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* The Hill made the 17th CD its “Race of the Day” today. I agree, but with one caveat…
If there’s one race that could tell the true size of the expected Republican wave this fall, it may very well be Rep. Phil Hare’s reelection bid in Illinois’ 17th Congressional District.
To say that Democrats began the year not worrying about Hare’s reelection chances would be an understatement. The two-term congressman ran unopposed in 2008 and until earlier this month, Hare hadn’t run a TV ad since 2006.
But Republican Bobby Schilling is making a race of it in the 17th and the contest has quickly moved into tossup territory.
Hare is in the fight of his life, but the GOP hasn’t yet dumped any real money into this thing. Still, keep a close eye on this one.
* Democratic Congressman Bill Foster has a new TV ad. Rate it…
Script…
I’m Bill Foster and I approve this message.
Homeowner: My wife and I played by the rules, we paid our mortgage every month, but because of the housing crisis – our house is worth $98,000 less.
Narrator: Randy Hultgren’s company made millions selling high-risk mortgage products, fueling the housing crisis, and destroying home values.
Then using taxpayer bailout money, Hultgren’s company set up a Cayman Islands hedge fund and turned a fast profit buying back bad mortgages for pennies on the dollar.
Homeowner: Randy Hultgren might have profited, but I sure didn’t.
A bit wordy.
* Republican congressional candidate Adam Kinzinger plays the victim card in his new Internet promo video…
The Kinzinger video was posted to YouTube two days ago and it already has more than 13,000 views. It is chock full of distortions. He tries to make the claim that Halvorson’s campaign sponsored a rally which was also attended by one guy who brought a sign with a Hitler mustache superimposed on Kinzinger’s upper lip. By extension, therefore, Halvorson is responsible for that. Ridiculous.
We’ve been over this twice before. There’s no evidence whatsoever that Halvorson was in any way responsible for that doofus who brought the Hitler signs. To the contrary.
Which leaves us with the question: What’s worse, being portrayed as a Nazi by a lone goofball or smearing your opponent by claiming she was responsible for it? I would say it’s the latter. I’d also say Kinzinger was desperate, but he’s way ahead in the polls. There’s no reason to pull this shameful stunt. His campaign is out of control and the local media needs to weigh in on this. Soon.
* I’ve asked the Bob Dold campaign to explain an odd passage in last month’s edition of Conservative Magazine of Illinois, a publication I knew little about until it was publicized by the Dan Seals campaign last night. Check it out…
The mag’s highest rating is five stars. Dold gets three. So far, no response on why Dold’s campaign allegedly asked that it not be rated highly.
This would be par for the course for Dold, who appears to be running a two track campaign. In public, he’s a “moderate.” Under the media’s radar, he’s a social conservative. The local media has mostly played this off as a he said / he said dealio, but it appears to deserve a much closer look.
I’ll let you know if the Dold campaign ever answers my question.
…Adding… Here it is…
We told them Bob is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate, and that he is pro-choice.
I’ll be talking to the mag people next.
* Down-ballot news…
* Bloomington hopeful tours district, pans longtime incumbent opponent
* Schoenburg: Schock asks for push-button support in autocalls
* Rauschenberger wins case to stay on ballot
* Ill. GOP state senate candidate stays on ballot
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 12:55 pm
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So Dold is running a Kirk style camapaign. Seems all the rage this election, moderates running as conservatives. Its the new in thing, like silly bands and go go’s
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Rich, not to be nitpicky, but it’s Robert Dold, not Bruce
Comment by J Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:08 pm
LOL. I must have the Tribune on my mind. Fixed. Thanks.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:09 pm
Let me get this right, the few times some crank shows up with a Obama is Hitler sign, the entire news media and Democrat establishment says the Tea Party is racist. That’s cool.
But when some crank shows up to a Dem protest pulling the same crap, hold the phones, we need a new set of rules!!! Yeah… Is it that outrageous or is Mike Madigan calling in a chit getting you to cover for dear Debbie?
Comment by davE Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:11 pm
davE, your comment pretty much speaks for itself. Lunacy and paranoia.
