Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

* UPDATED x1 * Question of the day

Posted in:

Illinois
YouTube

* Independent gubernatorial candidate Scott Lee Cohen has finally filed his pre-election report (almost a week late). It shows he loaned his campaign another $2.1 million. By my figuring, Cohen has loaned or given his campaign over $5.8 million since the summer of 2009.

* The Question: How well do you think Cohen will do next Tuesday? And explain, please.

*** UPDATE *** Bonus question: Rate Scott Lee Cohen’s new TV ad…

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 12:57 pm

Comments

He’ll have paid about $29/vote by my estimation.

I’m not sure how he figures he’s getting $6M of value with this stunt.

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:00 pm
My crystal ball says 6.327 percent of the vote for Cohen. He easily finishes third.

Rich “Whitey” Whitney finishes last with 4.122 percent of the vote.

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:04 pm
Agreed. I will be surprised if he breaks 5%. I only have to assume that running for office is a bit like an addiction. Once hooked you will place your entire future on the line. I see no benefit to come out of this for Cohen.

Comment by American Made Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:05 pm
It’s difficult to predict but I think he’ll get around 7%. Folks are disgusted with the two major candidates and might be tempted to default to the next best known name on the ballot. Some voters also seem feel that Cohen is some kind of sympathetic figure although for the life of me I don’t understand why.

Comment by Stones Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:06 pm
I think he may get over 10% given the extent of his direct mail campaign alone.

He is the anti-elite candidate and i think he will surprise everyone, especially smug pundits.

Comment by Realist Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:09 pm
The fact that this idiot would spend so much money to so little effect is astonishing. The fact that Democrats voted him to be the GovernorLite astonishes me even more.

Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Realist-

Nothing says anti-elite quite like abusing your wife and trying to Ginsu a hooker.

Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Cohen should get around 4%, he is seen as the “other” guy candidate, and most voters don’t know his background… Crazy way to spend money, in my book.

Comment by VoterUSA Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Oh, I forgot, less than 5%. And that much if he got most of his support via early voting. I think voters are going to break for the two major parties in a big way when they realize the results of the election may actually be there own vote.

Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Cohen Surprises and pulls down 11% of the Vote, Brady still wins by 1% point.

Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:12 pm
I got 3 mailers in one day. His advisers ought to be arrested for theft.

Comment by blogman Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:12 pm
I think that SLC finishes third, behind Brady and Quinn in that order, with somewhere between 3-5% of the vote, with the most likely amount being 4%. Whitney finished 4th with around 2-4%.

Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:12 pm
Sorry for leaving off my explanation.

Cohen gets votes for his persistent use of mailers to seemingly everyone. My mom got three in one week. This puts him in the mailbox with legislative candidates and makes him seem legitimate.

He picks up some votes for being “not a career politician” and for not being Quinn or Brady (who have been pummeling each other with negative ads). He has had some radio and a little TV that I’ve heard and seen. Again, this makes him seem to the casual voter like a real candidate.

Whitney sinks down closer to the level of actual Green Party support. He did well in 2006 as a protest candidate against Blagojevich (corrupt) and Topinka (victim of Blago’s negative ads). But no one (except Whitney) thought they were really voting for the Greens.

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:14 pm
Scott Lee Cohen will do just well enough to keep Pat Quinn from winning. Which, let’s face it, is Cohen’s real goal - payback for Quinn’s pushing him off the Democratic ticket.

Comment by QRBNST Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:14 pm
isn’t it funny that the guy quinn didn’t want on the ballot, is the guy who might have saved it for him? Not to mention ad SLC $$ to Quinn’s take and they would be far ahead in the money game.

looks like this one came back to bite them.

Comment by todd Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:18 pm
If Rich Whitney spent $5.8 million he’d be running neck and neck with Brady. What a shame.

Cohen will finish 4th. Any thinking voter who chooses a 3rd party candidate will vote for Whitney or Green. Most nonthinking voters will stick with the big boy parties. It’s too bad much of the newsmedia isn’t covering the Cohen Clown Show with as much effort as they are covering Rahm’s dining habits.

