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*** UPDATED x4 - Tyrrell wants in - Rasmussen polls Emanuel - Raoul out - Hoffman thinking about it *** Daley retirementpalooza continues unabated

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*** UPDATE 1 *** The editor of the American Spectator, Bob Tyrrell, says he wants to run for mayor. He wouldn’t be your usual Chicago candidate. One of his favorite people is apparently Conrad Black, the guy who stripped the Chicago Sun-Times of its cash and wound up in prison, where he wrote columns for Tyrrell’s magazine.

Meanwhile, a little closer to reality, but not much, Ald. Bob Fioretti has begun collecting petition signatures.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Rasmussen polled Emanuel and Daley statewide

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that just 40% of Likely Voters in President Obama’s home state have a favorable opinion of the man he chose as his White House chief of staff. Forty-six percent (46%) view Emanuel unfavorably, as he considers leaving his job in Washington, DC to run for mayor of Chicago. These findings include 19% who share a Very Favorable opinion of him and 32% who have a Very Unfavorable one. […]

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats in Illinois view Emanuel positively, while 77% of Republicans and 53% of voters not affiliated with either party have a negative impression of him. […]

As for the man he is reportedly interested in replacing, longtime Chicago Democratic Mayor Richard Daley is viewed favorably by 50% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 41%. This includes 23% who have a Very Favorable impression and 22% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Daley’s doing better statewide than in Chicago?

*** UPDATE 3 *** Prudent

State Senator Kwame Raoul, who represents President Barack Obama‘s old legislative district, said Tuesday he is going against the grain and opting not to run for mayor, in part because he doesn’t think he could raise the money needed for a competitive bid. Raoul said last week that he was considering entering the race.

*** UPDATE 4 *** David Hoffman

“I have been getting a lot of requests to run from people, and it is extremely flattering and I am thinking about it,” Hoffman told the Chicago News Cooperative. “But the main thing is whether it is the right time for us. We have a little boy at home who just turned three and having just come off this [U.S. Senate] campaign, there are lots of other things to think about in terms of the race, but things I have been focusing on are personal.” […]

Hoffman said he has not put a deadline on his decision but said he would have to make one “soon.”

[ *** End Of Updates *** ]

* This lede may be way over the top

The Chicago City Council could be in for its biggest turnover in decades — with as many as 20 seats changing hands — thanks to a surge in voter turnout tied to the wide-open mayoral race, alderman and political observers warned Monday.

Why? Just keep reading the story…

Chicago has had 50 aldermen since 1923. Since that time, the biggest Council turnover occurred in 1931, when 24 new aldermen were swept into office, along with a new mayor and city clerk.

Washington was accompanied by 15 new aldermen. In 1991, there were 13 new aldermen. Four years ago, there were five.

Retirements alone will bring in several new aldermen, but 20 new ones? I know lots of people are talking about a huge turnover, but that would be tough to do. Even with a coordinated campaign by labor unions, there was only a fraction of that turnover four years ago. Still, there is a good reason why so many aldermen are nervous about this upcoming mayor’s race. They mostly suck at what they do, and voters know it.

* Meanwhile, state Sen. James Meeks got himself into a spot of trouble this week

As pastor of one of the South Side’s largest congregations, Rev. Meeks believes homosexuality is morally wrong. He says that teaching comes from the Christian Bible and the revealed Word of God. He opposes abortion for the same reason. […]

In a telephone interview, Meeks at first declined to answer questions about his long-standing opposition to abortion and gay rights. “I don’t want to get into divisive issues, or talk about hypotheticals,” he said.

Meeks said abortion is not an issue that would normally be addressed by either the Mayor of Chicago or the City Council. City officials, though, would deal with certain gay rights issues, including how police would treat “hate crimes,” whether to register civil unions and what rights to grant city employees with same-sex partners.

“Now, if I were sitting around bored with nothing to do, that stuff might come up,” Meeks said. “But I expect to be so busy with schools, crime and budget problems during my first term that I wouldn’t have any time.”

The openly-gay State Rep. Harris (D-Chicago) said he was not impressed. “Oh, great. So, our right to basic equality would depend on his whim? That is not acceptable.”