Bite me.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:12 pm
We need a new word for this type of thing…we’ve got “truthiness” and now there is “proofiness” for using iffy numbers to make bogus information sound more credible. Talking last night one friend came up w/ “validacity” but I don’t think it works to cover something that’s presented as valid but lacks veracity–like the nazi ad and like Brietbart’s racism claim and like everything that Limbaugh says. Rich, maybe this can be your next contest.
Comment by D.P. Gumby Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Also, it’s not just a few isolated cranks at tea parties. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38228744/
If Halvorson did something like that, then it’s news. Otherwise, you got no case.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Rich, I pretty much totally disagree with your take on Halvorson’s role in organizing the protest… but I do love your way with davE.
Comment by ric831 Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:15 pm
Isn’t one billboard up in Iowa (or for that matter anything done in Iowa) the very definition of “isolated incidents”? I mean, it’s Iowa. They’re the Cubs for the 50 states.
Comment by John Bambenek Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:24 pm
Foster ad is the best IL congressional ad I’ve seen this cycle. The hit is direct and personal, tied explicitly to effects on real people. Excellent.
Comment by Dirt Digger Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:26 pm
So let me get this straight. Halvorson has been in politics for almost 20 years, 13 of them with a legislative record, 1.5 of them as part of a congressional agenda that is by any objective accounts toxic.
And this is what Team Kinzinger is spending its time on?
Frankly if that’s the case Halvorson should be recording that ad as an in-kind contribution to her campaign.
Comment by Dirt Digger Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:30 pm
It’s not isolated incidents that I was referring to. That would be an organized incident.
Also, didn’t your mommies ever teach you that two wrongs don’t make a right?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:31 pm
Lots of new “conservative” groups out there this election cycle creating heartburn at times for candidates. Sometimes they can be a little too helpful. I remember this group and this rating system quite well.
Consider the source over the Dold “rating.” We had this individual “in charge of the ratings” of that group show up to speak to a few of us just prior to a Lake County Republican Central Committee meeting and he was wall all giddy over the rating system, which also compared candidates against their opponents to determine if they were “conservative” enough to be worthy of support. They demanded we sign on to their system.
We sent them packing with the admonishment that the Central Committee supports all Republicans on the ballot. This upset them greatly.
If you can get a straight answer out of that group, go for it. We tried and failed. “I am not going into how we rated these candidates” is all we kept hearing until the meeting ended.
In particular Judge Dunn and his Democratic opponent received the same rating. They could not explain how they rated judges “liberal” or “conservative.”
The whole thing was amateurish and although I can appreciate Seals pushing it and raising hell about it, some things happen that are out of the control of campaigns, thanks to goofs, whether it be a handful of nut jobs holding up photographs with Hitler mustaches, or other goofs.
I will give Dold credit for not wanting to be rated by this group. I specifically recall telling their “rater” that I wouldn’t want to be rated by them based on what I had heard. Considering the goofy ratings they gave some other Lake County Republican candidates, why would Dold want to be saddled with a goofy rating from them. And to post that he didn’t want to be rated shows how amateurish they are in my opinion.
That’s my 2 cents on that issue based on my first hand experience with them.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:39 pm
I liked both ads.
Foster’s ad was a brilliant swipe at his opponent in that it made Foster seem sensitive to the plight of the “little guy” while directly tying his opponent to the real estate crisis.
Liked Kinzinger’s ad too. The video seems to make an irrefutable case that Halverson’s people were behind posters that labeled a veteran a nazi.
Comment by Simply Aghast Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:47 pm
===seems to make an irrefutable case that Halverson’s people were behind posters that labeled a veteran a nazi. ===
And that’s the problem because it’s a lie.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:48 pm
@ Louis G. Atsaves:
I think the issue is that Dold allegedly didn’t want to be rated *highly* by them. Not that he didn’t want to be rated by them at all.
I think there’s a distinction and a difference there.
Comment by Tangerine Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:51 pm
“I pretty much totally disagree with your take on Halvorson’s role in organizing the protest…”
The facts pretty much totally agree with Rich’s take.
Comment by Bill F. Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 1:58 pm
Tangerine, they couldn’t even explain their rating system to us. They did tell us that they were rating candidates even if they couldn’t contact them, based on news articles, their websites, etc.
