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* From Politico. On the one hand…
The wide open Chicago mayor’s race could have some unintended consequences for the Illinois Senate contest — most of them negative for Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias. […]
“The Chicago media is wall-to-wall mayor’s race,” said Thomas Bowen, a Chicago Democratic operative. “It’s like a solar eclipse that is blacking out opportunities for free media up and especially down the ballot.” […]
The front-page citywide race could also have a deleterious effect on fundraising for Giannoulias, who reported having just a quarter of Kirk’s $4 million bank account at the end of June. That’s no small concern, because Chicago is one of the most expensive media markets in the country, and now Giannoulias will have to compete for funds with the myriad candidates assembling campaigns for mayor before the Nov. 22 filing deadline — less than three weeks after the general election.
On the other hand…
Some Democrats argue that the mayor’s race won’t have much impact on Giannoulias’s ability to raise cash, because he has already scoured his hometown — typically, the first place candidates for office go to raise money — and has moved on to a national donor network. […]
“There are going to be a lot of people who want to demonstrate [get out the vote], whether or not they give a crap about this midterm election,” said John Michael Gonzalez, a Democratic strategist from Illinois. “I don’t know how that can help Kirk. I do know how it can help Alexi.”
* The Question: Which hand is right? Does the focus on Daley’s retirement hurt Giannoulias or help him? Explain. And if you think it’s somewhere in between, then tell us which way the argument tips and why.
And let’s just stick to the Kirk-Giannoulias contest, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:08 am
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Have to believe it benefits Kirk. It takes away some of the news hole available for classic PR and takes away some funds that might have been available for AG at the end of the race. As far as the argument for national dollars, for every dollar that AG is pulling nationally, so is Kirk. In, what many are calling, the top Senate race in the nation, it is foolish to think that both parties aren’t throwing every dollar in that they can muster.
Comment by A.B. Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:11 am
Helps Kirk - Daley is off promoting increased trade with China helping to mute the China is bad argument Alexi has been trying to make. The mayor’s race gives people who have been avoiding giving Alexi money another excuse for not donating. And knowing there is a big dem election coming up after the first of the year may help to ease the conscience of those Chicago dems leaning toward sitting out November’s election.
Comment by 10th Indy Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:20 am
I think Bowen is right, that the mayoral speculation makes free media tougher to come by for Giannoulias and Kirk. But that may not be the worst thing in the world for Alexi. Since he’s managed to keep the race close thus far, Kirk will have to pay big money to change the narrative in his favor. Alexi can devote his few remaining dollars to closing on TV with his jobs, jobs, jobs message and maybe a few “Kirk lied us into Iraq” and “Kirk spent us into oblivion” ads.
Meanwhile, here in Cook County, the ward organizations are waking up from a long slumber, trying to get in shape for the mayoral election and saving Joe Berrios’ bacon. For the first time in a very long time, the Regulars will be going all out in the precincts, not simply mailing it in like usual. And that will help Giannoulias tremendously.
Just think of how much “street money” Alexi will save by letting Berrios and the Jackson clan worry about GOTV in November. A rising tide in Cook County lifts all Dem boats.
This is positive both ways for Alexi.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:21 am
Rich,
I made this exact negative impact on Alexi case earlier this week. Money, time, oxygen, campaign workers and enthusiasm are being sucked out of Alexi’s campaign because of Daley’s announcement.
Earlier this year, I said that the Alexi/Kirk race would be tight until election day, or unless an event occurred that changed the dynamics. At that time, I was thinking in the realm of a revelation about a candidate, a major slip-up, or some other such event. I thought, and still think that if something along these lines occur, we would see it in polling data after the event.
This Daley think and its effects on Alexi may be something that skews a couple of points on election day and will not show up in pre-election polling. I think Daley damaged Alexi’s hope for election.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:22 am
I think it’s a marginal net gain for Alexi.