If Meeks makes it into the runoff, the city’s decades-old black/liberal alliance, which pretty much broke during the John/Todd Stroger campaigns and was only temporarily repaired by Barack Obama, will be endangered yet again.

Also, as Progress Illinois notes, the city council does occasionally dip its toes into the abortion issue, like when it passed the abortion clinic bubble zone ordinance.

* A blast from the past reemerges. Carol Moseley-Braun wants to be mayor

Braun, who now owns an organic food company, is currently interested in hearing from the community and believes she needs at least two million dollars in support to run an effective campaign, according to sources. On Sunday, political operative Billy Paige held a meeting with supporters to gauge the feasibility of a campaign.

Braun is already supported by political activist Gloria Steinem.

More

“I think people are prepared to support the most qualified person, without regard to race and gender,” she told me. “My qualifications should win the day.

“Just to show you how things work in life, last month I started having conversations with the people who wanted to buy into the company, and in the middle of that Daley announces.

“I am positioned perfectly to do this. Who would have thought it?”

Braun has already signed up former Channel 5 reporter Renee Ferguson as her spokesperson.

* Maria Pappas is also interested…

Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas said Monday she is thinking about running for mayor.

“Yes, I am considering it,” said Pappas, joining the growing field of might-be candidates in the wake of Mayor Daley’s announcement last week that he won’t seek another term. “I’ve got great countywide, citywide numbers.”

* What Rahm Emanuel’s poll is testing

On Monday, I found Kathy Posner, a Chicago civic leader, who was called by Emanuel’s pollster on Saturday.

She told me the 20-minute survey asked about Emanuel; Ald. Brendan Reilly (42nd); David Hoffman, the former city inspector general who lost a Democratic Senate primary bid; Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart and state Sen. James Meeks.

Posner said there was a query about Daley’s job rating and what city issues are important: jobs, police, etc.

After running through some positives about Emanuel — his congressional career, his work as Obama’s chief of staff — Emanuel tested some potential negatives: his onetime friendship with former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and how Emanuel made millions as an investment banker with City Hall connections. There was also a question about Emanuel and convicted political fixer Tony Rezko.

Ald. Reilly, however, all but took himself out of contention yesterday.

* And Mark Brown has a warning for Tom Dart

But don’t forget: It’s going to be dangerous to be the front-runner in this race.

Just look at how quickly various forces went on the attack against Emanuel. There was muttering about Dart at last week’s City Council meeting, too, but it was more restrained.

If the other contenders gang up on Dart, there’s still no telling who could slide to the front.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:26 am

Comments

  1. It’s all about getting on the ballot and that takes money and feet in some sort of combination.

    Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:34 am

  2. Reilly is out, but Pappas and Braun are in?

    It is a shame that is not reversed.

    Not to digress, but I’m not sure Braun gets how many people are still bitter about working hard for her to get elected the first time, only to have her basically do nothing for six years.

    Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:36 am

  3. Carol Moseley-Braun is the about as incompetent as our fabulous ex-governor. God help Chicago if she becomes mayor.

    Comment by Stooges Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:45 am

  4. I read the Reilly quote, and don’t see where he took himself out.

    Comment by soccermom Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:46 am

  5. “My qualifications should win the day.”

    What kind of organic products has she been using?

    Comment by Lincoln Parker Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:47 am

  6. And then we have Maria Pappas. I had completely forgotten that she exists. She’s best known for doing nothing at all.

    Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 11:51 am

  7. Meeks has an out on gay rights (no pun intended): he’d say the laws have been passed and he’ll enforce them in good faith, and should the state’s law be overturned and the city council pass a gay civil unions/marriage bill, he’ll enforce that as well.

    Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:02 pm

  8. Fioretti is circulating accordingto the Chicago news Coop

    Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:12 pm

  9. If Meeks ran, it’s likely Rick Garcia would demonize him, like he did Glenn Poshard in 1998. Poshard had never led any action that would have hurt gays, but the demonization that started in the primary (and helping Garcia’s candidate, John Schmidt, earn THIRD place, BEHIND an underfunded Roland Burris), and continued into the general.

