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* I haven’t commented on the “lessons Illinois can learn” from this week’s primaries in other states because I haven’t really seen all that much to learn from.
But that hasn’t stopped others from tossing in their two cents. Here’s the Southern Illinoisan…
Here’s the bummer for the kings of fence-sitting: The backlash has started. It’s called the Tea Party. It’s called the recent party convention and primary election results.
Ask Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, who won’t be returning to the U.S. Senate. His party bounced him. Ask former Republican and current Democrat Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. When the next Congress convenes, the longtime fixture won’t be taking his seat in the Senate. His state’s voters have called him home. Ask Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson how much good his pedigree and endorsements did him Tuesday night.
Downstate Illinois legislators: Do you think your constituents like you so much personally they will continue to tolerate the feudal homage you pay to your Chicagoland counterparts and the excuses you bring home?
First off, there are no real contested races in the Southern Illinoisan’s coverage area. So I doubt those incumbents are quaking in their boots.
The Utah GOP has moved way anti-establishment Right, Pennsylvania Democrats weren’t all that turned on by a lifelong Republican who admitted he switched parties to win his election and Kentucky Republicans went with a charismatic, successful, conservative outsider with a well-known name and rejected a slightly more moderate and still popular statewide official. I don’t see how that applies much to the general election non-contests in southern Illinois.
* CBS2…
Usually politicians like to publicize their deep experience as something that gives them an edge. But whether we’re talking about Illinois’ U.S. Senate race or several congressional match-ups, there’s worry experience might turn off voters, and that’s something candidates may not have experienced to this level before.
I agree that both candidates for US Senate have experience problems. The word “congressman” is not exactly popular, and “Republican congressman” is even more unpopular. Alexi Giannoulias’ experience as state treasurer included some big problems with a college savings fund. Several congressional races are in flux right now because of the votes taken by incumbent Democrats, not so much generic experience.
Keep in mind that two of the more “experienced” statewide officials in Illinois have zero worries this fall. Secretary of State Jesse White will cruise to reelection, as will Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Polls show AG Madigan is the most popular politician in the state, despite the fact that she’s the daughter of the House Speaker, who is portrayed as all but evil by most media outlets.
* Pantagraph…
[The recent results show] that “experience” and “seniority” might not carry the weight with voters that they once did.
That should be a wakeup call to incumbents in Illinois, too, and a reminder not to take too lightly independent and third-party candidates who are challenging established politicians.
The Pantagraph then goes on to undermine its argument by noting how goofy the two independent hopefuls are, then concludes…
There have to be better qualified people in Illinois capable of running as independent candidates for governor to lift up the debate and focus the campaign on solutions to our many problems — perhaps someone who can stay above the political fray (as much as one can when running for office) and isn’t worried about re-election in four years.
That would be the “magic beans” solution.
* We’re also getting analysis that piggybacks issues onto the alleged voter revolt…
You don’t have to look to Kentucky where ophthalmologist Rand Paul won the Republican U.S. Senate nomination Wednesday after mounting a Tea Party-themed campaign of anger and upheaval.
You don’t have to look anywhere but right here. The movement was born in places such as Fuentes’ wood-paneled insurance office on Oak Park Avenue.
For years, local, state and federal lawmakers have promised to revitalize the Southland economy. They understand the property tax system and its inherent failures. Cook County businesses are taxed double, in many cases, what Will County charges.
Here’s a stark example: The Cracker Barrel restaurant off Harlem Avenue in Tinley Park, in Will County, paid $37,239 in property tax last year. The Cracker Barrel near Interstate 57 in Matteson, in Cook County, paid $168,395 in property tax last year.
I’m pretty sure both places are serving up the same chicken and dumplings.
But lawmakers haven’t fixed the problem. They should be working endlessly to detonate the iceberg that is Cook County’s tax classification system. Instead, our elected officials are standing on the ship deck wagging fingers while their constituents scramble for the lifeboats.
I get why businesses are upset with Cook County’s classificiation system. But what’s not mentioned is that if Cook lowers business taxes, then homeowner taxes will have to radically increase. That would spark a real revolt. Cook essentially subsidizes homeowners by making businesses pay more.
