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* Famed political prognosticator Charlie Cook just upgraded Mark Kirk’s chances of winning the US Senate seat. Cook had the US Senate race as a “toss-up” but he moved it a notch to “lean Republican” in the wake of Broadway Bank’s demise…
Broadway’s failure will have an enormous impact on Giannoulias’ campaign, and it is entirely possible that the fallout could force him from the race. As such, the race is moving from the Toss Up to the Lean Republican column.
Chris Cillizza looks behind the subscription firewall…
“Some Democratic strategists believe that Giannoulias can weather this crisis and remain a competitive general election candidate,” [Cook] wrote. “We are not so sure.”
At issue is whether Giannoulias’ decision to take the failure of Broadway Bank head on — with an ad seeking to explain what happened and why — is the right one. […]
Cook writes that Democrats are likely to give Giannoulias’ strategy a chance to work but that if his fundraising or polling numbers (or both) erode that the search for a replacement candidate is likely to start in earnest.
Frankly, I’ve personally had this race in the “lean Republican” column since Lisa Madigan bowed out and Kirk jumped in. As I’ve written before, Kirk is a nearly perfect Republican statewide candidate. Historically, the GOP must win suburban Republican wome to defeat the Democrats statewide. Kirk’s pro-choice, anti-gun positions are right in line with theirs. And we’ve known about Giannoulias’ bank troubles for over four years, when Speaker Madigan started using them against Giannoulias in the 2006 Democratic primary.
Also, the ad buy mentioned by Cook is, apparently, mostly for show. According to three different buyers, Giannoulias spent just $2,500 on Springfield cable and $20,000 on ABC7 in Chicago, during the early morning news, noon news and the 1 am news.
* Cillizza goes on to observe…
It’s worth noting that Republicans have been close to silent about Giannoulias since the bank’s failure, an approach similar to the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s non aggression policy toward embattled Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) last year. Like Dodd, Republicans seem to believe that keeping Giannoulias in the race represents their best chance at winning the seat being vacated by appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D) this fall.
Um, well, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. This Kirk campaign press release just found its way into my in-box…
The Alexi Giannoulias Spin Cycle
From loans to criminals to the collapse of his bank, Alexi has a history of spinning inconvenient truths
Alexi Giannoulias is employing a serious spin cycle as he attempts to elicit sympathy for his reckless decisions that brought down his family bank and cost the FDIC $394 million. As it has often been the case throughout his career, Mr. Giannoulias resorts to pointing fingers when he finds himself in an inconvenient situation.
And this story sure looks like Kirk-generated OR to me…
Two political contributors to Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois, appear in the government’s evidentiary documents against former Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich filed earlier this month.
* Whatever the case, Giannoulias ain’t getting out of this race, the political hooplah surrounding Wednesday’s presidential visit to Quincy notwithstanding. All the huffing and puffing turns out to have been much ado about not a whole lot. Not to single him out or anything, but Eric Zorn was among many who read the tea leaves and proclaimed that Obama’s failure to invite Giannoulias to stand by his side was yet another sign that the White House wanted him gone…
How much more clear does President Obama have to make it that he’d be thrilled if Giannoulias did a Jack Ryan and withdrew in order to give the party a mulligan in this key race?
Well, the latest news is that Giannoulias has been invited to attend tomorrow’s festivities at the same time that every other state officeholder was invited. It’s not a campaign event, so the White House sent invites Monday to all statewide officials and people like Senate President John Cullerton, who isn’t going because it’s a session day. The only real “scandal” here is that the White House waited until two days before the event to send out invitations to his home-state VIPs.
Everybody really needs to take a breath. Just look at the way The Hill is preparing to parse every one of the Preznit’s words…
What Obama says about his fellow Democrat during his remarks [in Quincy] could signal the level of support the White House is planning to provide Giannoulias’ campaign.
Sheesh. Again, this is a government trip, paid for by the taxpayers. If Obama does say something about the election, he’ll be violating the law.
As I’ve written before, people were telling Giannoulias to get off the ticket four years ago when he ran for treasurer against Speaker Madigan’s choice. He kept moving ahead. After he won that primary, pundits made a huge deal out of the fact that Madigan didn’t seem to want to have anything to do with Giannoulias, and suggestions were made that he’d be better off exiting. He kept moving forward. Last year, all were in a tizzy when the White House brought in a large handful of possible US Senate candidates, including Lisa Madigan, for public wooings. Giannoulias stuck with the plan. Since he won the primary, it’s been an almost non-stop cry for Giannoulias to go.