A steroid-abusing, girlfriend assaulting, child support deadbeat pawnbroker has $5.8 million to blow on a vanity campaign. You know what they say about a fool and his money.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:22 pm
why would he continue to loan himself money when he knows he can’t win …

Comment by ? Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:26 pm
In my area of Springfield, SLC has sent two mailers in the last week. Someone is going to wake up next Wens. morning and wished they had gone after this guy.

Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:27 pm
I hear lots of tavern talk about “That guy from Chicago who is not a career politician.” I think the mailers are working. Nobody know who he is, but the message is what they want to hear. I say he surprises and gets 6%. Tough for Quinn.

Comment by Way Way Down Here Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:27 pm
7 to 9 percent.
Early to bed
Early to rise
Work like heck
ADVERTISE

Comment by gg Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:31 pm
5.12%

Comment by Jechislo Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:33 pm
Less than 5%. The contest between the parties, both within Illinois and nationwide, is too important and dramatic for an independent outlier like Cohen to break through. Cohen might have done very well if a Republican landslide seemed assured, and voters felt their individual ballots were less decisive. This is anything but the case now, as the break in the final days appears to be going for the Democrats.

Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:33 pm
I think he will get mid to high single digits but 10-12 is not out of the question because his advertising has been pretty visible and extensive. Also people will buy the job fairs thing during times like this because they won’t delve into whether the fairs offer real jobs and are just a stunt or not.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:33 pm
8% for Cohen, all out of Quinn’s side, creating a win for Brady. I haven’t seen the mailers, but Cohen’s signs are very well designed and they are EVERYWHERE.

Comment by Thomas Westgard Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:33 pm
Is campaign debt dischargeable in bankruptcy?

Comment by hisgirlfriday Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:36 pm
Thomas- Don’t think it will “create” a win for Brady. What I think, and most polls seem to indicate, is that voters who are angry with Quinn will end up voting for SLC instead of flooding over to Brady. That way it’s partially nullifying the anti-incumbent anger on the Democratic side by only removing votes from Quinn and not adding those to Brady.

There’s a reason polls with SLC on them have Quinn doing much better.

As far as SLC goes, I’m thinking 7-9%. Heavy advertisements and everything, along with party anger will cause more people than expected. But this is just a guess.

Comment by MattM Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:37 pm
The debt it to himself, so unless he got outside personal loans and then loaned the money to the campaign (unlikely) it is still his own money he is out.

As for a prediction, 5% I suspect the Chicago media is going to turn on him hard in the last week. Just a gut feeling, no data to back that up

Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:40 pm
He’s not out from the debt, he’s out of tax payments. Bad debt is a deduction, and deductions can be favorable to people doing lots of business in cash and therefore subject to periodic scrutiny from the IRS.

Comment by Dirt Digger Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:41 pm
Since he loaned it to himself he does not have to pay it back. That is the vendors are probably being paid. Direct Mail is usually paid up front. He can pay himself back if he raises donations enough to cover the debt but that seems unlikely. He can write off the debt and not pay income taxes next year like Brady.

Comment by American Made Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:44 pm
Not so sure if you could write this debt off, also it is way different than a business loss.

Otherwise to do any investment you would have people giving themselves (or entities that benefit them) loans

Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:49 pm
I predict just under 5% — certainly not what one would expect after $5.8 million. Two factors go into the prediction. 1) There are a bunch of people who are dissatisfied with both Quinn and Brady, and this was a year when a well-funded independent could potentially break into double digits in Illinois. 2) However, given who SLC is, and his baggage, he will not meet potential. Moreover, his campaign is doing a lousy job targeting. I’m a triple-D (actually, a solid D voter since 1986), and regularly get SLC mailers. He doesn’t get that vote, and shouldn’t be wasting money on strong partisans.

Comment by the Other Anonymous Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:52 pm
The voters with anti-establishment feelings may well go with Cohen…and he could get upwards of ten percent of the vote, making him the new Rich Whitney. I think most of the ten percent are voters who might otherwise vote Republican, so in the end he hurts Brady more than Quinn. Still its a two point race at the top.

