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* From the Kankakee Daily Journal…
Sunday night, Illinois Republican Chairman Pat Brady told guests at the Kankakee County Lincoln Day dinner that Republicans are ahead in both the races for governor and U.S. Senator in Illinois, that they may pick up two congressional seats and that they could even take back the Illinois House.
* The Question: What do you think of Chairman Brady’s prediction that the House Republicans might actually win control of the Illinois House come November? Explain.
…Adding… The HGOPs would need to pick up at least 12 seats to win a majority. They picked up 13 in 1994.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:21 am
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Oh brother!
The situation is now so bad, even Brady sees it!
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:24 am
happy talk at best. When I see the smug looks wiped off the faces of dan seals, jeff schoenberg, susan garett and karen may I’ll know the democrats are in deep trouble. Until then, I have serious doubts.
Comment by shore Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:25 am
I just don’t see it happening. Brady’s talk was bravado before a partisan crowd.
Comment by Fed-up Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:29 am
Brady was speaking at the Kankakee Country Club, so I’m not surpirsed at his optimism. The prospects for the IL GOP always look good from the confines of the exclusive little club on the river, with its tight fairways and excellent greens. From across the street, you’re likely to get a different opinion. I’m pretty sure the GOP message inside the K3 Club is always the same — this is our year!
I’m not sure what they were serving at the dinner, but if they think the GOP has a shot at taking back the Illinois House, I’ll have what they’re having, and make mine a double!
It’s going to be a very good year for Illinois Republicans, but it ain’t going to be that good.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:32 am
Highly optimistic, the current spread being so large, but that’s his job.
Still, Dems have nowhere to go in this state but down.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:37 am
Overly optimistic. Best shot is at the Senate seat.
Comment by Niles Township Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:41 am
overly optimistic talk from a guy who is paid to do exactly that, be optimistic, at least in public.
Comment by Living in Oklahoma Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:41 am
Pat Brady is the same guy who promised John McCain would do well in Illinois in 2008.
Republicans will never have a House majority as long as it’s Madigan vs. Cross. We’re talking the N.Y. Yankees vs. a pre-school t-ball team.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:45 am
It is within the realm of possibility. But I do think he’s overshooting a bit. The most likely outcome will be these net gains for the Illinois Republicans:
1 US Senate Seate
2 Statewide constitutional offices
1 Congressional seat (I’m going to say 14th)
A handful of legislative seats but not control of either chamber
As badly as Quinn performs, I still don’t see anyway that Brady beats him. This state ain’t ready for that kind of conservative, no matter how bad it gets.
Voters might be angry and fed up, but they still feel how they feel about teaching creationism in the schools, killing puppies and abortion rights, etc.
Comment by siriusly Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:46 am
Kankakee has a Country Club?
Verbal nothingness…it’s what the audience wanted to hear for their $35…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:47 am
I think two congressional seats and the senate seat and the mansion are all quite posibile.
As for the house…
That’s going to take some chips falling in the right direction. But depending on how much the local schools complain about money and some other stuff.
Picking up the house would be a surprise, but I would be willing to put $10 with some odds.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:48 am
I have not discussed this matter with the Speaker, but my guess is that he would disagree with Brady’s predictions.
Comment by One of the 35 Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:56 am
I agree that the Senate seat is the best chance.
Isn’t this Friday when we learn if The Bank will make it. How that comes out will probably have a significant impact. I wish it were the governor’s office that was most likely to change hands. The prospect of four or eight years of flip-flopping, growing state bureaucracy, and tax increases is beyond depressing.
Has any media outlet ranked this fall’s Illinois house and senate races in terms of likelihood of changing parties. I see these prediction lists all the time at the national level. Without that information it’s hard to tell if Brady is living in fantasyland with his assertions although I suspect he is.
Comment by cassandra Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:57 am
When Madigan gets too protective of his members, they can become vulnerable because they look ineffective; in addition, recent gains have been made in districts Madigan had drawn to be Republican. The House is probably very close to the max number of Dems possible for the current map; I would expect a few losses. But, since the Republicans will have to spend a lot of resources getting back seats they lost in 2008, it’s hard to see how they could also go after stronger Dem seats in any way that would be effective.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:03 pm
People are disaffected by both sides. It is not as one side has a monopoly on public trust. So to believe that Republicans will take over the House is a bit out there. The other two races if Democrats continue to shot themselves in their foots then their races will continue to become competitive.
