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* Despite the polls, the New York Times rates Illinois’ governor’s race as a tossup between Pat Quinn and Bill Brady.
* The Question: Which candidate do you think has the true edge at the moment? Explain.
* Also, here’s a campaign roundup…
* Bob Dold for Congress’ first TV ad
* State Fair limits parade entries from politicians: Gov. Pat Quinn and other statewide officers, as well as their opponents in the November election, were allowed to sign up as entrants, but lower-level county officials and state lawmakers not from the Springfield area were strongly urged to stay away. “We would prefer to see a marching band, for instance,” Squibb said.
* The Strength & Influence of the Top 20 Republican and Democratic County Political Parties
* Quinn marches against violence, for black vote
* Journal Star: Quinn should quit campaigning on state’s dime
* Illinois Governor Pat Quinn’s Politics A Charade?
* Brady pledges to balance Illinois budget in first year
* Brady visits Quincy
* Brady Courts The Immigrant Bloc
* Brady Likes Sales Tax Holiday
* Whitney Releases Federal Tax Returns
* Jesse White endorsed for re-election by the Illinois Education Association
* Madigan calls on Democrats to engage
* Schilling-Hare in virtual tie in latest poll
* Politics but no debate outside Kane center: A political debate almost broke out on the steps of the Kane County Government Center between state Sen. Michael Noland and Steven Rauschenberger, his Nov. 2 Republican opponent, over state finances and Kane County’s own finances.
* Bond still spending, raising more than senate opponent
* 50th House challenger has $4,900 in campaign fund
* Red Dead Light Redemption
* Ald. Leslie Hairston eyes Daley’s job
* Sheriff candidates disagree over deputies’ role in Illiopolis
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:42 pm
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Brady - yuk.
The reason is there is a real demand for change, regardless of the reality of that change. While Illinois is a true blue state, Quinn has been doing a poor job governing and has been making a lot of bad publicity.
Folks I have heard from have said that they are opposed to Quinn, especially after the staff pay raises and his furlough days screw-up. It seems that they aren’t even thinking about Brady’s inability to deal with reality. They seem to be assuming that Brady has the credentials to do the job. It is rather amazing.
So, voters want change, regardless. Brady, unbelievably, has the edge - right now.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:46 pm
Brady has everything going for him in this “throw the bums out election cycle”. Quinn is can’t handle running the State budget, and he can’t handle a large scale reelection campaign. He is still running a one man show, with no professional input. He was an hour and twenty minutes late yesterday for a press pop, that was good economic news for Illinois. Brady’s campaign needs to keep him on message and this election is his.
Comment by ivoted4judy Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:47 pm
No offense to the Grey Lady, but are they still depending on the Tribune writers (or CNC) for their Illinois stuff?
I think Brady has the edge. It really is his race to lose (although he sure is trying). This is an anti-incumbent year and Quinn’s former ticket-mate is headed to the slammer. The centerpiece of Quinn’s campaign is a freaking tax increase for crying out loud. And Dems in Illinois and nationally aren’t energized and are likely to stay home in November.
If Kirk Dillard was the GOP nominee, this race would be over and Dillard would be putting his cabinet together as we type.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Clearly NoTaXbILL Has topped out. They have not let Daddy’s Little Deduction out in open in weeks. StateWideTom & Co are saddling up with Glenn Beck and his dfective friends.
The media has started to understand NoTaxBill’s just say no lines do not solve any problem.
Ds and Indies are understanding what is at stake and the tide has turned.