But he ain’t going anywhere, despite the rumor first spread by Rod Blagojevich that Giannoulias would be moved aside and somebody like Rahm Emanuel would replace him. Pure, utter fantasy. The trouble is, some people want it to be true so much that they can see “evidence” everywhere.
Again, I’m not trying to pick on Zorn, because this “I want it to be true so it will be true because I will help make it so” bias is so prevalent.
Y’all can keep shouting if you want, but I cannot foresee a probable circumstance where he steps aside.
* Zorn adds…
Politico’s Ben Smith writes of Friday’s failure of Giannoulias’ family bank that it’s “hard to remember a worse thing happening to a Senate candidate during a campaign”
Really? I like Ben a lot, but he must not know Illinois too well. Let’s see, Blair Hull, Jack Ryan and Alan Keyes - and that was just in 2004.
About the worst thing I know that happened to an Illinois US Senate candidate was when Frank L. Smith ran in 1926. The Senate held special hearings during the summer after word got out that Smith’s campaign was being financed in whole by what is now ComEd and other utilities. Smith was chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission at the time. Oops. Now that’s bad. Smith won anyway, but the Senate refused to seat him when Gov. Len Small tried to appoint him that December (the incumbent died after the election). The Senate refused to seat him again when Smith showed up to claim his seat in March of 1927. He resigned a year later and Gov. Small was so upset that he refused to appoint a replacement, leaving Illinois with only one US Senator until after the next election.
* The Tribune editorial board once again goes after Giannoulias today…
Alexi Giannoulias has a big problem. Last week, federal regulators closed his family’s money-losing Broadway Bank, where he acquired the financial expertise he touted in running for state treasurer in 2006. So where does he place the blame? On Mark Kirk, his opponent in the race for the U.S. Senate.
Kirk, you see, is a Republican, and it was under a Republican president, George W. Bush, that the economy went bad, making many of Broadway’s loans worthless. In a new ad, the Giannoulias campaign faults Kirk for supporting Bush policies that “got us into this mess.”
Giannoulias’ claim smacks of desperation. Anyone truly looking for culprits would start with the people who ran Broadway. Most banks have been able to weather the recession. This one failed mostly because of its own mistakes.
Did Broadway make mistakes? Heck yes they did. Did those mistakes become fatal when the national economy tanked? Heck yes they did. But where have I heard this before? Oh, yeah. Now I remember. The exact same thing happened to Tribune Co. They way overleveraged, then the economy tanked, newstand sales dropped like a rock and advertising revenues dried up and then they found themselves in bankruptcy court. Oops.
There’s plenty of blame to go around, and Giannoulias has already taken the blame for his share at the bank. Giannoulias doesn’t take any blame at all in his new ad, however, and that’s the real issue here. On that point, I wholly agree with the Tribune.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 10:48 am
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Uh - there isn’t anyone running for the US Senate claiming their experience in running the Tribune gave them the wisdom and experience for public office, though. If there was, I wouldn’t vote for them either.
Kirk is the right candidate, and Giannoulais is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. Even without the Broadway Bank, this is no year for a trust-funded multimillionaire’s son to try and present himself as understanding family financial issues. The guy has no family. He has no problem paying his bills. He hasn’t ever had to work a day in his entire life. That is just the wrong kind of candidate during the Great Recession.
…and Blagojevich’s trial hasn’t yet really started…
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:04 am
One man’s jabs are another man’s roundhouse punches. Loans to mafioso: straight left to the jaw; taking millions out of a failing bank: a solid body shot; the expertise exhibited in the Bright Star program: an uppercut; the bank fails costing taxpayers everywhere hundreds of millions of dollars: a left right combination and he’s down. Stay down Alexi, you’re a dead man walking. Continuing in the race: a Republican’s dream.
Comment by walter sobchak Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:11 am
If the Democrats had already removed on nominee from the ballot. Well he actually gave up his spot. Would attempting to convince Ginnoulias of the same be disastrous for the Democrats. Just as forcing Jack Ryan out was disastrous for the Republicans 6 years ago.
Comment by Levois Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:11 am
Kirk’s e-mail jabs should not be confused with a knockout punch. Kirk won’t start throwing those until October. Sure, Kirk will continue to beat Alexi senseless with issues from now until November, but they will try to walk the fine line between that and pushing him out of the race. Kirk’s greatest asset in this race (given the political nature of this state) is not his ability to reach out to indys and some Dems, but rather is a weakened, bruised, tottering Alexi, who makes it to the final round but then gets KO’d.
Comment by Team America Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:13 am
Rich, nice reminder of Frank L. Smith and William McKinley; now that was a scandal!