Amateur hour x 10.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:00 pm
Some guy claiming in an article on a left-wing blog does not count as “facts”. In fact, not even in a court of law. A signed and sworn affadavit, sure.
Aren’t we all just a little too eager to take the first sign of Halvorson’s innocence as Gospel? Just sayin’
Comment by John Bambenek Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:12 pm
Re: Foster’s ad: there seems to be some critical information missing from the script. Allow me to make the necessary correction:
“Then using taxpayer bailout money that Foster voted to appropriate, Hultgren’s company cleared bad mortgages off the books of “too big to fail” financial institutions, in a move that President Obama credits with saving our entire economic system from collapse.”
Beyond that, let me just say that Bill Foster hasn’t exactly done any favors for me, as a homeowner who “plays by the rules.” Unfortunately, my wife and I bought our house 12 months too early, missing out on the generous new-home buyer tax credit. Sure would have come in handy for us as a working class family trying to get by. We also bought our last car 16 months too early to qualify for cash-for-clunkers. Oh well, better luck next recession I suppose. I guess it’s the thought that counts, right Congressman?
Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:30 pm
These are the ads I was waiting for from Foster. There is no way he can run on his record and win, so attacking his opponent is his best bet. As an incumbent who voted for unpopular bills/policy, he has to distract from his record and play the “but he’s worse!” card for all it’s worth.
For anyone who sees through all that, this ad is a D–no sourcing, no direct hit on Hultgren (it’s smear-by-association), and very short on facts. Unless Foster can prove Randy was somehow championing screwing the little guys (quite a stretch, at best), this ad doesn’t work as a stand-alone. If he dumps follow-up hits/repetition to try to sink in the message, maybe this works. Scream something enough times and some people will start buying into it. Foster has the money to do it, and he few options? If he goes too heavy, does it backfire? I think so–Foster’s reputation precedes him, and for people like me it just makes us want to fight all the harder to get rid of him.
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:34 pm
Liandro you see the bottom of the screen in the ad? Where it says “Source:”
That’s the sourcing.
Comment by Dirt Digger Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:54 pm
The local media around here won’t touch Kinzinger. Partly because his daddy was slightly powerful and connected. Slightly because Adam is seen as the next Aaron Schock and seemingly “untouchable”.
I actually think Adam is better than this. But he is clearly getting advice from the wrong people. The ad is off-base, tasteless … and unnecessary for someone who is not clawing to crawl out from being down 20 points.
@bambenek … I’d say the opposite appears to be true - way too many are jumping at the red meat from Kinzinger and assuming it’s true. Clearly there are more *facts* that suggest it’s not true than there are facts that suggest it is. But when it’s red meat your people want, well red meat they must have. Even if it’s undercooked.
Comment by ShadyBillBrady Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 2:56 pm
Mr. Foster’s add is in sync with his other attempts to hide the fact that he voted for the Stimulus, voted for the Obama Care, voted in mostly lock step with everything the Speaker wanted him to vote for in total disregard to the wants of at least this constituent. His replies to my personal e-mail appeals for him NOT to do these votes came back as generic blather from the DNCC…pathetic.
Comment by Captain Illini Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:07 pm
=== Aren’t we all just a little too eager to take the first sign of Halvorson’s innocence as Gospel? Just sayin’ ===
So guilty until proven innocent is you position? seems like a bad idea unless you want to live in a police state…. just sayin….
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:11 pm
=== the few times some crank shows up with a Obama is Hitler sign, the entire news media and Democrat establishment says the Tea Party is racist.===
“The few times?” Well, it’s pretty much every time.
“the entire media?” No, not the entire media.
“democratic establishment?” And alot of others.
“says the Tea Party is racist?” No, the knock is that “some elements” of the Tea Party is racist.
Paranoia and fear mongering from the right. All aboard the crazy train!!!!
Comment by Deep South Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:17 pm
If Dold has been endorsed by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life, then he is NOT pro-choice. That support a ban on birth control
Comment by Lady Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:17 pm
@dirt digger:
Then allow me to modify it to “poor sourcing”…none of those sources are saying exactly what the ad is saying, and the differences are critical. Not to mention that his is a smear-by-association being sold as a direct hit on Hultgren. Please, it’s not hard to see through.
