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* The people working with the Democrats’ coordinated campaign have been saying for weeks that they hope to convince people who didn’t vote in 2006, but voted in 2008 for Barack Obama to come out on November 2nd. The coordinated campaign has a staffer overseeing this effort.
SEIU is apparently taking the lead. From Progress Illinois…
According to [Jerry Morrison, the political director of SEIU’s state council], there are around 875,000 voters in Cook County who voted in the 2008 presidential contest but not in the 2006 governor’s election; many, but not all, are newly registered voters. SEIU will target about 500,000 of them, beginning with a $1 million advertising blitz it will roll out in a couple of weeks. The goal is increasing the likelihood that at least 100,000 of those folks head to the polls.
Off-year elections are tough. Lots of folks just don’t vote unless the presidency is on the ballot. The union has commissioned a poll to see what will motivate this targeted audience. Most plan on sitting out the election…
However, 41 percent of respondents told BNP that three messages made it “extremely likely” they would vote: One focused on Republicans attacking Obama and possibly trying to repeal the 14th Amendment, which guarantees all citizens equal legal protections. Another ties Obama with other Democratic candidates, saying Obama and the Democrats want to restore the economy and clean up the mess President George Bush left behind. The last focuses on “Sarah Palin and the Tea Party crowd” wanting Democrats to stay home on Election Day.
References to the ex-Alaska governor and the Republicans proved the most motivating, according to the memo, trumping issues like crime, state budget cuts, or student loan issues. “Two of the three top testing messages also have to do with Republicans, including Sarah Palin, taking the country backwards,” a summation of the poll reads. “The best motivating messages are dominated by evoking negative images of what could happen, more from an ideological perspective than one focused on issues.”
“It is a very partisan message, which is that Sarah Palin and the Republican Party want to take power so they can stop the Obama agenda,” Morrison said. Final decisions about the messaging strategy are still being made.
The union won’t do phone-banking or direct mail, but it’s planning to buy ads on websites, place banners on buses and trains and in the Trib’s Red Eye. It will also use mass text messages…
The point is to deploy the message where the Obama voters actually are. Fifty-six percent of respondents in BNP’s poll reported sending a text message every day, 42 percent search Google every day, and 30 percent use Facebook every day (all the rates are higher for weekly usage). Nearly one in four respondents rides a CTA bus at least once a week while almost one in five rides the train weekly. Just 15 percent reported getting most of their news by reading a local newspaper. Thirty-one percent said they got their news from local television broadcasts.
Thoughts?
*** UPDATE 1 *** Republican consultant Smart Media Group just claimed on Twitter that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has “just placed a broadcast buy in Chicago to start on 9/20.” We’ll see soon enough.
*** UPDATE 2 *** CQPolitics has the buy amount. Smallish…
The DSCC placed a quarter million dollar independent expenditure broadcast buy in the Chicago media market on Friday, according to a Republican source who tracks Democratic ad buys. […]
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has yet to spend any IE money on the race, but it has announced plans to move $3.4 million to Kirk in the form of coordinated funds. Unlike independent expenditures, coordinated funds are limited and $3.4 million is the maximum that the Senate committees can spend in Illinois this cycle.
* More stuff…
* Huntley: Tea Party unsettles regular GOP, too
* Conservative rally has elements of old-time politics
* Brady bringing NJ Gov. Chris Christie to Springfield for rally
* Simon, Kelly to be at forum today
* Rutherford gives $900 campaign donation back to bank
* Paralyzed ex-cop eyes Council seat
* First Rolling Meadows mayoral candidate steps up
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:33 pm
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I laud the effort, even though I doubt it will accomplish much with these voters.
It definitely is appropriate to appeal to these voters on emotion rather than issues. If they’re not serious enough to vote except in a presidential election when it’s the cool thing to do, they’re not serious enough to have much investment in the issues.
p.s. Good for Rutherford giving the donation back.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:46 pm
I don’t understand the concern. SEIU spent $2 million to get the candidate they wanted to lead the ticket. Everything else should just be on auto-pilot now. Just let that Quinn magic pour all over the state and the Dems will be dancing in the streets on Election Night.
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:50 pm
Tough sledding turning out 2008 Obama-only voters for dreary 2010 races. But to borrow from Willie Sutton, that’s where the voters are.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:51 pm
This is the first time I haven’t seen Rich cry for the crosstabs!
Think about it, who are these voters (likely, registered), what is the party breakdown, what is the past voting history of these voters, are they young, old, black, white?
Are they coming out to vote to vote AGAINST the Democrat agenda?
Totally unclear what this poll says and means.
As far as the effect of the GOTV effort, they are wisely concentrating their efforts away from mailers, but it also looks like they are ignoring walking precincts and person-to-person interactions. I wonder what demographic they are trying to reach. If it is people who irregularly use the internet, I can see a lot of wasted money.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 12:59 pm
It’s been a few years since I’ve had a dues paying union member in my family, but have had several in the past when times were better. Yet, how their dues were being allocated and spent by the Unions’ officials, and the Union officials’ in-your-face perks were always a topic of discussion. So this is a serious question: With all the layoffs, furloughs, and empty wallets around, does not spending a million dollars in this manner run the risk of alienating and infuriating union members and other voters in their families, who genuinely think there might be better use for that apparently abundant “dues” money?
Comment by Responsa Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Not a bad idea but it opens up to a decent counter IMHO
VO: The SEIU is spending a million dollars to help Pat Quinn get reelected, and why shouldn’t they. They have done quite well under Pat Quinn with pay raises and job security.