Comment by Lazy Intern Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:05 pm
I think the prediction about the House is a little much. I do agree that the GOP is in the drivers seat for the US Senate seat and, by default, the governor’s race.
However, it’s hard to say what will happen in the state houses until we know the impact of the Blago trial, the budget crisis, and the income tax hike. If any/all of those get messy, it could be a HUGE GOP year. Who knows?
Comment by Logical Thinker Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:07 pm
I think the GOP takes the governor’s mansion (and LG), as well as treasurer and comptroller. I think Kirk wins, and they pick up 2-3 congressional seats (I know see Bobby Schilling as a serious threat to Phil Hare’s seat). As for the house, things will have to get worse, in my opinion, for the GOP to pull that off. Although, Jay Hoffmann appears to be in trouble down here in the metro east, that would be significant. The Blago trial can’t be exciting Hoffmann too much…as his name will probably surface numerous times.
Comment by Steve-O Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:08 pm
the electorate is as anti-incumbent now as it was in 1994, but I imagine the Madigan-Cullerton gerrymandering is better now than it was then, so the repubs won’t pick up as many seats.
Comment by Robert Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:08 pm
In this political climate I’m the first to admit it’s possible.
But no one can really predict what the weather will be like in November.
The other big handicap for the GOP is Cash. Cross doesn’t have any.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:11 pm
===Jay Hoffmann appears to be in trouble down here in the metro east===
Doubtful. Look about 30 miles north for real trouble.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:13 pm
I would say at this stage it is possible, but not probable.
Brady is by no means a moderate GOP’er who the mod independents and cons dems will rally around.
Kirk is not winning because in IL ems are on the out, Kirk is winning because giannouils has some image issues which he needs to make up ground on.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:15 pm
I’m going to break with my tradition and answer part of the question. Yes, it’s possible. Entirely possible, even if Cross is outspent. MJM had tons of cash in 1994 and still lost. I’ll save my reasoning for subscribers, however.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:16 pm
30 miles north? Are you talking about DeMuzio’s senate seat?
Comment by Steve-O Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:16 pm
Steve-O, we’re talking about House seats here. So, you’re half right.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Brady may have 75% right (Sen,Gov,& 2 USC)but there is one big difference between 1994 and 2010—1994 was a GOP Map. However, if the economic takes a double dip down, all bets are off. Madigan could lose the house as well.
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:23 pm
Ah…Hannig’s old seat. Sorry, it was a long weekend. I still think Hoffmann will have his hands full with Dwight Kay in his race. It was 56-44 in 2008, and in this cycle, along with the Blago trial, I think that seat is in play.
Comment by Steve-O Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:24 pm
I can’t imagine Brady keeping his current poll numbers. I’m still of the opinion that most people who support Brady now have little knowledge of his stance on the issues. Once they see how extremist-level right he is on a number of issues (abortions, discrimination, equal pay) and realize Brady’s 10% budget cut is impossible, it seems likely Quinn will take command of the race.
As others have already stated, Pat Brady also isn’t a good barometer of party success.
Comment by jonbtuba Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:25 pm
And in 1996, Madigan won the House back under a GOP map. Madigan will hold the House under a Democratic map. Period.
Comment by David Ormsby Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:29 pm
Optimistic, but doable if the voter discontent can be captured.
Just a few more tax increases and he will be right.
Comment by Plutocrat03 Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:36 pm
At this point, I don’t see the GOP picking up the IL House, but with Blago’s pending trial, further budget woes, it could happen. My prediction is the GOP gains 6-7 seats.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Hey folks, some of you have a short memory - Rod Blagojevich has a trial going on up to the General Election. He is going to be big news, and will love saying whatever he has to in order to stay in the news.
Illinois never had a Blagojevich-cleansing election yet. 2002 and 2004 were the Ryan-cleansing years. So those tied to Blagojevich will have him on TV reminding voters why they should feel like lumbering do-do birds, and political opponents reminding voters that their incumbants supported Blagojevich too.
wordslinger is right - we have no where to go but down. We have peaked, and that peak was well above what it should have been. We have Blagojevich and friends on TV. We have a remarkable anti-incumbant mood festering nationally. We have a bad economy. Bill Brady leads by double digits in more than one poll!
Hear those canaries? Neither do I because they are ALL dead!
We have many real reason to expect the worse, and should be working as hard as we can to garner the support of disenfranchised independants and despondant Democrats to avoid a complete and utter destruction in November.
