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*** UPDATE *** Mark Kirk’s now up with a response ad, called “Distract.” Rate it…
[ *** End of Update *** ]
* The Alexi Giannoulias campaign has a new TV ad up which has been running since Friday. It’s called “Struggle.” Supposedly, this one is much more of a significant buy than the last one, but I’m checking the numbers. Rate it…
* The NRSC has a new [Internet-only] ad whacking Giannoulias for his ad…
Related story from Lynn Sweet…
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the chair of the Senate Democratic political operation hit Chicago on Sunday to map fund-raising strategy with top donors to assist the Alexi Giannoulias Illinois Senate campaign.
Menendez, who oversees the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, huddled with about 30 contributors–who can tap their personal networks for more donors–at a session held at the Saddle and Cycle Club on 900 W. Foster Ave., a few blocks west of Lake Michigan on the North Side.
I was told the take away from the meeting was this: there was a “positive and engaged conversation about the state of the race and the DSCC support for it.”
* Rep. Luis Arroyo (D-Chicago) asks NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde what gun control bills he could possibly support…
* Senate President John Cullerton told reporters yesterday that the General Assembly could adjourn for the summer by Thursday…
* Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno answers a question about whether she could use the negotiations on McPier to extract an agreement on the budget…
* And the House held a service for fallen members of the armed forces from Illinois yesterday. Watch…
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 9:51 am
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I really don’t think that Alexi’s Kirk = Bush thing is going to do anything for him. It didn’t work for Dan Seals in 2006 and 2008, and Bush isn’t the President any more.
Comment by Sent from my iPhone Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:09 am
Alexi is a desperate politician, he is behind in polls and behind in money. he will say or do anything to get elected.
Comment by anon Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:13 am
Also the 600 jobs at Hartmarx is not really true, but under his deal with Hartmarx, the Rock Island plant closed which cut 300 jobs.
The whole deal was eliminating a plant with 300 jobs to keep one with 600 working.
Comment by Sent from my iPhone Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:13 am
I am sure during the President’s visit to Quincy, Axelrod told Alexi that his campaign had the smell and appearance of death and to get something going. I bet Axelrod didn’t mean for alexi to spend all of his money on an ad buy in May.
Comment by anon Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:18 am
Weird play for alexi to spend a lot of dough on tv with six months to go. He must think desperate measures are appropriate.
Rich, are you going to post the We Ask America poll?
Comment by Hipster Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:22 am
===I am sure ===
And you base that on what? More Blagojevich-inspired rumors?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:22 am
Giannoulais’s ad is weak. Bush is so yesterday and isn’t in the news anymore. I’m not impressed. It seems that Giannoulais didn’t have any idea how he was going to campaign. Instead, it seems that he was just going to run as a pro-Obama friend. Perhaps that could have worked in 2008, but not this year.
C’Mon! Give us a reason to vote for you Alexi! Nothing you have given me so far offsets my gut feeling that you haven’t a clue what life is like for regular people, you know, folks that don’t have millions thanks to their father.
2010 is going to be a tough year for trust-fund kids running as Democrats.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:23 am
Is AKPD Media sitting out this Senate race?
Comment by Brennan Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:25 am
Amen SFMi. If all Giannoulias has to run on is “George Bush”, then we won’t be seeing much more of the youngster after November.
Giannoulias & Quinn at the top of the ticket. Good lick with thst.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:27 am
Brennan, AKPD lost the primary to Giannoulias, so I assume they ain’t in it. Also, Axelrod and Plouffe are no longer there. It’s really just KD media.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:27 am
Rep. Luis Arroyo (D-Chicago) asks NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde what gun control bills he could possibly support…
Duh…He’s the NRA lobbyist…..It’s his job not to support any gun legislation. I love how some just assume that gun laws will reduce gun crimes in Chicago.
I would have to see Todd inject the old Princess Bride line (modified for these discussions)
“Dude, I do not think these bills/laws mean what you think they mean”.
Comment by Moderate REpub Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:28 am
I give the Alexi ad a 2. The first part about Kirk catches a person’s ears and eyes. A year and a half ago, the message would have been effective. But maybe Alexi’s team hasn’t noticed — people don’t seem to be mad at Bush right now. They’ve moved on… now their mad at Obama, government, taxes, etc. Even the mention of a tax break right now is more positive than negative.