At the same time the state is months late paying the money the owe schools as well as small businesses.
Pat Quinn great for them, bad for the rest of us..
#2
VO: This state is broke, teachers are getting let go, the money the state owes to those who care for our most vulnerable continues to rise with bills going unpaid for months and months. With huge amounts of money promised to our schools not being paid.
And now the SEIU wants to go and vote to continue this sort of financial mismanagement. Why? Perhaps because they have done quite well under Pat Quinn, wouldn’t you like to have had (x & y) over the last 8 years? No wonder they want Quinn re-elected, it works out great for them.
Too bad he hasn’t worked out so great for us.
This November vote for what is best for you and your family, not for what works best for them.
Comment by OneMan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:09 pm
Responsa,
The union leadership cares as much about their members as the political establishment cares about its constituents. I hope that a “Tea Party-like” movement occurs within the unions to take them back from elites that do not represent the best interests and wishes of the membership.
I am also really pleased to read Huntley’s article. That is about the best treatment of the Tea Party and its effects on American politics I have seen in the MSM. Contrast his analysis with the commenters on the story. Amazing that some people just refuse to look at the Tea Party with something resembling an open mind.
Comment by Cincinnatus Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Here is the problem as I see it with there tactic, Obama brought out a lot these voters because they were excited to vote for him and they, at least at the time, believed in what he was selling. It is a lot easier to get to voters out to the polls when they are excited about a candidate or when they are excited about “change”, its lot hard when you are trying to get vote against a presences or a ghost. It would seem to me that the methods they are using are probably not going to reach a lot of the voters they are trying to get out to the polling place.
Comment by RMW Stanford Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:11 pm
How many 2008 Obama voters feel they’ve been screwed over and aren’t planning to vote? My estimate is a lot. Add in Quinn’s dismal job performance and an economy teetering on a double dip recession, thanks to Barrack “No Change” Obama, and I doubt a billion dollars in TV Ads will pull voters to the polls. Much more effective would be GOTV street money, so that aunts and uncles could get their younger relatives to vote. It’s pretty well hopeless and flat-lined for Quinn….Now’s the time to focus on the bleeding but not yet dead, like Cong. Hare.
Comment by Louis Howe Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:12 pm
I totally agree with RMw. One of the many problems for the Dems right now is that nobody believes that the GOP will do any of the crazy stuff it is talking about. A few text messages won’t change that.
The person who should be the happiest about this is a Republican….Bill Brady. They could have spent that 1 million beating the crap out of Bill with tv ads but instead they will be texting insipid little messages to people who no longer care. Nice!!
Comment by Raising Kane Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:17 pm
Cincinnatus, that’s the next step.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 1:35 pm
So SEIU is going to spend their money via consultants and media rather than voter contact which requires people. Either the consultants have come up with a plan that lines Thier pockets OR they can’t motivate Thier members members to do anything for the lost Quinn cause?
Comment by Discouraged Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:30 pm
Just to clarify, SEIU will be mobilizing thousands of members over the coming weeks to run direct voter contact efforts via the phone and door to door. Thees efforts will target Obama voters in Cook County, all voters in targeted state legislative races across the state and will culminate in a massive Election Day GOTV operation. Do not think that we are having any difficulty motivating out members to work for our endrosed candidates. Quite to the contrary, our members know exactly what is at stake this election and are willing to put in the hard work necessary to win in November. The efforts described in the PI story are in addition to our normal campaign activities not in place of them. Good day all.
Comment by seiuguy Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 2:37 pm
There might be a few ugly scenes when Aunt Bea and her Tea Partiers meet the union thugs at the voting booth in a few weeks.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:11 pm
Thank God SEIU is going to make the effort. The three “emotions” actually are the issues in a nutshell–or as close as we can tell based upon the ambiguity presented by the Tea Baggers and the other Repubs. Obama has succeeded in implementing long-term change–substantial and meaningful. Just not change that happens in one-quarter. These right-wing wacko’s are like the stockholders who looked no further than the balance sheet at the end of one quarter and to hell w/ the long-term health and interest of the company or the government. The vast majority of issues–the economy, the deficit, the wars–are things Obama inherited from Bush and is fixing. These people do not represent me and do represent the best interest of anyone–they are the greatest threat to the country since the Confederacy.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:12 pm
It appears that Seiuguy believes his own BS about the efficacy of their “massive” efforts and how they rule the roost in the halls of government.
I think the sun is about to set on your lackey Quinn.
Comment by Cruz Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:13 pm
Labor unions have pushed Democrats for decades…and usually they get stabbed in the back over and over and over and over again, and not just stabbed in the back, that dagger is twisted and grinded too. They think the Dems are their best friends but time has shown they aren’t and they never ever learn.
Comment by Segatari Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:13 pm
I think this strategy of reaching out to Obama voters in the African American community make some sense….
But why is the coordinated assuming that Obama voters are Dem voters? I read a poll earlier this summer, that Obama 08 voters were voting AGAINST Dems 2-1???
Id much rather see these people focusing on GOTV, but what do I know. Im just a political junkie…
Comment by P.T Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:48 pm
===I read a poll earlier this summer, that Obama 08 voters were voting AGAINST Dems 2-1???===
What? No way.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:49 pm
In the SEIU poll these Obama 08 voters gave the President an 80% approval rating. I don’t think they are voting Republican 2 to 1.
Comment by seiuguy Friday, Sep 17, 10 @ 3:55 pm