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Dead cat bounce for the Dems or another flawed poll?

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Illinois
Polls

* A new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has Bill Brady opening up a nine-point lead over Gov. Pat Quinn, which is inconsistent with all but one poll taken earlier this month that either had the race super-close or Quinn ahead. But there are a ton of undecideds in this poll and the pollster didn’t push voters to say who they were leaning toward. Let’s have a look…

Quinn 29.8%
Bill Brady 38.4%
Whitney 2.2%
Green 1.5%
Cohen 5.9%
Someone else 2.6%
Don’t know 19.5%

Why include “Someone else” when they have all the ballot names? That many people won’t write in somebody. Also, this poll was taken over eleven days, which is a lot.

And to give you an idea about those undecideds, the Tribune had them at 12 percent, PPP had them at 11 percent and CNN had them at 4 percent and Rasmussen (thrown in just to give you an idea) had them at 8 percent.

* Still, the US Senate numbers seem to match up with everybody else…

Giannoulias 36.8%
Kirk 37.3%
Labno 1.8%
Jones 3.3%
Someone else 2.4%
Other/Don’t know 18.3%

Although, again, there’s an inordinately huge number of undecideds.

* This next question is hugely bad news for Democrats. A tied generic congressional ballot means doom because so many Democratic districts are overwhelmingly D…

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate OR the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?

Republican 40.8%
Democrat 40.0%
Other/Don’t know 19.3%

But, again, large numbers of undecideds.

* Check out the difference between the national right track/wrong track numbers and those for Illinois and local…

We would like to know what you think about the direction of the United States of America. Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?

Right direction 29.4%
Wrong direction 62.4%
Other/Don’t know 8.2%

And what about the direction of the State of Illinois? Generally speaking, are things in Illinois going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?

Right direction 11.1%
Wrong direction 81.3%
Other/Don’t know 7.7%

And how are things going in your city or area of the state? In general, are things in your city or area going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?

Right direction 45.5%
Wrong direction 42.9%
Other/Don’t know 11.6%

Incumbent legislators: Watch out, unless you can make yourself look like a local.

* Methodology…

758 likely voters taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 10. The margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points

* Related…

* VIDEO: Yepsen breaks down Simon Institute guv, Sen polls

* Poll predicts close governor’s, senate race

* New poll shows Brady up by 9 percentage points in governor’s race

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:57 am

Comments

The GOP momentum earlier in the fall caused a reaction by Democrats to pay attention…It seemed like things got tighter for Republicans nationally around the same period. That may be wearing off.

Comment by Matt Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:00 am
How many of those Don’t Know are old Whitney voters from 2006? I’m one of them - “5% Green” or “Not Brady” is a decision that is made in the last week before the election.

Comment by JN Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:12 am
This poll was conducted over 11 days?! Were they doing in person interviews, going door-to-door?

Comment by ANON Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:19 am
First, the election for Governor of Illinois…if the election were held today, would you vote for the Democrat, Pat Quinn; the Republican, Bill Brady; the Green Party candidate, Rich Whitney; the Libertarian, Lex Green; or the independent, Scott Lee Cohen?

==Why include “Someone else” when they have all the ballot names? That many people won’t write in somebody.==

Rich, they did not include “someone else” on the question…unprompted people gave some other name as an answer.

Comment by Living in Oklahoma Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:26 am
===unprompted people gave some other name as an answer. ===

Then that’s worse. Make sure they stick to the candidates, for Pete’s sake.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:29 am
Those poll numbers appear correct.
We cannot at this point conclude if what we saw earlier was a dead cat bounce because we do not really know these things until November 3rd. I have been suspecting that it was.

I did not believe the first polls showing Brady ahead when they first appeared. So I just did not believe the last poll numbers showing the Race tied either.

That generic poll is cyanide. It cannot get worse than that and still be the Illinois I grew up in.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:34 am
Hard to imagine Dems not coming home by election day, and there are a lot more Dems in the state.

And look for the Dems to use that Nazi troop re-enactor from Ohio to really scare people about the tea partiers nationwide. That guy is unbelievable.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/10/why-is-this-gop-house-candidate-dressed-as-a-nazi/64319/

Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:44 am
ran into “someone else” for governor campaigning on the green line in the loop southbound friday afternoon. i cant remember his name but he was a black man running as a write in and carrying this hardcover version of common sense. who w as this guy? i wanted to ask fri but comments closed by the time i got home.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:54 am
I wonder if Sheila Simon will repudiate this poll, as she has others that have shown her team behind?

Comment by N'ville Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 12:35 pm
What’s with the 11 days? Were they using carrier pigeons?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 1:07 pm
There aren’t a lot of crosstabs but a cursurory look at them tells you things that make me believe the numbers are a lot closer:
1) Quinn is only beating Brady 53-16 in Chicago with 20% undecided. All other polls have showed Democrats in Chicago coming home to Quinn and this poll doesnt reflect that.
2) The number of undecideds in Chicago is 20% where Quinn is trouncing Brady and is only 13% downstate where Brady is trouncing Quinn. Again, more Democrats will come back to Quinn.

Brady may still be ahead but if voters are pushed at all the race is likely a lot closer. I just don’t buy the 20% undecided # with 3 weeks to go.

Comment by Wizard of Ozzie Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:39 pm
I am a registered Dem and just voted for every R on the ballot with the exception of Jessie White- These polls are all missing voter anger and enthusiam- They told me at my local early voting place that the number of people showing up is unbelievable- There is a tsunami that is going to roll a lot of D’s out of office all thanks to the leftist agenda the president enacted after running as a moderate- He lost me on health care reform which resulted in my premiums for self coverage going up due to all of the new mandated preventive care benefits required to be included which the President keeps telling everyone are free

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:43 pm
Poll took 11 days to gather and four more to actually report. SO it is dated at best
Maybe the academics should focus on other aspects of the campaign

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:54 pm
Way to stick to the topic Sue.

But I think the bounce we’ve seen is hard core dems coming home, but it won’t be enough because many of them won’t show up to vote. Even if PQ and Alexi are tied in latest polls, their turnout will be less than the GOP. Any Dem not leading by now now is in trouble.

Comment by Siriusly Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 3:24 pm
==Way to stick to the topic Sue==
I’m guessing “Sue” is NOT a “registered Dem.”

Comment by Vote Quimby! Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 5:57 pm
Brady will win this election by 6-8 points. Get ready for it.

Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 7:57 pm