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* Eric Zorn has a pretty good analysis of the reports that the Blagojevich trial jurors asked Judge Zagle what they should do if they can’t agree “on any given count”…
This is a fascinatingly puzzling phrase, if accurately transcribed. If you read “any” as meaning a set that includes all (as in “Glenn Beck and I don’t agree on any issue”), it would suggest that jurors are deadlocked on all counts and that the word “given” is a gratuitous rhetorical flourish; what they meant to ask was what they should do if they “cannot agree on any count,” and “given” was a way of saying “the counts that were given to us by the judge at the conclusion of closing arguments.”
But if you read “any” as meaning “an unspecified item or items from a larger set of items” (as in “just pick any dessert on the menu, they’re all fantastic.”), it would suggest that jurors are deadlocked on just a few of the charges, perhaps even just one. In this translation, the words “any given” work together to underscore the lack of specificity (as in the famous cliche about pro football that “on any given Sunday” an underdog can upset a favorite.
I believe that when the jurors send out a clarifying note later this morning, we’ll find the latter translation is what they had in mind. If they truly were deadlocked on all counts, I doubt they would have indicated this to the judge using a note with gratuitous rhetorical flourishes in it. That note would have read simply, “What do we do if we can’t agree on any of the counts?”
I also believe this is bad news for Rod Blagojevich. A staunch handful of jurors is probably not holding out for convictions on the last few remaining charges after the panel has already voted to acquit on all the other charges. Not after 11 days. Not with that kind of momentum behind “not guilty.” Not without a specific victim crying out (from, say, beyond the grave) for justice. The “well, he’s suffered plenty already, let’s be done with this and go home” sentiment would have prevailed long ago.
Far more likely, it seems to me, is that most or all of the counts that have already been decided against the ex-governor are guilty verdicts, but a minority bloc of jurors is balking either at making it a clean sweep or of convicting Blagojevich’s brother Robert.
Since I tend to believe that Rod Blagojevich is guilty as all get-out, I choose to believe Eric. You?
…Adding… From a friend…
From what we know of that seemingly indecipherable note, the foreman may have a future as a Capitol flak. Not since [George Ryan spokesman] Dennis Culloton has their been such a cryptic message that sent reporters scurrying and yet provided no answers.
* Roundup…
* Zorn: Is it Silvern time?
* Blagojevich jurors: We’re stuck
* Deliberation Day 12. Will we have a conclusion?
* Blagojevich jury is deadlocked
* Blagojevich jury split, turns to judge
* Jury’s note leaves everyone guessing
* Blagojevich jury tells judge they may be deadlocked
* Blagojevich Jury Hanging
* Jurors in the Blagojevich Trial Can’t Agree
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:38 am
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His take is better than most that I have read.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:42 am
My first instinct was that most were guilty verdicts and they were hung up on a few. That verdict sheet is confusing as hell.
Robert may walk.
Comment by John Bambenek Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:42 am
Me too. Take the guilty verdicts. Leave the cannoli.
Comment by And I Approved This Message Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:44 am
My guess is that Rod should get his affairs in order. He’s going to be doing some time.
Comment by Stones Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:45 am
That’s a pretty good view. I’m thinking they voted to convict on the lying, conspiracy, etc. counts but are disagreeing onthe RICO counts. So they may not end up having to deliberate again over whether to take his house.
Comment by ChicagoR Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:45 am
I think they are having trouble with the counts against robert. Its easy to see why they would be more sympathetic toward him.
I listened to all the tapes and it was clear on every one of them, that there was always one sane guy and one crazy guy on the phone.
Robert was not the crazy one.
Comment by Gunner the Runner Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:45 am
I don’t know, I think with the complexity of these charges they might be finding it difficult to get everyone to agree on any of them, as in all of them. If this note is an indication, maybe these aren’t the most competent jurors in the world, lord help us.
Comment by Small Town Liberal Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:46 am
It wouldn’t surprise me if they were hung up on the racketeering charges. Usually jury instructions are pretty complicated (convoluted?) for racketeering.
Comment by Obamarama Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:48 am
I also concluded that the jury meant they had reached unanimity on some counts but not all. I can’t imagine that the counts they agreed on were “not guilties.” Either they are deadlocked on a few of the counts that were a stretch for the prosecution in the first place, they are deadlocked on the counts against Robert or both.
Comment by LouisXIV Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:48 am
I am in agreement with this analysis. I think the jurors are struggling with their verdict as to a few of the counts and are not hopelessly deadlocked about the entire case.
I think that Rod Blagojevich may be following in the footsteps of two former officeholders who once occupied the same positions that he later held, Dan Rostenkowski and George Ryan.
