the USA’s international humiliations of 1980, our Illinois situation looks eerily similar.
Late last week, Brady again proposed permanently outlawing gay marriages and civil unions. That sort of thing will be great for the Republican base, but it’s time Brady started learning to speak to everyone else.
For a little context, last year’s Paul Simon Institute poll tested a couple of hot-button social issues…
* The report noted the respondents answering spread themselves nearly equally among three alternatives regarding same-sex unions:
29.3 percent favored full marriage rights.
35.3 percent favored civil unions.
31.3 percent favored no legal recognition.
* In terms of the legality of abortion, most of the respondents took a middle position of three offered:
Legal under any circumstances, 28.3 percent.
Legal only under certain circumstances, 51 percent.
Illegal under all circumstances, 17.8 percent.
* Brady on Fox Chicago Sunday…
* Related…
* GOP defends Dillard’s decision not to concede
* Brady bides time, but looks ahead to race with Quinn
* Brady, Dillard play nice as final GOP votes await counting
* Local Republicans Anxious About Election Results
* GOP lieutenant governor pick talks about his past, vision for office
* GOP Lt. Gov. nominee Plummer says nothing to fear in his background
* Like Cohen, GOP nominee spent big in lt. governor bid
* Reading between the lines of GOP lieutenant governor nominee’s resume
* Lawmakers trying to sort out future of lieutenant governor’s office
* Two proposals would make next lite gov the last one
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:10 am
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I’ll say one good thing about Brady:
Unlike Democratic and Republican legislative leaders how raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars, he only took $500 from the Race Track industry and that several years ago before the legislature passed the bill that became one of Blagos articles of impeachment.
On the other hand, he isn’t very bright..
Comment by gary klass Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:19 am
ooops “who” , not “how”
Comment by gary klass Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:20 am
So far Carroll, Ford, Lee, and Whiteside Counties have released official vote counts. Iriquois County has a final count produced last week but it doesn’t say ‘official’
Cook County and Chicago have consistently updated their sites, and Kane County has updated theirs.
As it stands with the changes from above: Brady’s lead of 420 in the AP count from Election night has shrunk to 336. This should be interesting!!
train111
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:26 am
I wouldn’t give Brady a hard time over saying Constitution instead of Declaration of Independence - even before this, I assumed he misspoke.
But I would quibble with the assertion that Jason Plummer at 27 and Thomas Jefferson at 33 are comparable in experience. For starters, 6 years is a big difference when you’re around the age of 30. I’m a lot wiser now than I was when I was 27. 6 years is +/- 20% of your life at the age of 27 to 33.
And, of course, Jefferson is one of the most incredibly accomplished people in the history of the United States. From Jefferson’s bio on Wikipedia:
Jefferson inherited 5000 acres and dozens of slaves at 14.
He graduated with Highest Honors from the College of William and Mary at the age of 18.
He was admitted to the bar at 20.
He was elected to the Virginia House of Burgesses at 21.
What did Plummer do by the time he was 21?
A very dumb comparison.
Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:35 am
If I were advising Brady I would tell him to hammer the mantra “our state is not business friendly — these individual programs mean nothing if we can’t stop the job creators from fleeing Illinois” and couple that with ads about all the Dem tax hikes, anti-reform votes, etc. If I were advising Quinn I would try to couple a “tough medicine because we’re not heartless” theme combined with some program to ensure fiscal responsibility in the future (I would order a 5% cut on all departments except police/jails to couple with the tax hikes).
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:38 am
[…] Rich points out he was misquoted–so my apologies. […]
Pingback by ArchPundit | Was It Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?–Retracted Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:40 am
(snark)
Pres. John Adams: “st. Senator Brady, i worked with Thomas Jefferson, he was a rival, but before that, a friend of mine. Sen. Brady, “Jay-Jay” is no Thomas Jefferson.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:46 am
“..he sponsored legislation to ban the use of state funds for stem cell research.”
Yeah, whatever happened to all those millions and millions of Illinois taxpayer dollars Blago threw at stem cell research back in 2007?