    So Garcia & gay activists elected Ryan, who didn’t do any major pro-gay activity,and was instead sent to jail.

    And that demonization by certain gay activists set up Gov. Rod’s reign.

    A similar move against Meeks would backfire, angering socially conservative African Americans & immigrants. With a crowded field, where the top 2 will make it to a runoff, someone trying to demonize Meeks will also earn third palce (or lower) while Meeks would make with only 20-25% of the vote.

    As for Meeks’ comments, i think he was saying (perhaps poorly) that he would NOT be setting up a crusade against gays.

    Comment by JP Paulus Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:15 pm

  10. ==“I think people are prepared to support the most qualified person, without regard to race and gender==
    Well, that leaves you out Carol no matter who runs. You were an embarrassment and a joke as a US Senator. How could you handle the much higher office of Mayor of Chicago?

    Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:17 pm

  11. == Braun is already supported by political activist Gloria Steinem. ==

    Wow, now there is a big name in Chicago politics…

    Also I don’t see how Meeks views on GLBT issues really hurts him at all with his base.

    Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:18 pm

  12. Tyrrell is thinking of running?

    Pat Hickey’s hands must be sweaty and I bet his heart skipped a beat. Alan Keyes isn’t available?

    If Vdrolyak runs I imagine Hickey might not even be able to type because of all the excitement. The word “vapors” comes to mind.

    Does “R Emmett’The Clown’ Tyrrell even live in Chicago?

    In some cases people seem to forget that you have to actually live in Chicago or at least be a “resident” of Chicago for one year prior to the election. I’ve seen reports touting candidates who live and are registered in the suburbs.

    Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:33 pm

  13. People outside of Chicago have a more favorable view of Da Mare cuz they don’t live here, and just love visiting all the tourist attractiosns downtown he helped create…I sort of feel like whoever wins the Mayoral is the loser based on the challenges they are to face, sorta like Obama does now in that he has a tough row to hoe…giddyup everyone…

    Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:34 pm

  14. I agree that Poshard was demonized by gay activists. But my understanding is that the problem started when at a meeting to work through the differences, Poshard’s representatives refused to shake hands with the gay activists. How would you react to an insult like that?

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:42 pm

  15. Hmmm, so the political rabble might gang up on Tom Dart, who can make a pretty good case for being the only reformer in the race? Not a bad year to have those sorts of enemies . . .

    Comment by Chgo observer Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:43 pm

  16. Meeks views on GLBT issues won’t necessarily hurt him with his base. But I think it makes him unelectable in Chicago. Too many African-American leaders understand that a coalition with progressives and liberals is necessary to win the Mayor’s office (and frankly to accomplish most anything in this city). As a result they will back a candidate who can win and this will undermine Meek’s base. Meeks will never break out of his fundamentalist christian base and that won’t be enough to win.

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:49 pm

  17. So Garcia & gay activists elected Ryan,

    I am sure they didnt’ help, but I seriously doubt they were a major factor in the general election, and it seems, not much in that primary.

    Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 12:49 pm

  18. == Meeks views on GLBT issues won’t necessarily hurt him with his base. But I think it makes him unelectable in Chicago. ==

    No way, depending on who Meeks ends up in a runoff with. If he keeps talking about vouchers he will do much better with ethnic whites that most folks think. If he makes education us/vs them, the connected and the rest, I think that will work well in the city.

    Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:04 pm

  19. OneMan,

    Do you live in Chicago? It’s not just a matter of how many LGBT voters there are. Progressive lakefront voters have pretty strong feelings about marriage equality. Those comments would be devastating to Meeks in a runoff with that very important constituency.

    Dan Hynes didn’t do a lot of direct mail during the primary, but one constituency he did target was the lakefront voters. A number of those mailers had rainbow flags on them and touted Dan’s position on equality. It was a very smart strategy because the issue resonates.

    The next Mayor will need at least need to be politically tolerable to lakefront progressives. Meeks is not.

    Comment by Wizard of Ozzie Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:27 pm

  20. OneMan,

    do you know any “etnik” whites?

