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* Public Policy Polling took a look at the generic congressional ballot in Illinois…
If the election for Congress was today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
46% Democrat
40% Republican
14% Undecided
Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains…
In Illinois Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot by a 46-40 margin. That may not be terribly reassuring though given how much the party runs up the score in a small number of districts. Six of Illinois’ districts voted for President Obama at a 70% rate or higher in 2008.
…the 6 point generic ballot lead for Democrats in Illinois exceeds the 2 point lead we found for Alexi Giannoulias. That may give you a better idea of the shape Democrats would be in that race if they’d chosen a nominee with less baggage.
What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble.
* Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz…
“The Halvorson camp is talking with Julie Merz about taking over as campaign manager, Vanderbilt said. Merz’s resume includes being campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), both of whom are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats committed to fiscal responsibility and government accountability. She also worked on former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley’s (D-N.J.) presidential campaign in 2000.”
They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.
Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.
40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.
The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.
The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely.
* And…
In Illinois Durbin is the favorite politician of 41% of voters in the state, followed by Pat Quinn at 10%, and Roland Burris at 6%. Like Pennsylvania the lack of Republicans in major offices in Illinois leaves 42% of voters saying no opinion. Durbin’s tops among Democrats, 60-11 over Quinn, independents, 40-8 over Quinn, and Republicans, 17-12 over Quinn.
* Campaign roundup…
* Obama unlikely to sway many voters in Senate race, poll shows
* Daily Herald: Hitting the campaign trail head-on
* Retired generals disappointed over Kirk’s no-show at meeting
* Senate, governor candidates to speak in B-N
* Quinn says tax hike plan honest, if not popular, and will preserve schools
* Quinn Campaign Wants 7 Debates With GOP’s Brady
* Pantagraph: Brady, others need to give voters specifics
* Why Did SEIU Give $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association?
* Chamber Backs Kinzinger Over Incumbent Halvorson In Illinois
* Rose: The cutback cuts back
* State owes $2.2 billion to feds for unemployment benefits
* ACLU sues to block law making it illegal to record cops
* ACLU challenges Illinois eavesdropping act
* New health insurance plan for the uninsured launches in Illinois
* Illinois to enroll uninsured in new high-risk pool
* State, feds moving to require cleanup of Chicago River for recreation
* Madigan: $12.7 mil. netted in gas tax investigation
* Madigan Charges 6 Gas Station Owners With Tax Evasion
* Appraisals find Thomson Prison worth nearly $220 mil.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:02 pm
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the 11th is the bellweather for Illinois. Socially conservative Dems, large union presence, rural areas-straight to the heart of the culture wars and economic disparity in the country that are the large bloc of white voters that Charlie Cook and others have identified are the voters Dems need to win to be successful on a national level.
If the Republicants can win here, its going to be a very long night for Dems.
Comment by some former legislative intern Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:19 pm
So Quinn is only 4% more popular than Roland Burris? That doesn’t bode well for November. Expect to see some media clips and campaign ads showing Quinn and Burris together…
Comment by DzNuts Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:34 pm
who are the 6 percent of people in this state that list roland burris as their favorite pol? interesting lisa madigan not on list.
Comment by shore Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:42 pm
==11th is the bellweather for Illinois==
I wouldn’t go that far; it was drawn to be a Republican district for Jerry Weller. If it would be more appropriate to say that if Halvorson can hold it, that’s a good sign for the Dems. If it goes back to the Republicans, the voters are doing what they did in ‘02, ‘04, & ‘06.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:45 pm
==who are the 6 percent of people in this state that list roland burris as their favorite pol?==
Guess the question read, “Who do you prefer? Quinn, Durbin or Burris” and those 6 percent picked Burris because they didn’t like the other two.
Comment by Vote Quimby! Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:58 pm
==who are the 6 percent of people in this state that list roland burris as their favorite pol? interesting lisa madigan not on list. ==
6% of 585 equals 35 people…obviously the sample had a run of numbers that were either his family or friends.
Comment by Anon Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 2:59 pm
Debbie’s district really isn’t a bellwether. That is the problem for her. The District leans Red by 2-3% according to Cook. Halvorson is a sincere true blue liberal Democrat. She doesn’t fit her district regarding the issues. Personality-wise, she is very likeable and hard working, but the current Administration forced her to cast liberal votes without enough time to move towards the political center where she needs to be.
Her new campaign manager should recognize the situation by haveing been a part of Democratic campaigns in solid red territory.