Comment by Adolfo Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:14 am
I really like Alexi personally, but he will lose to Kirk though not by much…his ambition outweighs his electability after the finanicial debacles he must be held accountable for, especially when he was State Treasurer…he’s damaged goods, and Obama knows it…he doesn’t need any more trouble in his rear view mirror before 2010 elections…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:14 am
Rock meets hard place…
Alexi’s first quarter $$ numbers and poll numbers took a big dive. There is no reason at all to think they are in the midst of a rebound, especailly with Cook’s rating change.
Even though it isn’t even May, it would be a huge undertaking to replace Alexi. There would be many potential candidates and the process could get ugly, not to mention the lack of any obvious self-funders who could catch up to Kirk with one check.
While Alexi has little choice but to rag on Kirk, what does he expect? It’s April. Should Kirk go into September campaign mode just because Alexi is sinking in quicksand? Kirk is reacting to and exploiting events that he did not dictate. This situation is all Alexi’s making.
The blame Bush tactic isn’t going to work either. In fact, it may exacerbate the situation with independents. But desperate times call for desperate measures.
Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:16 am
George Bush’s policies killed Alexi’s basketball career too.
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:17 am
Rich,
First, you’re wrong about the Kirk campaign. They have been remarkably muted in their response and for good reason. I know for a fact (yes as in spoken to top Kirk people) that they are desperate to keep him in the race as it is their best chance to win.
Second, you’re buying into the spin that this was just another community bank that fell victim to a bad economy. As the Trib points out, between the brokered deposits and the leveraged shift in lending practices when Alexi was there (and really when they took over from their dad), they ceased to be a community bank and instead became a greedy, badly run institution.
As the trib concluded, quoting consultant Bert Ely, “Broadway’s losses are far bigger than most other failed banks, amounting to a third of its assets. “The real question is why it wasn’t closed a long time ago,” says Washington, D.C.-area banking consultant Bert Ely. “It was a badly run bank.”
His money is drying up. The DSCC has abandoned him (their latest internals show him down by 8 before the collapse). Major Dems are freaking out. The only people who think he has a shot are he, his fiance and his paid consultants.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:18 am
===you’re buying into the spin that this was just another community bank that fell victim to a bad economy.===
Where, exactly, do you see that?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:20 am
He’s already taken the hits — why would he get out now? He’s not going to get any cabinet position. You’re down in the second quarter — you just keep popping your shots, hope they fall and you get some turnovers.
Zorn is now channelling Obama’s thoughts through his scheduling. Give it a rest, dude. Another state party selection on the ticket at this point would be a disaster. People hate that insider stuff.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:21 am
I dunno….I’m so brainwashed into hating rich, ‘fat cat’ bankers…
Comment by This Little Piggie Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:22 am
The issue isn’t so much the bank’s failure, but the fact that the family took so much cash out of it even after the bank started losing money.
Comment by Pelon Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:24 am
Didnt Carol Mosley-Braun end up with some bad press related to her fundraising which resulted in her losing her seat as well?
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:29 am
This post pretty sums up why you drive the conversation in the Illinois political world. I give you props.
Ben Smith is a new york journalist who lives on the upper east side. He doesn’t know hyde park from libertyville. Politico has also been predicting the demise of mark kirk since 2007 when they started gushing all over Jay footlik so remember to take that with a grain of (mortons) salt.
Alexi can say what he wants, but in terms of politics mark kirk makes radogno look like 5th grade student council candidate. It’s night and day and as I have said, Alexi is up a creek without a paddle, because kirk has done well in the most liberal of the suburban districts and so the rest of the collar counties are going to be easy pickings for him. It’s worth noting alexi got stomped by hoffman on the north shore in february even though alexi had 5 years to build a rep 62-29.
You’re missing the point with the tribune. They are attacking his character and qualifications of which there are none now that this bank failed. On wttw last night kris kreidel, a non partisan, non political reporter from wbbm who covers business for the radio station, noted some of the broadway branches will close costing illinoisans their jobs.
That will be next week’s press release.
She also debunked the myth that alexi’s bank was all about loans to the “little guy”.
Here is the clip for those of you that don’t have the pleasure of living in the area.
http://www.wttw.com/main.taf?p=42,8,80
Comment by shore Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:32 am
===
Did Broadway make mistakes? Heck yes they did. Did those mistakes become fatal when the national economy tanked? Heck yes they did. But where have I heard this before? Oh, yeah. Now I remember. The exact same thing happened to Tribune Co. They way overleveraged, then the economy tanked, newstand sales dropped like a rock and advertising revenues dried up and then they found themselves in bankruptcy court. Oops.