    It’s a rhetorical question.

    Meeks has no chance of doing well with that constituency. It’s also a constituency that is declining in terms of percentage of the city population. Which makes it similar to black voters in that regard.

    There are precincts in Chicago that voted for McCain. Guess where they were? Among the “etniks”.

    I happen to be pro school voucher, but REVEREND Meeks is unelectable in a city wide race. The “etniks” won’t vote for him because of racial issues and particularly his “reverendness” and self regard.

    Your more moderate Chicagoans of all racial groups aren’t going to be enthralled with the right wing morality.

    Now given the potential bizarreness of the coming Mayoral election and the volume of candidates I can picture a scenario where Meeks makes the runoff. I can’t picture a reasonable scenario where he wins the runoff.

    Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:27 pm

  21. The statewide polling is kinda funny since they don’t get to vote. I’m waiting for the poll which asks residents of Indiana who they favor….Seems like the paper could have found a more relevant question!

    Comment by in the know Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:32 pm

  22. Carol Mosley Braun……really? Didn’t her freshness date expire about 10 years ago? She should link up with Jane Byrne and together they would make one completely incompetent candidate.

    With so many competent women out there why do these 2 keep popping up like a bad nitemare? Have some decency, Ms Braun, and fade away. Like, right now.

    Next.

    Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:34 pm

  23. For some unknown reason, the last post (mine) was listed under anonymous. I am not anonymous.

    Comment by dupage dan Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 1:35 pm

  24. It’s been a long time since Black candidates have needed the Lakefront Front liberals to win the mayoral vote. There are now some different dynamics…the gay community is divided between class (see Uptown), so those issues are in play.

    i think the runoff would be Meeks vs. someone white. The white trying to ‘Rick Garcia” Meeks will place 3rd or worse. Unless that candidate goes full force in supporting someone other than Meeks, that negative drive could wane. (Also, if the Black community feels it is being attacked and/or has a significant chance of winning, there will be more votes from the South & West Sides).

    Meeks would have to turn the tolerance debate on the liberals…forcing them to tolerate people they don’t like, or look like hypocrites. It’s possible, but Meeks would need some good advice on that.

    However, Being with Operation PUSH, it would be hard to says that Meeks is against Civil Rights as a whole.

    IrishPirate, a scenario where Meeks could win would be that the Liberal candidate has some kind of scandal where they implode, like how it worked for Barack Obama with Blair Hull AND Jack Ryan.

    I do agree with Wizard of Ozzie & IP that Meeks on the onset would have a significant political enemy with the LGBT community. But if the liberal vote is diffused (i.e. a campaign is waged to say anyone-but-Meeks), then it would hurt the strongest LGBT candidate.

    Objective Dem, What’s the whole story? i agree the Poshard campiagn didn’t do a good job reaching out, but if you’d just been smeared by someone in your own party..it’d be hard to play nice. He should have worked it out, but that negativity cost the Democrats big time. (Again, John Schmidt only got THIRD place..behind Roland Burris, who had no money!) That whole thing with Garcia just killed the Democrats, and opened the door to Gov. Rod.

    Comment by JP Paulus Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:11 pm

  25. Garcia and other Liberals who normally back Dems supported Ryan in ‘98. Consequently, George did better in Chicago than most Republicans, carrying 8 northside wards.

    Comment by Reformer Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:12 pm

  26. == do you know any “etnik” whites? ==

    Yes, yes I do…

    I think you are giving north shore liberals more credit than they deserve. Also they might not mind getting a voucher to send Timmy to private school or at least help cover the cost.

    You can feel I am wrong about this, that’s cool. But again we have never really had a race like this in Chicago.

    Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:17 pm

  27. People seem to think that lakefront people are all liberals who care only about social issues.
    As a lakefront person, I have to say that social issues are not exactly at the top of my list when it comes to qualfications for Mayor. Give me a person who will cut the budget and get rid of corruption and that person gets my vote. I don’t know enough about Meeks to make that determination but some views on social issues sure will not be a major factor in my vote.

    Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:23 pm

  28. “Also they might not mind getting a voucher to send Timmy to private school or at least help cover the cost.”