Ultimately money is a threshold issue, not an absolute issue. As long as Alexi has a few million to get on-air, it may be enough. The fact that Quinn is floundering makes any remaining Democratic passion shift over to Alexi. He’s their last best hope to muster some type of “win” out of this cycle.
The mayoral race will get every Dem-leaning organization in Chicago using this fall to posture for the 2011 races. Groups that can point to putting Alexi over the top (and by over the top I mean just astoundingly lopsided margins/massive GOTV numbers to compensate for DuPage/Downstate) in their ward/neighborhood, etc. will be courted more heavily and have more clout when it comes to the mayoral race.
Comment by John Galt Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:23 am
I am skeptical of both premises. This is the end of week seven; the effectiveness of any earned media is going to be minimal, particularly in a race that has already dragged on this long. I also question whether Alexi was on the cusp of a big wave of money pre-Daley announcement.
On the other hand, what’s the counter? A lot of people are going to burn a chunk of their presumed $2-5 million mayoral budget in November on someone else’s campaign to do…what? Get a merit badget? And even so, let’s keep this in perspective. 2006 turnout was 49.25 percent in Chicago. What exactly is the expected increase in turnout from this big GOTV demonstration?
Comment by Dirt Digger Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:27 am
Well, I would agree that Alexi would have scoured most of his Chicago contacts for the full-term race a long time ago. However, what about the 10 week completion of Obama’s term? Alexia and Kirk are allowed to double-up thanks to the Judge’s decision. Was Alexi able to touch all of his key supporters for another contribution before this news hit, or were there still a sizable number who hadn’t written that second check? That would seem to be the greater potential financial hit.
As for the news coverage, I think it’s largely a wash, but more of a negative for Alexi. If Chicago voters get too distracted by the mayoral contest, they may forget about the November election. It sounds silly, but it could happen, especially if mayoral candidates start cramming signs everywhere saying “Vote for Me in February!” Alexi will need Chicago to come in hard for him to have a chance, and if confusion by the mayoral election reduces Chicago turnout even by 1-5%, Alexi’s slim chances will become more remote.
Comment by South Side Mike Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:29 am
It hurts Alexi indirectly. This is because all the highly publicized scrambling of many Democratic also-rans, has-beens, mediocraties, and baiters, (along with their silly quotes) serves to remind voters in the metro area the kind of party and politics Alexi represents to voters in the senate race.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:30 am
At this point in the game, the only stories left to be written on these two flawed candidates are negative ones so a lack of free media in the Senate race is probably a good thing for both Kirk and Alexi. Fundraising, I don’t see how it affects that much because locally anyone who was going to donate to either Kirk or Alexi already has got their max contributions in.
The way this mayoral race changes Nov. 2 is turnout. How it will change it, I’m not sure, but I think turnout will be affected to the benefit or detriment of Alexi.
Will Chicago’s political class not bother to work as hard to turn people out for the Nov. 2 elections because they are focusing their work on mayoral candidates?
Will the increased activity around the Chicago mayor’s race result in more activity around Nov. 2 because that will be a big day to market your preferred mayoral candidate to voters and show your strength?
Will a lot of Chicago voters get confused about the different elections and the excitement about the mayor’s race lead to a greater turn out to the polls on Nov. 2 with folks thinking that’s when they decide Daley’s replacement? I could see this happening actually.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:30 am
Helps Kirk.
1. Petitions will be passed from now until the middle of November. With everyone and their brother (or wife in the case JJJ) running, that is a lot of foot soldiers out of commission.
2. If Rahm gets in, labor is going to have a coronary. The Mayor has control of more jobs, so the Senate will take a back seat.
