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* As I told subscribers this morning, Public Policy Polling has released more results from its latest poll. PPP’s April results are in parentheses…
Brady 34% (43)
Quinn 30% (33)
Whitney 9% (n/a)
Undecided 27% (24)
This is the first time that PPP included Green Party nominee Rich Whitney in its polling, so that led to some of the change since April.
* From the pollster…
Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is his own worst enemy. 50% of Illinois voters disapprove of him, while only 27% of voters approve and 23% have no opinion. His opponents are generally unknown. 56% of voters have yet to form an opinion of Republican Bill Brady and 80% are unsure of Green Party candidate Rich Whitney.
In a horserace Brady comes out on top with 34% of the vote, even though he is unknown amongst a majority of voters. Governor Quinn follows with 30% and Whitney receives a meager 9%. This may be a sign of people voting against Quinn, not for Brady.
It appears that Governor Quinn has not recovered from his primary battle. 62% of Democrats either disapprove (37%) or have no opinion (25%) of their party’s nominee.
While the same is true for Brady—62% of Republicans either disapprove or have no opinion of their party’s nominee—only 10% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Brady. Quinn has an uphill battle, as he has to regain the support of Democrats who know him and dislike him. Brady simply has to get his name out.
* Quinn is only getting 51 percent of the Democratic vote, which is just plain horrible…
And check out how badly the governor is doing with women voters…
Racial breakdown…
This is what you’d call an extremely unmotivated Democratic electorate.
Quinn’s numbers really haven’t changed much at all over the course of the three Illinois polls PPP has conducted this year. The chances of his actually convincing Illinois voters they like him by November do not seem very good. But he can make voters in this strongly Democratic state think that Brady is an even worse alternative and there’s a lot of room for him to make that argument with most voters not yet having formed an opinion about the GOP nominee.
Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who got 10% of the vote in 2006, is polling at 9% in this poll. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up that level of support. Rod Blagojevich’s reelection was pretty much a foregone conclusion by election day last time so disaffected Democrats could safely cast a vote for Whitney without it resulting in the election of a Republican Governor. It doesn’t look like that will be the case this time and Whitney could see an erosion in support if Democrats who don’t like Quinn still end up voting for him because they feel the need to keep Brady from being elected.
Brady is still favored here but he is not strong enough on his own merits as a candidate for this race to turn into a blowout. It should be competitive into the fall.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:32 pm
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=== This is what you’d call an extremely unmotivated Democratic electorate. ===
I’m tepid about the guv race, but that’s good news for Kirk.
Comment by Team America Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:36 pm
Whitney’s support will collapse to the 1-3% range as soon as voters focus on the specifics of the plans of Quinn and Brady and when they realize that while the specifics of both the D and R plans for the state include some pain they are practical plans that directly address the tough choices facing the state.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:38 pm
===== In a horserace Brady comes out on top with 34% of the vote, even though he is unknown amongst a majority of voters. =====
That gives Quinn the opening to define Brady, but the big question is whether Quinn has the dough to do it.
Comment by Betsy Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:38 pm
Fortunately for Brady he is not Quinn. That will be all he will need to win.
Comment by dancer Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:46 pm
Maybe this time around a Vote for Whitney will be taken as a vote for Lisa Madigan in 2014.
Comment by Fed up Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Based on the Senate poll and this one,I’m seeing a battle to the bottom in both races and a light turnout in November due to people being totally turned off by the nature of the campaign–and the fact that neither side is offering anything concrete in actually fixing the issues outside of blaming the other side.
The victor will depend on who can get ‘their’ people to the polls. It may also lead to some sort of crazy result (e.g. Scott Lee Cohen or the LaRouchies back in ‘86) as well.
train111
Comment by train111 Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:02 pm
In the end, Democratic voters will come home to Quinn. This fall will be a ref on Obama too and Dems will come out to support him, especially if he is perceived as being under siege. Today, I read that Democratic voter outreach groups are currently active in La. to counteract the political effects of the oil spill. There will be similar efforts nationwide as the year progresses. And Obama has a huge grass-roots network.
Still, this should give Brady some hope. Despite some mistakes he is definitely still in the running. May he take advantage of it. We so need to stop being a one-party state controlled by the
Chicago Machine and labor unions, both of which are likely to be fighting hard for the malleable
Quinn.