TTFN
BTW CommandoMakeItUP, his ex and the Honey Honcho running that campaign are not helping either. NoTaxBill spending about 40% of his time explaining those blunders
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:50 pm
It depends on who does the most campaigning. If voters see more of Quinn, than Brady will win. Conversely, the more voters see of Brady, the more likely it is that Quinn will win.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:54 pm
Brady does and will until the Blagojevich trial moves to the sentencing phase.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Brady has the edge, but if Quinn can get out the message on Bradys social positions Quinn can retake the lead. Probem is QUinn has done very little to cover the wie range of extreme positions Brady encompasses, including voting for zoning changes to benefit his private business. That tidbit connects him tightly to blago.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:58 pm
Quinn, because no matter how goofy Quinn can sometimes be, there are still a lot more Ds than Rs in Illinois. Plus, the Dems in Illinois are much better at organizing and putting people on the ground than the Repubs. Add to the mix the fact that Quinn lucked out with the perfect opponent, the hapless Bill Brady. GOP in Illinois has really no place to go but up, but continued ineptitude will prevent Illinois Republicans from capitalizing on national trends to the extent GOP could have, even as huge GOP tidal wave rushes over many other states. Oh, and Obama is still more popular in his home state than anywhere else. He can still do Ds some good on the trail here. Even if half of Obama’s voters are disillusioned with him in Illinois, that still leaves a lot of his voters in this state.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 1:59 pm
Quinn knows how to hand out entitlments to the entitlement class that is so prevelant in Illinois these days. I even think if Blog would run he would win by a landslide. Thats how Illinois has become…an entitlment state
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Brady has the edge, unfortunately he reduces it everytime he opens his mouth. Quinn’s wishy-washy style of government has shown he isn’t any better at solving the states budget problems than his predecessor. Brady could benefit most by sitting back, while Quinn continues to trip over his own tongue, and keeping his mouth shut.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:03 pm
Brady has the edge. Quinn hasn’t figured out when to shut up and stop pushing a tax increase when people are panicked about money.
Comment by A.B. Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:09 pm
Quinn, because he’s not threatening to run the state as if it’s a business. We had 8 years of that at the national level and look what it’s done to this country.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Quinn. I feel like a lot of voters are frustrated with the state and polls are reflecting that for Quinn, but the more word gets out about Brady, the more people are going to flock back to the governor. Especially if Brady doesn’t come up with any realistic plans for the budget.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:13 pm
Neither major candidate is ideal- far from it. If Quinn can make Brady appear extreme to the typical voter, he can win. Brady has the tougher task- making himself appear rational. He has not done a good job thusfar and he can’t hide forever.
Many people voted for the Green candidate last time to protest Blagojevich’s re-election while doing nothing to stop it. The presence of the Greens and S.L. Cohen on the ballot may draw enough of the anti-incumbent vote to hurt Brady.
The trouble Brady has is that he had a higher rating as an unknown (the anti-Quinn) and the more people know him, the less they like him. Whereas Quinn’s negatives are likely to stay the same. All he has to do is drag Brady down.
I think Quinn wins by less than 1 percent.
Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:14 pm
” We had 8 years of that at the national level and look what it’s done to this country”
So the last 8 years at the state level were great? I guess I missed that. Was it in the newspapers?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:16 pm
My brother is a life long strong D, blue collar, downstate union guy.
He told me he was sick to hear about the 30% pay raises to the Gov’s staff and couldn’t understand how Quinn could do that. Said he would NEVER vote for Quinn - final nail in the coffin.
Dad is far into the Dem base. That doesn’t bode well for Quinn.
Comment by Sick Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:17 pm
Anonymous, stick to the question, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:20 pm
I agree that it appears that it is Brady’s election to lose. Quinn sold his soul to win the primary and too many special interests have IOUs to collect. All of these folks want a tax increase to pass, so they can continue to be the beneficiaries of state spending. Quinn needs Brady to make some serious mistakes to make this a race again.
Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Brady has a clear path to victory. Quinn has taken a bad budget problem and made it worse. I’ve lost all hope that he has the capacity to turn state government operations around. I really don’t want to say this…but even hard core democrats like me will not vote for Quinn. Once voters start to focus this Fall, he’s toast.
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Brady and I don’t see that changing by November. Quinn will keep focusing his attacks on Brady’s positions on social issues but most voters recognize this election is not about abortion but how to save Illinois from the economic mess we are in. While Brady is not proposing viable solutions, he is saying he will not raise taxes (unlike Quinn) which resonates with the average person struggling to make ends meet. Plus, Quinn is saddled with the fact that he has been part of the administration for the past 8 years while everything has gone to hell in a handbasket. Unless Brady shoots himself in the foot on an almost daily basis, he should be able to hold on.