3. Alexi has had weak fundraising numbers. More cooks in the kitchen only reduces the resource pool.
Comment by Joe McCarthy and the Red Scarecrows Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:32 am
Probably a small (but in this race potentially significant) gain for Kirk. Only because with Kirk’s monetary advantage, Alexi is much more dependent on earned media. As the Chicago media gets consumed by every little detail of the Mayoral election, Kirk’s financial advantage will give him the ability to more effectively control the messaging war since he (assuming he has an equally competent media buyer) could achieve a significantly greater impact on the voters consciousness. Furthermore, the DSCC may not be able to match the NRSC in funds as they are defending a number of other races in extremely expensive states (CA, CT, & PA spring to mind).
Comment by JCIII Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:34 am
Helps Alexi. I’m hearing people now putting a lot of pressure on organizations to put up big turnout numbers in November. Two reasons:
1. As a tune up for their own aldermanic races (a lot of alderman are also committeemen); and
2. Whoever puts up big numbers in November is going to be courted in February. The organizations have gone from taking it sort of seriously to making it a huge deal. Everybody is looking to impress with turnout.
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:42 am
I imagine Alexi tapped all the money he could have out of Chicago long ago. The hay’s in the barn, unfortunately for him when it comes to money.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:43 am
Voters have already decided whom they are voting for regarding the Senate race. The Mayor’s race is the new unknown. Giannoulias is behind and the window of opportunity he needs is closing.
The donor base has already accepted Kirk as Senator. No more for Alexi. Giannoulias will have to present polls showing him ahead to get any more money.Those are not coming.
Free media has already decided on this race as well. They are ready for the new Mayor. So there is no free media for Alexi either.
There are no national donors for Giannoulias either. Feingold has the last of the cash coming to him because of his legacy and ties. There are too many incumbents losing with legacy and ties to donor asking for more cash this year. A Democratic newby behind in the polls isn’t getting squat.
The triage within the Senate among Democrats is focused on keeping 50 seats. With Delaware going to the Democrats they are willing to let Illinois go.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 11:57 am
Unequivocal benefit to Kirk.
Be honest folks. Literally hundreds of top city operatives are now spending their time deciding which bandwagon to climb on. They are making deals, forming alliances, etc. There is absolutely nothing of value for them in the November election. Alexi has no jobs, Quinn’s jobs are already filled.
This idea that some potential candidates will be looking to boost turnout in November to prove they have the chops to win the mayor’s race is ridiculous. Now it is about making alliances and raising money.
It diverts attention from November in a big way and that hurts Alexi. No question about it.
Comment by Adam Smith Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Agree with 47th Ward. For the first time in a generation, Chicagoans will have a chance to use their vote to influence who is elected the next mayor rather than to vote for the only game in town. With almost as many candidates as voters, turnout should be good and, regardless of who Chicagoans vote for in the mayoral race, most will cast a vote for Alexi since they are in the booth anyway.
Comment by SAP Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:08 pm
SAP, the election dates for Mayor and Senator are months apart.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:15 pm
Big help to Alexi. 1) the Chicago money is already in the door, 2) the turnout thing is going to be a big deal
Comment by The Captain Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:24 pm
Rich, shouldn’t somebody — Politico or you — point out that Bowen was Giannoulias’s campaign manager in the primary and was let go afterward? And that he’s running Claypool’s campaign? He’s not exactly unbiased on the topic of the Senate race.
Comment by Anon Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:31 pm
In a small way this could help out Alexi, It should make for a bigger vote coming out of the City, SAP just made my case..there is going to be a lot of air on the mayors race, and many voter will not know when they vote on mayor, thinking it is Nov 2nd…in the short term it can help Kirk, but very short term.
Comment by VoterUSA Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:32 pm
“SAP, the election dates for Mayor and Senator are months apart.”
Nonetheless, Chicago voters WILL BE CONFUSED and some voters will go to the polls Nov. 2 just to cast a vote for mayor, even though they can’t.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:36 pm
First of all, Anon, Tom wasn’t “let go afterward.” And he didn’t say anything overtly pro Alexi, either. So, relax.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:36 pm
And on this note, the DSCC is set to start a new buy in Chicago on the 20th.
http://twitter.com/Smart_MediaGRP
Comment by JCIII Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:47 pm
I think the money issue is less a factor in the Senate race, simply because of the limit of how much a person can donate in the race. As a result, I suspect that Giannoulias has reached that limit with many donors in the Chicago area, and he would need to seek funds elsewhere in any event.