I do not think that the Feds are going to manage a clean sweep on all of the counts charged, but Rod will be convicted and likely end up in Duluth, Oxford or Terra Haute.
Comment by Honest Abe Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:48 am
I think Zorn reads CapFax.
The best case is the one described by Zorn, that the jury has come to agreement on some but not all of the charges. At least this would result in the end of the case since a verdict can be drawn for some, if not all, charges.
The worse case is that a bunch of different jurors disagree on each and every count (e.g. one hold out on Charge 1, 4 hold out on Charge 2…) and that the hold outs are often not the same on each count.
On final case would be that Robert has different findings than Rod.
Anyone think the 11:00 hearing will clear things up? I’m beginning to think no.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:49 am
I think Eric Zorn has nailed it. Good analysis.
I too think Robert will walk.
Comment by Justice Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:50 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a not guilty in there. But not a very high number of them.
Comment by John Bambenek Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:50 am
I suspect Zorn is right. I also don’t think you spend this much time deliberating without coming back with some guilty verdicts.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:51 am
I too agree with Eric.
I wonder what Robert would say to their mother, who suggested that he an Rod work together so that they could bond and strenghten their relationsship?
Comment by South of I-80 Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:51 am
They are hung on Rod, I also think the attorneys know that. That is why Rob was so subdued and Rob was reported as smiling when he left court.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:52 am
It will all be clear by noontime.
Comment by Tom Joad Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:53 am
There’s a big difference in believing the man to be guilty and the prosecution making the case that he’s guilty. Perhaps this is with what the jury struggles.
Having said that, they are likely hung on Robert’s status and anything beyond the conspiracy charges.
Comment by Fan of the Game Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:53 am
It’s hard to argue with anything Eric Zorn said. Judge Zagel would have gotten a conflictual vibe from the jury if they couldn’t reach a verdict on all counts. I’d say the odds of Blago being found not guilty all counts is less than 5%, if that. Prediction: Blago guility on at least 7 counts.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:58 am
I mean they are hung on Rob, they have verdicts on Rod and they are not good for Rod..
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:58 am
Can’t imagine they’re deadlocked on the ‘lying to the Feds’ charge…I mean, that one was as clear-cut as it gets, as I remember.
As for the rest…someone said it yesterday, there appears to be at least a cadre of jurors who want to convict on some (all?) charges, so I’m not as frightened of a not-guilty sweep as I was.
I’ve said all along, he’ll get off on several counts but not all of them. Then again, I also said 3 weeks for the verdict (though I guess I’m not all THAT far off there).
Comment by Concerned Observer Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:59 am
One Man, did you mean to say “they are hung on ROB (Robert)” and “that is why ROD was so subdued and ROB(ert) was smiling”? Sheesh this case is confusing
Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 9:59 am
To me, the “any given charge” points to “We all think he is guilty, but we cannot agree on the charge.” I hope this isn’t the case, but it would pose a serious challenge to the jury.
Should they pick a couple of charges and agree to convict on those so they can end this, or must they actually have unanimity?
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:01 am
Does anyone think that Rod will get time off for good behavior?
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:02 am
Yes SS…
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:02 am
Capt Fax
1. Eric Zorn gives most people a headache
2. before you trash capitol flaks remember you are trying to report was is being provided by those skillful court house scribes who cannot seem to agree on the partial note read by the judge.
the note itself may be pristine
Comment by Reddbyrd Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:02 am
$10.00 says that if he is acquitted and Rob goes down, Rod still jumps for joy! Any takers?
Comment by the Patriot Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:04 am
isn’t Zorn lucky that he is paid to wonder? has anyone
ever been around attorneys waiting out a jury? there’s all
sorts of guessing, and drinking, and asking who has
heard what outside the jury room. and frayed nerves.
that fraying was certainly evident on Terry Sullivan, intereviewed
on WGN and practically screaming “and maybe we’ll find
out what the heck the jury is thinking.” Terry was both
a state and federal prosecutor so he’s seen both sides
of the sweating it out street, the state work horses,
and the fed sweet beat horses.
by the math, there are 24 counts out on GRod and 4 out
on Robert. more chances to find GRod guilty on something.
for those who want him guilty, the numbers look pretty
good for that. any win is win.
i’m in a much better mood after the Danks performance
last night, though I hate the Twins more than ever with
the double plunk of CQ. Twinkies, you will pay somehow….
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:06 am
Pot, we’ll find out later, but I just don’t think that’s what they’re saying. I think the foreman was doing his best to not give away any suggestion of what count(s?) they’re having trouble with.