We ever get anything for that money? Or was it just tossed into the pork (albeit politicialy correct) black hole?
How many mammograms could that have paid for?
Comment by Johnny USA Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:49 am
Legal under any circumstances, 28.3 percent.
So, the Personal PAC view is only supported by roughly the same number of people who voted for Alan Keys (although, certainly not the SAME people).
Does that make them and their legislative supporters an extreme view?
Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 9:56 am
The Comparison of Founding Father Thomas Jefferson, and “Jay-Jay” Plummer;
Thomas Jefferson – Graduated with Honors from William and Mary at age 18
Jay-Jay – Graduated the University of Illinois almost 5 years ago.
Thomas Jefferson – Graduated law school at 20
Jay-Jay – Making THE difference at the U of I student council
Thomas Jefferson – elected to the House of Burgess at 21
Jay-Jay – At 21, Went to Kam’s for “quarter beers”
Thomas Jefferson – at age 27, leveled the ground, and started to design the structure known as Monticello, a structural marvel of the ages.
Jay-Jay- Age 27, From the Chicago Tribune: “I’ve driven trucks, I’ve stacked lumber, I’ve worked sales, I’ve worked the development side,” Plummer told the Tribune Friday. “I know hard work, and I had to buy my car. There’s not charity there.”
I had to buy my car ….
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:10 am
I’ve heard Brady proudly announcing himself as a “Reagan Republican”. To me this spells ‘wealthy, privileged,out of touch with the electorate.’
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:17 am
I listened to the clip a few times…did anyone else think Brady said Plummer is “incapable of serving that, uh, in that capacity.” Maybe I heard it wrong, but it certainly sounded funny.
Comment by imeanreally Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:24 am
I dunno, Cheryl. Reagan nearly ran the table at the Electoral College as an incumbent in a year when the conditions were right. “Out of touch” candidates don’t do that. I don’t expect Brady to have the same appeal, but conditions and voter sentiment are more in his favor than, say, 2 or 4 years ago.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:29 am
If Brady was trying to capture the “blue collar, fiscal conservative, family valued” Reagan-Democrats, he would be better served with the mantra “Are you better off since Rod and Pat took over?”
I wonder why Brady and Co. are going with the social issues early and repeating them, when the pocketbook is such a cozy issue to hit people at home, and to show the Keystone Kops running the Guv’s office before and since.
Brady has seroius issues with a voting record (anyone who votes in the GA would!) but he is not the linked LG to Rod, and not the current Guv who couldn’t get things back on track…
Well, its out there, in February, mind you, and with spring and summer still ahead, Brady will be answering more questions, then in a position of strength to force the questions to Quinn like “Ask Guv. ,Quinn how he expects to do ….”
If, and if only, the stars can align for Brady and he hammers this “better off - Rod and Pat” all summer while that little trial is going on the 300 block of South Dearborn, he is in the game big-time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:43 am
I think Sen. Brady might have had the same history professor as Sen. Blutarsky at Faber College.
“Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?”
Geez, dude, don’t compare Plummer to Jefferson, and if you must, know what you’re talking about.
If you’ll recall, Rush mixed up the Declaration and the Constitution when he spoke at the national GOP get-together last year. Doh.
Still, I love the idea of an Illinois Conservation Corps. To introduce some of these hard-case young men hanging on the corner to the virtues of a job well-done would be worth every penny.
If he would go all out for that, I’d vote for him and hold my nose on all the other whack job stuff.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:55 am
OW, I like it. Variant: Are you better off than you were eight years ago? How about four? Would you believe one? Would you like to call your senator?
Comment by excessively rabid Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:55 am
If Brady wins, Dillard should run for Congress, if Rep. Biggert decides to retire in 2012 or ‘14. If Dillard demands a recount and loses, he’ll be less likely to win another election.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:03 am
Reagan’s political growth took place during a time when Washington was lead by “center-left” politics. Consequentially, Reagan better understood how to campaign and communicate to voters who considered conservatives obsolete.