===
Just because somebody is a hypocrite, it doesn’t make them wrong.
That’d be like a chain-smoking doctor saying that smoking is bad for our health, and then us saying it must be untrue because he’s smoking.
Comment by ABCBoy Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:33 am
===Just because somebody is a hypocrite, it doesn’t make them wrong.===
It only makes them wrong if they don’t point out the full story, which is that bad decision were turned into fatal decisions when the economy tanked. And what’s the harm in pointing out their hypocrisy, since they do it all the time to others?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:37 am
I don’t think the bank closing by itself if the issue. It’s the bad loans to mob figures that make for much better attack ads, that and the costs to taxpayers for the failure.
Comment by Downstate Illinois Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:38 am
“costs to taxpayers”
There is no “direct” cost to the taxpayers as the FDIC insurance fund is funded by the banks themselves. That fee has increased astromomically in the recent years. However, there is cost to taxpayers as banks will pass along the costs one way or another as do all businesses.
Comment by wizard Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 11:45 am
astronomically
Comment by wizard Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:01 pm
===
It only makes them wrong if they don’t point out the full story, which is that bad decision were turned into fatal decisions when the economy tanked. And what’s the harm in pointing out their hypocrisy, since they do it all the time to others?
===
1) The Tribune might argue that it was entities such as Broadway that were the catalyst for the economy tanking in the first place. Thus, their original bad decision helped bring about the overall conditions that made the bad decision into a fatal one.
2) You can point out how they do it too all you want. It’s just that it doesn’t make them necessarily wrong in fact.
**
Saying a hypocrite must therefore be wrong on the substance may work in terms of spin, but it’s a logically flawed argument no matter who makes it. At most, a person can be undermined as a hypocrite because it might be evidence that they are insincere, or that they are imperfect advocates because of their inconsistent behavior. But it doesn’t automatically destroy the underlying position.
That’s why I hate it when people gloat when “family values” politicans fail personally and then try to suggest that therefore “family values” positions are wrong. Or when conservatives point to Al Gore’s massive carbon footprint to somehow prove that climate change doesn’t exist.
Anyway, pet peeve of mine and tons of people on all sides are guilty of it.
Comment by ABCBoy Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:01 pm
===entities such as Broadway that were the catalyst for the economy tanking in the first place===
Please.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:09 pm
An enterprising reporter may ask Alexi what he thinks about the Dodd bill as it relates to small, community banks such as the former Broadway Bank.
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:16 pm
I think you hit it on the head,
Nothing is his fault.
The bank failing isn’t his fault.
The problem with the bond investing in Bright Start isn’t his fault.
The loans to ‘interesting characters’ not his fault.
The Holography museum loans, not his fault.
Like someone pointed out, I expect him to blame Mark Kirk for his basketball career ending.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Sounds pretty good to me
Comment by Sent from my iPhone Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:31 pm
===I think you hit it on the head. Nothing is his fault.===
Dude, that’s the goofiest thing you’ve ever posted here by far.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:36 pm
Well I may get goofier…
I mean he says nothing is his fault, not that stuff isn’t his fault.
At the end of the day if he looked at the camera and kept the first half of the commercial and in the second half said
“We tried, we made mistakes, sometimes that is what happens in business and you have to learn from it an go forward”
He is setting up a pattern that is going to be used against him…
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 12:57 pm
“Dude, that’s the goofiest thing you’ve ever posted here by far”
When you have a 33 year old candidate, who has held one state office and won that because 1) his “experience” as a banker and 2) because of his connections to Obama, there isn’t a whole lot to draw from.
Yet, when it comes to his record and the problems linked to his supposed “accomplishments,” I don’t see Alexi taking responsibility for ANYTHING.
I’d like to see someone in the media as a question or two of the Oppenheimer bond manager that caused the losses in the Bright Start program, specifically, I’d like to see if there was any personal connection between him and Alexi. The guy’s name? Angelo Manioudakis.
It’s at least worth asking the question, no?
Comment by Logical Thinker Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 1:01 pm
THE TRIBUNE WEB SITE BLOCKED THIS COMMENT SENT BY A FRIEND….
Actually CommandoKirk and the other Bush front men should get most of the blame. They let Wall Street and the predatory lenders, bond raters run wild and destroy the lives of millions. The Goldman story tells everything you need to know. The Trib, of course, beholden to real estate ads etc. and running on the fumes of a bloated junk bond deal only stood in the way of any modest effort reforms or oversight before the total collapse.
Almost every bank in the nation was badly run — it reminds us of the Trib S&L which was hidden as an employee credit union. Some got the Bush bailout, some were bought out, some stopped lending to good credits and otehr went the way of Broadway.