The rest of the ad is very quiet and really nothing at all. The message about Alexi is so fuzzy, the spot is only memorable as an anti-Kirk ad, but not as an Alexi ad. That would be fine if he wanted to drop out of the race, but otherwise, he needs to start building a sharper, positive image of himself.
Comment by KeepSmiling Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:28 am
Rep. Luis Arroyo (D-Chicago) asks NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde what gun control bills he could possibly support
When it is time to talk, all questions are suitable. Just as it is appropriate to ask an NRA lobbyist what gun control laws he supports, it is also appropriate to ask the the Representative if he had asked gun owners within his congressional district what their opinions were regarding gun control laws.
We cannot reach a consensus by assumptions.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:32 am
So Alexi is up with an add attacking Kirk for voting yes, when Kirk actually voted no…the only way alexi can get ahead is by distorting the facts. I am sure team Kirk caught that and was happy to fire back. Can’t imagine this helping alexi’s fundraising operation.
Comment by anon Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:33 am
I have now seen both the Kirk and Giannoulias ads twice on the tube.
Comment by Harry Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:34 am
The fallen soldiers video is very powerful. The poor quality of it - like a home video - makes it very emotional and honest. (Ironically, not words typically associated with the State Capitol).
If only it could be shown on TV during the local news.
Comment by KeepSmiling Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:37 am
Is Rep Arroyo expecting the NRA to support legislation to outlaw handguns? Really?
Rep Arroyo did not respond to anything Mr Vandermyde said. Is he deaf?
What drivel.
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:41 am
Kirk’s ad is okay, but I think it would be more effective as two ads: one attacking Alexi, a second as a Kirk bio. Right now, it’s kind of rushed.
It’s a strong move to the middle, though, touting stem cells and BP dumping. He must not be looking over his shoulder for the tea partiers anymore.
I’ve always wondered: what is Naval Intelligence doing in landlocked Afghanistan? It’s weird, kind of like the father in the Sound of Music being in the Austrian navy.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:41 am
Wordslinger -
Naval Intelligence supports the Marines, as the Marine Corp is part of the Navy.
Comment by A.B, Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:47 am
I am really disappointed in the people running Alexi’s campaign. Alexi’s ad is lackluster and the charges levied against Kirk are not even true -
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2004/roll509.xml
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2004/roll259.xml
The ad is easily refutable and does not blow my skirt up. Alexi is proving to be more amateurish and a less savvy campaigner than I hoped.
Comment by Don't blame me, I voted for Hoffman... Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:51 am
The Kirk ad shows why this is such an atrocious matchup for the Dems. It’s an excellent ad - say an 8.
Alexi’s has no punch. Not that Adelstein hasn’t done a good job with what he’s got generally, but it’s really hard when the facts for them are sooooo bad - a 3.
The NRSC could have been devastating, but I don’t get the thing with the dog. What is the dog supposed to represent? I mean I get the cliche, but huh? That said, any opportunity for them to say “Feds seize Giannoulias bank” and “Broadway loaned $20 mil to mobsters” is bad for Alexi. So say a 5.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:55 am
Todd vs. Arroyo….4.22 of boring. it’s just the same old stuff. if you get video of someone getting in Todd’s face about why
he and his ilk do things like tie the hands of the ATF, now that
will be worth a look.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:01 am
I made a pledge several years ago to never support a politician of either party who says he or she will ‘fight’ for me or claims to be ‘fighting’ for a cause. Such ridiculous political assertions must poll well but remind me of Sam Spade’s great line: “the cheaper the crook the gaudier the patter.”
Comment by walter sobchak Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:02 am
@wordslinger
Captain Georg von Trapp served in the Austro-Hungarian navy from the late 19th century until the end of WWI in 1918. Throughout that time, the city of Trieste and all of the Dalmatian coast (now Croatia), resting on the Adriatic Sea, was in Austria-Hungary. Their navy’s home port was in Trieste. Accordingly, Austria-Hungary under the Hapsburgs had a substantial navy. After Austria-Hungary lost the war in 1918, the Hapsburg Empire was dissolved by the Treaty of Versailles, requiring the shedding of Trieste to Italy and Dalmatia to the new state of Yugoslavia. The remaining landlocked Germanic state of Austria, which is the Austria you know, has largely kept that border (with the exception of the Nazi era) through to today. Captain von Trapp as featured in the movie and the musical “Sound of Music” is in retirement, as he was after 1920.
