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* Eric Zorn makes an important point about polling in his column today. He notes that four years ago, much like this time around, polls showed Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich trailing his Republican opponent, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.
The big difference between then and now was that Blagojevich began running TV ads in mid April bashing Topinka…
Less than one month after the primary, he was on the air with a series of “What’s she thinking?” TV commercials attacking Topinka’s opposition to a hike in the minimum wage and to an assault weapons ban.
Even though Topinka was fairly well-known to voters — three-term state treasurer, suburban social moderate — the Blagojevich campaign defined her as an erratic extremist before she could define herself, thus forcing her to play defense through the summer and fall.
Those ads tanked JBT’s numbers for good. She dropped to ten points behind and never moved any closer. Another difference between then and now, Zorn rightly notes, is that Gov. Quinn doesn’t have the sort of campaign apparatus that RRB had back then. He’s also lacking Blagojevich’s giant pile of cash…
But when Quinn does finally hit the campaign trail, he’ll do so with far less money than Blagojevich had, in part because of new state ethics laws that block major state contractors from filling political coffers. Though updated campaign-finance reports aren’t yet available, we know Quinn entered the last few weeks of the primary season with a cash balance of about $3 million, compared to an estimated $14 million Blagojevich had heading into his lightly contested 2006 primary. Blagojevich ended up spending $27 million on his re-election bid.
Zorn adds more context on his blog…
Topinka and Blagojevich raised nearly identical amounts of money during the stretch run, roughly $4.9 million, but Blagojevich had more than $12.2 million in the bank at the end of June, compared to $1.5 million for Topinka.
Quinn likely spent every dime he had in the primary. And because he has angered the public employee unions to no end, he doesn’t have access to their cash right now when he may need it most. And then there’s this…
Furthermore, 2006 was a good year for Democrats overall — they picked up six seats in the U.S. Senate and 30 in the U.S. House, running against the party of a Republican president with sagging approval ratings. Today, every projection has 2010 being a good year for Republicans — they figure to pick up dozens of seats running against the party of a Democratic president with sagging approval ratings.
2006 was a great year for the Illinois Senate Democrats, who picked up a super majority. Speaker Madigan refused to go on offense, believing Blagojevich would be a drag on the ticket. Blagojevich’s close pal Tony Rezko was, indeed, indicted just days before the election, but Madigan was dead wrong about the environment and he picked up just one seat. That inaction could cost him the House this fall if the Republicans manage to pull off another landslide year, but I digress.
Quinn is essentially fiddling while Rome burns.
* Other campaign stuff…
* Ill. State Rep Jumps in Chicago Aldermanic Race
* Trying to read the tea leaves: The Tea Party, the incipient movement that claims to be committed to reining in what they perceive as big government, appears to be motivated by more than partisanship and ideology. Approximately 45% of Whites either strongly or somewhat approve of the movement. Of those, only 35% believe Blacks to be hardworking, only 45% believe Blacks are intelligent, and only 41% think that Blacks are trustworthy.
* Bundle of Republicans seek national committeman’s job
* Township Democrats spurn corrupt post
* Kirk holds fundraising edge on Giannoulias
* Giannoulias tries to change focus from Broadway Bank
* Giannoulias seeks distance from Broadway Bank controversy
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:40 am
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I don’t know what the tea party is either, but without it, Obama would be coasting right now because the gop establishment is totally lost and still in post bush/hastert hangover mode and I say this as one of the most partisan republicans who comments here.
Before the media goes into the blago trial tank for the next 7 months or whatever, I would also like to know who my favorite politician mark kirk intends to be as a us senator. The guy that told rove we had to leave iraq and told dan seals we didn’t need to surge in afghanistan, or the guy that was gung ho about the war on terror. I am also curious as to whether he’ll be the prochoice moderate he was until he ran for the senate or the guy that became anti-abortion when he first ran.
And again I say these things as after team america and louis astaves, probably kirk’s biggest fan here.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:49 am
The TEA Party is an astroturf group created by GOP lobbyist and former Texas Congressman Dick Armey.
They do what he says, and their goal is not to make the country better, or even fight for lower taxes. Its to elect Congressional Republicans.
That’s why you don’t hear a peep out of the Tea Party about the 13 Republican governors who have raised taxes in this recession.
In fact, because they are so focused on Washington, D.C., you don’t hear Dick Armey’s Tea Party talking about state or local elected officials at all.