* While I’m not much for Newt Gingrich’s political analysis, I do have to agree with this…
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Bennett lost in part because he was “too reasonable,” meaning he was a get-along guy when voters are looking for somebody who will buck authority. “People want folks who have an edge,” he said, “and will fight.”
Yep. But incumbents can also portray themselves as fighters and even outsiders. Pat Quinn did that in his primary and won. Longtime legislator Bill Brady is doing it in the general.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:19 am
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Wow StatewideTom and SenateRepublicanLeader must be very happy the primary was too early for all the wingnuts to get fired up.
They would have been out of incumbents if there was that June primary that StateWideTom sought
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:27 am
I’ve never seen anything like this campaign year, so I’m taken aback at what I’ve been witnessing.
Here’s my take - when the economy tanked, citizens recognized that they were in a precarious position personally with a debt load that threatened everything they have. As the news worsened in 2009, citizens became even more worried. As governments borrowed and spent billions, then trillions - citizens were going in the opposite direction - paying off their debts.
So, common sense dictated paying back debts, not making them worse, but governments aren’t doing that. So the personal worry that carries over from their personal debts, is now being carried over into government debts. Why? Partly because we have been expecting governments to be our safety nets when times get bad. Now that times went bad, they are seeing their safety nets threatened, and they are angry.
If you are an incumbant responsible for any part of the spending cycle, and your polls show you under 50% support - you are vulnerable for re-election. This partly explains why voters can support an Attorney General and a Secretary of State, but not support a legislator, a governor, or an agency head. Voters want to see their safety nets mended, and government debts paid in order to make this happen. They are willing to throw anyone overboard to do this, whether it is a Speaker, a Senator, or Civil Service Employees.
What we’ve witnessed over the past year also reflects this. The “Party of No” is being countered by the “Party of Debt”. I do not believe that if we weren’t in debt, there wouldn’t be so much concern over big governments.
The irritant is debt. If you are responsible for it in any way, and you are an incumbant without majority support, you are a target.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:35 am
The idea that a Tea Party wave is sweeping the country is absurd. The movement is quite small for a social movement (even a standard Iraq war protest could draw 10x the people who show up at their largest rallies), and winning primaries (which are typically less moderate) means little for how the general electorate will pan out. Rich’s point about how each of these races have no applicability to this state is spot-on.
Comment by jonbtuba Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:42 am
===but governments aren’t doing that===
Japan sharply reduced its deficit when its leaders thought the recession was almost over and wound up making things much, much worse for years. Same thing happened during the Great Depression here when FDR tried to reduce the deficit. People hate that debt, and it’s understandable, but the cure could be far, far worse.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:44 am
I think if the Tea Party was going to make a lot of noise here it would have been in the GOP primary. They’re probably a plus for Brady in the general.
Best headline of the day in NY Daily News:
“New hero of Tea Party Rand Paul is so conservative he scares Dick Cheney”
I don’t know by what definition Dick Cheney is a conservative, but the headline’s funny. Cheney objects to Paul’s views on his administrations efforts in Iraq and Afghansistan.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 9:45 am
Why not competitively bid all tax funded jobs, not just blue collar contractor work?
With the significant cost savings from competition for our tax dollars, we could hire more people at lower pay to reduce unemployment, provide more services, and/or reduce expenditures.
Is that just a trivial magic bean, or to politically painful to insiders hooking up friends and family?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:01 am
Rich, you said,
“I get why businesses are upset with Cook County’s classificiation system. But what’s not mentioned is that if Cook lowers business taxes, then homeowner taxes will have to radically increase. That would spark a real revolt. Cook essentially subsidizes homeowners by making businesses pay more.”
I am always curious why your first instinct is to say taxes must rise. Do you ever consider a combination of REDUCED SPENDING long with targeted, consumption-based, sunsetted tax increases as a viable alternative?
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:12 am
People hate that debt, and it’s understandable, but the cure could be far, far worse.
Well, no one is selling the cure. No one is standing up and explaining to citizens why it is OK to have debt as a share of the economy to exceed 60 percent this year. No one is willing to tell citizens that they cannot have what they thought they bought and paid for their entire working lives.
Political turmoil will continue as long as voting citizens feel threatened by government debt and a no-growth economy.