    Good point. However, at the same time though, if he’s also going to raise our taxes by $20,000 a year, a little voucher is not going to make a difference.

    Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:26 pm

  29. ===That whole thing with Garcia just killed the Democrats, and opened the door to Gov. Rod. ===

    It was way, way more than Garcia. Don’t be silly. George only lost Cook County by 130,000 votes that year. By comparison, Topinka lost Cook by over 500,000 votes.

    Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:28 pm

  30. OneMan,

    it’s not “North Shore” liberals. It’s “lakefront” liberals. The “North Shore” begins north of the city proper.

    I don’t think all lakefront folks are liberals. However, President Obama did get about 85 percent of the vote in many of the lakefront precincts. Perhaps that was a fluke. Oops, John Kerry did roughly the same.

    There are plenty of people on the lakefront who are fiscally conservative. Many of them are libertarian or liberal on social issues. Are fiscal conservatives going to support State Senator Meeks? Are social liberals going to support State Senator Meeks? Nope.

    Meeks only real constituency would be a portion of the black community. He doesn’t have the charisma or appeal of a Harold Washington within or outside the black community. Also remember Mayor Washington was pro gay rights.

    The actual number of gay voters in Chicago is relatively small. The key number is the vastly larger group of people who are NOT going to vote for an anti gay candidate. For Christ’s sake. Meek’s Church runs anti gay Halloween Haunted houses. That ain’t gonna play citywide. It won’t play among a significant percentage of the black community.

    Another thing that the bevy of candidates need to consider is the changing racial and voter demographics of the city. In the 80’s when Harold Washington was Mayor the black percentage of the city population was about 42 percent or so. Now’s it’s likely around 30-31 percent. A huge portion of the black population of Chicago has moved to the suburbs. Those folks are generally the middle class voters that a black candidate could have expected serious support from.

    I’m not naive enough to believe just because we have a White Sox fan in the White House that racial voting is over.

    Could a “black candidate” get elected Mayor. Nope.

    Could a “candidate who happens to be black” get elected Mayor. Yep.

    Meeks will be seen as a “black candidate”. JJJ would be seen as a “black candidate” as would any of his relatives including Tito or Janet if they run. It’s hard to keep track of the potential Jackson Mayoral candidates between wives and brothers.

    Now I believe a Terry Peterson or Kwame Raoul could potentially be seen as a “candidate who happens to be black”. Raoul has said he ain’t runnin’ and I doubt Peterson will.

    So that leaves Meeks, one of the Jacksons to be determined, Carol Mosley Braun and perennial contender Doc Walls.

    Now the hispanic population of Chicago has been increasing. However, because of age and citizenship issues the actual percentage of hispanic voters in the Chicago electorate might be 10 percent.

    Can you say Mayor Dart?

    Right now my guess is that Dart will face off against ? in a runoff and triumphantly march into City Hall followed by a bevy of reporters and cameras. Of course that much media coverage might cause Dart to explode from self importance and joy. If that were to happen the council would have to choose an acting Mayor until an election were held in 2013.

    So try to stay calm, Sheriff Dart.

    Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:59 pm

  31. Let’s not forget the Hispanic / Latino vote here people. Chicago is not just African-Americans and “ethnic whites” and Lakeshore libs. That said, I agree with some of the concerns that Meeks’ appeal may be centered only on the African-American community. If he can’t build bases to other constituency groups (and maybe he can), he can’t win the run-off. Lakeshore libs are just one piece of the puzzle and he doesn’t necessarily need them, but Rich is right that this combo has traditionally been a good one for African-American candidates (Obama, Moseley-Braun, Preckwinkle). If Meeks cannot connect with them, he’s got to build some other bridges, and it’s not clear immediately with whom.

    Comment by ZC Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 2:59 pm

  32. I do agree that a good start for Meeks would be to cancel those Halloween houses this October, or take out the anti-gay content.

    Comment by ZC Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:05 pm

  33. “I have been getting a lot of requests to run from people, and it is extremely flattering and I am thinking about it.”