Brady’s political growth took place after Reagan’s success, and the Gingrich Revolution. Consequentially, Brady doesn’t understand how to campaign and communicate to voters who considered conservatives obsolete.
Reagan’s years of success as governor of California generated a record that defanged critics claiming that Reagan was a monster. Brady doesn’t have that benefit.
Reagan chose Bush as his VP, calming those concerned about his age and possible extremism. Brady has Plummer, who doesn’t calm any concerns.
Reagan knew how to campaign in San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, San Diego, as well as Orange County. Brady knows how to campaign in Bloomington and Normal.
Reagan was a die-hard Democrat who campaigned nationally with Roosevelt, Truman, Stevenson and Kennedy - then was a Democrat for Goldwater. Reagan wasn’t a Republican until he ran for governor in 1966. When Reagan was a Democrat, Democrats were pro-defense, anti-big business, and pro-labor. Reagan was a long time union president.
Reagan spoke Democrat.
Brady has always been a Republican. Plummer has always been a kid.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:07 am
–…the Gingrich Revolution.–
I must have missed that. What happened?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:12 am
It skipped Illinois, remember? I wrote about that a few times.
Illinois didn’t have either a Reagan or a Gingrich revolution.
That is a big reason it is a blue state.
And has been economically dead since 1990.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:15 am
Perhaps the next time Sen. Brady needs help in remembering the difference between the authors of the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution, he sould ask his running-mate, “Baby-Face” Plummer. After all, “Baby-Face” is only about a decade removed from having been taught that in his high school U.S. History class, and should recall it (assuming Plummer didn’t sleep thru that day’s class).
Comment by fedup dem Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:21 am
===the Gingrich Revolution===
Oh I remember that. That was when people like John Shimkus voluntarily limited their own terms. It’s too bad, because Washington could really use more leaders who keep their word like former Congressman Shimkus. Whatever happened to him?
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:21 am
VMan, Illinois, like most of the country, voted for Reagan twice. Don’t compare him to a clown like Gingrich.
Fill me in on the great success stories of those who bought into the “Gingrich Revolution.” How did that manifest itself, anyway?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:24 am
Train111 -
Most of those counties are from the ‘North’, so I would expect them to favor Dillard.
When all votes are accounted for, I believe Brady will be ahead. I’m not predicting by how many votes, but ahead.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:51 am
All these attempts to rip and shred Brady and Plummer, over misquotes, glosses over one major factor: They’re running against the record of Quinn, TBD, and the state of the State. That, more than whether Jefferson was more experienced at 33 than Plummer at 27, will determine who wins in November.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 11:51 am
===”…Brady and Plummer, over misquotes…”===
Uh, those aren’t misquotes … and if you would like, there is a growing list of Plummer quotes in the past 2 weeks that just knock you off your chair.
To the point, Those poll numbers on the social issues should really force the hand of Brady to tact towards fiscal issues, I guess Brady hasn’t gotten to those yet, but I am sure he will.
Plummer’s worst day; today, because now that SLC is gone, if I can paraphrase the “Farmer in the Dell”, a game kids like so it should be up Jay-Jay’s alley; “Jay-Jay stands alone, hi-ho the dario, Jay-Jay stands alone.” If he thinks Bernie and the Trib have been tough thus far ….
First, go read Bernie’s article on Jay-Jaym then go read the Trib article. Amazing
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Sorry, that was me … “Farmer in the Dell” …I do not want to be accused of posting under 37 different names …
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:03 pm
–All these attempts to rip and shred Brady and Plummer, over misquotes,–
What misquotes? He said it, didn’t he? No one asked Brady to compare Plummer to Jefferson and screw it up, he did it on his own.
No victim there, brother.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:03 pm
I don’t like Brady because he’s a shill for Walmart, always trying to push to override Chicago’s home rule decisions against more of the big box retailer. How republican is that?
Comment by Gregor Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:18 pm
=I’ve heard Brady proudly announcing himself as a “Reagan Republican”. To me this spells ‘wealthy, privileged,out of touch with the electorate.’=
Breaking news: ALL Illinois politicians are out of touch with the electorate.*
*see turnout
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:23 pm
VMan, Illinois, like most of the country, voted for Reagan twice. Don’t compare him to a clown like Gingrich.