The average voter isn’t ideological - there is a balance that has been noted over history. So, attempts to turn this into an ideological struggle is missing the picture. The Tea Parties are being lead by ideology, but by concerns over big government debt. Seniors are in the Tea Parties because they feel that their Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security safety nets are gone because of big government debt and Obamacare.
I believe in Democracy, not ideology, so I welcome these citizen actions. I had no problem with liberals crying over Iraq, I have no problems with unions defending their members, so I have no problems watching the Aunties, Grandpas and Joe Six-Packs voting out incumbants, regardless of political party.
The common sense, knowledge and wisdom within a random selected group of Americans is greater than the knowledge and wisdom of our current political leadership. Let the chips fall where they may. We are in for several years of turmoil.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:23 am
You hit the nail on the head when you mention the lack of competitive elections. It is fine to say that people will get so disgusted with Springfield they will vote all of the incumbents out — but how does that work when there is no other name on the ballot or the other name is someone who is not viable in any way? As the old saw goes, “you can’t beat somebody with nobody”.
Comment by Lakefront Liberal Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:36 am
great post, Rich.
one of the differences with Illinois races this year is that while most will try to paint themselves as outsiders, I don’t think any of the major candidates are true outsiders + true heroes of the progressive netroots or libertarian or tea party movement.
Governor: Incumbent vs. Longtime State Legislator
Senator: State officeholder vs. Moderate Congressman
Treasurer: Treasurer Chief of Staff vs. State Legislator
Comptroller: State Legislator vs. Former state officeholder
(assuming AG and SoS aren’t really contested)
Comment by Robert Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:49 am
===People hate that debt, and it’s understandable, but the cure could be far, far worse.===
Absolutely agree - this is why I don’t mind SOME of the budget tricks (raiding funds, skipping a pension payment) being considered; it is certainly a balancing act between how much to tax, how much to cut spending, and how much to budget trick (i.e., continuing to increase debt). There is no viable solution that doesn’t involve budget tricks, and that’s okay.
Comment by Robert Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 10:52 am
1. the understatement of the year is that government is disconnected from voters. the establishment does not get it which is why it is getting thrown out.
2. politics is not a lifetime appointment. these guys that are losing and people here-coulson, dillard, ryan, hastert, specter presented campaigns from a different era which were ignorant of the challenges facing voters.
3. greg hinz noted earlier this week that a lot of the wholesale firing of the political establishment that is happening elsewhere and which has not taken place here is worthy of discussion and I am looking forward to what I hope will be commentary on why with things so awful here, we are unlikely to see the sort of political establishment upheaval that I would like to see.
3. chicago tonight now uses skype to talk to people outside the city, including lynn sweet and dave mckinney from dc and springfield so I look forward to seeing you on the program now more often.
Comment by shore Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 11:07 am
A WTTW producer talked to me about Skyping from Spfld yesterday, shore.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 11:09 am
However, I don’t see a “wholesale firing” happening anywhere.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 11:10 am
Before we praise the tea party canidates, you might consider one of them is now getting hammered for opposing civil rights and the idea that govenrment can tell a business not to discrminate! the story just hit now after the primay and it has a lot of legs. So now the tea party canidate may hav just cohened himself into unelectability.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:04 pm
Ghost, it’s Kentucky. I doubt he Cohened himself.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:04 pm
Great campaign analysis of the primaries. I agree wholeheartedly. I can’t stand when people try to make grand generalizations from a few separate elections. Each state is different,and unique with their own issues and landscapes and should be taken as such.
I’m not sure if I agree with the last lime about the classification system in Cook County though. I think I could buy into that argument if the game wasn’t so rigged, and many of the bigger businesses were actually paying what they are supposed to instead of getting their assessments lowered by insiders.
Comment by Bring Back Boone's Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:09 pm
Can we all agree that these were an anti-establishment elections? Our problem in Hellinois is that there is not anti-establishment.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:13 pm
===getting their assessments lowered by insiders. ===
You could total all that up and it wouldn’t amount to much. Plus, if you look at the late Maureen Murphy’s case, you’d see that you’re probably wrong anyway.