Jurors said they were divided on counts involving “a specific act”. Makes me think only a few of the counts are affected, and not all.
But I could just be a ‘glass half-full’ guy in this circumstance.
Speaking of…I perceived gleefulness in the tweets from Roe and Roeper yesterday as things were unfolding. I also perceived that gleefulness to be despicable. But I guess Blago is a colleague, eh?
Comment by Concerned Observer Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:08 am
He won’t get off for good time since he is out of jail right now.Good time only counts when you are physically in a jail
Comment by Publius Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:08 am
Good grief, are we really putting this much thought into this?!?
How about we wait a day or two and see what happens? That’s all it will take.
Nothing more dangerous than an idle media outlet…
Comment by Leroy Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:12 am
One thing that has been suggested, there was more in the note than what was read out loud. Why else did Robert and his lawyer react differently than the others? Rod is going down, I always felt he wouldn’t be convicted on all counts, but most of them.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:15 am
I love the confusion and interpretive gymnastics that “the note” is causing everybody to go through. It should be a good reminder to us all–journalists, lawyers, and lowly blog commenters alike–how easy it is for ones words to be misunderstood or misinterpreted in multiple ways by the reader/listener/observer. And how much entirely unintentional mystery, grief, umbrage, hurt feelings, etc. that can cause.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:17 am
Here’s my prediction; Rob’s charges are the ones giving the most grieve to the jury. Rod will be found guilty on at least some of charges or more.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:20 am
- Publius - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:08 am:
“He won’t get off for good time since he is out of jail right now.Good time only counts when you are physically in a jail”
I was thinking more along the lines of if it is even possible…
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:20 am
Cincinnatus - Rod will get the same 15% off as every federal inmate (assuming good behavior) so long as the sentence is over 1 year.
Comment by Edison Parker Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:24 am
“Nothing more dangerous than an idle media outlet…”
I agree. If the jury were deadlocked on all counts they would have said so. Trying to decipher a clearly ambiguous note is pointless but idle hands are the devil’s workshop.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:25 am
I forgot, as far as your question, I would go with Eric Zorn’s position, he hasn’t been wrong so far concerning this trial.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:27 am
As much as I don’t agree with Zorn on many things I agree that he has applied good logic to interpreting the juror note/tea leaves. I don’t agree with the idea that this is evidence of jury/juror incompetence. Diligence should not be mistaken for lack of competence. I heard that the Judge commented on the lack of loud argumentative noises coming from the jury room. It sounds like the Judge has a better opinion of the jury than others.
Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:28 am
@Cincinnatus — It would be wrong not to.
Comment by Eric Zorn Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:29 am
I think you are all reading this wrong. I believe that they have been unable to find him guilty on any charges. They will come in with a hung jury on all counts!
Comment by Nieva Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:31 am
–…but idle hands are the devil’s workshop.–
And mama says a pistol is the devil’s right hand.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:34 am
- Eric Zorn - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:29 am:
“@Cincinnatus — It would be wrong not to.”
HA! Glad you’re aboard. You sure can get a cross section of opinions here, and tons of good information, too.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:34 am
==Good grief, are we really putting this much thought into this?!?==
We’re in the dog days of summer! What else is there to do? 100 yrs ago, we’d be under a tree in the courthouse square doing the same thing.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:36 am
Nieva — This is why I think you are wrong.
If they were that deadlocked they would have had more communication with the judge either side of the argument (guilty or not) would have asked for transcripts or had questions for the judge in order to try and convince.
If it was one holdout juror there would have been a message about a juror failing to deliberate.
I think they started with Rod and are now working on Rob and that’s the issue.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:39 am
“We’re in the dog days of summer! What else is there to do? 100 yrs ago, we’d be under a tree in the courthouse square doing the same thing.”
I was thinking the same thing. What would Rich’s role be 100 years ago? We’ll find out soon enough but I still think Rob is the one they are deadlocked on
Comment by Publius Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:45 am
Publius - Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:45 am:
“I was thinking the same thing. What would Rich’s role be 100 years ago?”
Click
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:48 am
I had the same thought Leroy, but the truth is, a whole bunch of people seem to be *enjoying* this cryptic missive. So hey, let them have their fun. We’ll find out soon enough who speaks jury the best.
Comment by ZC Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:48 am
Question of the day: Complete this song lyric:
“On the 12th day of Fitzmas the jury gave to me…”
Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 10:55 am
Poor Bill must be curled up in the fetal position somewhere. This must be killing him. Lol.
Enough of the navel gazing. This isn’t Camp Dirksen. We’ll all know soon enough.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:00 am
Let’s move the morning hearing conversation to a new post, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 12, 10 @ 11:00 am