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* The DCCC has spent $360K on Congressman Phil Hare, according to Hotline on Call. Hare will need every dollar he can get. The Hill’s new poll has him trailing Republican Bobby Schilling by seven points…
Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.
President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.
Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.
Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.
And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.
* Here’s a brutal NRCC ad attacking Hare…
*** UPDATE *** From the Hare campaign…
Had the National Republican Campaign Committee bothered to watch Congressman Hare’s complete statement, they would have understood he was clearly saying that we must invest in local communities to keep teachers and firefighters on the job. The myth Hare referred to is that you can’t spend at all during periods of debt. Hare even points out several budget offsets that could pay for these investments like ending tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires and subsidies to the oil industry–offsets Republicans like Schilling refuse to support.
Watch the full video in context here.
Associated Press says clip is out of context: “But add a little context and it becomes clear that Hare was not denying the debt exists. He was calling it a myth that the debt means the federal government can’t spend money on important programs.”
* The NRCC’s latest poll has Schilling leading Hare 44-41.
* Hotline on Call also reports that the DCCC has spent $366K recently on Congressman Bill Foster. The Hill poll has Foster trailing Randy Hultgren by one point…
Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll. […]
The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27 percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren. […]
Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and older voters.
President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.
When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.
* The Democrats are unleashing a double-barreled attack on Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Both ads hit him for being pro-life in a pro-choice district. Dold claims he’s pro-choice, but Planned Parenthood begs to differ. First up, Democrat Dan Seals’ ad, which claims that Dold is “hiding who he is”…
* The DCCC’s ad says “Robert Dold has been careful about what he shows us” and goes on to say he is “backed” by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life. Actually, the group “recommended” Dold in the primary. Watch…
According to Hotline on Call, the DCCC has spent $631,000 on Seals.
* Roundup…
* 3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup
* Durbin Stumps Downstate With Hare
* New 10th District ads have very different messages
* Kinzinger, Halvorson in 11th District showdown
* Area mayors endorse Rep. Halvorson
* Polls: Tight race in 14th Congressional District
* Hare and Shilling Debate in Springfield
* US House Candidates Debate in Springfield
* U.S. Rep. Shimkus: ‘I feel I need to be there’
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 8:48 am
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Yeesh, that Phil Hare has a way with words, doesn’t he? I’m not quite sure what he was trying to say in his prepared remarks, but he probably should have had someone eyeball them before he went with it.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:02 am
Considering the difference in TV advertising for Foster vs. Hultgren, I think Foster may be in trouble.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:03 am
I felt that Dold outperformed Seals on Chicago Tonight last night.
Comment by 42nd Ward Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:05 am
42nd Ward — I didn’t even know that Seals and Dold were going to be on last night. Any details?
Comment by anon Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:12 am
Hare is in trouble outside of the Quad Cities. There are solid rural conservative counties in his district that have never been able overcome the Democratic voting in the cities when it comes to congressional representation.
Lane Evans was unassailable, having a solid following among veterans and their families including the ones who would have voted Republican. Phil Hare may have had Lane Evans blessing, but he doesn’t have Evans reputation or skill in campaigning. Even when Lane Evan’s health was deteriorating and he needed assistance to stand or walk, his popularity never declined.
If Hare can’t find a skeleton rattling around in Bobby Schilling’s closet, the rural county Republicans may vote him in.
Comment by Aldyth Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:18 am
What is amazing is Hultgren isn’t running TV adds and the money isn’t flowing on that side. What gives. I guess we understand how DC based staff works. It’s all about negative and nothing about why I should actually vote for someone.
Comment by frustrated GOP Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:28 am
It’s hard to imagine how even the most die-hard Dem would deep down feel comfortable with Hare representing them and their interests in Washington. He has become a caricature and he did it all to himself.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:32 am
Of course Lane Evans was unassailable, because the Dems drew this SNAKE-like district to keep him in office. I could PHYSICALLY WALK to these three different districts that were parallel to each other, not on a border corner. Absolutely idiotic and illegal and I can’t believe no one stepped up and challenged that blanantly gerrymandered district.
Comment by Segatari Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:36 am
Phil Hare is showing that he never had to run a campaign before. The tax ad that he is running trying to show Schilling didn’t pay his taxes is silly. Schilling was late pay filing fees 10+ years ago. Having worked with businesses before, many businesses do pay this late as it is overlooked because it comes at different times than tax filing season for each business. Equating this with not paying taxes is a little stretching of the truth.
Comment by ourMagician Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:41 am
I saw Dold and Seals on Chicago Tonight and thought Dold was doing well until he got defensive at one point and started bringing up his own negatives that Seals hadn’t even mentioned yet. He got stuck in the mud and then couldn’t get out.
Comment by Verdicto Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:49 am
Nearly 30 years ago, in the midst of the last serious recession, a young democrat idealist and Ted Kennedy presidential organizer, challenged a 20 year moderate Republican for Congress. His name was Lane Evans and he won. It was the same year Dick Durbin beat Paul Findley. The economy was again the main issue and democrats promised to challenge Reaganomics. However, the party of FDR, HST, and LBJ had lost its way. Over the next 30 years Reaganomics not only won, but as Rachael Maddow has said, Democrats elected Bill Clinton, “the best Republican President of the last century.”
The Democratic Party failed to deliver for working class Americans and Phil Hare will join dozens of incumbent democrats throughout America by paying the ultimate price—their political careers. In 1982 downstate Illinois had four Democrat Congressmen. On November 3rd, we’ll have one—Costello.
