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Question of the day

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* I’ve been having serious problems with my Firefox browser for a few days now, so I made the decision a couple of hours ago to switch over to a new browser. I’m not sure what’s going on, but the thing is freezing up constantly. Safari doesn’t work well with this blog platform, so I’m trying out Opera. Seems OK for now. But that’s why I’ve been so slow to post today.

* Anyway, on to The Question: Who do you think will be the biggest surprise winner this November? Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:26 pm

Comments

Just a hunch, but Alexi. My only explanation is that Kirk should have buried him long ago with all of Alexi’s made-to-order negatives and lack of any real reasons why he should be a U.S. senator.

The fact that Kirk hasn’t been able to put him away by now suggests to me that he won’t, even with the big money advantage.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Got to agree with Alexi. Illinois is still a blue state, and Kirk isn’t firing up the independents, and has a not-insignificant weakness in the base. Touch-and-go for Giannoulias, but I think that has the potential to be the surprise upset.

Comment by South of Sherman Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:34 pm
Quinn
Clearly voters have figured out the NoTAxBill and Daddy’s Little Deduction are not anywhere near ready for prime time
Cut Min Wag
Freeze Educator Salaries
Let’s Talk About Right to Work
Use Rx Ron Stephens as a Vets Adviser
Use the Blagoof Kink from McPier for raising cash.

Each one of these campaign platforms are starting to sink in. Even downstaters are getting it. NoTaxBill might still win downstate but not by what he needs.

It is clear the poll numbers are confirming all of this plain and simple.

BTW…Q:any explanation why the Trib is giving the least amount of time for the major races to use endorsements before early voting.
A: Because there some NoTaxBill stuff still floating out there and they don’t want to look like total fools.

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:34 pm
You didn’t happen to upgrade to Firefox 4, did you? Doesn’t work well on Mac in my experience.

Opera is a good browser, but if it doesn’t work for you, you might try Chrome.

Comment by whet moser Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:35 pm
Try google chrome for Mac - works great with many website CMS’s (I use it a lot with wordpress sites, and I think capfax is wordpress)

The biggest surprise winner will be the voters of this state, who take the time to educate themselves on the issues and the candidates, and vote for candidates who will make the tough decisions, not simply the politically expedient ones, to close the state’s budget hole through increased revenues and cuts to services; resulting in elected officials who will turn a deaf ear to all special interest groups and make decisions that will set Illinois back on the track towards economic prosperity.

In all seriousness - I think Halvorson surprises everyone and squeaks out a nail bitter.

Comment by mongoose Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:37 pm
Try Google Chrome. It works wonderfully.

Comment by Samwise Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:38 pm
Chrome does not work with my editing platform. Move along, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:39 pm
i abandoned firefox for chrome months ago because of the same issue. i’ve been very happy with it.

as for your question, alexi’s victory will only be a surprise to people who aren’t paying attention. i’ve been able to attend a few more tea party functions since the new lenox event this summer, and i continue to be struck by how much people there don’t care if republicans take over that senate seat. “what’s the difference?” is a question i used to hear only from the left. kirk will need to tear alexi down with something new/different that politifact doesn’t declare a lie to win (and he’s simply not that smart).

i think the surprise winner is going to be pat quinn. i continue to be impressed by what they are doing, their ability to take information and act on it, even changing their strategy (although i don’t always agree with it at the time). bill brady is too overconfident, and that always makes surprise possible.

having said that, i don’t know when either alexi or pat will be declared winners, i have a feeling that both will missed the network election shows and be decided by absentees (maybe that’s the big surprise!)…

Comment by bored now Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Alexi winning won’t be a surprise. The race has been close forever.

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:42 pm
Re browser, I second the motion on Chrome.

Re surprise winner, Alexi may win, but that would not be such a surprise, since that has been rated a tossup by RealClearPolitics all along. The big surprise right now is the latest batch polls suggesting that the Quinn campaign may be coming back from the dead, and RCP has now moved it back from Likely Republican to Tossup. I bet the next simulations from fivethirtyeight.com will also give Quinn better odds than the last set. If Quinn does win, that will definitely be the biggest surprise, and will have a lot of people wondering what happened.

Comment by jake Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:42 pm
None of us until CFS can write a coherent sentence.

Comment by Davey Boy Smithe Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:43 pm
joel pollak will be one of the busts of the cycle. He’s gotten a lot of publicity but that’s the wrong politics for the district. Bean however will underachieve leaving republicans looking like fools again for not challenging an undistinguished congresscriter.

For the first and only time I agree with bored now. I know it doesnt work for you, but for others its very simple and easy.

Comment by shore Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Cedra Crenshaw in the 42nd State Senate District. Tea Party Activists+General Voter Anger vs. Incumbents+Anger Over Dems trying to boot her off the ballot carry her to victory over AJ Wilhelmi, who will then blame whoever was the doofus that decided to challenger her petitions and gave her all kinds of free publicity.

Comment by Joliet Jackhammers, RIP Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:48 pm
I not really sure if in the state wide races there will be a big surprise winner. If Alexi or Kirk win I would not call a surprise, the only way it would be if one wins by a large margin. I still favor Brady to beat Quinn, so I dont see any real surprises there. Same with the down ballot statewide races, I dont see any shockers there.

Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:55 pm
Forrest Claypool. He already surprised the machine with a solid 90,000 signatures. He has the name recognition and money to win, and the truth is on his side. As far as actual substance, Berrios doesn’t have a leg to stand on. His lazy responses in interviews and not showing up to debates and forums proves this. He’ll try, but in the end the public knows the truth.

Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Maybe Claypool. I haven’t got the feel of this race yet but it is possible. He would need black voters which I’m pretty sure won’t happen but I’m not hooked into this one.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Quinn and Lexi pull it off…the unions deliver…
once again…

Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:05 pm
The biggest surprise winner will be whatever party loses the governor’s race thanks to the passage of the recall amendment and is able to position themselves to oust the unpopular winner of this contest in just 2 years.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:05 pm
John Mulroe - in the State Senate. An alderman with 20 years experience will blow a great chance for a GOP pickup. Not so conservative Brian Doherty won’t win around here after voting with Daley almost all the time.

Comment by NW Side GOP Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:16 pm
Hamilton Chang

Comment by Another Anonymous Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:24 pm
I gotta say Chang has been doing a great job and really might be the suprise winner!

Comment by 10th Indy Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:29 pm
Seals. In the past, he’s always found a way to lose. Somehow he takes the seat this time.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:42 pm
Dwight Kay defeats Jay Hoffman

Comment by BIG R.PH. Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 1:44 pm
For me the biggest upset would be if Alexi somehow wins.

Don’t know about this Kinzinger, but I think Halvorson losing would be a big upset also.

Comment by siriusly Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:12 pm
shore: The question you answered, “who would be the biggest bust” and/or “how have the Republicans messed up” don’t seem to have been the question of the day.

That said, I think Pollak would be a big surprise to the Democrats, Schakowsky and her campaign manager. Check out pollakforcongress for his first tv ad. Contrast that with the incumbent…

Comment by non-shore Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:25 pm
The biggest surprise, to most observers, is going to be a Green getting elected to the General Assembly. Jeremy Karpen (39) and Kenny Williams (29) are the two with the best chances, since they’re in two-way races against well-known machine lackeys. Legislative races in Cook County and especially within the city tend to be underreported, which is why one of them winning will easily qualify as the biggest surprise, because most pundits won’t have been paying attention and won’t have seen it coming.

Comment by Phil Huckelberry Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:26 pm
Carole Cheney wins as DuPage County Board Chair due to 1) hard-working candidate, and 2) infighting between Republican factions.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 2:38 pm
non-shore, If you have ever been to the 9th district where dan seals also lives you know that it is the last place a joel pollak tea party message resonates. Pollak is also a former gore campaign worker which hasn’t endeared him to local republicans.

Comment by shore Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:03 pm
Three of the four Collar County Democrats for US Rep will lose (Foster, Halvorson, Seals, Schakowsky).

Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:04 pm
Cincinnatus- You have answered the question in an interesting way. Would you say the least likely to lose is Schakowsky? I agree with that; however, I wouldn’t bet on her holding the seat past 11/2. I would so love to see her repeat Rosty’s exit in ‘94.

Comment by non-shore Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:10 pm
Alexi will win but won’t be a suprise. We picked him months ago. It doesn’t look like Quinn will be much of a suprise either, now. So I’ll go with Robin Kelly. I’ve learned my lesson and I never underestimate Robin. I’ll be suprised if shhe doesn’t win.

Comment by Bill Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:13 pm
Cincy, what Collar County does Schakowsky represent?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:45 pm
Mmnnn. Cincy predicts GOP wins/Dem losses. Never saw that prediction coming.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 3:52 pm
Charlie Landers over Wayne Rosenthal

Comment by Co Ron Er Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:00 pm
- Co Ron Er - Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 5:00 pm: harlie Landers over Wayne Rosenthal

That would be no surprise ConRonEr. It is a given that Rosenthal leads big time, plus he has run a clean campaign. My big surprise would be if Quinn is elected. My fear is they elected Blago for 2 terms, what makes Quinn different? Heaven help us! My two cents and thank you for allowing me to add to this question.

Comment by NRA associate Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:28 pm
The Safari browser.

Comment by Homer J. Simpson Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 6:32 pm
Adam Baumgartner over Toi Hutcheson (Halversons old seat), finally the GOP has a candidate who is a new face, young (successfull) business owner( employees over 50 people) from a working class family with middle class roots, pro 2nd amendment, and he’s ran HIS OWN campaign (until leadership realized he has a legit chance)! He’s staying grounded in thought and has nothing to lose !!

Comment by railrat Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 7:38 pm
Cedra Crenshaw winning over State Senator AJ Wilhelmi will be the big surprise. AJ is and has been a very well-liked young man in Will County. He made the mistake of voting as his Party leadership told him to vote during tough economic times.He knew his Democrat Party leadership brought him to the dance but this is one time “loyalty to his date” is going to come back and haunt him. He voted to raise the Will County sales tax, he voted to raise his own pay, and he tried to have his previously unknown GOP challenger (Cedra Crenshaw) kept off of the ballot. He would have been well-advised to have shown some independent thinking in a year when voters are upset with “all incumbents”.

Comment by Cool Hand Luke Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:43 pm
Dailey beats Stephens in the Illinois House race. She is campaigning hard and he is never seen. His indiscretions will finally do him in.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:49 pm
I don’t see any surprises because the entire year has been full of surprises.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Oct 4, 10 @ 8:56 pm