Comment by fedup dem Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:59 pm
It will probably have small negative effect on Alexi G. but given how close this race it is possible that could be enough to end chance he has of winning.
Comment by RMW Stanford Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Local politics won’t impact the Kirk-Alexi race. This is an open seat and the money will put in on a national basis .. the mayoral race only hurts Quinn, since he’s the incumbant with no money and relies on local Chicago media. Voters are smarter and don’t necessarily vote straight ticket anymore. I can see a lot of split ticket voting this time around …
Comment by good rep. Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:26 pm
Turnout in Chicago will be lower as everyone will be scrambling for petition signatures for the mayoral race. If they have written off Quinn and are looking towards the April elections, then Alexi can’t possibly be helped by that scenario.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:31 pm
i love how st. kirk’s supporters think this will help the water walker. suddenly, you have a lot of organizations and other candidates interested in a high turnout on election day in chicago. why? because just about every candidate will have people circulating petitions at polling places, especially the machine pols. so they have a vested interest in getting people to the polls. it seems to me that chicago political types are suddenly more interested in helping gotv (at least, that’s my *direct* experience) this week. not that i’m surprised.
the other thing that will drive a higher turnout is that it seems to me that no one will be slated by the chicago democrats, which makes the ward organizations all the more powerful — IF they can prove that they got juice. since no one is really packing away tons of dough, it’s boots on the ground that will prove their worth. that’s why democrats weight committeemen’s vote.
it’s really hard to see how that helps kirk. unless, of course, he’s importing republican lobbyists from d.c. i haven’t heard of anyone coming in, yet, although i suspect that decision won’t be made for a few weeks, but if kirk got 1000 highly experienced gotv specialists, then it would definitely offset the chicago turnout.
but kirk’s the odd-man out this year, the only moderate in the nation running on the republican side for the senate. given how the tea party turned on mike castle, a much more attractive candidate than kirk, it’s increasingly difficult to see how kirk appeals to the purists in illinois.
that is, without sarah palin’s endorsement…
Comment by bored now Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:38 pm
All the place holders are scrambling for a spot because the 800 pound gorilla checking out has changed the rules of the game. What’s in it for me, how do I preserve what I got, and here is your marching orders, kid, if you want to be a player. Kind like 10 people eyeballing the remaining 5 chairs. Trouble is most of the non-politician population simply could care less, figuring it’s all mind numbing posturing and nothing really changes in the end. Most already know if they will even bother to vote (low turn out likely) and more commercials will not change their mind. Alexi has the money he needs or can simply cough up more. Kirk just rides the flow and keeps the stupid statements minimal.
Comment by zatoichi Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:11 pm
Louis,
Election day is a great day to get signatures for February. Signatures sure will not be a distraction from turnout. If anything, the message will be “turn out to vote, and make sure to see the guy just outside and sign the petition.”
Comment by Skeeter Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:16 pm
mostly I think it does not matter, maybe a bit to the Kirk side.
there’s not a lot of jobs in a Senate office, so the incentive for
the about to be whacked Daley people is really not there to
go pitch in and try for a job with Alexi.
Comment by Amalia Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:27 pm
Cincy: Mea Culpa. I’m switching my vote to whoever had the lead (in this case Kirk) has the most to gain from Daley sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
Comment by SAP Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:34 pm
As far as Giannoulias is concerned, this neither helps or hurts him in a significant way. Less money, perhaps, but possibly more Democrats turning out to vote. Kirk seeems to have the edge, anyway, and will have more ads before the election. It really depends on how much help Alexi gets from D.C. Democrats.
Comment by Wensicia Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:39 pm