Murphy was a House Republican who hated Madigan and the feeling was quite mutual. After losing her House seat, she ran for Board of Review on the solemn pledge to stop MJM and others from improperly lowering assessments. Once she got there, she realized that the requests were within the law, so she voted with everybody else. Never heard from her again.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:14 pm
Ghost, you said,
“So now the tea party canidate may hav just cohened himself into unelectability.”
Here is an analysis of Rand Paul’s from the well known right-wing bastion, the Washington Post:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-now/2010/05/rand_paul_telling_the_truth.html
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:19 pm
Who gives a rip what some overpaid gasbags calling themselves pundits think about politics. My kitty has a better grasp on the political situation than alot of those guys!!
Joe Shmo carried precint #4 in “Lost in the Woods County” somewhere, therefore the anti- incumbent candidates going to sweep into every office even down to the mosquito abatement district heads this coming election!!
Good Lord pundits!! Get a grip!!!
train111
Comment by train111 Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:21 pm
Definition of “symptom”: A characteristic sign or indication of the existence of something else.
Here’s my take on the Tea Party and what it means in upcoming elections both local and national: The Tea Party is certainly not a third party or a movement unto itself–it is merely one manifestation, or a symptom of a general unease that many citizens, especially mature citizens are feeling right now. They worry about the crushing debt and the ever greater burden imposed by government through taxes and mandates (and corruption). Not everyone who feels this way considers themselves a tea partier or goes to rallies, but many do instinctively understand where their tea party neighbors are coming from, and find it very troubling when the tea party rallies are mocked and vilified.
When a normally good cat pees outside its litter box that is often a symptom of a bladder problem. When a once studious teen rebels and starts skipping school, it may be the symptom of drug use, or depression, or bullying. In both examples the cat and teen are acting out. Yet getting at, and dealing with their underlying very real problem is what is needed, not chastisement or yelling about the symptom.
Establishment politicians and incumbents, as well as some in the media might do well in 2010 to at least try to view the tea partiers as a symptom, rather than as a problem– and actually listen to what they are saying rather than imagining sinister motives and conspiracies.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:23 pm
Good point Rich
Comment by Bring Back Boone's Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:24 pm
===Here is an analysis of Rand Paul’s from the well known right-wing bastion, the Washington Post:===
LOL
That link leads to “Right Now,” a blog written by David Weigel. From the Politico…
===David Weigel, who’s been covering the right for the Washington Independent, will soon be heading to the Washington Post. Weigel joins the Post on April 5, and will be launching a blog focused on the conservative movement, tea party activists, and how the GOP’s preparing for November. ===
Cincinnatus, try not to be so easily debunked. It’s barely sporting. We’re grownups here, not children.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:24 pm
A conservative/libertarian watching the conservative movement for a liberal paper has less credibility than liberal reporters working for liberal papers, or running state-centric websites?
“Despite these concerns Weigel himself claims to be sympathetic to the conservative movement, not an adversary to it. When asked by e-mail for comment on how he plans to conduct his reporting at the Washington Post he replied:
“I come out of the conservative movement, believe it or not. I edited a conservative newspaper in college (the Northwestern Chronicle); I worked for Reason; I voted for Ron Paul in the 2008 primaries. And frankly, I like how the conservative movement and the GOP work. While the Democratic Party is a collection of interest groups, the GOP is an ideological coalition, composed of people proud to tell you what they believe and why. At the same time, there are elements out there that are clear threats to a sensible GOP and a strong conservative movement — the birther nuts, scam artists who profit off of the-government-is-collapsing paranoia — and I relish in exposing those people.’
“In the end, Weigel’s political leanings are, perhaps, of less concern than those of his employer.”
From: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/stephen-gutowski/2010/03/22/washington-post-hires-liberal-blogger-cover-conservatives
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 12:40 pm
Before we praise the tea party canidates, you might consider one of them is now getting hammered for opposing civil rights and the idea that govenrment can tell a business not to discrminate! the story just hit now after the primay and it has a lot of legs. So now the tea party canidate may hav just cohened himself into unelectability.
I doubt “praise” is the verb. I have read a lot more insulting comments about Tea Partiers than praises over the past year, especially from “experts” who seem to hate being upstaged by sincere citizens expressing their freedoms.