Comment by Conservative Republican Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:11 am
Captain Georg von Trapp served in the Austro-Hungarian navy,
Ironically, he was a submarine commander
Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:24 am
The Kirk campaign is steady as she goes. Kirk is doing his earned media stuff on issues around the state. His team is appropriately highlighting the issues around Broadway Bank. He’s raising bags o’ cash.
His ad is very solid. I’d agree that it combines the Alexi hit and the bio info into a tight squeeze, but that’s minor.
Kirk can go dollar for dollar with Alexi right now, keep Broadway in everyone’s minds and force Alexi to spend precious resources to try and get out of a big hole.
Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:32 am
Agree with Sent from my iPhone, the generic “he’s a Republican” isn’t going to be enough. Not a good ad, Kirk has more extreme votes the Giannoulias campaign could call out. Also, if Giannoulias isn’t going to be able to raise his negatives out of the toilet then he may as well go more negative himself. Maybe they’re waiting to see if they can put Broadway Bank behind them; only focus groups in late summer will bear that out.
Comment by old pol Mike Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:41 am
1. Someone should tell radogno, perhaps her daughter on team mark kirk that she can a)smile b)not look at the media camera like it’s a serial killer c) both a and b. No one likes a scowling politician.
2. Alexi’s campaign reminds me of Rick Santorum’s in 2006 where the guy knew he was headed for a tough defeat and started unleashing his 2002 talking points in an attempt to make something stick. When it’s may and you are already scraping the bottom of the barrel in means one thing: you are screwed.
3. The Democrats don’t realize how stupid hartmarx is. That won’t win them a thing in the suburbs where the fight will be this fall and where 6 figure earning professionals want to see government cut and their job security increased. The battle is over upper middle class moderates this fall not working class partisans. That ad may work in weller’s district but it won’t work in the real battle grounds of suburban cook, lake, mchenry and dupage county. Think ferris bueller’s father or clark griswold.
4. Kirk’s ad is perfect. He is the best suburban republican politician in america right now, bar none, look it up at nationaljournal.com if you don’t believe me. No other republican in congress right now has won 3 tough suburban races over the last decade and that little bit about bp and the enviornment is exactly why. That line sings to social liberals in glencoe, something alexi’s hartmarx thing does not do.
Comment by shore Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:44 am
===The battle is over upper middle class moderates this fall not working class partisans. ===
You are hopelessly and permanently stuck in the 10th CD mindset.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:55 am
- Also, if Giannoulias isn’t going to be able to raise his negatives out of the toilet then he may as well go more negative himself. -
This does not work on a normal campaign. You must raise your opponent’s negatives while raising you own positives. They work independently of one another. Too much negative either drives the voters away from the race or they vote for your opponent. My favorite example, see Rep Sullivan vs. Amanda Howland, 2006.
===The battle is over upper middle class moderates this fall not working class partisans. ===
Rich - I think he was trying to say that this is a race for the vote from the collar counties, which many believe is true for statewide candidates in Illinois. The thought being that the larger segments of the working class fall into the city or rural communities. However it that perspective was stated VERY poorly.
Comment by A.B, Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 12:16 pm
I am usually sceptical of the beltway party apparatchiks’ media efforts, but that Alexi “The Dog Ate My Homework” ad is a scream! LOL Keep it coming….
It’s a bad sign when you can subject a candidate to abject ridicule…
Comment by Conservative Republican Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 12:16 pm
Amilia, how has ATF’s hands been tied exactly?