Of course, if Armey ever starts lobbying in Springfield, I’m sure that’ll change.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:54 am
Let me quote you
“The Tea Party, the incipient movement that claims to be committed to reining in what they perceive as big government, appears to be motivated by more than partisanship and ideology. ”
This is really a cheap. Since important elements of the union movement have a history of racism. Who could forget that Wal-Mart is the largest private sector employer of African-Americans yet union dominated Chicago wants to keep them out? Or the Davis-Bacon Act was supposed prevent cheap negro labor?
Comment by Steve Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:55 am
BTW, congrats to State Rep. Will Burns on making the leap to the Chicago City Council.
His leadership in Springfield will be missed, but on the Chicago City Council its sorely needed.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:55 am
I don’t think Quinn will ever mind being contrasted with Blago in the media.
And, given the state of the economy right now, and the budget mess, I don’t think Quinn wants Illinoisans to make up their mind about the Governor’s race sooner than later.
Comment by George Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 11:57 am
===Let me quote you===
Let me clue you in. This is a blog. That quote is from somebody else. It is clearly linked. Get a clue.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Plus - since when were we talking about unions and Walmart?
Comment by George Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:09 pm
I liked this article a lot. Any contrast between Blago and Quinn is always a good thing. Once Quinn starts pointing how far-right Brady is on a lot of social issues and how Brady’s economic policy is both naive and, in some parts, unconstitutional, I expect many voters to start saying “what was Bill Brady thinking?”.
Comment by jonbtuba Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Sometimes electoral history isn’t helpful because a past election isn’t spun in a positive way and this mistake takes on a life as it’s own version of the truth. 2006 is one of those elections.
The 2006 Illinois election has been spun badly. When Blagojevich won both the nomination and the election, a mistake occurred. But instead of laying the blame on the Illinois Democratic Party for producing a Blagojevich Administration, the voters were blamed for voting for the Illinois Democrat by the party that produced him. Worse, that has become a major spin - that voters are stupid, they don’t know how to vote, they don’t know what they are doing, they are lemmings that will follow anyone with campaign cash, that Illinois is so Democratic it will re-elect even a Blagojevich, on and on.
That is just a very bad precedent both gubernatorially, as well as democratically. Since voters do choose, their accumulated knowledge and wisdom has to be respected, not denounced. Yet, for the past four years, Illinois voters have been denounced, most notably by the very party they re-elected to office in 2006. This isn’t supposed to happen, but it did. Blagojevich’s impeachment and removal turned the majority party in Illinois into the role of an abusive spouse with no respect for those who supported them.
Democratic leaders did this, instead of humbling acknowledging their incredible failure when nominating and electing Rod Blagojevich twice. Dan Hynes and a few other leaders did issue a soft apology, yet the Party behaved as though it wasn’t their fault that they created the Blagojevich Administration. Instead, the blamed Illinois voters for voting for their candidates.
This forces 2006 into a fun-house mirror from which to glean any electoral patterns as to why Blagojevich won, and why voters supported him. Since the party that elected him now bashes the voters who empowered them, we now have to work around the meme that voters are stupid, instead of what is normally done when reviewing elections - that is, believing that voters are right, wise and prudent in their choices.
So election 2006 wasn’t tainted by the results of the election - it was tainted in order to spin excuses by the winning party to cover it’s massive failure in creating a corrupted, incompetent gubernatorial administration, and it’s re-election.
Had the Illinois Democrats been honest to Illinoisans, the voter’s choice in 2006 would be held in respect, the party would have publically reformed itself and issued apologies, and voters would have more faith in the political system this year.
Look, the GOP did a similar thing when Ryan was indicted. And what did they get? They got political Siberia. Why? Because voters hadn’t elected a Democratic governor in thirty years, and simply turned to the other party. Now that the Democrats have been exposed, Illinoisans don’t have their usual choice - switching parties, because the GOP is a zombie.
I recommend that Zorn and his ilk, elevate Illinois voters as he would had they elected Topinka in 2006 and then resume his prognosticating regarding the 2010 elections. If he did this, he would have a better handle on what is happening regarding this gubernatorial election.
It is high time to stop bashing voters as ignorant racists, narrow minded lemmings, ignorant rabble, and boobs and fools easily led. Look at how he describes the Tea Party and tell me that he has discovered that bashing voters is a stupid thing to do, as well as unbelievably undemocratic. No - the losers who have screwed up our government has made it fashionable to fingerpoint at the very people who elected them to screw it up.
Talk about dishonesty!
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Parker’s survey looks loaded. He’s released the data sets he wants to release when he wants to release them.
Rich has his own markup. What else is new? “This is a quote.” * This is also a quote?
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:25 pm
Brennan - it is inside a block quote.