Comment by cassandra Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:04 pm
There may be a lot more protest votes — votes for the greenie — than the polls point to now. 10% may be the bottom for Whitney. People may be ready to put the Republicans to the test and make them put up.
Comment by Vole Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:06 pm
Democrats it seems to me are much more willing to stay with the home team no matter what. Plus, turnout will likely be low for both parties, but you start out with a lot more Democrats in Illinois.
I think Dems eventually come home to Quinn. They truly have no where else to go (Green? Come on.)
Repubs on the other hand are anti-government to begin with. Many couldn’t care less if they stay home and say a pox on both their houses.
Quinn’s got the lovable loser thing going on, kinda like the Cubs. Sure, he’s bumbling and not real competent, but I think most do get the impression he’s clean. Seems to try, with the best interest of the state at heart. Success record is another story of course.
In contrast the more you get to know Brady, the more you see a too slick, arrogant guy who’s first concern is taking care of Number 1.
I predict Brady blows this thing.
Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:07 pm
More than half the electorate doesn’t know who Brady is. It will be interesting what happens when those folks learn he didn’t pay taxes, opposes equal pay laws, etc.
And if “Brady is still favored here but he is not strong enough on his own merits as a candidate for this race to turn into a blowout” isn’t damning with faint praise, nothing is.
Comment by jonbtuba Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:08 pm
Come on, Illinois is still reliably BLUE.
Brady was a weak primary candidate, and has a weak slate of people running underneath him. Wait until the man child finally releases his tax returns and we see he is just another wealth wannabe.
This things over, Brady just doesn’t know it yet.
Comment by WillyWonka Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:25 pm
As long as Quinn can get out the message about Brady this lead is not at all insurmountable. Hynes’ tactics won’t work for Brady because he’s not going to be splitting Democrats. The moderate independents just have to find out how right wing Brady is and they’ll deliver for Quinn.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:32 pm
Brady ought to concentrate on beating Quinn, and forget about Obama.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:32 pm
Whitney is the only one who has an actual plan for the budget. The others talk big, but haven’t put pen to paper to figure it out.
People are ready for change - they just don’t know that there’s another party out there for them…
Comment by earth549 Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 1:59 pm
If Brady is only leading by four right now then I think Quinn wins when Dems come home and moderates hear about Brady’s extreme views. Quinn will need dollars to make that happen.
Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Carl, to the contrary, once voters really focus on the specifics of Brady and Quinn’s plans, they’ll be even LESS likely to vote for them. Neither of them have any personal credibility, nor do their parties have any credibility.
Comment by PFK Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:05 pm
As Quinn bumbles on, Brady continues to shoot his own foot, Alexi keeps pulling up his bootstraps while Kirk keeps snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. All in all, Democrats may find success out of incompetence.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:05 pm
The poll isn’t a surprise.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:22 pm
Brady should be very happy with the polling. He needs to remain aggressive and on the offensive as much as possible.
If the late -great Norm Van Leer (God rest his beautiful soul) were alive, he’d probably agree with these keys the game:
First, Brady’s next series of campaign ads need to start off with the message that Quinn and the democrats will try to scare voters by pointing out Brady’s voting record and social policy positions. In these ads the Brady campaign must implore voters not to be fooled, and ask voters if they really want four more years of failed democratic leadership holding Illinois hostage, stopping progress and growth? bringing the total to 12 or more miserable years of setbacks for Illinois, e.g., job losses, budget failures, fat cat insider political deals, schemes and scams none of which are in the public interest.
Secondly, Brady also needs to strategically and covertly suppress the black inner city vote, while courting white suburban and collar county vote. He can do this by talking about the undeniably horrid state of the Chicago Public Schools, but careful not to blame the kids, and ask Illinoisans if that is the type of school system (dysfunctional and ineffective) they want statewide? With Quinn’s budget this is where Illinois schools appear to be headed. Under Quinn there has been a lotof regressing, and voters dislike of him underscores this point. Brady should also make an ad out of the resounding booing that Quinn received at the Blackhawks rally. Could 2 million Illinoisans be thrat wrong? No. They were right to boo him.
Lastly, Brady should not run away from his social policy positions or voting record once the democratic-Quinn attacks begin. He should let everyone know that he is a devout Catholic, and that his faith very much guides his positions. But he should also signal that he would never force his beliefs statewide because he believes in the separation of church and state. He should inform everyone that he is open-minded and pragmatic and is willing to work with all Illinoisans to do what is best for the state, and in some instances he knows that will mean he has to compromise to get things done.