Comment by Melancton Smith Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 12:22 pm
This video of Alexi’s (as well as several other recent ones) suggests that Mr. Giannioulias and his campaign staff do not have a very good read on what things are motivating the broader electorate these days, and what is annoying the broader electorate these days about politicians–regardless of their party affiliation. Unfortunately for Alexi I think it also makes some voters reasonably question how he might govern if he is that generally out of touch with the mood of the public.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 12:42 pm
===generally out of touch with the mood of the public===
Maybe, or maybe he’s out of touch with the mood of people like yourself. There’s more to it than what y’all think.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 12:45 pm
right because the real battleground of this race is the southwest side of chicago.
or not.
Comment by shore Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Shore, the battleground is the suburbs, but those people aren’t all high income execs. The battle, as it always is in statewide races here, is for suburban women. Win them, win the state. Very little different from previous years.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:13 pm
shore, Rich is right. If the two ads are running during the same timeframe and “regular folk” are comparing them, Alexi’s ad is hitting home for the many who are struggling everywhere.
While Kirk’s bio is always impressive, it’s not clearly linked in the ad to issues that he’s in a better position to resolve because of that background and knowledge. Same with his positions on stem cell and Lake Michigan. It’s a matter of priorities, and some are seeing day-to-day survival as number one right now.
Link his background more clearly to national defense and security issues, and you’ve got a hit. Tie stem cell and Lake Michigan more clearly to helping folks who are ill, etc., and you’ve got a hit.
Right now the ad probably is a bit “rushed” and there’s an assumption that folks are going to make those connections on their own. However, I don’t think they will when “jobs” and job “security” are the first things they’re thinking about.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:32 pm
I was talking more about middle management professionals in skokie, deerfield, northbrook, elmhurst, who make low 6 figures like 160k a year tops, send their kids to u of I, drive mini vans like peter roskam, are pro abortion like mark kirk, pro enviornment, fiscal moderates worried about losing their jobs at baxter and the potential their graduating kids won’t find jobs. They go to whole foods for special occasions not to get their weekly groceries, work at alstate and revere patrick fitzgerald.
I don’t see how hartmarx factory worker commercials win them over.
Comment by shore Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:36 pm
If you can’t help but be completely “cerebral” about it, quote some numbers about job creation related to, and lives that may be saved by, stem cell research.
Provide more detail about the risks associated with what BP was trying to do and the impact that would have had on everyone’s lives. Otherwise, it’s going to be perceived as a “nice to have” for those who live near the Lake.
Might sound silly and ridiculous, but I’d argue that’s the way Voters think. They want to FEEL that someone is going to HELP them.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:45 pm
===
…fiscal moderates worried about losing their jobs at baxter…
===
And you THINK Lake Michigan is the first thing on their minds?
Get out of your own neighborhood and go talk to some people, shore. Take a look around.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Here’s a suggestion, shore. Go talk to the IT professionals around Baxter, Round Lake. You know, the people who live in the new developments that have gone up in the last 10 year or so. Ask them how they’re doing and what they’re concerns are.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:56 pm
…their concerns are.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 1:56 pm
One more suggestion, shore: While you’re talking to them, let go of your North Shore “complacency” for a couple of minutes–and pretend that they could be you some day.
Does that help?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:19 pm
You, too, Responsa.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:20 pm
OK - You guys convinced me…
Alexi Giannoulais would lose this race for the US Senate to Captain Georg von Trapp.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:22 pm
Anon talking education to teachers unions and talking about education to parents are 2 very different sets of talking points. Talking economy to service sector suburbanites is very different than talking economy to blue collar factory workers.
Alexi does not do that in that ad. the one he needs is talking about innovation, technology, entreprenuership and all the other buzz words and talking points that appeal to middle management, small business owners, attorneys and others that live in lake county, suburban cook and dupage.
as for not getting it, I’ll admit kirk has not had a job in his adult life in Illinois or that of the 28 years since he graduated college approximately 2 of them have been in a profit making entity and that was a dc law firm. But it’s much more of a stretch to say that alexi a francis parker-boston university-tulane millionaire heir knows the plight of working class voters. Kirk still has student loan debt. I don’t think alexi’s ever had to worry about that.
Comment by shore Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:26 pm
Oh for crissake, shore. Haven’t you heard that law students are under the impression (wrong or right) that even “LAW” is being highly outsourced to India?
Do you get out to talk to ANYBODY at all, shore?!!!!