Comment by Bluefish Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:24 pm
Friends who are dems and even repubs are talking about holding their noses and voting for Quinn. Brady worries repubs who are more liberal in regards to the social issues. Many recognize that Quinn inherited a mess. If Pat had shown more leadership on the budget issues this would be no contest.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:28 pm
Brady: Quinn’s foibles (MGT Push, 20% staff pay raises, talking about raising the income tax) combined with a weak economy+ anti-incumbent mood give Brady the edge at this time.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:29 pm
Brady has the edge.
Note to ivoted4judy, Brady has brought in some of the most seasoned and respected campaign hands in the state and, word is, he is actually listening.
His message has tightened and he is getting better on the stump and with the press every day.
Obviously the wind is at his back and Quinn’s numbers are horrible and unlikely to move much.
Very telling is the seven-figure attack ad buy by Quinn and the DGA that caused minimal movement in Brady’s ballot numbers.
With a the candidates closely matched in $$, the anti-incumbent mood, Blago trial, state financial mess, and Quinn’s sky-high unfavorables, if Brady stays disciplined, he wins.
Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:30 pm
Hard for me to say. I would give Brady a slight edge. He isn’t the incumbent, but he and Quinn aren’t the most ideal candidates this time around. That’s unfortunate because surely someone ran in February with a strong vision for this state.
Comment by Levois Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:30 pm
I think it will depend on Chi-town turnout. I don’t know who your friends are, Normal, but I hear Dems around here say they will be voting for Brady after the pay raises. That hit home for people looking at pay cuts and double digit unemployment. Brady will pull north of 60 percent downstate, and will hit 70 percent in a lot of central Illinois counties, but that will not be enough unless turnout is depressed in Chicago. I have no illusions about his urban popularity.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:34 pm
Neither have an edge. I agree it’s a toss-up…both of them make me want to toss-up! Neither will win, but one of them will lose and both are competing equally for that loss. As is, unfortunately, common, it will be resolved by who has the better TV commercials and the most frequent airplay in the last two weeks.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:35 pm
The edge goes to Quinn. There are the obvious issues related to Bill Brady: no plan for the economy, budget “solutions” even his own party derides as naive, wayyyyy to right on social issues, a strong desire to gas dogs, and so on.
Yet the best barometer I’ve found has been the combined opinions of my various friends who tend to lean right. All of them have described Brady as too extreme, and I imagine such patterns will be duplicated come November.
Comment by jonbtuba Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:48 pm
I’ll agree with D.P. Gumby on this one — another in a long list of “Blech” choices. We desperately need nutrition, yet we get Twinkies.
And there’s no one to blame but ourselves.
Comment by Northsider Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Here is the July 29th Rasmussen poll:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_governor
Rasmussen has been polling about every two-four weeks in these toss-up states, so I would guess we might see something soon.
If this QOTD were asked a couple of weeks ago, I would have said “Toss-up” since both candidates were in a death match to see who could do the stupidest thing.
However, the help being provided by the national Republican establishment seems to have really benefitted the Brady campaign. He basically went dark, and I think that he took the time to think through what he was doing and get some advice from his team.
During that period of time, Quinn continued on as he was before. I think Quinn is being ill-served by his campaign staff, and members of his administration. We’ve seen a couple of unforced errors in the past two weeks.
I think the current trajectory of this race favors Brady. (Insert usual caveats about how long it is until November here.) I further believe that the race will be in the 5 point range, to Brady.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:49 pm
Quinn = staff pay raises, furlough days, unpaid bills. Brady = much time away from the legislature, paid NO taxes on his state paid income (yeah, yeah, yeah, he didn’t LEGALLY have to), his running mate won’t disclose his income.
When I enter the voting booth, I’ll definitely be holding my nose. I don’t really give a rats behind who wins that office. We will be choosing the lesser of two evils.
Comment by Little Egypt Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 2:58 pm
Brady has the edge right now because the Democrats control much of everything in politics in Illinois and the recovery isn’t robust. The Democrats are being blamed because they are the incumbents. Brady has the edge because Quinn is talking about raising the state income tax.
Comment by Luke Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:00 pm
Brady has the edge because he is not Quinn.
Everytime Quinn appears in public he takes the chance of adding to Brady’s advantage. The man’s bumbling incompetence is becoming hard to watch and I used to like the guy.