    - Hoffman

    This politician is in total love with himself. The only one who thinks he can win is his mother. Seriously, this guy is a wack job reformer that has never done anything for the people in his entire life, but use his appointed positions to promote his faltering political career. What a phony!

    Comment by Demo Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:09 pm

  34. Update 5: Regular CapFax Commenter “Skeeter” reports that he has been hearing many calls asking him to consider running for Mayor. Although “Skeeter” remains a fictious entity that exists merely to provide at times witty but unfortuately, unusually banal, comment on political matters, others have noted that since we have had a “flesh and blood mayor” for as long as anybody around here can remember, a “cyber-only mayor” is just the sort of change that people are seeking.
    Skeeter reports that he (she?) is listening to those calls, mulling his (or her?) options and will make the appropriate announcement when the time is right.

    Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:17 pm

  35. Has Bill Daley been eliminated? Might as well keep it in the family…

    Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:22 pm

  36. Bill Daley?

    I think he’s playing Hamlet over the Shakespeare Theater at Navy Pier through the election.

    Now if he could get appointed Mayor he might go for that. I don’t think he has the heart to run.

    To be or not to be……….not to be.

    Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:25 pm

  37. Two factors with winning are money and endorsements/backing. If Meeks gets to a runoff, the bulk of the money will go to his opponent. I also think the bulk of the endorsements will go to his opponent. There are a lot of Chicago politicians who truly believe in equality for gays. There are also a number who understand if they support Meeks, they will be a target in their next election.

    Ultimately, Meeks has crossed a line that is not tolerated in a multi-cultural city. I’m not Muslim, but if someone had a history of making anti-muslim statements I wouldn’t vote for them. I don’t care if they were good at cutting a budget or not. There are countless other examples of bigotry that are not tolerated. Some conservatives may view this as being intolerant and politically correct, but they won’t be elected Mayor of Chicago.

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:37 pm

  38. black percentage of the city population was about 42 percent or so. Now’s it’s likely around 30-3

    But what about the VOTING population of that group? I suspect it’s higher.

    Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:37 pm

  39. == He doesn’t have the charisma or appeal of a Harold Washington within or outside the black community ==

    Wow, yeah you end with with a church with 25,000 members by being dull and boring. I am sorry but IMHO your statement is illogical on it’s face.

    Do you self a favor if you have never done it before watch one of Meeks services on TV and tell me “he doesn’t have the charisma or appeal of a Harold Washington”

    I guess this city should be thankful the wise liberals on the north side are willing to protect everyone from themselves….

    Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 3:49 pm

  40. OneMan,

    If Meeks runs watch him go down in flames. I personally don’t expect him to run as I doubt he could stand the scrutiny. However, if I’m wrong, I look forward to watching the results. Mayor Meeks is slightly more likely that Mayor Blago or Governor Cohen.

    As for his Church I suspect many of his parishoners have suburban addresses. Like his parents who he bought a house for in South Holland.

    As for Meeks charisma wait till he runs and gets hit with an ad using footage of Mayor Washington touting gay rights. Meeks supporters are going to be largely limited to a portion of the black community. Perhaps a significant portion, but nothing WASHINGTON-like.

    If you think white conservatives on the SW or NW sides are going to vote for him over social issues you’re simply wrong. They’d mostly rather vote for a white gay man than a black social conservative. That’s how big an issue race would be in those communities.

    Pat Collins,

    I suspect the potential black percentage of the overall eligible voting population in da city is around 40 percent. Simply because Hispanics ,while making up roughly a third of the city, are largely ineligible to vote because of age and citizenship issues.

    I saw something Greg Hinz wrote at Crain’s the other day pegging the hispanic vote at 10 percent.

    We’ll have to wait for the census numbers to get a better idea of potential voters.

    Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 4:18 pm

  41. Sorry to threadjack but…

    I just have to kind of shake my head at the idea of blaming Rick Garcia and the gay rights issue for Glenn Poshard’s loss in 1998. In terms of the social issues, gay rights were barely on the radar at all in 1998. Gay marriage was barely even a thought back then. Civil unions was like some out there ultra liberal position to take. I know it’s amazing to think back on, but we really have as a society gone light years forward in terms of how we thinks about this issue.