Comment by Deep South Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 1:59 pm
My bet is he cracks 10% and maybe goes a bit higher. Most of this comes out of the Quinn side of the ledger. The combination of positive radio, tv and mailers plus the fact no one has spent any bucks to show the voters who he really is leaves a lot of disgruntled voters thinking he is a viable choice.

My mind keeps going back the the meeting he had with Madigan after the primary and wondering what was said that would motivate this guy to spend this much money on the race.

Comment by Bluefish Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:09 pm
SLC gets 6.2% of the vote.

And, I look into the possibility of becoming a pawnbroker, because clearly they make much more than me!

Comment by Wally Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:12 pm
I’m assuming that b/c the state gov’t is so messed up and Quinn and Brady are weak candidates that the field of other options (Cohen, Whitney, Green and write-ins) will get a larger percent of the vote than Whitney got in 2006.

So, somewhere between 11-16% of the vote will be split between the other options.

Cohen will get 5-9%.

Whitney will get 3.5-7%.

None of the others will break 2.5%.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:14 pm
I received two Brady mailers today. Anyhow, I think Cohen will draw the disgruntled that are not as conservative as Brady and those that are upset with both sides. Cohen would appeal to those with similar backgrounds. I predict he will get about 5% and mostly from Brady not Quinn.

Comment by waitress practicing politics... Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:19 pm
SLC gets 7.5% better than he should get

I have another theory, that ironically is very similar to my theory on RRB’s behavior. SLC spends that much money to “rehabilitate” his reputation so that he can say he was an honest hard working hero in the eyes of his son. Not a quitter.

If I’m the son in 15 years, I am thinking I would rather have that extra $5 mil in dad’s bank account than voters having any opinion of the guy at all.

What an ego trip.

Comment by siriusly Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:21 pm
=I got 3 mailers in one day. His advisers ought to be arrested for theft.=

We got 6 in one day and it’s not the first time his mail came to our house.

Comment by Who Cares Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:31 pm
Cohen will get 5-10% maybe a bit more. People who don’t like Quinn or Brady will go for Cohen. He gets the votes Whitney got last time.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:38 pm
I’m thinking ~6%.

waitress practicing politics: You have my new favorite nickname on this blog.

Comment by Small Town Liberal Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:38 pm
Q: How well do you think Cohen will do next Tuesday?

A: 4%. But on the bright side, among politicos, the epithet “Scott Lee Cohen” will provoke giggles — and the occasional spit-take — for decades to come.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:41 pm
I’d rate his ad as a D+, 6/10. Did he take speech lessons from Jim Laski? Close your eyes and listen: they could be audio twins.

Of course, while I’ve heard Laski on the radio, I haven’t seen him since his release from prison. Is it possible he gained some weight, dyed his hair and assumed Scott Lee Cohen’s identity as part of an evil plot to regain elected office?

The tinfoil hat might be on a bit too tight today, but the voice resemblance is uncanny.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:43 pm
Cohen’s ad will stand out because it doesn’t have scary music, an ominous narrator of 30 lines of text flying all over the screen. Other than that it doesn’t do much. I’ll give it a C just because it’s different.

Comment by We Todd Did Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:44 pm
That ad makes SLC look normal. So it’s an 8.

Maybe, just maybe though, it’s time for the same investigative media, who ignored SLC in the primary, and are always after both Quinn and Brady for their specific “plans” to cut state government spending, to ask for details about SLC’s “plan” and publish his response.

If media asks some questions in the next several days and exposes his sham jobs fairs SLC gets 6-7%. If not, look for him to garner 9-10%.

And Bluefish is right. There’s more to his candidacy than meets the eye. Just wish we knew what it is.

Comment by Responsa Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 2:55 pm
I see SLC getting double digits. Unlike most who post her SLC isn’t that well known and I believe people will vote for anyone other than Quinn or Brady. I don’t see Whitney doing much over 4 or 5%.