The Democrats own this. Expect to have a lot of it to be repossessed in January by November’s voters.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:43 pm
The Madigan campaign staff that won back the house in 1996 for the democrats is not the same staff that will loose the house in 2010. Everything ends one day—this includes the house of Madigan. And with goofy pat at the helm of state government whose to say that all the dems might not be in deep trouble.
Comment by Tegan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:45 pm
===not the same staff that will loose the house in 2010===
Almost all those 1994 people are still around and will be brought back into the fold. Bet on it. Also, it’s “lose,” not “loose.” Pet peeve of mine.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:46 pm
One reason MJM doesn’t lose the House as he did in 1994. No straight party voting.
Comment by Ozzie Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:49 pm
Well it’s hard to say right now whether or not it’s realistic. This could be a great year for Republicans in this state and around the nation, but I don’t know if Madigan or even Cullerton will be knocked off of their perches in November.
Comment by Levois Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:54 pm
…Adding… The HGOPs would need to pick up at least 12 seats to win a majority. They picked up 13 in 1994.
I still remember it like it was yesterday…..
Comment by Tom Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:54 pm
I doubt that either the House or Senate will become GOP domain next year, but I do expect Dem margins to drop.
The biggest problem is that Cross and Radogno consider every district that hasn’t gone at least 55% GOP since 2002 as a “non-competitive” district.
I know how some really good people were strongly discouraged from running against certain Dems, even in districts that went for George Bush in 2004.
Besides being part of the “you protect one of mine and I’ll protect one of yours” cooperation you see between majority and minority leaders, I think Cross and Radogno are seriously concerned with getting independent Republicans involved with the party, and would rather work with a Madigan than a Adam A.
The fact that Cross is a MAJOR obstacle in letting Republican rank and file elect their Central Committee as the Dems do (SB600) is convincing evidence of this.
With current leadership in the GOP, I strongly doubt that there will be any serious party effort to take over the GA. The leaders are too happy with the patronage crumbs Madigan throws their way.
Comment by PalosParkBob Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 12:57 pm
The GOP wins all state-wide races except AG and SoS. Turn out is going to be an issue and the likely DEM voter is not going to be motivated. Yes, Jay Hoffman is in trouble, serious trouble. This will be an election cycle where the DEMs are going to lose some races they should’nt lose. Some big names will fall.
Comment by Cousin Ralph Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:01 pm
The IL House races are the unwritten story this cycle. Republicans will make huge gains, and possibly take the majority. First, recruiting went well for Republicans. Second, they are raising more money than last cycle. Third, the state is on the financial brink. Everything is a mess. Nothing has been managed well in the past 8 years. Anger in response to that sorry state of affairs is long overdue and about to be felt. Exactly what part of their record can dem state house candidates brag about?
Watch, wait and learn.
Comment by Montecore Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:03 pm
I think the biggest question that will be answered as the summer progresses is whether 1) Is this a “republican” year, like 1994? 2) Is the voter discontent going to result in a “throw the bums out” irrespective of party affiliation to the levels we haven’t seen before or 3) Will voter apathy and low voter turnout impact whether Pat Brady’s comments are possible?
I heard about a poll that was conducted recently where approval rating of congress was at an all-time low and that when polled, likely voters were unhappy with their own congressman, to the tune of 39% or something like that. Rich, did I read that here?
Comment by Knome Sane Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:17 pm
I don’t see it happening. State House Dems will lose a few seats but not the majority. Same with the Senate. The map is just too tough.
Comment by No Way Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:20 pm
In 1994, Dawn Clark Netsch and a proposed 42% tax increase contributed to the Dems demise…
Can Blago, Quinn, the pending tax increase, anti-incumbent national mood, horrible economy, etc. combine to produce similar results — absolutely.
Comment by curtis Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:30 pm
It is possible. Quinn has no answers. If the democrats pass a 6 month budget and go into the election it is suicide. Voter turn out will be low and anti incumbent. Bad for democrats. You can attack Brady with a bad plan all you want, but if the democrats go into an election saying that after 8 years of absolute control, we don’t have any idea where to start to fix this problem it could be worse than Brady predicted.
The X factor is that I have not seen Mike Madigan has any desire to pull out Victory in November. I think he is ok taking a hit with the hope he can turn it around in 4 years.