Comment by Garison Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:07 pm
Brady has an edge, but only because all most people know about him is that he’s not Quinn. When people get more familiar with some of his hard-right positions, that will hurt. How much it will hurt I think is directly proportional to how many more bumbles/flips/flops/oops-I-gave-another-raise-but-not for you! Quinn has in the meantime.
November is a long way away.
Comment by TwoFeetThick Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:29 pm
==So the last 8 years at the state level were great? I guess I missed that. Was it in the newspapers?==
Are you saying you don’t think a lot of the state’s problems weren’t brought on by the lack of support from the feds? Remember Grover Norquist wanting to shrink government? They started with state funding.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:30 pm
Brady has the edge. It really isn’t hard to see that.
And Cheryl, it’s time to get over “8 years stuff” already. We’ve had 2 crappy years and I don’t want anymore of it. The Federal Government is just as broke as the states. It’s time for everyone to realize this and have grown-up conversations about the problems we face.
Comment by Logical Thinker Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:35 pm
I hear from a lot of Republicans who don’t trust Brady. He’s got no plan for the budget and he’s never been known as a “my word is my bond” kind of guy to begin with. Plus he’s no Mitch Daniels from Indiana or Chris Christie from New Jersey. Brady is beholden to a lot of the downstate gop county chairmen and a lot of them are state workers. They are the ones who got Brady over the finish line by working to gin up resentment and dislike of all things and people Chicagoland. As the only non-Chicagoland candidate, it worked, just barely. Now the GOP is stuck with the hayseed who has never really taken governing seriously.
My point is, those big Brady backers are hardly anti-tax hike, reduce the size of state government kind of people. In fact they are expecting Brady to restore the good old days of Jim Thompson patronage when Republicans in state government were all fat and happy.
The smart money says a governor Brady goes along with an income tax increase, he’s a one-termer, and then Lisa Madigan becomes governor for much of the rest of our lives.
And thus completes the circle of life.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:37 pm
Quinn for two reasons:
(i) incumbency will not be his downfall, as voters will be so fatigued by the time Nov 2d hits I think more will go with the incumbent; and (ii) Brady continually shows he cannot govern issues to cause that question in the voters’ minds about whether he’s qualified
who knows whether Quinn ever believed he’d reach the mansion, but now that he’s there, I think more Illinoisians will ultimately go with him as they are staring down at that ballot on a cold, rainy morning, no matter what the polling will predict
Comment by 21st State Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:40 pm
Let’s see Brady has run a business wants to run government like a business and Quinn couldn’t run a lemonade stand….Brady!
Comment by KnuckleHead Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:41 pm
It’s Quinn’s to lose. Weak opponent (though getting better, but time is short), blue state, the huge advantage of incumbency-you can be on the news everyday announcing this and that program–for free. Plus, here in Illinois, I don’t see much evidence of that greatly energized Republican base that you read about in the national press. For Brady to win, a lot of those emergized Republicans would have to come out in a midterm and a lot of faithful Dems would have to stay home. I don’t see it happening. Nor are there any compelling third party candidates to draw votes from Quinn.
I hope I’m wrong. State govt needs to go on a diet, and Quinn isn’t the one to do it.
Comment by cassandra Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 3:57 pm
What Garison said. Brady has the edge cause he ain’t Quinn. Doesn’t matter about social issues, it’s the budget, stupid. It ain’t even about Brady. It’t that he ain’t Quinn, he ain’t a democrat. It ain’t even about party, just that Brady ain’t from the same party as Quinn/Blagojevich.
Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 4:00 pm
It’s gotta be Brady, for the same reason that Obama was able to win.
Quinn has a record in the office, and it’s a pathetic and incompetent one.
Barack “Present” Obama had no record of leadership or legislative accomplishment.Mc Cain was too liberal for conservatives and too conservative for liberals.
We painted the picture we wanted to see on Obama’s canvas, and we elected him based on the “hope” that this charismatic character had our best interests as his priority.
Over 18 months we’ve found out differently.
We’re faced with a choice between a pol who we KNOW isn’t up to the job (Quinn) and someone we strongly suspect may not be up to it, and really hasn’t provided much leadership (except on gassing puppies).