Actually I thought the ad was pretty good….if you didn’t already know about the other mud throwing. No goofy voice and no blasting visuals. Just a business man asking for our vote.

Comment by Justice Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:08 pm
Sorry, but I think SLC scores close to 10 percent. His ads and signs are everywhere, and a lot of people are not following him closely. As Rich notes, most of the MSM don’t mention his unsavory history in their stories. So if you missed it the first time, you might not know.

Comment by soccermom Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:16 pm
If you can’t get your D-2 in on time which had virtually no money on it besides what you loaned yourself how in the heck can you manage the states finances?

Comment by OneMan Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:30 pm
Pre-election report? Not!

What ISBE is showing as Cohen’s pre-election report actually is marked as an “amendment” on the PDF.

And it’s showing as filed on paper, when all reports over $10K need to be filed electronically.

The PDF shows a fax time and date of “2:23 PM” today. ISBE indicates a paper receipt at “9:55 AM” today. (Go figure.) Yet in an October 11th letter to political committees, ISBE’s director of campaign disclosure, Sharon Steward, wrote “Faxed reports will not be accepted”. (Go figure some more.)

Then there’s the electronic “amendment” Cohen subsequently filed at 10:27 AM today that basically restates the same figures as the no-no paper submittal.

But the real issue is this: $2,132,734.55 in total receipts for the period — and ZERO expenditures!

Hello? Hello?

Comment by Scott Summers Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:36 pm
===But the real issue is this: $2,132,734.55 in total receipts for the period — and ZERO expenditures!===

Wrong.

The only expenditures that have to be disclosed are transfers out and loans made by the committee.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 3:42 pm
I actually think it is a decent commercial…..for SLC.

Comment by Who Cares Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 4:01 pm
I am sick of all the commercials put out by Quinn and Brady… I’m seriously considering to vote for Cohen

Comment by Jerry Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 4:02 pm
I can’t see him getting more than 5%.

Forget about his personal history, anyone spending almost 6 million of his own money on a race he can’t possibly win doesn’t strike me as too intelligent. Also sounds like not many people have donated to his campaign, another show of lack of support.

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 4:13 pm
A vote for Scott Lee Cohen is STILL a vote for a Democrat candidate - running independent or not. I stick with my 6% figure which was the prediction of the outcome for the governor election.

Comment by Segatari Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 4:25 pm
I have no idea what percentage he’ll get. But it will be nowhere close to a Perot-like 20%.

Given that, why’s he doing it? What’s going on here? The first time around, Perot wanted to beat Bush I, because he hated him. But he had the money to make mischief. The second time around, it was all ego, but he still had loads of money and the free press to boot.

Cohen’s money cannot be coming from profits from the pawnshops. It’s just not possible.

I’ve worked much of my adult life in the area of the Cohen pawnshop behind CBOT. I’m familiar with it. His clients are drunks, hookers, junkies and chain-snatchers. My trader/ lawyer buddies in the neighborhood all say the same thing.

There’s no way has generated the kind of cash to pump $6 million into a vanity campaign. Not even in the ballpark.

He must have serious income from other sources. I have a few guesses from where.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 6:06 pm
word, Cohen said he made most of his real money from the real estate boom.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 6:08 pm
I don’t understand the money either. I’m looking forward to the interview he gives after the election where he explains his candidacy. Something MJM said to get him to drop from the ticket? Some other mania? Whatever it is, it’s perfect for a movie plot. Maybe that’s the funding…future royalties?

New billboard on I-55 coming into the city today. Plenty of signs up in Du Page cty (why?). I figure 8%, agree with prior posters that this comes largely out of Whitney’s hide. Whitney 1% maybe?

Comment by Park Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 6:45 pm
Rich, I guess it’s possible, but I can’t figure the ROI.

I don’t believe he could made so much to spend nearly $6 million on a vanity campaign without being certifiable.

I don’t know if he’s certifiable. But if he is, the folks that he has hired and is paying have the ethics of a snake.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 8:19 pm