Comment by the Patriot Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:34 pm
===If the democrats pass a 6 month budget and go into the election it is suicide.===
Actually, solving the problem would truly be suicidal.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:35 pm
The embarrassment of GOP riches across the country is actually going to work against the Illinois GOP. The RNC was committed to a huge expenditure here for November, but with close Senate races cropping up across the country, including very expensive California, the money will not be as large here.
But the fulminating anger among the populace is palpable. By their own greed and folly, the Democrats have finally awoken the heretofore anesthetized voters of Illinois, and they ain’t happy.
The fiscal forturnes of this State are going to get worse, not better by November. Illinois is on the brink of a California-style crisis, and moving towards the cliff edge. Add in the Blago trial. Add in unemployment staying high.
Brady is simply being prescient.
Comment by Bubs Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:42 pm
I don’t think they’ll lose the majority but they will lose some seats. Losing will serve them right. They’ve abandoned their core constituencies. Let’s see if their new found friends from the commercial club and the Tribune will help them as much as we used to.
Comment by Bill Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:45 pm
People are outgaged. But will they vote? L
Comment by Down South Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:47 pm
== People are outgaged. But will they vote? ==
Yes I think they will
Comment by OneMan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:49 pm
Rich Miller @ 1:30 P.M. - Your comment speaks volumes about the state of our state. Politics first, the people be darned…
Cross won’t take back the majority but he will probably pick up 6 seats. Hoffman’s not going anywhere as long as he keeps hovering around $1 million bucks in his campaign fund and as long as Tom Cross and Jay Hoffman are still friends from WAY back.
Comment by So. Ill Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:50 pm
You don’t think this is all a Madigan strategem to lose control just this one cycle, “help” the Republicans make all the hard decisions to balance the budget, and then recapture control of the legislature and governor’s offices after the inevitable backlash? Or maybe he just wants us to think that’s what he’s up to . . . or he wants us to think that he wants us to think he’s up to . . . Now I’m confused.
Comment by Pat Robertson Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:52 pm
It’s one thing to pass a bill that’s opposed by about half the people depending upon the wording (healthcare), it’s quite another to pass a law opposed by almost 80 percent of the people (state income tax hike).
Also, there is really no advantage for the HGOPs to go after Hoffman. MJM won’t spend a dime to help him and, as you point out, Hoffman and Cross are friends.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 1:53 pm
“Almost all those 1994 people are still around and will be brought back into the fold.” - Rich
I think you meant to say 96. It will be hard for some of that ‘96 staff to be brought back into the fold if they never really left. Comments say what they want about staff changes, but I think the Speaker has wisely kept many of his key strategists “in the family” if not on his payroll.
Comment by siriusly Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 2:01 pm
Trueness. But, for the most part, the same staffers who were around for 94 were also around for 96. It’s not like they had anyplace else to go.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 2:03 pm
not sure what else anyone would expect him to say. while it might be refreshing to hear a pol say, “the race is tight, but it doesn’t look good for us,” the base would rebel. he needs these people pumped and active. so i think he’s doing his job, regardless of the outcome. good for him…
Comment by bored now Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 2:38 pm
===Actually, solving the problem would truly be suicidal===
I agree and disagree Rich. The dems have really caused this problem. Yea Ryan made some bad decisions, but after 8 years they own it. If they went in with one plan to raise taxes and cut to the bone, it is suicide. But tell the voters we have no idea how to fix this is a horrible idea. They need to write out a long term solution and try to sell it. Don’t go nuclear with cuts to the bone, or tax hikes. Do some cutting and draw a plan for scale backs in the future.
I lost a basketball game 77-27 once, and even though we were down 45 in the 4th quarter, giving up was not acceptable.
I can agree to disagree with a politician on about any point, but if you are going to tell me it is s bad, we’re just not gonna try, I don’t need you. This is a bi-partisan problem by the way. Many republicans have given up and I think they need to go as well.
Comment by the Patriot Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 2:39 pm
I don’t see the GOP taking things over.
Whatever they were drinking/smoking, I’ll give it a try.
Comment by titan Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 3:47 pm
“the Patriot” @ 1:34 pm has a very interesting take on the subject. If the GOP has to come to the table - whether it’s by taking control of the House or a Brady win - they would then have to wear the jacket along with the Dems.
It seems to me that, whoever wins the Governor’s race, the path is clear for Lisa Madigan in 2014.