I also took a look at these “Paul” comments, and Paul has made it clear that he doesn’t differ from the majority of Americans on this hypothetical question. Voters know no one can turn back time, nor want to, and Paul isn’t proposing such a thing because he knows it would be impossible and politically suicidal. There is no “gotcha” here.
Rich is right. Kentucky isn’t Massachusetts. Polls out today show Paul with a 25 point lead against a Democrat that sounds like he ought to be running in Massachusetts.
Gee, say “Tea Party”, and so many folks go ape crazy looking for some kind of evil demon. Tea Partiers are your neighbors, and they will make up a great deal of votes in November. Dis at your own risk.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 2:23 pm
=by a lifelong Republican=
This isn’t correct. Arlen Specter is not a lifelong Republican. He switched parties in his first run for public office to run against a Democrat.
=Before we praise the tea party canidates, you might consider one of them is now getting hammered for opposing civil rights and the idea that govenrment can tell a business not to discrminate=
Except Rand Paul supports civil rights and he opposes discrimination.
Paul’s problem is his views aren’t in the past. His views are actually the future. The state’s attempts to end segregation were mostly correct, but it’s demands for immediacy create toxic environments that create more bad “fixes” for issues that citizens will resolve anyway.
Comment by Brennan Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 2:53 pm
==The common sense, knowledge and wisdom within a random selected group of Americans is greater than the knowledge and wisdom of our current political leadership. Let the chips fall where they may. We are in for several years of turmoil.==
You wish. Lighten up.
A few bumps in he road and people go hysterical. Take a look at history, and odds are we’ll continue on a very strong arc of increasing power and freedom.
You know, like the last, best hope on earth should be.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 4:45 pm
By ending discrimination, especially in the entrenched South, the Civil Rights Act was one of the crowning achievements of our government. Unfortunately, its overwhelming success has led Americans to believe that the Federal Government can solve any and all problems in the US. Since then, we have seen an increasing use of the Federal Government to limit individual freedoms and liberties. We now have Pay Czars and an unelected Federal Bureaucracy declaring CO2 as a pollutant. Do you not think the underlying abstraction being argued by Paul, that the Federal Government cannot and should not try to be the final authority on ALL issues a valid issue for debate? Has our political discourse sunk to the point where any person engaged in the debate about the proper role of government is deemed a racist?
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, May 20, 10 @ 6:16 pm
Bob Bennett was dumped because he represented the most conservative state in the union (or close to it), and he made the mistake of getting too comfortable with his hand on the faucet of appropriations. That, combined with TARP, were enough to do it in Utah. Plus Utah’s system lends itself to activists.
As for Rand–pointing out that there are hypothetical and, some would argue, constitutional problems with with Civil Rights Act problems with the Civil Rights Act doesn’t make anyone a racist, just like pointing out there are constitutional issues in the Patriot makes someone a terrorist sympathizer. But it is also a good object lesson in why politicians should not expect a fair discussion about race or anything else–they should be in campaign mode. Especially on an “enemy” TV show. It’s just smart–now Rand is getting attacked over a bill he’s never read and doesn’t have any relevance to his race.
On the act itself: it is entirely possible an amendment was necessary to do what some part of that bill did, just like an amendment was necessary for Prohibition or various suffrage movements. Skipping such a step is government overreach. I don’t know enough about the mechanics of the act to know for sure if that was necessary.
Comment by Liandro Friday, May 21, 10 @ 3:30 am
===I don’t know enough about the mechanics of the act to know for sure===
And that’s why you should’ve never posted that goofy comment.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, May 21, 10 @ 9:59 am
I’ve read and heard some pretty solid arguments explaining why aspects of the bill were potentially unconstitutional, and on how the commerce clause is being stretched beyond all possible original intent. I’ve also read some very solid pieces on unintentional and unfortunate side effects of the Civil Rights Act. You may call that academic, but interpreting the commerce clause has real and current repercussions. Since you don’t say exactly what portion of my comment is “goofy”, I can’t respond effectively. The cause of civil rights is about as noble as any, but just like in the suffrage movements we may have been better served by amending the Constitution first. As someone sworn to uphold the Constitution, I don’t get the option of ignoring it or even bending it.
Comment by Liandro Friday, May 21, 10 @ 10:54 am