Jim Thompson was supposed to run for president in 1980 for the GOP - not Reagan. The GOP after Eisenhower was moderate, a me-too pro-business political party. Goldwater flopped. Nixon was a flaming liberal economically, and Ford was similar. Both Nixon and Ford believed in Kissinger and soft diplomacy with the Soviets. Charles Percy was a Republican. This was the political part in power when Thompson became governor. Jim fit that mold. Thompson was seen as a future GOP presidential candidate.
Before Thompson could be a presidential candidate, Reagan happened. The GOP turned away from the moderates towards the conservatives. By 1980, Thompson’s chances were gone. But Thompson was still governor for the entire decade, a decade of moderate GOP rule in Illinois.
By the time Ryan was finished in 2002, it was all over. The Thompson legacy of Illinois GOP leadership was left with only one statewide GOP official - Judy Barr Topinka - who ran, and lost, to Blagojevich in 2006.
Then there were none.
So the Reagan Revolution, and the Gingrich Revolution bypassed Illinois. Jim Edgar was the closest we had, but he was really a Thompson moderate with Downstate roots who continued toting the Thompson moderate gubernatorial routine. Edgar was no revolutionary.
As a result, Illinois has never benefitted from having conservatives strip the state’s status quo and reorder it politically - even for a single term. The State hasn’t even tried. Illinois is now a one note Nelly. A single flavor ice cream parlor filled with “Corruption Chip Ripple”.
Consequentially, Illinois, like other once-mighty industrial states has voters who have never seen a conservative government. This makes guys like Brady look like alien beings to us.
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980. Then he beat Mondale. So, it wasn’t like Illinoisans were buying into GOP conservatism. Carter and Mondale were total losers - landslide victims. The moderate Republicans ruling Illinois during the 1980s and 1990s muffled any real conservative revolution, as seen in other big states - especially Texas. If you recall, Texas didn’t even elect a GOP governor until White back in the 1980s. Texas went from Johnson/Bensen liberals to Reagan/Bush conservatives during the same era Illinois had Thompson.
I think it is important for states to have pendulum swings. It helps them keep a real center. Illinois’ pendulum didn’t swing right when most of the US did. When Brady claims that Illinois is a “center-right” state, he is wrong.
Illinois is as blue as Massachusetts. That is why Scott Brown excited the Illinois GOP. However, unlike Brady, Brown’s political stands have been tempered like Mark Kirk, a conservative respectful of his Democratic supporters.
Brady? Forgetaboutit.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:56 pm
“Illinois is as blue as Massachusetts.”
Oh, come on. Illinois has seven Republican Congressmen. Massachusetts has zero.
Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:09 pm
as blue
I didn’t say “only” blue. Massachusetts has had three GOP governors during the same time they hadn’t any GOP congressman.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:11 pm
All three to the Left of Beth Coulson.
Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:16 pm
This “outrage” over Plummer is pathetic. The $13,000 rent is misleading, as Congressman Shimkus’ campaign paid for half of the rent, as they shared the office space.
Comment by Downstate Conservative Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:41 pm
Well looks like it’s time for the kick Bill’s butt routine like last time. Hope also that Dillard doesn’t screw it up with a long & expensive recount to satisfy his ego. Brady won, Dillard didn’t…it happens
Comment by downstater Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 6:17 pm
===This “outrage” over Plummer is pathetic. The $13,000 rent is misleading, as Congressman Shimkus’ campaign paid for half of the rent, as they shared the office space.===
Very well, we will be half-outraged, but fully outraged at the $13,000 price tag … Plummers soaking it to the party AND Shimkus!
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 10:54 pm
$13,000 rent for prime office space for over a year is “soaking it to the party”? Get real. If anything, the 60-70 other tenants of the complex should be outraged that the party was only charged $13,000.
Comment by downstate conservative Wednesday, Feb 17, 10 @ 3:49 pm