Comment by George Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:41 pm
Rich you need a little count down (up) clock for Quinn - days without a campaign manager
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:42 pm
The Tea Partiers and the right wing extremists won’t like Zorn’s column or the survey he refers to one little bit. They refuse to believe what their demographic profile says they are. Just like if you don’t agree with them, then you are automatically a socialist, maxist, communist, etc. These folks are the perfect victims and while they are very loud they represent a very small minority. A minority who will ceretainly scream foul when the election doesn’t follow their script. The mainstream GOP is fearful of this bunch since their rable-rousing is forcing the party so far right. Just look at the latest straw poll from this weekend. Just one point separated Romney and Paul. Yikes!
With all their goofy signs, loud rhetoric, threats of violence and outright distortions the moderates among us will certainly be shopping for something else. The Tea Party has reached critical mass and is probably about as big as it’s gonna be. Why the media continues to cover every anti-government Tea Party rally on every public square attended by 20 people is a mystery to me.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 12:49 pm
The Tea Partiers and the right wing extremists won’t like Zorn’s column or the survey he refers to one little bit.
And which one are you, the tea partier or the right wing extremist?
Or else, how would you know?
What are you basing your incredible insight on except personal feelings and anecdotes? How is it you feel capable of knowing this? Have you dehumanized your tea party neighbors to the point where you think you know their own political beliefs better? How stupid do you think people are? Do you even support democracy anymore, or just for people with whom you can identify?
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 1:00 pm
As most remember ‘06 Madigan was busy fighting primaries inspired by Blagoof and his bagmen around the state. The pick-up of one was nice accoplishment. It is hard to see the StateWideTom making any real gains
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Hey VanMan….you pretty much prove my point. Thanks, life is good!
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 1:10 pm
===But instead of laying the blame on the Illinois Democratic Party for producing a Blagojevich Administration, the voters were blamed for voting for the Illinois Democrat by the party that produced him.===
What silly nonsense.
Blagojevich was reelected in 2006. He did not have party support the first time he ran in 2002. He won a primary. That means voters are implicated. He then won a general. He won a primary in 2006 as well. And then the general. Absolving voters of their mistakes is, frankly, unAmerican.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 1:10 pm
===Madigan was busy fighting primaries inspired by Blagoof===
There were lots of those in ‘08 but MJM still managed to pick up tons of seats.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 1:20 pm
Equating the Tea Party with racism is BS.
This is just a Democrat Party tactic because the Tea Party continues to gain ground and credibility with the American people. And it scares the leaving bejesus out of the Dems.
The fact is, citizens -especially the middle class - are sick and tired of big government, corrupt politicians and giving their hard earned tax dollars to pathetic programs that do not work. (Note: Understand that funding important areas such as education, roads, defense and healthcare are important. I’m referring to the absolute wasted social programming/pork dollars spent.)
Comment by 2010 Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 3:08 pm
The Tea Party isn’t so much a coherent movement but license for a tired crew of chronic whiners to congregate, misbehave and get it all off their chests. I hope they all feel better soon. It sure passes the time on cable TV.
These guys always thrive on hard times. Once unemployment drops below 9%, they’re old news.
Cry me a river about how bad you have it in this country. And anyone who thinks they’ve lost their liberties here — under Bush or Obama — ought to sober up and take a good hard look at the rest of the world.
Comment by wordslinger63 Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 3:25 pm
Hey VanMan….you pretty much prove my point. Thanks, life is good!
When one reads through your postings, it appears that what you claim proves your point, only depends on how you spin it, regardless of any facts or rational thought.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 3:27 pm
Hey VanMan:
Huh????
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 3:31 pm
Once unemployment drops below 9%, they’re old news.
When the Tea Party began, the unemployment rate was 8.4%, there was no Obamacare, and there was no news coverage given it from any major news source for eleven months. The T.E.A. (Taxed Enough Already) Party predates all that.
It seems to be a revolt against Big Government and high taxes as determined by an extremely large bloc of voters encompassing all political parties, genders, ages and races.
I don’t know what the future holds, but after a year, it appears that all the “experts” have been dead wrong. So, since I am no expert, I’m unwilling to put an expiration date on them.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 4:00 pm
VMan, you’re probably right. Fox discovered there is a constant market for confused resentment — in these times, to the tune of about $750 million a year in Fox News profits.
But if unemployment is under 9%, the market is smaller.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 4:09 pm
Well said VanillaMan.
Comment by 2010 Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 4:10 pm
Wordslinger
Note that Fox News is in the top five cable networks watched in the U.S. It’s doing something right for all viewers.
(FYI - MSNBC and CNN ranked much, much lower…didn’t hit top ten, or twenty. In fact, the Cartoon Network beat them)
Comment by 2010 Tuesday, Apr 13, 10 @ 4:13 pm