We’re doomed!
Comment by PalosParkBob Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 4:10 pm
Brady, only because Quinn’s running.
Comment by jt Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 4:22 pm
Just a quick observation from the comments posted so far…..Bill Brady by a landslide!!!
Comment by Amen Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 4:49 pm
Brady has the edge as long as the “no tax increase” fever persists. If people get wind (maybe in a debate, maybe in ads) that Brady has just about no realistic solutions to the huge budget mess, then the edge will switch to Quinn…especially if they realize their local school district is likely to get hit much harder under Brady than Quinn. Many people (not all) are willing to cough up additional taxes if they see that one candidate appears ready to let state services and public education to wither away. Not having a plan at all will be seen as the very worst form of incompetence. (At least I hope that’s the case.)
Comment by Steve Downstate Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 5:06 pm
Quinn,
only because once the voters start paying attention to Brady’s positions on social issues his numbers will go down. I don’t think Quinn’s numbers could go much lower.
We have two basically unelectable candidates facing one another. One has to win.
It’s regrettable, but that’s a simple fact. One has to win.
One has to win.
Alas………..
Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 5:13 pm
Quinn has the true edge because when october comes and people start to pay attention to the candidates they will see more than Brady’s mantra of no new taxes. Yes, they may agree with him personally that they don;t want taxes, but they will realize they don’t want their money wasted by an incompetent politician.
People will then look at the social issues and see the true side of brady. He is too far on the right on social issues to win this
Comment by chitown Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 6:01 pm
Quinn. Nobody knows Brady. If Quinn makes sure they do, he’ll win.
Quinn starts out with 462.000 primary votes. Brady, 155,000. That’s a lot of ground to make up. Can he do it in the suburbs. I don’t think so.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 8:52 pm
The only difference between Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn is Rod created the playbook, while Pat just stole it and put his name on it! Four years of Quinn will be like 18 months of obamma!!! We are suckers in Illinois, but we are starting to wise up!! I say the people of Illinois elect Brady and we see a return to the Edgar days!
Comment by Really? Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 9:49 pm
“Really”- better check with Edgar before you compare Brady to him- he’s already had less-than- complimentary things to say about Brady…
Think that Quinn will eventually win-think that the “other” candidates will (thankfully)take Brady out. In my dreams, Rich Whitney will actually win the whole thing….
Comment by Downstate Commissioner Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 10:10 pm
wordslinger,
Nice try there buddy. Here are the more relevant numbers:
Dems had 915k votes total in the primary
Reps had 767k votes total in the primary
So we are looking at about a 150k deficit for Brady (instead of the 300k you imply), which is a much better place to start the analysis for projected margins. Now we can start talking about projected turnouts, third party effects, voter enthusiasm and campaign effectiveness.
Traditionally, a 300k Democrat margin cannot be overcome. However, 150k, while an uphill battle, is doable.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Aug 10, 10 @ 10:25 pm
@ PalosParkBob “Barack “Present” Obama had no record of leadership or legislative accomplishment”
PPB, just cuz you ignore Obama’s record doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
–
@ Really? - Brady’s no Edgar, that much is clear.
Comment by G. Willickers Wednesday, Aug 11, 10 @ 3:49 am
G Willickers, what exactly would you call Obama’s defining legislative achievement in the State Senate? In the US Senate? How did that achievement qualify him for POTUS?
Quinn has been a creature of the bureaucracy since the 70s. His “crusade” to get rid of cummulative voting districts pretty much killed any chance of political minority representation and was a major factor in the “imperial” form of legislature we have today.
In hindsight, it was a TERRIBLE move and had a lot to do with the culture of corruption and special interest we have today.
From what I’ve seen, Brady has been relatively impotent as a legislative leader and legislator. What defining legislation, that worked out well for the people of Illinois, has he spearheaded? Why has he been incapable of becoming the Senate Minority leader?
When your own party doesn’t have the faith in you to let you lead, why should the people of Illinois?
Our choice is between an empty suit and a suit filled with mistakes, blunders and political impotence.
I repeat, WE ARE DOOMED!
Comment by PalosParkBob Wednesday, Aug 11, 10 @ 9:54 am