* If Quinn wins, the Dems bite the bullet and pass a tax increase in January to stave off insolvency; memories are short enough among Dems not to damage Lisa in 2014.
* If Brady wins, he’ll have to break his no-tax pledge quickly, also to stave off insolvency; a 10% cut plan won’t solve a 40% budget deficit. Elephants have long memories, so Brady would be a certain one-termer.
Comment by cover Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 3:48 pm
Someone correct me
I believe the last GOP at Kankakee CC was the Ryan Brothers GrabFest in the good old days.
They must have been chewing on that Triple K Locoweed before Gags Brady lost control of his faculties.
I’ll start thinking that Brady has a chance as soon as he announces he is going to rest with his FL condo buddies for about six months.
I think CommandoKirk sending back the GOldman gifts puts a crimp on whining about Lexi’s banking issues.
Ain’t that a shame
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 5:29 pm
Its a deeper hole when the House Dems pick up the Coulson seat. Biss ran before and probably needs to be considered the favorite.
Comment by 4 percent Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 5:55 pm
I’m not that good at prognosticating, but all my instincts tell me its going to be a much better R year nationally than it will be in Illinois. I think we get the US Senate seat, we’re in the hunt for Gov, we pick up Comptroller, and maybe Treasurer. We get a couple or three seats in the House one or two in the Senate, maybe a Congressional seat.
But, if we don’t get Gov, then the Ds still have total control of what counts. The latest polls I saw showed Quinn barely over 50% among blacks. He will get 85+. The Gov is still way uphill for us.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 6:29 pm
Steve…Quinn’s campaign is the walking dead…A 6 month, kick the can down the road budget is the death kneel for his campaign…but at this time, it’s the only alternative….There was a narrow window of opportunity about 8 weeks last Spring after Quinn became Governor when a tax increase could have passed. Unfortunately, Quinn was behind the curve and failed to drive the agenda. I don’t see the economy improving enough to bail democrats out…it’s lights out for Illinois democrats next November.
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 7:10 pm
The Democrats could lose the majority if the minorities stay home and the republican base turns out. Independents will lean republican this year so it is a distinct possibility there could be another nationwide republican landslide like 94 which swept out the democratic house majority. Staff is over rated. Madigan has turned over staff numerous times over the years and still thrives. Most are still around in some capacity and work for MJM to protect their current gigs. The elimination of straight party voting by the repubs in 95 is good for the Dems this year. It was also a big reason why Madigan was able to win back the house in 96 in districts drawn by the republicans. Straight party Repulican votes caused by the nationwide Republican “Contract with America” swept out safe Dem house seats like Stezco in 94. Can it happen again? People are angrier and hurting a lot more economically this year than they were in 94. Conversely, the state is a lot bluer now than it was in 94. Either way the Dems will lose a significant number of seats. Blago is on trial and will cause Dems up for reelection headaches. Alexi is a problem for the Dems and MJM is also a major issue. Just ask Macelaio. It will be hard for the house Dems to counteract all the anti-incumbent sentiment due to the overall anger of the voters and the throw out the bums mentality of the electorate. Republicans could possibly sweep everything but Ag and SOS if all the stars line up correctly.
Comment by Old Timer Dem Monday, Apr 19, 10 @ 11:01 pm
Also, it’s “lose,” not “loose.” Pet peeve of mine.
From the bottom of my heart, thank you.
Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 3:52 am
Never before have the public school children been hung out to dry like they have by this group of politicians. I wouldn’t be surprised by massive turnovers in house seats.
Comment by leigh Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 6:39 am
IL17 is D+3, but Bobby Schilling is looking more viable every day.
I’m predicting Boland will lose his seat in the ILHGOP (71st) to Rich Morthland
Comment by ifg Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 9:52 am
ifg, I don’t see any candidate by the name of Schilling. The 17th House race has no such person, and neither does the 17th Senate.
Also, Boland gave up his seat.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 9:59 am
Schilling has a great chance to pick up a congressional seat in Illinois. I know some folks who are upset with the same old politics as usual in the district, and they really want change. Schilling will undoubtedly deliver a major upset come November.
Comment by wes34 Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 11:00 am
Rich,
The IL 17th Congressional seat — see Steve O’s comment.
Up here in the 71st, we are used to calling it Boland’s seat. A bad habit. It’s the Ahern vs Morthland race that should be high on your watch list.
Comment by ifg Tuesday, Apr 20, 10 @ 11:08 am