I just don’t believe they have enough time to convince voters that Halvorson can represent these center-right voters. It is a mid-term, and in a mid-term with a 2-3% lean GOP, she can’t expect the level of voter support she received in 2008 with Obama. Halvorson doesn’t have a stereotypical concrete “magnate” businessman as an opponent during an election year when the Market collapses. Even Ozinga was looking quite well right up to the Stock Market crash as an opponent with such a late start. He tanked with the economy in 2008. Halvorson’s image as a pro-government liberal has only grown since then.
So she needed to win in 2010 by moving to the center-right and demonstrating the level of personal best she gives her jobs. She couldn’t do that.
Kinzinger is the real deal. He isn’t making mistakes. As the District returns to it’s GOP roots, what he needed to demonstrate was his viability as a congressional candidate - and he has done that. He has a great personal story, is young and attractive and fits the District politically. He is to the right, but since he hasn’t been subjected to defining votes in Congress or any other political office, has been able to credibly embrace the Center that Halvorson has been unable to occupy.
So, I do see Debbie returning to Illinois in January.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:02 pm
I guess there will be a new engraving on Roland’s tombstone:
“Almost as popular as Pat Quinn, more popular than hemorrhoids.”
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:03 pm
I agree with Pot calling kettle — Dems never really got close to Jerry Weller, even in 2006. Halvorson clearly looks more vulnerable than Bill Foster in the 14th. I think the Dems may need a net change of zero in the IL delegation to keep control of the House. The way to do this would be to pick up Kirk’s seat while losing Halvorson’s.
Comment by 60611 Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:04 pm
My gut is saying that Hare is going to lose too. He is such a complete doofus that although his opponent isn’t as interesting as Kinzinger, he is definately no Halvorson.
If Hare does not get the AA vote out of Decatur and Springfield, he could very well be gone.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:12 pm
VM,
I think you may be right about Hare. I’d throw Foster’s seat into the mix because I believe that the pollsters are still struggling on how to gauge the voter’s anguish and anger, and its effects on turnout for Republicans. At this point, they are taking SWAGS at it.
Personally, from talking to hundreds of voters in the DuPage area, people are far more angry than yet reflected by pollsters. I find Republicans to be HUGELY angry and already in the starting blocks to vote. The Independents are pretty close to the Republicans in anger when you get them talking. Democrats appear dispirited, can you blame them?
In these R+ districts, we will see some surprises, and even in the weak D+ districts like Kirk, voter anger may be greater than we think. Since people really haven’t yet tuned into the election in earnest (another thing we forget as wonks) September polling should be fun to read.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:31 pm
Given the painfully obviuos gerrymandering that went on to make sure the District that Hare represents was a Democrat district, that would be a very bad loss for Democrats.
Comment by Anon Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 3:32 pm
I’m not buying the numbers on the value of Barack’s endorsement.
“Barack endorses” is one thing. Phrased that way, it may not be worth much. He endorses somebody. Who cares?
However, “vote for the other guy, and Barack loses the Senate [or House]” and you are going to get a lot more response from Dems or from self-described independents.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 4:01 pm
Not living anywhere close to the 17th district, I have no opinion on whether he will win or lose, but if Phil Hare loses, the Republicans will be gaining 60+ seats in the House, maybe 70+. As for Foster, my impression has been that his scientist/businessman/outsider image provides a lot of insulation, but he’ll need to keep spending a lot of money to remind voters he’s not a typical politician.
Comment by 60611 Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 4:56 pm
I’m in Foster’s district, and I think he’s going to have problems. He’s a straight policy wonk, and just does not do well with people, in a non-structured environment. In terms of coming out and talking/listening to “We The People”, he just doesn’t appear to have the stones to do it. Just not in him.
Know a number of people who passed on voting for The Milkman last time, but they’re saying that they won’t make the same mistake again.
I just feel, among other things, that Foster “disrespected” us by not being willing to meet and talk with people. He’s lost a lot of potential support, while Hultgren just keeps working, working, working.
If all you want to go is go to D.C. and play policy wonk games (which is what Bill Foster appears to live for), you’re not likely to have a long stay in your congressional seat.
Comment by Judgment Day Is On The Way Friday, Aug 20, 10 @ 4:58 pm
Julie Merz ran the US Senate campaign in 2008 against Senator Roberts of Kansas and got walloped–even in 2008. She now comes from Speaker Pelosi’s office. That’s hardly a committed “blue dog.” Since she also worked for Bill Bradley against Al Gore in 2000 for President, she is seems decidely to the left.
Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Aug 21, 10 @ 10:37 pm
Julie Merz ran the US Senate campaign in 2008 against Senator Roberts of Kansas and got walloped–even in 2008. She now comes from Speaker Pelosi’s office. That’s hardly a committed “blue dog.” Since she also worked for Bill Bradley against Al Gore in 2000 for President, she is seems decidely to the left.
Comment by Morgan Saturday, Aug 21, 10 @ 10:38 pm