That’s the story. Sad but true Kirk’s silence did the real damage
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 1:07 pm
Alexi doesn’t work for Broadway. Demetris runs the bank. However, Demetris is chairman of a new bank in the Bronx. How is Demetris going to raise capital for a struggling bank in Chicago if he’s presiding over the growth of a new bank in the Bronx?
The Other Giannoulias Bank - Chicago Tribune - Becky Yerak - April 4, 2010
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 1:18 pm
CircularFiringSquad: Remind me, but didn’t the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board endorse the top recipient of Goldman Sachs donations in 2008?
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 1:33 pm
The blame for the current mess goes back to the savings and loan crash and the failure of either party to better regualte the entire financial industry. We had warning signs of what an unregualted speculator driven cash frenzy does with financial insitutions, we just decided to let them continue to do it.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:10 pm
=The blame for the current mess goes back to the savings and loan crash and the failure of either party to better regualte the entire financial industry. We had warning signs of what an unregualted speculator driven cash frenzy does with financial insitutions, we just decided to let them continue to do it. =
What’s interesting is that Broadway Bank failed for largely the same reasons most S&Ls did - a heavy focus on risky real estate development lending coupled with dependence upon volatile and expensive brokered deposits for funding.
Comment by well Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:13 pm
CircularFiringSquad: Please don’t complain about Tea Partiers anymore. Go immediately to the hospital and tell the emergency attendants that you have swallowed a partisan load of bull; hook, line and stinker.
We all know you hate Kirk. We’re getting over it.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:16 pm
“better regulate”?
If you’ve watched any of today’s hearing on Goldman Sachs it’s pretty obvious that the Senators really don’t understand investment banking. What the Senators really know how to do is genuflect before the Banksters and pray they know what they’re doing in handing out bank holding status to Goldman Sachs.
Perhaps Tim “I’ve never held a real job” Geithner knows how to regulate.
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:17 pm
And Ghost, this one is for you -
Houchlat iuoch rolp eomemoy zunik.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:19 pm
CFS-It appears your tinfoil hat is still receiving signals loud and clear. I have evidence that Kirk is a member of the Trilateral Commission too. I think the Larouchies are looking for a candidate for Governor. Give them a call.
Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 2:41 pm
Alexi is done. I dont get enjoyment out of other people’s losses. But he is done. Is Obama going to beat up on Wall Street from now until election night, but turn around and campaign for his old buddy Alexi? Is Lisa Madigan going to share a podium with him and tell the audiance “…and we need Alexi in the US Senate”? Are other DEM candidates, worried about their own election prospects, going to be seen on stage with Alexi? Campaign for Alexi? Want Alexi’s signs next to theirs? Nope. There is nothing he can say that will make his politcal fortunes any different than that of Broadway Bank.
Comment by Cousin Ralph Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 3:30 pm
–1) The Tribune might argue that it was entities such as Broadway that were the catalyst for the economy tanking in the first place–
LOL. They might, but that would be nuts. Broadway was no player, they were hustlers along for the ride.
There’s no secret as to what happened — the smartest guys in the room — Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, the U of Chicago crowd — thought they could manage the bubble through the Fed.
The rating agencies went along and they sliced the baloney thinner and thinner, marketed the hell out of it, and watched all the 401K money pour in.
Meanwhile, no big money people here were interested in growing production, just consumption. So we all borrowed money to buy plastic junk from Asia.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 4:49 pm
–If you’ve watched any of today’s hearing on Goldman Sachs it’s pretty obvious that the Senators really don’t understand investment banking.–
Oh yeah, these Goldman Sachs guys are straight out of Mensa. How diabolically clever. They told took investors money to go long and went short. Not hedged, short.
Historically, you don’t have to be a genius to make money that way. The math is brutally simple. The trick is to make sure at the end of the day you’re not the guest of honor at a necktie party.
It was a basic con on a grand scale. Cheap hustlers in expensive suits.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 4:59 pm
It’s called being an adult. You messed your bed, now go clean it up. Only 5 percent of “small community banks” have gone under. You engaged in very risk (and at one time profitable) strategy but now the crapper hit the fan. It’s called a diaper. You can’t blame other people for YOUR problems. You’re a rich spoiled 33 year-old who has spent his adult life playing basketball in Greece, getting coffee at your daddy’s bank, being friends with the most powerful man in the world, ruining Bright Start, etc.
I am of this generation. I apologize for Alexi not being able to man up and properly take responsibility. Accountability? Never heard that word.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 27, 10 @ 6:59 pm