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:51 am
I still think Hare can pull it off barely, but he has to pray that Rock Island County comes out strongly for him. If not the rural parts of his district will elect Schilling.
Comment by Publius Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:52 am
I thought that Dold seemed really petty at the end of the debate, when they had just addressed the Seals ad (pro choice), and Dold was “what about his?”. Dold sounded like a 2nd grader.
Comment by trees Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:56 am
Seals is behind and they are trying to play catch up. Less than two weeks out he might have too steep of a hill to climb. If you lose three times, are you automatically out?
Comment by Jaded Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 9:58 am
“goes on to say he is “backed” by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life. Actually, the group “recommended” Dold in the primary”
Rich, isn’t a recommendation a backing? Dold has spent the entire campaign season denying things he claimed during the primary (e.g., that he’s the “conservative choice”), and he’s had to take down many posts on his own site and facebook. He even told a voter he’s “more conservative” than he “lets on”. The hypocrisy here is clear. And I’ve never seen Dold outperform Seals in any way. He was strong in the primary but has become more weasely and goofy as he’s clearly been more trained by the right.
Comment by kirk constituent Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 10:00 am
Seals is behind and they are trying to play catch up.
If you say so…
Nate Silver gives Seals a 70% of winning right now. Seals has winning in all but one poll, and that one poll has some funny numbers.
Comment by dave Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 10:06 am
Jaded - Seals is not behind. We Ask America did a robopoll showing Dold up 11, but they finally admitted that it had a 28% Dem weighting. That is quite a stretch in a district that went 61% for Obama.
The respected industry journal The Hill did an independent poll that showed Seals up 12, but taht one overweighted Dems in my opinion.(http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-2/123969-district-by-district-illinois)
This is a very, very close race and may well depend on how well the Dems get out the vote in their strong areas.
Comment by Another Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 10:12 am
Ok, so he is not behind and the “ask” poll is wrong. I’ll accept that. I am not from the 10th, so I don’t have a dog in this fight, but I would say that after 6 years of running for Congress if Dan Seals has to “unleash a double barrelled” negative attack on a first time relatively unknown candidate that really doesn’t fit the demographic for that district, I’d say he might have some problems. How’s that?
Comment by Jaded Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 10:36 am
Publius…Here’s the problem with a winning Rock Island turnout scenario. Normally a democrat expects to come out of Rock Island County with a 10,000 vote plurality. However, in 1994 Netsch lost Rock Island County by 12,663 and Quinn lost to Ryan by 10, 692. Evans carried Rock Island County by 6,047, beating a GOP candidate who spent a total of $15,000. In 2010, Hare’s GOP opponent will spend nearly a million dollars. I don’t see Hare coming out of Rock Island with nearly the plurality necessary to offset losses in the rural counties. In addition, in this off year election, the Springfield and Decatur democrat minority voters will not turnout in numbers to justify the 17th District’s democratic 57% 2008 Obama number, but rather, more like the 51% 2004 Kerry numbers. All in all, this is a tough race for even a well run Congressional Campaign, which Hare, unfortunately, isn’t running.
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 10:53 am
I live in the 10th CD, so I know that Dold and Seals are pro-choice. Dold supports banning partial-birth abortion, but Seals opposes the ban. Dold supports requiring minors, who want abortions, to notify a parent, but Seals opposes that requirement.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:01 am
Publius, RI County’s organization ain’t what it used to be. Actually, it just ain’t.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:03 am
On a side note, I saw more bloody political attack ad’s back to back last night then I recall ever seeing before.
I wonder if there are more dollars being spent on political ad’s across all the races this year then in the past…..
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:05 am
I wonder how these Congressional races will impact upon Thomas Kilbride’s retention race for the state supreme court. If Rock Island cannot deliver for Hare, Kilbride (a RI resident) may also be in trouble.
Comment by Honest Abe Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:10 am
If someone is going to say any of previously advertised Hultgren side of polls are anywhere near to real (maybe they are not), then certainly Foster seems to be picking up the momentum to win.
Since the Hill poll date, Foster got 3 major news paper endorsements and Hultgren got pounded on air wave and mails. Not to mention the huge difference in fundraising records between two.
Comment by Kent Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:37 am
“the Dems drew this SNAKE-like district to keep him in office”
Yes, it’s one of the most ridiculously gerrymandered ever — obviously an attempt to squeeze the Quad Cities, Quincy and Decatur into the same district. I know the 17th runs through Springfield but it must be only a few blocks wide at that point, blink and you miss the campaign signs
Comment by Secret Square Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 12:26 pm
Hare is his own worse enemy. He’s made no allies besides labor unions and disaffected Democrats. While voters liked Lane Evans they dislike Phil Hare. If Hare can’t beat an unemployed former pizza joint owner how the hell is he going to hold this seat for 20 years. In his short shelf-life Hare has proven to be highly partisan, ego driven and incredibly vulnerable.
Comment by RandyLong Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 1:00 pm
While watching the news last night, a Dan Seals ad aired. My wife, not the political geek I am, made the observation that Dan Seals’ speaking voice had an uncanny resemblance to the character Kenneth on the “30 Rock” program. Listen for yourself. Maybe Seals should use someone else to voice his ads….
Comment by Jake from Elwood Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 3:02 pm
I am waiting for the Hare today, gone tomorow ad’s
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Oct 20, 10 @ 11:49 pm