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:41 pm
And who the heck are “blue collar factory workers” anymore, shore? Alot of our manufacturing is gone. They’ve been replaced by, e.g., IT professionals in HEALTHCARE, which a decade ago was the “safe” profession to be in for the lower- to mid- middle class, and has since gone down the tubes, too.
So what’s the next new profession or industry to be in here in the US, shore? Small business, hospitality, nursing, stem cell?
Why isn’t the ad talking about that? The Rockford trips and publicity, and endorsement by the small biz group was good, but is the ad referencing that? No. It’s talking about Lake Michigan.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:49 pm
the question was about the ads not a chance to see who still remembers the john kerry 2004 talking points.
Comment by shore Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:51 pm
I think we are missing the key component here…
Strategically, Mark Kirk just took environment and stem cell research out of the campaign. Giannoulias can’t effectively attack the Republican candidate on those issues. A.G. can’t attack on money, because it automatically brings back his baggage.
Money = Gone
Environment = Gone
Stem Cell Research = Gone
Abortion = Never in play
Gun Control = Never in play
Topics for A.G. to attack on are getting slim…
Comment by A.B, Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:56 pm
Thank goodness for V-Man. lol Where would we all be without you, your humor–and your timing?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 2:57 pm
===
…just took…stem cell research out of the campaign….
===
Hmmm…don’t know. Tricky, I’ll admit, but I’m not completely sure about that one yet. For a variety of reasons.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 3:17 pm
Luis Arroyo wants to know what laws they can enact to stop people shooting other people in his district. How about we make it illegal to shoot someone?
Comment by Melancton Smith Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 5:00 pm
–Anonymous @2.20 “You too, Responsa”. –
Let me just say first of all that I am interested in politics and governance but I am not affiliated with a campaign, am not paid by a campaign, do not volunteer for a campaign other than having a yard sign, and do not consult for a campaign. Let me say secondly that like everybody else here I obviously vote where my house is located. Conveniently, that happens to be the same CD in which I work. Thirdly, yes, like most people I have some fundamental economic and political beliefs that influence who I vote for but also like many people I have crossed party lines more than once.
Now—Rich posted several ads and asked us to rate them. Back at 12:42 I said why I think Alexi’s ad misses the mark. I did not mention policy. I opined that I think he is misreading and therefore missing the flavor-the general tenor of voter angst and what they are looking for in candidates this year–regardless of their party and especially if they are independents.
Anonymous, it matters not a whit to me personally if you think these observations are stupid or meaningless or partisan. But intead of arguing back, have you considered that maybe, just maybe there are a lot more voters across Illinois in similar circumstances who will view Alexi’s ads the same as I do? Voters that you seem very willing and even happy to blow off?
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 5:17 pm
Read Melancton’s comment, shore.
Children of all ages are dying in the streets of Chicago and our suburbs (including those in Lake County), Kirk is big on leading the stop against gang violence–and the ad is talking about Lake Michigan.
Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 5:23 pm
oh, MS…..the NRA has worked for years to ensure that the ATF does not get the money it needs to do a real job, that law enforcement cannot keep records that would assist in finding
the bad dudes who vend guns illegally. but then, you know that.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 10:52 pm
The ATF has plenty of money to outfit all their tough guys in combat pajamas I notice. Why should they be given more to do when they’ve pretty much failed at their primary mission, the keeping of a mere couple hundred thousand tax records submitted to them by lawful gun owners. What makes you think they can handle a couple hundred million more records?
No, collecting taxes and keeping records wasn’t sexy enough for them, not with all their friends at FBI getting to dress up and kick down doors.
Frankly, it sounds like ATF and FBI are duplicating much of their efforts. Dissolve ATF’s military force and let them collect tax stamps again. Leave enforcement to actual cops.
Comment by Melancton Smith Tuesday, May 4, 10 @ 11:52 pm
Melancton, whine, whine, whine. the fact is, your side wants
to stop the ATF at every turn, is afraid of records being kept, and wants those on the terroist watch list to still be able to get guns. good luck with trying to pretend like you want to stop the violence.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, May 5, 10 @ 6:30 pm
So in other words, Amalia, you got nothing?
Comment by Melancton Smith Wednesday, May 5, 10 @ 7:02 pm