Most of Kirk’s initial attacks on Alexi were similarly vapid, and I said so. His newer ads use Alexi’s actual positions and record–far, far better. Foster is going the smear route (that both Alexi and Kirk initially took) because Hultgren’s rhetoric is too solidly backed up by his record.
One more thing: PLEASE tell me you find it hypocritical for Foster, who voted for both TARP *and* the stimulus, to be attacking Hultgren over his *company*’s use of that bill? Is Foster trying to sell to us that he DIDN’T want his vote to be used? Despite Hultgren being very much on record with his position on all this, and Foster being on record THROUGH ACTUAL LEGISLATIVE VOTES, you defend this ad? Suit yourself, I know how I’m voting. Foster’s record speaks far louder then his smears…especially considering he had the power of sitting on the financial services committee.
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:22 pm
Foster(s), Australian for beer… I support electing beer to an elected office. Then again I am waiting for the return of beer blogging fridays.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:26 pm
On the topic of Kizinger’s video: I agree with Rich, this is beneath his campaign. He’s can win with an issue-oriented campaign, and doing so would be much better for IL and for his district. I’m not saying he shouldn’t do response ads or hit back on things, but this seems to be unnecessary. Kill her with the issues, Adam!
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:33 pm
Liandro,
The sources are, in fact, saying exactly what the ad is saying. You can read it yourself, the text is right there.
And strictly speaking, unless Hultgren raises the money or the NRCC puts a lot more money in this one, Foster’s “record” is going to stay quiet as a mouse.
Comment by Dirt Digger Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 3:58 pm
I was there in Joliet that night for the “Joe The Plumber” event. Incidentally, I asked Joe if he was a “union” or a “non-union” plumber and he replied “Non-union”. I asked it as a joke and Joe was as sincere as a heart-attack with his reply of “non-union” (which I thought was kind of funny). Anyway, I had to leave the event a little early that night. When I left I walked across the street and stood for a couple minutes amongst the 10 or 12 “protesters”. I think that I woke most of them up when I walked over by them. They were like most protest groups who stand outside the building of the opposition’s ongoing event. They were all half-asleep and simply waiting for the media to exit the building so they could suddenly snap to life and howl and try to get their big “media moment”. Who even cares if Halvorson put them up to it? It is as inane and about as relevent as Ellen DeGeneres “significant other” taking her lover’s last name. “Who really cares?” They didn’t harm anybody, they were not threatening, or intimidating to anyone and the Hitler mustache thing was sophomoric at best. The fact that anybody would even got their shorts tied in a knot over it or that it made it into the media shows that it must have been a “slow news day”.
Comment by Cool Hand Luke Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 4:22 pm
The Foster spot should be good. After all, the housing hustlers were instrumental in fueling the housing bubble that burst and wiped out world finance.
But the dirty secret is, those guys got away with it. It was a no-lose racket for everyone involved as long as real estate went up.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 4:32 pm
I think the Kinzinger ad must have been made by his proud parents or some other relative. Serously, “Captain Kinzinger” and 9 seconds of video of him in uniform? DoD regs prohibit having the candidate’s primary depiction being in uniform lest it imply DoD endorsement.
Kinzinger has a lot of ammo with which to attack Halvorsen, the ad plays to the dumb crowd.
Comment by Blazing Saddle Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 4:32 pm
There is no one in Congress anymore committed to working Americans than Phil Hare. He is a decent, committed public servant. It will be a tragedy when he gets beat because of the effete timidity of Pres. Obama and incompetence of Gov. Quinn. This election will be determined by turnout. Unfortunately, neither Obama nor Quinn has inspired anybody to get out to vote.
Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 5:04 pm
==There is no one in Congress anymore committed to working Americans than Phil Hare. He is a decent, committed public servant==…
…who either (a) isn’t bright enough to comprehend bills he reads before he votes on them, or (b) lies to his constituents by saying he’s read a bill that he in fact never did and can’t answer simple questions about.