    Now, besides the Combine aligning against him, I do think Poshard lost that year because of social issues hurting him… but it was the social issues of guns and abortion. The Democrats in this state have always been way more liberal on guns and abortion than gay rights. That’s why we don’t have a concealed carry and fought parental consent laws introduced in just about every other state all these years, and yet we didn’t even add sexual orientation to discrimination protections until a couple years ago.

    Now back on the topic at hand, as a white liberal undecided Chicago voter, I had never really considered where Meeks’ church stood on social issues. I also wasn’t planning to cast my vote in this mayoral race on social issues.

    But as a voter I feel so insulted and find Meeks so disingenuous to pretend like social issues have no role in the mayor’s office ESPECIALLY when thanks to Daley managing to ensure the mayor’s office has its hand in everything the mayor will run our schools.

    So can Meeks tell me where he is at on sex education? Knowing his stance on abortion, can someone tell me whether he only supports abstinence education in Chicago schools?

    And would Meeks oppose things like another Gay Games in Chicago? What if another proposal to create an all-gay Chicago high school came up in the Chicago schools?

    Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 5:19 pm

  42. That wasn’t a threadjack. It was a pretty accurate and certainly righteous rant. lol

    Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 5:28 pm

  43. Dart is the frontrunner and as a Latino this is not good news for our community. Dart has neglected to have his department become diverse and reflective of the constituents of cook county. His track record shows me that Latinos need not apply for city jobs or contracts once he is annointed as the mayor. Less than 6% of his staff is made up by Latinos in a county where the Latino population is hovering around 27%…

    Comment by Check the record... Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 9:01 pm

  44. Rev. Meeks does have a certain type of “charisma” much like a lot of televangelists. It plays to a certain type of person, but it won’t break out into the mainstream. And it will turn off the vast majority of potential voters.

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 9:09 pm

  45. Check the record,

    I don’t know the percentages of Dart employees who are Latino but I have a couple of other points that mitigate the issue.

    I did a quick check and the percentage of Latinos is closer to 23%.

    The way the census works if a person is Latino and white or Latino and Black they get counted as Latino. That increases the percentage of Latinos, even though many don’t think of themselves as Latinos.

    The Latino population tends to be young. A disproportionate percentage of Latinos are not in the workforce and should be counted.

    A significant portion of the Latino population does not have legal status for working and therefore should not be counted.

    The Latino population has grown rapidly through the years. You (hopefully) cannot expect government agencies to fire existing employees to reflect the changing demographic.

    Yes there likely should be more Latinos in the Sheriff’s office, but it is incorrect to imply it should be 27%.

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 9:21 pm

  46. A Sun Times article from 2006 described Rev. Meeks haunted house. “A fenced-in cell housed a few denizens of “hell,” including a pedophile trolling the Internet for a young victim, a meditating Buddhist, and two mincing young men wearing body glitter who were supposed to be homosexuals.” If Budhists are in hell, what do you think Meeks thinks about Jews, Mormons, Muslims, Atheists, etc? Here is one clue, a quick Internet search provided a quote that he blamed “Hollywood Jews for bringing us [the 2005 film] Brokeback Mountain.”

    Another quote i found quoted him as saying “If I do run and there are two people in the race who both are not standing for morality, if I don’t have every white Christian vote in the state of Illinois, I will stand on top of the Sears Tower and call every one of y’all racist.” So if you don’t agree with his brand of fundamentalist Christianity you are racist. That is real sophisticated thinking.

    People currently don’t understand the extent of Rev. Meeks bigotry. When they do, he will won’t have a chance as Mayor.

    Comment by Objective Dem Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 9:44 pm

  47. I’d love to see Pappas defend hiring Todd Stroger’s former Chief of Staff (Joe Fratto) as her new Chief of Staff. Talk about leading the County into the cellar. How many more Stroger cronies has Pappas hired? And she calls herself a reformer and wants to be Mayor. Just another Daley Puppet. What a joke.

    Comment by anon Tuesday, Sep 14, 10 @ 10:32 pm

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