Advantage: Bill Brady
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:40 pm
===They were right to boo him. ===
Every politician except Jesse White is booed at Chicago sporting events.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 2:44 pm
–Secondly, Brady also needs to strategically and covertly suppress the black inner city vote, while courting white suburban and collar county vote.–
Covert op, huh? Who in the Illinois GOP has the intelligence experience to pull off such a dastardly and dangerous mission? Only one name comes to mind.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 3:02 pm
The poll numbers should tell Gov. Quinn what happens to “progressive reformers” who turn to the Dark Side and start kissing Mayor Daley’s backside!
Comment by fedup dem Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 3:18 pm
I am actually astonished that Quinns numbers are not lower, or that Brady does not hold a larger margin.
Brady should be more concerned with how close this is given the problems the State is in, and the virtually invisble quinn campaign to date.
Imagine if Quinn started to campaing?
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 3:29 pm
Rich, Jerome Armstrong wrote that Bill Hillsman is going to create Rich Whitney’s ads.
If this is true, it’s a big deal.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 3:29 pm
Even more importantly, word: Who on the R side is capable of “courting” the entire white suburban and collar county vote? lol
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 3:44 pm
Undecided looks (s)he has a pretty good shot at winning this thing; any idea if Undecided has collected enough signatures to get on the ballot?
Comment by Undecided Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 4:01 pm
I think the greens are going to do really well as the ‘none of the above’ vote option.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 4:18 pm
For a depressed Democratic electorate, I would be depressed if I were Brady. 34% is very low after another awful session and an out-of-whack budget.
I see Rich Whitney clearing 10% this cycle. He got 9.4% (I believe) in 2006. I would argue that neither Quinn nor Brady are any more of a step-up than Blago or JBT in terms of electability, and neither candidate will have Rod’s war chest. Unless big business starts dumping cash in Brady’s coffers, I can’t imagine either Brady or Quinn will even total Rod’s mega-bucks COMBINED.
It’s not inconceivable to think we may have a 45-45-10 breakdown that is as razor-thin as the Quinn-Hynes primary in terms of a margin within 1%. I don’t think the end result will be as close as Brady-Dillard, though.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 4:20 pm
Word and Anon 3:44, this is the prototypical year in which the state GOP should (note the non-use of the word “will”) band together and go hard after suburban voters on the state house, state senate, Congressional, Senatorial and gubernatorial levels in a focused, combined race campaign strategy. In past years, it was every candidate for him or herself. That just cannot happen in a year when our chances are better than they have been in 12 years.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 4:25 pm
If those polls on approval among Democrats are accurate, one has to wonder how Quinn ever won the primary. I think I do not understand politics at all any more, or at least understand how voters look at politics. Perhaps the polling questions do not quite have the same import that they used to; i.e., maybe people are so negative on government now that they will vote for somebody they do not approve of while holding their noses, as the lesser of two evils.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 4:50 pm
Thinking about his national rise to political prominence, to my knowledge Obama was not booed at any sporting events, and if he was the reasons was likely purely racial/racist more so than political.
I highly doubt Obama was ever booed while a U.S. Senator at any sporting event in Illinois
Jake, did you not pay any attention to the primary results on the democratic side? Quinn barely won, and lost every county with the exception of 2 or 3. The polls are pretty accurate I’d say. These numbers and other recent polling clearly indicate what polls before the primary predicted. If Quinn is the nominee in Nov ‘10, the democrats lose the guvs mansion.
Kirk Dilliard said it best, Quinn has a had a two year audition and the fact that his supporters are openly admitting on this blog that he is “incompetent” is pretty damning.
Comment by Only Jesse White???? Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 8:51 pm
I’m not a Quinn supporter, but I’m not an opponent either; I wanted him to succeed, and we all have a stake in his success. After two years, I have no difficulty openly admitting he’s incompetent. He’s had his honeymoon and he blew it big time. No hope for improvement. Give him the hook. Not that there’s much improvement to hope for there either.
Comment by Excessively Rabid Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 8:58 pm
Quinn’s a failure after less than 2 years?
Bill Brady’s been flailing around Springfield for 2 DECADES!! Now there’s failure and incompetence.
Of course if you take out all the time Brady’s absent from work, it’s probably more like one decade. Point noted.
Comment by too obvious Wednesday, Jun 16, 10 @ 9:09 pm