==It will be a tragedy when he gets beat==
And he will have nobody to blame but himself. Seriously, his district is set up for any Democrat with a pulse and/or brain to win comfortably.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 5:32 pm
Anon….you’re an either an idiot or haven’t a clue about how the legislative process works…NOBODY reads every bill. Legislators rely of staff analysis, as they should. Democrats, and more importantly, leaning Democrats aren’t going to the polls this fall because Obama has mealy-mouth his “Change we can believe in” to the point nobody believes he can deliver anything and Quinn has proved himself to be incompetent as a Chief Executive
Comment by Louis Howe Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 5:44 pm
Louis, so then you’re saying that Hare is a liar then. He explicitly said that he read the health care bill more than once. You’re childish insult and obvious man crush for Hare aside, I stand by my comment. Hare has only himself to blame for being in this position in a heavily Dem, gerrymandered district.
Comment by ANON Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 7:58 pm
During the primary Dold had support from Vernon Township Committeeman Don Castella. Castella simply does not support pro-choice candidates. Same thing with Ruth O’Connor and Penny Pullen in Wheeling and they supported Dold. Its a congressional district with few activists except the wing nuits and Dold told them what they wanted hear in order to win the primary.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 9:51 pm
That Kinzinger ad is so OTT!!!
What does his military service have to with him being called a Nazi anyway?
It’s not civil or appropriate (or frankly accurate to the history) to compare ANY politician to a Nazi, but this ad turns me off more to Kinzinger patently exploiting his military record in an ad with his name on it than it does make me incensed at Halvorson over some of her idiot supporters (or workers) holding a sign comparing him to a Nazi.
Though maybe I’m just a bit salty here because I about sprained my eyeballs trying to read the fine print on the Top Gun footage disclaiming Dept. of Defense endorsement.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 10:04 pm
Anonymous 9:51 pm: What is your point?
I too supported Dold in the primary and I’m a pro-choice who is also a Republican Township Chairman. My endorsement appeared on one of Dold’s mailers. I stand by it and still endorse him. Maybe that makes me a wing nut too?
Maybe these endorsement groups aren’t doing as good of a job of vetting as they are supposed to. I highlighted the amateurish rating system of one group earlier in this thread of comments.
Or maybe this all brings out the problems besetting moderate candidates these days. They get pounded by both sides relentlessly and in my humble opinion, foolishly. They are trusted neither by the right or by the left who want to use them when they need them, then attack them when they have no further use for them.
So Seals relentlessly states that Dold is really a conservative in disguise. The conservatives desperately want Dold to be a conservative like them, because they hate Seals. The liberal Democrats refuse to believe that any Republican can ever hold moderate positions. They are repeatedly called “liars” by both sides because they take the middle road or drift from one side to another.
And on and on and on and on and on and on and on!
It’s a shame because without a solid block of moderates in Congress or in Springfield who can think for themselves without being told how to vote, our nation and state has degenerated into governments that are not responsive to the people they are supposed to serve.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 11:40 pm
Foster spot’s will resonate with a lot of voters. Mr. Hultgren is one of those toxic asset salesmen who made quick bucks while putting the entire country in a mess. It sounds like Mr. Hultgren now decided to run for congress by being a hypocrite and a liar. Read the piece in Crain’s Chicago Business.
Comment by ForKids Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 11:42 pm
@Dirt Digger:
I agree, Foster’s cash advantage is what’s keeping any hope alive for him. In this kind of environment, though, hiding his record (I like how you put “record” in quotes, as if actual votes are debatable…) is going to be very hard to do.
Comment by Liandro Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 11:47 pm
==He explicitly said that he read the health care bill more than once.==
Perhaps he did, that doesn’t mean he memorized it. Have you ever read a “bill”? They are incredibly long and complicated. If we assume Hare read it three times, would that be enough for him to remember all of the provisions so that if someone asked him about it he could recite it chapter and verse? I think not.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Sep 24, 10 @ 12:02 am
“There is no one in Congress anymore committed to working Americans than Phil Hare.”
Any time in politics I see “working Americans” or “working families,” I know to go get a shovel on account of what is sure to follow.
Comment by T.J. Friday, Sep 24, 10 @ 12:14 am
Louis Atsaves–
My point is that Bob Dold got support from single issue pro-life activists and groups during the primary. He didn’t do that by telling them how moderate and pro-choice he was. He did it by telling them what they wanted to hear.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 24, 10 @ 7:50 am